Metabolic Syndrome and Its Components Predict the Risk of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in the Mainland Chinese: A 3-Year Cohort Study

An environment-wide association study for the identification of non-invasive factors for type 2 diabetes mellitus: Analysis based on the Henan Rural Cohort study

AIM

To explore the influencing factors of Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in the rural population of Henan Province and evaluate the predictive ability of non-invasive factors to T2DM.

METHODS

A total of 30,020 participants from the Henan Rural Cohort Study in China were included in this study. The dataset was randomly divided into a training set and a testing set with a 50:50 split for validation purposes. We used logistic regression analysis to investigate the association between 56 factors and T2DM in the training set (false discovery rate < 5 %) and significant factors were further validated in the testing set (P < 0.05). Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) model was used to determine the ability of the non-invasive variables to classify T2DM individuals accurately and the importance ranking of these variables.

RESULTS

The overall population prevalence of T2DM was 9.10 %. After adjusting for age, sex, educational level, marital status, and body measure index (BMI), we identified 13 non-invasive variables and 6 blood biochemical indexes associated with T2DM in the training and testing dataset. The top three factors according to the GBM importance ranking were pulse pressure (PP), urine glucose (UGLU), and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR). The GBM model achieved a receiver operating characteristic (AUC) curve of 0.837 with non-invasive variables and 0.847 for the full model.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings demonstrate that non-invasive variables that can be easily measured and quickly obtained may be used to predict T2DM risk in rural populations in Henan Province.

Predictive performance of lipid parameters in identifying undiagnosed diabetes and prediabetes: a cross-sectional study in eastern China

BACKGROUND

Dyslipidaemia is a risk factor for abnormal blood glucose. However, studies on the predictive values of lipid markers in prediabetes and diabetes simultaneously are limited. This study aimed to assess the associations and predictive abilities of lipid indices and abnormal blood glucose.

METHODS

A sample of 7667 participants without diabetes were enrolled in this cross-sectional study conducted in 2016, and all of them were classified as having normal glucose tolerance (NGT), prediabetes or diabetes. Blood glucose, blood pressure and lipid parameters (triglycerides, TG; total cholesterol, TC; high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, HDL-C; low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, LDL-C; non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, non-HDL-C; and triglyceride glucose index, TyG) were evaluated or calculated. Logistic regression models were used to analyse the association between lipids and abnormal blood glucose. The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to assess the discriminatory power of lipid parameters for detecting prediabetes or diabetes.

RESULTS

After adjustment for potential confounding factors, the TyG was the strongest marker related to abnormal blood glucose compared to other lipid indices, with odds ratios of 2.111 for prediabetes and 5.423 for diabetes. For prediabetes, the AUCs of the TG, TC, HDL-C, LDL-C, TC/HDL-C, TG/HDL-C, non-HDL-C and TyG indices were 0.605, 0.617, 0.481, 0.615, 0.603, 0.590, 0.626 and 0.660, respectively, and the cut-off points were 1.34, 4.59, 1.42, 2.69, 3.39, 1.00, 3.19 and 8.52, respectively. For diabetes, the AUCs of the TG, TC, HDL-C, LDL-C, TC/HDL-C, TG/HDL-C, non-HDL-C and TyG indices were 0.712, 0.679, 0.440, 0.652, 0.686, 0.692, 0.705, and 0.827, respectively, and the cut-off points were 1.35, 4.68, 1.42, 2.61, 3.44, 0.98, 3.13 and 8.80, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The TyG, TG and non-HDL-C, especially TyG, are accessible biomarkers for screening individuals with undiagnosed diabetes.

Derivation and Validation of a Prediction Model for Predicting the 5-Year Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes in Non-Obese Adults: A Population-Based Cohort Study

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to derivate and validate a nomogram based on independent predictors to better evaluate the 5-year risk of T2D in non-obese adults.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This is a historical cohort study from a collection of databases that included 12,940 non-obese participants without diabetes at baseline. All participants were randomised to a derivation cohort (n = 9651) and a validation cohort (n = 3289). In the derivation cohort, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model was used to determine the optimal risk factors for T2D. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to establish the nomogram of T2D prediction. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, C-index, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis were performed by 1000 bootstrap resamplings to evaluate the discrimination ability, calibration, and clinical practicability of the nomogram.

RESULTS

After LASSO regression analysis of the derivation cohort, it was found that age, fatty liver, γ-glutamyltranspeptidase, triglycerides, glycosylated hemoglobin A1c and fasting plasma glucose were risk predictors, which were integrated into the nomogram. The C-index of derivation cohort and validation cohort were 0.906 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.878-0.934] and 0.837 (95% CI, 0.760-0.914), respectively. The AUC of 5-year T2D risk in the derivation cohort and validation cohort was 0.916 (95% CI, 0.889-0.943) and 0.829 (95% CI, 0.753-0.905), respectively. The calibration curve indicated that the predicted probability of nomogram is in good agreement with the actual probability. The decision curve analysis demonstrated that the predicted nomogram was clinically useful.

CONCLUSION

Our nomogram can be used as a reasonable, affordable, simple, and widely implemented tool to predict the 5-year risk of T2D in non-obese adults. With this model, early identification of high-risk individuals is helpful to timely intervene and reduce the risk of T2D in non-obese adults.

Efficacy of sex hormone-binding globulin on predicting metabolic syndrome in newly diagnosed and untreated patients with polycystic ovary syndrome

PURPOSE

The aims of this study were to investigate the correlation of sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) and the components of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and explore the ability of SHBG to predict MetS in newly diagnosed and untreated patients with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS).

METHODS

Ninety-eight newly diagnosed and untreated patients with PCOS and 37 healthy volunteers were recruited. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to explore the best cutoff values of SHBG for predicting that the patients with PCOS would fulfill at least one abnormal index of MetS components, at least two abnormal indexes of MetS components, or MetS.

RESULTS

The numbers of patients with PCOS who fulfilled none, one, or two of the MetS criteria items and MetS were 33, 31, 19, and 15, respectively. SHBG was negatively correlated with BMI (r = - 0.615, P < 0.001), systolic blood pressure (SBP) (r = - 0371, P < 0.001), diastolic blood pressure (DBP) (r = - 0.285, P = 0.004), triglycerides (TG) (r = - 0.431, P < 0.001), fasting serum insulin (I₀) (r = - 0.549, P < 0.001), HOMA-IR (r = - 0.557, P < 0.001), and plasma glucose 2 h after glucose load (G₁₂₀) (r = - 0.337, P < 0.001) and positively correlated with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) (r = 0.629, P < 0.001) in patients with PCOS. The optimal cutoff value of SHBG for predicting MetS in patients with PCOS was 21.3 nmol/L, with a sensitivity of 100.0% (95% CI 78.0-100.0%) and specificity of 85.12% (95% CI 77.5-90.9%).

CONCLUSIONS

Sixty-five patients had varying degrees of metabolic abnormalities, accounting for 66.3% of the patients with PCOS. SHBG was associated with metabolic indexes, including BMI, SBP, DBP, TG, I₀, HOMA-IR, G₁₂₀, and HDL-C, and can therefore be employed as a useful index for MetS prediction.

Changes in metabolic syndrome and its components and the risk of type 2 diabetes: a nationwide cohort study

We investigated the relationship of changes in Metabolic syndrome (MetS) and its components with the risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in South Korea. Records of 10,806,716 adults aged ≥ 20 years without a history of T2D between 2009 and 2015 were retrieved from database of the South Korean National Health Insurance Service and analyzed. Changes in metabolic components were monitored over a two-year period with follow-up occurring at an average of 4.087 years. During the follow-up period, 848,859 individuals were diagnosed with T2D. The risk of diabetes was lowered with a decrease in the number of MetS components at baseline and the second visit (p for trend <0.0001). Multivariable-adjusted HRs for incident diabetes were 0.645 among individuals with reduced number of MetS components, 0.54 for those with improvement in elevated fasting glucose, 0.735 for those with improvement in elevated triglycerides, 0.746 for those with improvement in elevated blood pressure, 0.763 for those with improvement in reduced HDL-cholesterol, and 0.92 for those with improvement in abdominal obesity compared with those manifesting them at both time points. In conclusion, changes in metabolic syndrome and its components were significantly associated with the development of T2D. Improvement in MetS and its components attenuated the risk of diabetes.

Development and Validation of a Nomogram to Predict Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Overweight and Obese Adults: A Prospective Cohort Study from 82938 Adults in China

BACKGROUND

The twin epidemic of overweight/obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a major public health problem globally, especially in China. Overweight/obese adults commonly coexist with T2DM, which is closely related to adverse health outcomes. Therefore, this study aimed to develop risk nomogram of T2DM in Chinese adults with overweight/obesity.

METHODS

We used prospective cohort study data for 82938 individuals aged ≥20 years free of T2DM collected between 2010 and 2016 and divided them into a training (n = 58056) and a validation set (n = 24882). Using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model in training set, we identified optimized risk factors of T2DM, followed by the establishment of T2DM prediction nomogram. The discriminative ability, calibration, and clinical usefulness of nomogram were assessed. The results were assessed by internal validation in validation set.

RESULTS

Six independent risk factors of T2DM were identified and entered into the nomogram including age, body mass index, fasting plasma glucose, total cholesterol, triglycerides, and family history. The nomogram incorporating these six risk factors showed good discrimination regarding the training set, with a Harrell's concordance index (C-index) of 0.859 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.850-0.868] and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.862 (95% CI: 0.853-0.871). The calibration curves indicated well agreement between the probability as predicted by the nomogram and the actual probability. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the prediction nomogram was clinically useful. The consistent of findings was confirmed using the validation set.

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram showed accurate prediction for T2DM among Chinese population with overweight and obese and might aid in assessment risk of T2DM.