The abundance and persistence of Caprinae populations

Stable or growing populations may go extinct when their sizes cannot withstand large swings in temporal variation and stochastic forces. Hence, the minimum abundance threshold defining when populations can persist without human intervention forms a key conservation parameter. We identify this threshold for many populations of Caprinae, typically threatened species lacking demographic data. Doing so helps triage conservation and management actions for threatened or harvested populations. Methodologically, we used population projection matrices and simulations, with starting abundance, recruitment, and adult female survival predicting future abundance, growth rate (λ), and population trend. We incorporated mean demographic rates representative of Caprinae populations and corresponding variances from desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis nelsoni), as a proxy for Caprinae sharing similar life histories. We found a population’s minimum abundance resulting in ≤ 0.01 chance of quasi-extinction (QE; population ≤ 5 adult females) in 10 years and ≤ 0.10 QE in 30 years as 50 adult females, or 70 were translocation (removals) pursued. Discovering the threshold required 3 demographic parameters. We show, however, that monitoring populations’ relationships to this threshold requires only abundance and recruitment data. This applied approach avoids the logistical and cost hurdles in measuring female survival, making assays of population persistence more practical.

Sexual maturity, factors affecting the breeding season and breeding in consecutive seasons in populations of overabundant Victorian koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus)

It is important to have knowledge of basic population parameters to understand how these vary geographically and temporally and how they contribute to population dynamics. This paper investigates three of these parameters in Victorian koala populations: sexual maturity, aspects of the breeding season, and the continuity of individuals’ breeding. The investigation was carried out in koalas of known-age in two free-living (Redbill Creek on French Island and Brisbane Ranges) and one semi-captive (the Koala Conservation Centre on Phillip Island) population as well as koalas of unknown age in four Victorian populations of overabundant koalas: Mt Eccles and Framlingham in south-west Victoria, French Island in Western Port and Snake Island in south Gippsland. At sexual maturity, female koalas had a mean age (±95% confidence interval) of 24.4 months (23.5–25.3 months), a mean head length of 125 mm (124–127 mm) and a mean body mass of 6.6 kg (6.3–6.8 kg). Only 7.4% of independent females (of unknown age) were carrying young when they weighed less than 6 kg. The breeding season was more restricted in the south-west populations. At Framlingham and Mt Eccles 85% and 91% of births, respectively, occurred between December and March. At Snake and French Islands only 46% and 53% of births, respectively, were recorded in the same period. In the Chlamydia-free population (Red Bill Creek) none of the koalas that were monitored stopped breeding and then resumed breeding in a subsequent season whereas many females from Chlamydia-infected populations (Brisbane Ranges and the Koala Conservation Centre) did so. This variation in reproductive patterns is likely to make an important contribution to the variation in the demography observed in different koala populations.

Mortality patterns in a protected population of isards (Rupicapra pyrenaica)

We considered variation in mortality over 8 years in a protected population of isards (Pyrenean chamois; Rupicapra pyrenaica) within the Pyrenean National Park using monthly systematic skull collection. After testing the stationary-type pattern of estimates of mortality of the living population, we (i) analysed the composition of a sample of dead animals in terms of age and sex; (ii) investigated temporal patterns of mortality and their relationship with winter severity; (iii) tested for sexual differences in mortality rates in this weakly sexually dimorphic species. Of 588 animals found dead from natural causes, 114 were kids (19.4%). No statistical differences existed in the composition of the sample according to sex (the ratio of males to females was 1/1.13). Age at death did not differ significantly between the sexes or among years. A positive relationship was found between winter severity (expressed as cumulative snowfall) and mortality rates for both kids and adults. During mild winters, the mortality rate was low (a mean of 38.4 carcasses per year versus 124 per year in severe winters) and was concentrated on the oldest animals, mainly males. Based on 303 skulls more than 1 year old, annual survivorship curves revealed a period of low mortality (prime age) extending to 9 and 10 years of age for males and females, respectively, followed by a period of increasing mortality (senescence). Our results are commented on in light of recent publications on the demography of populations of large herbivores.

Temporal Variation in Fitness Components and Population Dynamics of Large Herbivores

▪ Abstract  In large-herbivore populations, environmental variation and density dependence co-occur and have similar effects on various fitness components. Our review aims to quantify the temporal variability of fitness components and examine how that variability affects changes in population growth rates. Regardless of the source of variation, adult female survival shows little year-to-year variation [coefficient of variation (CV <10%)], fecundity of prime-aged females and yearling survival rates show moderate year-to-year variation (CV <20%), and juvenile survival and fecundity of young females show strong variation (CV >30%). Old females show senescence in both survival and reproduction. These patterns of variation are independent of differences in body mass, taxonomic group, and ecological conditions. Differences in levels of maternal care may fine-tune the temporal variation of early survival. The immature stage, despite a low relative impact on population growth rate compared with the adult stage, may be the critical component of population dynamics of large herbivores. Observed differences in temporal variation may be more important than estimated relative sensitivity or elasticity in determining the relative demographic impact of various fitness components.