Modelling the impact of plain packaging of tobacco products on cardiovascular disease in Argentina

Impacto sanitario de la prohibición total de publicidades de tabaco en argentina

Health impact of the total ban on advertising of tobacco productsThe objective was to estimate the health impact of the total ban on advertising of tobacco products in terms of avoided cardiovascular events in those over 35 years of age in Argentina.The Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model (CVDPM) was used, which is a Markov simulation model used to represent and project mortality and morbidity due to cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the population aged 35 or over. It constitutes a demographic-epidemiological model, which represents the population between 35 and 95 years of age and uses a logistic regression model based on the Framingham equation to estimate the annual incidence of cardiovascular disease. We assumed that implementing a complete ban on the advertising of tobacco products would lead to a 9% reduction in tobacco consumption.The complete ban on advertising could prevent 15,164 deaths over a period of 10 years, of which 2610 would be the result of coronary heart disease and 747 due to stroke. These reductions would mean an annual decrease of 0.46% of total deaths, 0.60% of deaths from coronary heart disease and 0.33% in deaths from stroke. In addition, during the same period, it would avoid 6630 acute myocardial infarctions and 2851 strokes (reductions of 1.35% and 0.40%, respectively).We hope that these findings might contribute to the strengthening of sanitary tobacco control policies in Argentina based on the remarkable benefits of banning the advertising of tobacco products in full and in line with current global recommendations.