A Clinical Model for the Prediction of Acute Exacerbation Risk in Patients with Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis

Nomogram model using serum Club cell secretory protein 16 to predict prognosis and acute exacerbation in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

BACKGROUND

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive fibrotic lung disease with poor prognosis, nomogram model for its prognosis and acute exacerbation was constructed.

METHODS

Two hundred and sixty eight patients with IPF were grouped with different severity according to fibrosis area, serum Club cell secretory protein 16(CC16) was compared between these groups. All patients were randomly divided into training and testing sets. COX regression and LASSO algorithm were used to screen featured characteristics. Then nomogram models were constructed, ROC curve, calibration curve and decision curve analysis(DCA) were conducted to evaluate the performance of model. Expression of CC16 were detected in fibrotic human lung tissues, bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) and Bleomycin(BLM)-treated mouse lung tissues and serums.

RESULTS

Serum CC16 gradually increased with the severity of fibrosis, and was especially high in AE-IPF group. CC16 and diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide (DLCO) were screened as characteristic variables to construct nomogram model for IPF prognosis. The survival was significantly lower in high-risk group scored by the model. The area under ROC curves(AUCs) for 1-year and 2-year mortality prediction were 0.866 and 0.916, respectively. This model performed better than gender-age-physiology (GAP) index for predicting 2-year and 3-year mortality. Another nomogram model for acute exacerbation of IPF based on CC16, Krebs von den Lungen-6(KL-6) and DLCO was developed, the AUC was 0.815. Expression of CC16 obviously up-regulated in fibrotic lung tissues, BALF and BLM-treated mice lung tissues and serums.

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram model based on CC16 performed good predictive ability for prognosis and acute exacerbation of IPF.

Acute exacerbation of postoperative idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis in a patient with lung cancer caused by invasive mechanical ventilation: A case report

Study design and objection

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive chronic disease characterized by damage to alveolar epithelial cells and abnormal deposition of the extracellular matrix. Although the disease course for most patients with IPF is progressive, in some cases the disease may appear as an acute exacerbation. Mechanical ventilation life support plays an important role in the treatment of patients with IPF but is associated with an increased risk of acute exacerbation of IPF (AE-IPF). Treatment is controversial and is not supported by sufficient clinical evidence. AE-IPF after lung cancer surgery is extremely rare, and the etiology and mechanism remain unclear, and its clinical manifestations are very similar to acute pulmonary edema and are easily misdiagnosed.

Summaryof background data

We describe a 66-year-old male patient with IPF complicated with lung cancer who underwent thoracoscopic resection of the right upper lobe of the lung. Seventy-two hours after surgery, chest computed tomography indicated that AE-IPF in the mechanically ventilated lung was significantly greater than that in the operated lung. The patient's own lung was used as a control and proved that mechanical ventilation can lead to AE-IPF.

Results and conclusions

By highlighting the clinical characteristics of patients with acute exacerbation of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, this article will enhance the vigilance of clinicians on AE-IPF caused by mechanical ventilation. Importantly, preoperative nintedanib therapy should be applied in advance to prevent AE-IPF on in patients with mild IPF. Precise pulmonary protective ventilation strategies need to be formulated for patients with IPF to reduce mortality.

The Impact of Lung Cancer in Patients with Combined Pulmonary Fibrosis and Emphysema (CPFE)

Given the high risk of lung cancer (LC) in patients with combined pulmonary fibrosis and emphysema (CPFE), and the difficulty of early diagnosis, it is important to understand the impact of LC in these patients. The effect of LC on the development of acute exacerbation (AE) as a natural course of CPFE is still unknown. We retrospectively reviewed medical records of patients at the West China Hospital and enrolled 59 patients with CPFE combined with LC and 68 CPFE patients without LC for initial diagnosis matched in the same period. We compared the clinical characteristics and imaging features of CPFE patients with LC and without LC, and analyzed the associated factors for the prevalence of LC using binary logistic regression. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was performed to explore risk factors of AE as a natural course of CPFE. Patients with CPFE combined with LC were more common among elderly male smokers. The most common pathological type of tumor was adenocarcinoma (24/59, 40.7%) and squamous cell carcinoma (18/59, 30.5%). Compared with those in the without LC group, the proportions of men, and ex- or current smokers, and the levels of smoking pack-years, serum CRP, IL-6, fibrinogen, complement C3 and C4 in patients with LC were significantly higher (p < 0.05). There was no significant difference in the proportion of natural-course-related AE (10.2% vs. 16.2%, p > 0.05) between the two groups. Logistic regression analysis demonstrated that pack-years ≥ 20 (OR: 3.672, 95% CI: 1.165-11.579), family history of cancer (OR: 8.353, 95% CI: 2.368-10.417), the level of fibrinogen > 4.81 g/L (OR: 3.628, 95% CI: 1.403-9.385) and serum C3 > 1.00 g/L (OR: 5.299, 95% CI: 1.727-16.263) were independently associated with LC in patients with CPFE. Compared to those without AE, CPFE patients with AE had significantly higher levels of PLR and serum CRP, with obviously lower DLCO and VC. The obviously increased PLR (HR: 3.731, 95% CI: 1.288-10.813), and decreased DLCO%pred (HR: 0.919, 95% CI: 0.863-0.979) and VC%pred (HR: 0.577, 95% CI: 0.137-0.918) rather than the presence of LC independently contributed to the development of natural-course-related AE in patients with CPFE. Pack-years, family history of cancer, the levels of fibrinogen and serum C3 were independently associated with LC in patients with CPFE. The presence of LC did not significantly increase the risk of AE as a natural course of CPFE. Clinicians should give high priority to CPFE patients, especially those with more severe fibrosis and systemic inflammation, in order to be alert for the occurrence of AE.

Predictive Nomogram for Hyperprogressive Disease During Anti-PD-1/PD-L1 Treatment in Patients with Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Introduction

Various studies have reported that anti-PD-1/PD-L1 treatment may lead to the rapid development of tumors called hyperprogressive disease (HPD). A nomogram for HPD prediction in NSCLC patients is urgently needed.

Methods

This retrospective cohort study included 176 cases for establishing a model of HPD prediction and 85 cases for validation in advanced NSCLC patients treated with PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors. HPD was defined as tumor growth rate (TGR, ≥ 2), tumor growth kinetics (TGK, ≥ 2) or time to treatment failure (TTF, ≤ 2 months). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to estimate the specified factors associated with HPD. Then, the nomogram was developed and validated.

Results

Anti-PD-1/PD-L1 therapy resulted in a 9.66% (17/176) incidence of HPD in advanced NSCLC. The overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with HPD were significantly shorter than those in patients without HPD (OS: 7.00 vs 12.00 months, P<0.01; PFS: 2.00 vs 5.00 months, P<0.001, respectively). The HPD prediction nomogram included APTT (P<0.01), CD4+ CD25+ CD127-low cells (Treg cells) (P<0.01), the presence of liver metastasis (P<0.05), and more than two metastatic sites (P<0.05). Then, patients were divided into two groups by the "HPD score" calculated by the nomogram. The C-index was 0.845, while the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.830 (sensitivity 75.00%, specificity 91.70%). The calibration plot of HPD probability showed an optimal agreement between the actual observation and prediction by the nomogram. In the validation cohort, the AUC was up to 0.960 (sensitivity 88.70%, specificity 89.80%).

Conclusions

The nomogram was constructed with the presence of liver metastasis, more than two metastatic sites, lengthened APTT and a high level of Treg cells, which could be used to predict HPD risk.

The miR-130a-3p/TGF-βRII Axis Participates in Inhibiting the Differentiation of Fibroblasts Induced by TGF-β1

Pulmonary fibrosis (PF) is a chronic progressive interstitial lung disease that has a poor prognosis. Abnormal activation of transforming growth factor-β1 (TGF-β1) plays a crucial role in fibroblast differentiation. Mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) are currently being considered for the treatment of PF, but the regulatory mechanisms are poorly understood. We co-cultured bone marrow-derived MSCs and mouse lung fibroblasts (MLg) in the presence of TGF-β1, and studied the protein/mRNA expression of fibrosis markers and related signaling pathways. The effects of miR-130a-3p and TGF-β receptor II (TGF-βRII) on the differentiation of MLg induced by TGF-β1 were studied using immunofluorescence assay, Western blot, and quantitative real-time PCR techniques, respectively. Our results showed that MSCs reversed the overexpression of fibrosis markers and TGF-β1/Smad signaling pathway proteins and mRNAs after TGF-β1 treatment and increased the level of miR-130a-3p. TGF-βRII was identified as a target of miR-130a-3p and was evaluated by dual-luciferase reporter assay. The miR-130a-3p/TGF-βRII axis could suppress the differentiation of lung fibroblasts via the TGF-β1/Smad signaling pathway, thereby reducing the process of PF.

Derivation and Validation of a Prediction Model for Predicting the 5-Year Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes in Non-Obese Adults: A Population-Based Cohort Study

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to derivate and validate a nomogram based on independent predictors to better evaluate the 5-year risk of T2D in non-obese adults.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This is a historical cohort study from a collection of databases that included 12,940 non-obese participants without diabetes at baseline. All participants were randomised to a derivation cohort (n = 9651) and a validation cohort (n = 3289). In the derivation cohort, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model was used to determine the optimal risk factors for T2D. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to establish the nomogram of T2D prediction. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, C-index, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis were performed by 1000 bootstrap resamplings to evaluate the discrimination ability, calibration, and clinical practicability of the nomogram.

RESULTS

After LASSO regression analysis of the derivation cohort, it was found that age, fatty liver, γ-glutamyltranspeptidase, triglycerides, glycosylated hemoglobin A1c and fasting plasma glucose were risk predictors, which were integrated into the nomogram. The C-index of derivation cohort and validation cohort were 0.906 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.878-0.934] and 0.837 (95% CI, 0.760-0.914), respectively. The AUC of 5-year T2D risk in the derivation cohort and validation cohort was 0.916 (95% CI, 0.889-0.943) and 0.829 (95% CI, 0.753-0.905), respectively. The calibration curve indicated that the predicted probability of nomogram is in good agreement with the actual probability. The decision curve analysis demonstrated that the predicted nomogram was clinically useful.

CONCLUSION

Our nomogram can be used as a reasonable, affordable, simple, and widely implemented tool to predict the 5-year risk of T2D in non-obese adults. With this model, early identification of high-risk individuals is helpful to timely intervene and reduce the risk of T2D in non-obese adults.