Taxation reduces smoking but may not reduce smoking disparities in youth

Summary and Concluding Remarks: Patterns of Birth Cohort‒Specific Smoking Histories

The Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) Lung Working Group age-period-cohort methodology to study smoking patterns can be applied to tackle important issues in tobacco control and public health. This paper summarizes the analyses of smoking patterns in the U.S. by race/ethnicity, educational attainment, and family income and for each of the 50 U.S. states using the CISNET Lung Working Group age-period-cohort approach. We describe how decision makers, policy advocates, and researchers can use the sociodemographic analyses in this supplement to project state smoking trends and develop effective state-level tobacco control strategies. The all-cause mortality RR estimates associated with smoking for U.S. race/ethnicity and education groups are also discussed in the context of research that measures and evaluates health disparities. Finally, the application of the CISNET Lung Working Group age-period-cohort methodology to Brazil is reviewed with a view to how the same types of analyses can be applied to other low- and middle-income countries.

Patterns of Birth Cohort‒Specific Smoking Histories by Race and Ethnicity in the U.S

INTRODUCTION

U.S. smoking prevalence varies greatly by race/ethnicity. However, little is known about how smoking initiation, cessation, and intensity vary by birth cohort and race/ethnicity.

METHODS

Adult smoking data were obtained from the 1978-2018 National Health Interview Surveys. Age‒period‒cohort models with constrained natural splines were developed to estimate historical smoking patterns among non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, non-Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islander, and non-Hispanic American Indian and Alaskan Native individuals. Annual smoking prevalence and probabilities of smoking initiation, cessation, and intensity by age, year, gender, and race/ethnicity were estimated for the 1900 to 2000 birth cohorts. Analysis was conducted in 2020-2021.

RESULTS

Smoking initiation probabilities were highest for the American Indian and Alaskan Native population, second highest among the non-Hispanic White population, and lowest among Asian and Pacific Islander and Hispanic populations across birth cohorts. Historically, initiation probabilities among non-Hispanic Black populations were comparable with those among non-Hispanic White populations but have decreased since the 1970 birth cohort. Cessation probabilities were lowest among American Indian and Alaskan Native and non-Hispanic Black populations and highest among non-Hispanic White and Asian and Pacific Islander populations across cohorts and ages. Initiation and cessation probabilities produce observed patterns of smoking where prevalence among American Indian and Alaskan Native populations is highest across all ages and cohorts. Across cohorts, smoking prevalence among non-Hispanic Black populations, particularly males, is lower than among non-Hispanic White populations at younger ages but higher at older ages.

CONCLUSIONS

There are important and persistent racial/ethnic differences in smoking prevalence, initiation, cessation, and intensity across U.S. birth cohorts. Targeted interventions should address widening smoking disparities by race/ethnicity, particularly for American Indian and Alaskan Native and non-Hispanic Black populations.

The association between smoking behaviors and prices and taxes per cigarette pack in the United States from 2000 through 2019

OBJECTIVE

The conclusions on how tax and price increases affect smoking behaviors are mixed. This work is devoted to re-evaluating the relationship between cigarette prices and taxes and smoking behaviors.

METHODS

Using 2000-2019 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data, we employed linear mixed-effect models to re-examine the impact of cigarette prices and taxes on smoking prevalence and the proportion of current smokers having tried to quit smoking in the past 12 months. All the analyses were conducted for the general population, then by age group, gender, race/ethnicity, and income level.

RESULTS

The results indicate that higher cigarette prices and taxes were associated with a decrease in smoking prevalence and an increased likelihood of quitting smoking. Cigarette tax and price increases produced the most powerful impact on the smoking prevalence of 18- to 24-year-olds. The estimates also show that males tended to be more price-sensitive than females. Raising cigarette prices and taxes was estimated to be more effective in reducing the smoking prevalence among non-Hispanic Blacks and Hispanics when compared to non-Hispanic whites. Cigarette price and tax changes were likely to have a smaller effect on individuals with annual income under $25,000 relative to individuals with higher income levels.

CONCLUSIONS

Increases in cigarette prices and taxes are significantly associated with a reduction in smoking prevalence and an increased likelihood of quitting smoking among adults across different demographic and socioeconomic groups. However, as cigarette price and tax changes disproportionately affect low-income individuals, raising cigarette prices and taxes may deepen income disparities.

Tobacco 21 laws may reduce smoking and tobacco-related health disparities among youth in the U.S

The goal of our study is to understand the impact of Tobacco 21 (T21) laws on youth smoking and health equity. We conducted modified Poisson regression models using 2014-2019 Monitoring the Future data to measure the impact of attending school in a county 100% covered by a T21 law versus counties with <100% T21 coverage on past 30-day smoking participation (n = 262,632), first cigarette smoking initiation (n = 189,698), and daily smoking initiation among 8th, 10th, and 12th graders (n = 214,496), separately. Additive interactions were tested between T21 coverage and sex, race/ethnicity, parental education, and college plans. T21 coverage was associated with a lower likelihood of smoking participation among 12th graders. T21 coverage was most strongly associated with a lower likelihood of smoking participation among: Hispanic and NH (Non-Hispanic) Other/Multiracial individuals; respondents with parents who had less than a college education; and respondents who were not definitely planning on attending college. T21 laws were associated with a lower likelihood of smoking participation among 12th graders. T21 policies were most impactful for individuals disproportionately impacted by tobacco, indicating T21 laws might help reduce tobacco-related health disparities.

Cigarette Pack Price and Its Within-Person Association With Smoking Initiation, Smoking Progression, and Disparities among Young Adults

BACKGROUND

There is a dearth of research on within-person relationships between tobacco price and cigarette smoking initiation and progression in young adulthood. This project examines the within-person association between cigarette pack price and smoking initiation and progression between age 18 and 21/22, focusing on differences across subgroups.

METHODS

Data came from the longitudinal Monitoring the Future (MTF) project. MTF examines drug use behaviors with nationally representative samples of 12th graders annually. Subsamples of 12th graders are annually selected and followed longitudinally. Among 12th graders from baseline years 2000-2014, we examined past 30-day cigarette smoking initiation among baseline never smokers (N = 15 280) and progression to daily smoking among youth who were not daily smokers at baseline (N = 26 998). We used hierarchical logistic regression and interaction terms to assess differences across sex, race/ethnicity, and parental education.

RESULTS

The within-person relationship between pack price and smoking indicated that a one-dollar increase in pack price corresponded with a 72% decrease in the odds of initiation (AOR = 0.28, 95% CI = 0.18, 0.44) and 70% decrease in the odds of progression to daily smoking (AOR = 0.30, 95% CI = 0.21, 0.44). There was a linear age trend for both smoking initiation and progression. There were no statistically significant interactions between price and demographics, making it difficult to disentangle differences across subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

Exposure to increased cigarette prices during young adulthood was associated with lower odds of cigarette smoking initiation and progression. Additional policies and programs beyond cigarettes prices could help reduce tobacco-related disparities in smoking initiation and progression among young adults.

IMPLICATIONS

There is a strong, within-person relationship between cigarette prices and smoking initiation and progression during the transition to young adulthood: higher prices are associated with decreased odds of both initiation and progression. Cigarette taxation can help to prevent smoking initiation and progression among youth, but it is less clear how taxes are associated with disparities in smoking experienced by certain subgroups. We could not draw definitive conclusions about the impact of cigarette prices on tobacco-related disparities. Tobacco taxes should be increased on a regular basis to ensure young adults experience within-person increases in prices, and complementary programs geared toward reducing tobacco-related disparities among young adults should be promoted.

Tobacco Taxation and Its Prospective Impact on Disparities in Smoking Initiation and Progression Among Young Adults

PURPOSE

Limited research exists on tobacco taxes and cigarette smoking initiation and progression, particularly across different sociodemographic groups in young adulthood. This project examines how cigarette pack price in late adolescence prospectively relates to smoking initiation and progression by 21 years of age, focusing on differences across demographics.

METHODS

Data are from the longitudinal Monitoring the Future project (2001-2017). Monitoring the Future examines drug use behaviors with nationally representative samples of 12th graders annually. Subsamples of 12th graders are followed up longitudinally. We examined past 30-day cigarette smoking among baseline never smokers (N = 9,232) and daily smoking among youths who were not daily cigarette smokers at baseline (N = 15,141). Using logistic regression, we examined state-level cigarette pack price at a modal age of 18 years and smoking at follow-up ages 19-20 years; we used interaction terms to assess differences across sociodemographic groups (by gender, race/ethnicity, and parental education).

RESULTS

For each dollar increase in price at baseline, the odds of initiation by age 19-20 years were reduced by 12% (adjusted odds ratio = .88; 95% confidence interval = .78, .99) and the odds of progression to daily smoking were reduced by 16% (adjusted odds ratio = .84; 95% confidence interval = .76, .92). After adjusting for multiple testing, for both outcomes there were no statistically significant interactions between price and demographics.

CONCLUSIONS

Cigarette prices in late adolescence were associated with a prospective reduction in cigarette smoking initiation and progression among young adults, with limited differences across sociodemographic characteristics. Higher cigarette prices can prevent smoking initiation and progression; however, complementary interventions are needed to reduce initiation and progression among subgroups disproportionately affected by tobacco.