Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Remains High in Patients with HBV-Related Decompensated Cirrhosis and Long-Term Antiviral Therapy

Triglyceride-Glucose Index is an Independent Risk Factor for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Development in Patients with HBV-Related Liver Cirrhosis

Aim

This study aimed to explore the effects of the triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related liver cirrhosis (LC).

Methods

A total of 242 patients with HBV-related LC were enrolled and followed-up. Logistic regression analysis was performed to investigate risk factors for HCC.

Results

The median follow-up time was 37 months (range: 6-123 months). At the end of the follow-up, 11 (11.3%) patients with compensated cirrhosis (CC) and 45 (31.0%) with decompensated cirrhosis (DC) developed HCC. The TyG index was higher in the HCC group than in the non-HCC group (P=0.05). Univariate analysis showed that age (P<0.01), DC (P<0.01), TyG index (P=0.08), albumin (ALB) level (P=0.05), platelet (PLT) count (P<0.01), and HBV DNA positivity (P<0.01) were associated with HCC development. Multivariate analysis revealed that age, DC, TyG index, PLT count, and HBV DNA positivity were independent risk factors for HCC development (P=0.01, 0.01, <0.01, 0.05, and <0.01, respectively). For patients with DC, multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that age, TyG index, and HBV DNA positivity were independent risk factors for HCC development (all P<0.05). A new model encompassing age, DC, TyG, PLT, and positive HBV DNA had optimal predictive accuracy in patients with DC or CC, with a cutoff value of 0.197. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) of the model for predicting HCC development in patients with LC, DC, and CC were 0.778, 0.721, and 0.783, respectively.

Conclusion

TyG index was identified as an independent risk factor for HCC development in patients with LC.

A new model predicts hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with HBV-related decompensated liver cirrhosis and long-term antiviral therapy: a prospective study

Background

We aimed to evaluate the prediction values of non-invasive models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in patients with HBV-related liver cirrhosis (LC) and long-term NA treatment.

Methods

Patients with compensated or decompensated cirrhosis (DC), who achieved long-term virological response, were enrolled. DC and its stages were defined by the complications including ascites, encephalopathy, variceal bleeding, or renal failure. Prediction accuracy of several risk scores, including ALBI, CAMD, PAGE-B, mPAGE-B and aMAP, was compared.

Results

The median follow-up duration was 37 (28-66) months. Among the 229 patients, 9 (9.57%) patients in the compensated LC group and 39 (28.89%) patients in the DC group developed HCC. The incidence of HCC was higher in the DC group ( X ² = 12.478, P < 0.01). The AUROC of ALBI, aMAP, CAMD, PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores were 0.512, 0.667, 0.638, 0.663, 0.679, respectively. There was no significant difference in AUROC between CAMD, aMAP, PAGE-B and mPAGE-B (all P > 0.05). Univariable analysis showed that age, DC status and platelet were associated with HCC development, and multivariable analysis showed that age and DC status (both P < 0.01) were independent risk factors for HCC development, then Model (Age_DC) was developed and its AUROC was 0.718. Another model, Model (Age_DC_PLT_TBil) consisting of age, DC stage, PLT, TBil was also developed, and its AUROC was larger than that of Model (Age_DC) (0.760 vs. 0.718). Moreover, AUROC of Model (Age_DC_PLT_TBil) was larger than the other five models (all P < 0.05). With an optimal cut-off value of 0.236, Model (Age_DC_PLT_TBil) achieved 70.83% sensitivity, 76.24% specificity.

Conclusion

There is a lack of non-invasive risk scores for HCC development in HBV-related DC, and a new model consisting of age, DC stage, PLT, TBil may be an alternative.

Incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B virus infection in those not meeting criteria for antiviral therapy

Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is the leading risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The aim of this study was to explore the incidence of HCC in a cohort of subjects with HBV and correlate with HBV treatment current guidance. We identified 2846 subjects with HBV over the study period. HCC was diagnosed in 386 of 2846 (14%) subjects; 209 of 386 (54%) were on nucleos(t)ide analogue (NA) therapy at time of HCC diagnosis, and 177 of 386 (46%) were not on NA therapy. Of the 177 subjects not on NAs who developed HCC during follow-up, 153 of 177 (86%) had cirrhosis. Within the 177 subjects not on NAs, 158 of 177 (89%) had undetectable HBV DNA, 10 of 177 (6%) had detectable HBV DNA < 2000 IU/L, and 9 of 177 (5%) had HBV DNA > 2000 IU/L. Of those with cirrhosis and undetectable HBV DNA, 115 of 141 had compensated cirrhosis, and 26 of 141 had decompensated cirrhosis. Significant predictors of HCC on time to event analysis included cirrhosis (hazard ratio [HR] 10, 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.8-17.5; p < 0.001), alanine aminotransferase level (HR 1.004, 95% CI 1.002-1.006; p < 0.001), age (HR 1.04, 95% CI 1.03-1.06; p < 0.001), (HR 1.9, 95% CI 1.2-3.1; p 0.007), and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (HR 1.7, 95% CI 1.1-2.8; p 0.02). Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated the cumulative incidence of HCC in subjects with compensated cirrhosis receiving NA therapy was significantly lower compared to subjects with compensated cirrhosis outside current HBV treatment practice guidance (undetectable HBV DNA) (32% vs. 51%; p < 0.001). Conclusion: Those with untreated compensated cirrhosis with undetectable HBV DNA who do not meet current guidance for treatment had higher rates of HCC than those with compensated cirrhosis and suppressed HBV DNA by NA therapy. This study highlights the need for earlier diagnosis and treatment of HBV.

The Age, Gamma-Glutamyl Transpeptidase and Platelet Index: A Novel Noninvasive Model for Predicting Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Hepatitis B Virus-Related Liver Cirrhosis

Background and Aims

High incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) exists in patients with liver cirrhosis (LC), but the predictive accuracy of noninvasive scoring systems (NSSs) is yet to be elucidated. The present study aimed to evaluate the predictive ability of fibrosis-4 (FIB-4), aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI), and gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase to platelet ratio (GPR) in patients with LC, and to establish a new model with more accuracy.

Methods

Data from 94 patients with compensated LC and 134 patients with decompensated cirrhosis (DC) were collected. The prediction accuracy of NSSs, including APRI, GPR, and FIB-4, was compared.

Results

During a median follow-up of 37.5 months, 9 patients in the compensated LC group and 38 in the DC group developed HCC. For 228 patients, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of APRI, GPR, and FIB-4 was 0.596, 0.625, and 0.654, respectively. Multivariable logistic analysis showed that age, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT), and platelet (PLT) were independent risk factors for HCC development, and a new model encompassing age, GGT, and PLT was superior to NSSs (all P<0.05). With an optimal cutoff value of 0.216, Model (Age_GGT_PLT) achieved 68.09% sensitivity and 69.61% specificity.

Conclusion

NSSs, including APRI, GPR, and FIB-4, has a non-optimal accuracy in predicting HCC development in patients with HBV-related LC. Thus, the new model consisting of age, GGT, and PLT may be more accurate than NSSs.