Readmission Prediction for Patients with Heterogeneous Medical History: A Trajectory-Based Deep Learning Approach

Examining Disease Multimorbidity in U.S. Hospital Visits Before and During COVID-19 Pandemic: A Graph Analytics Approach

Enduring effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on healthcare systems can be preempted by identifying patterns in diseases recorded in hospital visits over time. Disease multimorbidity or simultaneous occurrence of multiple diseases is a growing global public health challenge as populations age and long-term conditions become more prevalent. We propose a graph analytics framework for analyzing disease multimorbidity in hospital visits. Within the framework, we propose a graph model to explain multimorbidity as a function of prevalence, category, and chronic nature of the underlying disease. We apply our model to examine and compare multimorbidity patterns in public hospitals in Arizona, U.S., during five six-month time periods before and during the pandemic. We observe that while multimorbidity increased by 34.26% and 41.04% during peak pandemic for mental disorders and respiratory disorders respectively, the gradients for endocrine diseases and circulatory disorders were not significant. Multimorbidity for acute conditions is observed to be decreasing during the pandemic while multimorbidity for chronic conditions remains unchanged. Our graph analytics framework provides guidelines for empirical analysis of disease multimorbidity using electronic health records. The patterns identified using our proposed graph model informs future research and healthcare policy makers for pre-emptive decision making.

AI Models for Predicting Readmission of Pneumonia Patients within 30 Days after Discharge

A model with capability for precisely predicting readmission is a target being pursued worldwide. The objective of this study is to design predictive models using artificial intelligence methods and data retrieved from the National Health Insurance Research Database of Taiwan for identifying high-risk pneumonia patients with 30-day all-cause readmissions. An integrated genetic algorithm (GA) and support vector machine (SVM), namely IGS, were used to design predictive models optimized with three objective functions. In IGS, GA was used for selecting salient features and optimal SVM parameters, while SVM was used for constructing the models. For comparison, logistic regression (LR) and deep neural network (DNN) were also applied for model construction. The IGS model with AUC used as the objective function achieved an accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and area under ROC curve (AUC) of 70.11%, 73.46%, 69.26%, and 0.7758, respectively, outperforming the models designed with LR (65.77%, 78.44%, 62.54%, and 0.7689, respectively) and DNN (61.50%, 79.34%, 56.95%, and 0.7547, respectively), as well as previously reported models constructed using thedata of electronic health records with an AUC of 0.71–0.74. It can be used for automatically detecting pneumonia patients with a risk of all-cause readmissions within 30 days after discharge so as to administer suitable interventions to reduce readmission and healthcare costs.