Response to initial therapy of differentiated thyroid cancer predicts the long-term outcome better than classical risk stratification systems

The American Thyroid Association risk stratification and long-term outcomes of differentiated thyroid cancer: a 20-year follow-up of patients in Saudi Arabia

Background

Studies have reported differing factors associated with poor outcomes in patients with differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC). We aimed to describe our 20 years of experience in the management of thyroid cancer (TC) and identify predictors of treatment outcomes.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective review of medical records of patients with TC seen in the Thyroid Center at King Saud University Medical City (KSUMC) in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, between the years 2000 and 2020. Demographic and clinical data including pathological characteristics were collected. The American Thyroid Association (ATA) risk stratification was determined for all patients at the postoperative period as well as the response to therapy at the final follow-up visit.

Results

A total of 674 patients (mean age: 47.21 years) with TC, 571 (84.7%) of which were women, were included. There were 404 (60.0%) patients with ATA low risk, 127 (18.8%) with intermediate risk, and 143 (21.2%) with high-risk histology. Overall, 461 patients (68.4%) had an excellent response to treatment, 65 (9.6%) had an indeterminate response, 83 (12.3%) had a biochemical incomplete response, and 65 (9.6%) had a structural incomplete response. Patients who had an excellent response were mostly ATA low risk (n = 318 of 431, 68.1%), whereas 40 of 65 patients (61.5%) of those with ATA high-risk histology had a structural incomplete response to treatment. There were significantly more women who had an excellent response compared with men. Obesity, lymphovascular invasion, and size of the tumor were significant predictors of worse outcomes to therapy.

Conclusion

Tumor size, lymphovascular invasion, and obesity are strong predictors of a worse response to therapy among patients with TC. Patients with obesity should be carefully followed up regardless of their risk stratification in light of the recent compelling evidence associating obesity with thyroid cancer and its higher risk of a worse disease outcome. ATA risk stratification is well correlated with patient long-term outcomes.

Modified dynamic risk stratification system further predicts individual outcome in patients with intermediate-risk papillary thyroid cancer

OBJECTIVE

We assessed the contribution of initial treatment response to further refining prediction of individual outcomes in intermediate-risk papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) on the American Thyroid Association (ATA) risk stratification system. Dynamic risk stratification (DRS) as originally proposed by Tuttle et al. in 2010 was modified to also include serum antithyroglobulin antibodies (TgAb) as a surrogate marker of the likelihood of persistent disease, specifically in patients with thyroglobulin assay interference by TgAb.

METHODS

Three hundred and seventy-three patients with ATA intermediate-risk PTC were enrolled retrospectively upon reviewing medical records. Patients were followed at the National Cancer Institute in Bogota, Colombia after being treated with total thyroidectomy and I-131 therapy between 2009 and 2013. Best response to initial therapy was classified as excellent, indeterminate, biochemically incomplete or structurally incomplete. Final disease status after a median follow-up of 7.1 years was classified as no evidence of disease (NED), indeterminate, or persistent disease (either biochemically or structurally). The rate of recurrence was determined in excellent responders.

RESULTS

Excellent response was achieved by 164 patients (43.9%). At a median follow-up of 42 months, 19 (11.6%) had experienced recurrence. 87.4% of initially excellent responders available at the final checkpoint were NED, compared to 28% of those with biochemically or structurally incomplete response and to 60.2% of all ATA intermediate-risk PTC patients in our cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

Modified DRS further predicted individual outcomes in intermediate-risk PTC, potentially allowing ongoing management to be tailored accordingly.

Evaluating Disease Specific Survival Prediction of Risk Stratification and TNM Systems in Differentiated Thyroid Cancer

BACKGROUND

Many countries have national guidelines for the management of differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC), including a risk stratification system to predict recurrence of disease. Studies whether these guidelines could also have relevance, beyond their original design, in predicting survival are lacking. Additionally, no studies evaluated these international guidelines in the same population, nor compared them to the TNM system. Therefore, we investigated the prognostic value of six stratification systems employed by ten International guidelines, and the TNM system with respect to predicting disease specific survival (DSS).

METHODS

We retrospectively studied adult patients with DTC from a Dutch university hospital. Patients were classified using the risk classification described in the British, Dutch, French, Italian, Polish, Spanish, European Society of Medical Oncology, European Thyroid Association, and 2009 and 2015 American Thyroid Association (ATA) guidelines, and the latest TNM system. DSS was analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method, and the statistical model performance using the C-index, AIC, BIC and PVE.

RESULTS

We included 857 patients with DTC (79% PTC, 21% FTC). Median follow-up was 9 years, and 67 (7.8%) died due to DTC. The Dutch guideline had the worst statistical model performance, while the 2009 ATA/2014 British guideline had the best. However, the (adapted) TNM system outperformed all stratification systems.

CONCLUSIONS

In a European population of patients with DTC, out of ten International guidelines employing six risk of recurrence stratification systems and one mortality based stratification system, our optimized age-adjusted TNM system (8th edition) outperformed all other systems.

Validation of dynamic risk stratification and impact of BRAF in risk assessment of thyroid cancer, a nation-wide multicenter study

INTRODUCTION

The dynamic risk stratification (DRS) is a relatively new system in thyroid cancer that considers the response to primary treatment to improve the initial risk of recurrence. We wanted to validate DRS system in a nationwide multicenter study and explore if the incorporation of BRAFV600E into DRS helps to better categorize and predict outcomes.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Retrospective study of 685 patients from seven centers between 1991 and 2016, with a mean age of 48 years and a median follow-up time of 45 months (range 23-77). The overall BRAFV600E prevalence was 53.4%. We classified patients into four categories based on DRS ('excellent', 'indeterminate', 'biochemical incomplete', and 'structural incomplete' response). Cox regression was used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (AHR) and proportions of variance explained (PVEs).

RESULTS

We found 21.6% recurrences and 2.3% cancer-related deaths. The proportion of patients that developed recurrence in excellent, indeterminate, biochemical incomplete and structural incomplete response to therapy was 1.8%, 54%, 91.7% and 96.2% respectively. Considering the outcome at the end of the follow up, patients showed no evidence of disease (NED) in 98.2, 52, 33.3 and 25.6% respectively. Patients in the structural incomplete category were the only who died (17.7%). Because they have similar outcomes in terms of NED and survival, we integrated the indeterminate and biochemical incomplete response into one unique category creating the 3-tiered DRS system. The PVEs of the AJCC/TNM staging, ATA risk classification, 4-tiered DRS, and 3-tiered DRS to predict recurrence at five years were 21%, 25%, 57% and 59% respectively. BRAFV600E was significantly associated with biochemical incomplete response (71.1 vs 28.9%) (HR 2.43; 95% CI, 1.21 to 5.23; p=0.016), but not with structural incomplete response or distant metastases. BRAF status slightly changes the AHR values of the DRS categories but is not useful for different risk grouping.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first multicenter study to validate the 4-tiered DRS system. Our results also show that the 3-tiered DRS system, by integrating indeterminate and biochemical incomplete response into one unique category, may simplify response to therapy keeping the system accurate. BRAF status does not provide any additional benefit to DRS.

Detecting Recurrence Following Lobectomy for Thyroid Cancer: Role of Thyroglobulin and Thyroglobulin Antibodies

BACKGROUND

The use of thyroglobulin (Tg) and thyroglobulin antibodies (TgAb) for detecting disease recurrence is well validated following total thyroidectomy and radioiodine ablation. However, limited data are available for patients treated with thyroid lobectomy.

METHODS

Patients who had lobectomy for papillary thyroid cancer followed for >1 year, with sufficient data on Tg and TgAb, including subgroup analysis for Hashimoto's thyroiditis and contralateral nodules.

RESULTS

One-hundred sixty-seven patients met the inclusion criteria. Average tumor size was 9.5 ± 6 mm. Following lobectomy, Tg was 12.1 ± 14.8 ng/mL. Of 52 patients with Hashimoto's thyroiditis, 38% had positive TgAb with titers of 438 ± 528 IU/mL, and in patients without TgAb the mean Tg level was 14.7 ± 19.0 ng/mL. In 34 patients with contralateral nodules ≥1 cm, Tg was 15.3 ± 17 ng/mL. During the first 2 years of follow-up, Tg declined ≥1 ng/mL in 42% of patients (by 5.1 ± 3.7 ng/mL), remained stable in 22%, and increased in 36% (by 4.9 ± 5.7 ng/mL). During a mean follow-up of 6.5 years (78 ± 43.5 months), 18 patients had completion thyroidectomy and 12 were diagnosed with contralateral cancer (n = 8) or lymph node metastases (n = 4). In patients with recurrence followed for >2 years, there was a rise in Tg in 3 cases, Tg was stable in 2 cases, and in 1 TgAb decreased from 1534 to 276 IU/mL despite metastatic lymph nodes. Basal Tg and Tg dynamics did not predict disease recurrence.

CONCLUSIONS

Serum thyroglobulin used independently is of limited value for predicting or detecting disease recurrence following thyroid lobectomy. Other potential roles of Tg, such as detecting distant metastases following lobectomy, should be further studied.

Response to Therapy Assessment in Intermediate-Risk Thyroid Cancer Patients: Is Thyroglobulin Stimulation Required?

Introduction: The 2015 American Thyroid Association (ATA) guidelines recommend response to therapy (RTT) assessment 1-2 years after initial treatment in differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) patients to guide thyrotropin (TSH) goals and long-term follow-up. We hypothesized that data collected during the first 2 years of follow-up may be sufficient to determine RTT without thyroglobulin (Tg) stimulation. Materials and Methods: Patients treated with total thyroidectomy and radioiodine for intermediate-risk DTC, followed for >2 years, and had sufficient follow-up data were included. Data on Tg, ultrasound, scans, and long-term outcomes were collected. Results: One-hundred twenty patients met inclusion criteria, with 68% women and mean age 55 ± 15 years. Intermediate risk was due to lymph-node involvement (72%), extrathyroidal extension (51%), vascular invasion (12%), and high-risk histology (9%). At the end of follow-up of 7 ± 4 years, 26% had persistent disease (14% biochemical, 12% structural). According to the ATA RTT system (using stimulated-Tg), 56% had excellent RTT, of whom only 2% had disease at the end of follow-up. In the "nonstimulated" system (which includes basal Tg, post-¹³¹I therapy whole-body scan (TxWBS) for assessment of residual lymph-node metastases after surgery, and structural imaging studies), 57% had excellent response, of whom none had disease at the end of follow-up. Only eight patients (7%) were classified differently due to recombinant human thyrotropin stimulation (as either excellent or indeterminate response), with no difference in predictive value, with a receiver-operator characteristic area under the curve of 0.903 with Tg-stimulation and of 0.918 without. Conclusions: In patients with no evidence of disease during the first 2 years of follow-up, the addition of stimulated-Tg adds little prognostic information. We suggest the use of excellent RTT based on basal Tg together with TxWBS and structural imaging studies.

Validation of dynamic risk stratification in pediatric differentiated thyroid cancer

PURPOSE

There has been increasing interest in a risk-adopted management strategy known as dynamic risk stratification following the revised American Thyroid Association guidelines for differentiated thyroid cancer. We aimed to evaluate the usefulness of dynamic risk stratification for predicting structural disease in pediatric differentiated thyroid cancer patients.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed 130 pediatric differentiated thyroid cancer patients (≤19 years) who were treated between 1996 and 2015 at Samsung Medical Center. Patients were stratified according to three American Thyroid Association initial risk group (low, intermediate, or high risk) and four dynamic risk stratification group (excellent, indeterminate, biochemical incomplete, or structural incomplete).

RESULTS

Based on dynamic risk stratification strategy, structural disease was identified 3.9% in the excellent group, 9.7% in the indeterminate group, 76.9% in the biochemical incomplete group, and 100% in the structural incomplete group. The hazard ratios of the structural disease were 18.10 (P < 0.001) in the biochemical incomplete group, and 19.583 (P < 0.001) in the structural incomplete group compared to the excellent group. The prevalence of structural disease also increased as American Thyroid Association initial risk classification increased (5.9% in the low-risk group, 13.6% in the intermediate-risk group, and 45% in the high-risk group). The hazard ratios of structural disease in the high-risk group was 10.296 (P < 0.001) in compared to the low-risk group.

CONCLUSION

Dynamic risk stratification based on patient responses to initial therapy was able to effectively predict the risk of structural disease in a pediatric population, and as a follow-up strategy, may work as well in pediatric differentiated thyroid cancer patients as it does in adult differentiated thyroid cancer patients.

The impact of post-radioiodine therapy SPECT/CT on early risk stratification in differentiated thyroid cancer; a bi-institutional study

Objective

SPECT/CT has numerous advantages over planar and traditional SPECT images. The aim of this study was to evaluate the role of post-radioiodine therapy SPECT/CT of patients with differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) in early risk classification and in prediction of late prognosis.

Patients and methods

323 consecutive patients were investigated after their first radioiodine treatment (1100–3700 MBq). Both whole body scan and SPECT/CT images of the head, neck, chest and abdomen regions were taken 4–6 days after radioiodine therapy. Patients were re-evaluated 9–12 months later as well as at the end of follow up (median 37 months).

Results

Post-radioiodine therapy SPECT/CT showed metastases in 22% of patients. Lymph node, lung and bone metastases were detected in 61, 13 and 5 patients, respectively, resulting in early reclassification of 115 cases (36%). No evidence of disease was found in 251 cases at 9–12 months after radioiodine treatment and 269 patients at the end of follow-up. To predict residual disease at the end of follow-up, the sensitivities, specificities and diagnostic accuracies of the current risk classification systems and SPECT/CT were: ATA: 77%, 47% and 53%; ETA: 70%, 62% and 64%; SPECT/CT: 61%, 88% and 83%, respectively. There was no difference between cohorts of the two institutions when data were analyzed separately.

Conclusions

Based on our bi-institutional experience, the accuracy of post-radioiodine SPECT/CT outweighs that of the currently used ATA and ETA risk classification systems in the prediction of long-term outcome of DTC.

The Delayed Risk Stratification System in the Risk of Differentiated Thyroid Cancer Recurrence

Context

There has been a marked increase in the detection of differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) over the past few years, which has improved the prognosis. However, it is necessary to adjust treatment and monitoring strategies relative to the risk of an unfavourable disease course.

Materials and Methods

This retrospective study examined data from 916 patients with DTC who received treatment at a single centre between 2000 and 2013. The utility of the American Thyroid Association (ATA) and the European Thyroid Association (ETA) recommended systems for early assessment of the risk of recurrent/persistent disease was compared with that of the recently recommended delayed risk stratification (DRS) system.

Results

The PPV and NPV for the ATA (24.59% and 95.42%, respectively) and ETA (24.28% and 95.68%, respectively) were significantly lower than those for the DRS (56.76% and 98.5%, respectively) (p<0.0001). The proportion of variance for predicting the final outcome was 15.8% for ATA, 16.1% for ETA and 56.7% for the DRS. Recurrent disease was rare (1% of patients), and was nearly always identified in patients at intermediate/high risk according to the initial stratification (9/10 cases).

Conclusions

The DRS showed a better correlation with the risk of persistent disease than the early stratification systems and allows personalisation of follow-up. If clinicians plan to alter the intensity of surveillance, patients at intermediate/high risk according to the early stratification systems should remain within the specialized centers; however, low risk patients can be referred to endocrinologists or other appropriate practitioners for long-term follow-up, as these patients remained at low risk after risk re-stratification.

A Prospective Study Showing an Excellent Response of Patients with Low-Risk Differentiated Thyroid Cancer Who Did Not Undergo Radioiodine Remnant Ablation after Total Thyroidectomy

OBJECTIVES

To prospectively evaluate the outcome of patients with low-risk papillary thyroid carcinoma treated with total thyroidectomy (TT) who did not undergo radioiodine remnant ablation (RRA).

STUDY DESIGN

We prospectively followed up 57 patients; 3 months after TT, thyroglobulin (Tg) assessment and neck ultrasonography (US) were performed while patients were taking l-T4, presenting suppressed TSH. Six months after TT, patients underwent stimulated Tg testing and whole-body scan (WBS) after recombinant TSH (rhTSH). Then, 18 months after TT, the patients were evaluated by neck US and Tg under TSH between 0.5 and 2.0 mIU/ml. Two years after TT, we performed another rhTSH assessment, measuring Tg and making a WBS. The patients were then annually monitored with neck US and Tg measurement under TSH between 0.5 and 2.0 mIU/l for 36-84 months.

RESULTS

Neck US of all patients, 3 months after TT, presented no evidence of abnormal residual tissues or metastatic lymph nodes (negative neck US); at this time, the mean Tg level was 0.42 ng/ml. Six months after surgery, after rhTSH, the mean thyroid bed uptake was 1.82%, and Tg levels ranged from 0.10 to 22.30 ng/ml (mean, 2.89 ng/ml). The patients were followed up without any sign of recurrence (negative neck US and stable or decreasing Tg levels). During the ongoing follow-up, the Tg trend was stable or decreasing, independently of the initial suppressed or stimulated Tg level, or WBS uptake.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with low-risk differentiated thyroid cancer, who were operated by TT and who did not undergo RRA, an excellent response to treatment may be confirmed by annual neck US and Tg trend.

Follicular Thyroid Carcinoma: Disease Response Evaluation Using American Thyroid Association Risk Assessment Guidelines

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the overall and progression-free survival for follicular thyroid carcinoma (FTC) based on the American Thyroid Association (ATA) staging system for recurrence risk assessment and the TNM staging system.

METHODS

A clinical review of FTC patients between 1995 and 2014 was conducted at a single center. The data was classified using the TNM staging system into low, intermediate, and high risk of recurrence as per the ATA risk assessment.

RESULTS

Over the course of 19 years, 114 (11.9%) of all of the thyroid cancer patients presenting to our hospital had FTC (i.e. 78 females and 36 males). The age range was 15-80 years. Ninety-four tumors were resectable and 18 were unresectable. Sixteen patients were excluded due to insufficient information on their recurrence risk. Based on the ATA categorization, 36 patients had a low recurrence risk. All patients were alive at the time of categorization, and 1 showed progressive disease. Thirty-eight patients had an intermediate recurrence risk. One patient died and 2 showed progression. Twenty-four had a high recurrence risk. Seven patients died and 6 showed progression. In terms of TNM stages, 2 (3.2%) stage I, 3 (17.6%) stage II, 1 (14%) stage III, and 2 (12.5%) stage IV patients died during follow-up. Both ATA risk classification and TNM staging were significant predictors of disease-free survival. On bivariate analysis, the ATA classification (HR  4.67; 95% CI 1.74-12.5, p  =  0.002) was a better predictor of survival compared to the TNM classification (HR 1.26; 95% CI 0.98-1.62, p = 0.063).

CONCLUSION

ATA risk stratification predicts the disease recurrence rate and survival better than TNM staging. Age does not have an association; the risk category with dynamic reassessment effectively better predicts the course of disease in FTC.