Multiset Statistics for Gene Set Analysis

Using Baidu Index Data to Improve Chickenpox Surveillance in Yunnan, China: Infodemiology Study

BACKGROUND

Chickenpox is an old but easily neglected infectious disease. Although chickenpox is preventable by vaccines, vaccine breakthroughs often occur, and the chickenpox epidemic is on the rise. Chickenpox is not included in the list of regulated communicable diseases that must be reported and controlled by public and health departments; therefore, it is crucial to rapidly identify and report varicella outbreaks during the early stages. The Baidu index (BDI) can supplement the traditional surveillance system for infectious diseases, such as brucellosis and dengue, in China. The number of reported chickenpox cases and internet search data also showed a similar trend. BDI can be a useful tool to display the outbreak of infectious diseases.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to develop an efficient disease surveillance method that uses BDI to assist in traditional surveillance.

METHODS

Chickenpox incidence data (weekly from January 2017 to June 2021) reported by the Yunnan Province Center for Disease Control and Prevention were obtained to evaluate the relationship between the incidence of chickenpox and BDI. We applied a support vector machine regression (SVR) model and a multiple regression prediction model with BDI to predict the incidence of chickenpox. In addition, we used the SVR model to predict the number of chickenpox cases from June 2021 to the first week of April 2022.

RESULTS

The analysis showed that there was a close correlation between the weekly number of newly diagnosed cases and the BDI. In the search terms we collected, the highest Spearman correlation coefficient was 0.747. Most BDI search terms, such as "chickenpox," "chickenpox treatment," "treatment of chickenpox," "chickenpox symptoms," and "chickenpox virus," trend consistently. Some BDI search terms, such as "chickenpox pictures," "symptoms of chickenpox," "chickenpox vaccine," and "is chickenpox vaccine necessary," appeared earlier than the trend of "chickenpox virus." The 2 models were compared, the SVR model performed better in all the applied measurements: fitting effect, R²=0.9108, root mean square error (RMSE)=96.2995, and mean absolute error (MAE)=73.3988; and prediction effect, R²=0.548, RMSE=189.1807, and MAE=147.5412. In addition, we applied the SVR model to predict the number of reported cases weekly in Yunnan from June 2021 to April 2022 using the same period of the BDI. The results showed that the fluctuation of the time series from July 2021 to April 2022 was similar to that of the last year and a half with no change in the level of prevention and control.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings indicated that the BDI in Yunnan Province can predict the incidence of chickenpox in the same period. Thus, the BDI is a useful tool for monitoring the chickenpox epidemic and for complementing traditional monitoring systems.

Search trends and prediction of human brucellosis using Baidu index data from 2011 to 2018 in China

Reporting on brucellosis, a relatively rare infectious disease caused by Brucella, is often delayed or incomplete in traditional disease surveillance systems in China. Internet search engine data related to brucellosis can provide an economical and efficient complement to a conventional surveillance system because people tend to seek brucellosis-related health information from Baidu, the largest search engine in China. In this study, brucellosis incidence data reported by the CDC of China and Baidu index data were gathered to evaluate the relationship between them. We applied an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and an ARIMA model with Baidu search index data as the external variable (ARIMAX) to predict the incidence of brucellosis. The two models based on brucellosis incidence data were then compared, and the ARIMAX model performed better in all the measurements we applied. Our results illustrate that Baidu index data can enhance the traditional surveillance system to monitor and predict brucellosis epidemics in China.

Simultaneous Enrichment Analysis of all Possible Gene-sets: Unifying Self-Contained and Competitive Methods

Studying sets of genomic features is increasingly popular in genomics, proteomics and metabolomics since analyzing at set level not only creates a natural connection to biological knowledge but also offers more statistical power. Currently, there are two gene-set testing approaches, self-contained and competitive, both of which have their advantages and disadvantages, but neither offers the final solution. We introduce simultaneous enrichment analysis (SEA), a new approach for analysis of feature sets in genomics and other omics based on a new unified null hypothesis, which includes the self-contained and competitive null hypotheses as special cases. We employ closed testing using Simes tests to test this new hypothesis. For every feature set, the proportion of active features is estimated, and a confidence bound is provided. Also, for every unified null hypotheses, a \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{upgreek} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document} }{}$P$\end{document}-value is calculated, which is adjusted for family-wise error rate. SEA does not need to assume that the features are independent. Moreover, users are allowed to choose the feature set(s) of interest after observing the data. We develop a novel pipeline and apply it on RNA-seq data of dystrophin-deficient mdx mice, showcasing the flexibility of the method. Finally, the power properties of the method are evaluated through simulation studies.

Gene set selection via LASSO penalized regression (SLPR)

Gene set testing is an important bioinformatics technique that addresses the challenges of power, interpretation and replication. To better support the analysis of large and highly overlapping gene set collections, researchers have recently developed a number of multiset methods that jointly evaluate all gene sets in a collection to identify a parsimonious group of functionally independent sets. Unfortunately, current multiset methods all use binary indicators for gene and gene set activity and assume that a gene is active if any containing gene set is active. This simplistic model limits performance on many types of genomic data. To address this limitation, we developed gene set Selection via LASSO Penalized Regression (SLPR), a novel mapping of multiset gene set testing to penalized multiple linear regression. The SLPR method assumes a linear relationship between continuous measures of gene activity and the activity of all gene sets in the collection. As we demonstrate via simulation studies and the analysis of TCGA data using MSigDB gene sets, the SLPR method outperforms existing multiset methods when the true biological process is well approximated by continuous activity measures and a linear association between genes and gene sets.

Statistical Contributions to Bioinformatics: Design, Modeling, Structure Learning, and Integration

The advent of high-throughput multi-platform genomics technologies providing whole-genome molecular summaries of biological samples has revolutionalized biomedical research. These technologiees yield highly structured big data, whose analysis poses significant quantitative challenges. The field of Bioinformatics has emerged to deal with these challenges, and is comprised of many quantitative and biological scientists working together to effectively process these data and extract the treasure trove of information they contain. Statisticians, with their deep understanding of variability and uncertainty quantification, play a key role in these efforts. In this article, we attempt to summarize some of the key contributions of statisticians to bioinformatics, focusing on four areas: (1) experimental design and reproducibility, (2) preprocessing and feature extraction, (3) unified modeling, and (4) structure learning and integration. In each of these areas, we highlight some key contributions and try to elucidate the key statistical principles underlying these methods and approaches. Our goals are to demonstrate major ways in which statisticians have contributed to bioinformatics, encourage statisticians to get involved early in methods development as new technologies emerge, and to stimulate future methodological work based on the statistical principles elucidated in this article and utilizing all availble information to uncover new biological insights.

Self-Contained Statistical Analysis of Gene Sets

Microarrays are a powerful tool for studying differential gene expression. However, lists of many differentially expressed genes are often generated, and unraveling meaningful biological processes from the lists can be challenging. For this reason, investigators have sought to quantify the statistical probability of compiled gene sets rather than individual genes. The gene sets typically are organized around a biological theme or pathway. We compute correlations between different gene set tests and elect to use Fisher’s self-contained method for gene set analysis. We improve Fisher’s differential expression analysis of a gene set by limiting the p-value of an individual gene within the gene set to prevent a small percentage of genes from determining the statistical significance of the entire set. In addition, we also compute dependencies among genes within the set to determine which genes are statistically linked. The method is applied to T-ALL (T-lineage Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia) to identify differentially expressed gene sets between T-ALL and normal patients and T-ALL and AML (Acute Myeloid Leukemia) patients.

Statistical Methods in Integrative Genomics

Statistical methods in integrative genomics aim to answer important biology questions by jointly analyzing multiple types of genomic data (vertical integration) or aggregating the same type of data across multiple studies (horizontal integration). In this article, we introduce different types of genomic data and data resources, and then review statistical methods of integrative genomics, with emphasis on the motivation and rationale of these methods. We conclude with some summary points and future research directions.