Nomogram to Predict the Survival of Chinese Patients with Alcohol-Related Liver Disease

Sarcopenia defined with L3-SMI is an independent predictor of survival in male patients with ARLD in mainland China

Background

The burden of alcohol-related liver disease (ARLD) is increasing in China. Patients with ARLD are more likely to have comorbid sarcopenia, which may impair their survival. This study aimed to evaluate the relationship between the prognoses of patients with ARLD and sarcopenia, identified using the skeletal muscle index at the third lumbar vertebra level (L3-SMI).

Methods

Hospitalized patients with ARLD were retrospectively enrolled between 2015 and 2018 and followed up for 24 months to evaluate their survival profiles. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate patient survival factors. A receiver operating characteristic curve was created to identify the cut-off point of the L3-SMI for predicting the prognoses of Chinese patients with ARLD.

Results

The study enrolled 168 male patients with ARLD who were followed-up for 24 months or until a study endpoint was met. The overall L3-SMI in patients with ARLD was 42.61 ± 9.15 cm2/m2, and 42.86% (72/168) of patients with ARLD were comorbid with sarcopenia. The overall survival in patients with ARLD was 77.38% at 24 months. The survival rate of patients with sarcopenia was lower than that of patients without sarcopenia (66.67% vs. 85.42%, p = 0.004). Multiple Cox regression analysis showed that sarcopenia, abstinence, and baseline creatinine level were independent prognostic factors of 24-month survival with hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of 2.022 (1.025-3.991), 0.275 (0.122-0.617), and 1.018 (1.008-1.027), respectively. The cut-off value of the L3-SMI for predicting 24-month survival was 40.0 cm2/m2 for male patients with ARLD.

Conclusion

Sarcopenia is an independent mortality risk factor in male patients with ARLD in mainland China. Early diagnosis and intervention of sarcopenia are important for optimizing the management of patients with ARLD.

Development and Validation of a nomogram for forecasting survival of alcohol related hepatocellular carcinoma patients

BACKGROUND

With the increasing incidence and prevalence of alcoholic liver disease, alcohol-related hepatocellular carcinoma has become a serious public health problem worthy of attention in China. However, there is currently no prognostic prediction model for alcohol-related hepatocellular carcinoma.

METHODS

The retrospective analysis research of alcohol related hepatocellular carcinoma patients was conducted from January 2010 to December 2014. Independent prognostic factors of alcohol related hepatocellular carcinoma were identified by Lasso regression and multivariate COX proportional model analysis, and the nomogram model was constructed. The reliability and accuracy of the model were assessed using the concordance index(C-Index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curve. Evaluate the clinical benefit and application value of the model through clinical decision curve analysis (DCA). The prognosis was assessed by the Kaplan-Meier (KM) survival curve.

RESULTS

In sum, 383 patients were included in our study. Patients were stochastically assigned to training cohort (n=271) and validation cohort (n=112) according to 7:3 ratio. The predictors included in the nomogram were splenectomy, platelet count (PLT), creatinine (CRE), Prealbumin (PA), mean erythrocyte hemoglobin concentration (MCHC), red blood cell distribution width (RDW) and TNM. Our nomogram demonstrated excellent discriminatory power (C-index) and good calibration at 1-year, 3-year and 5- year overall survival (OS). Compared to TNM and Child-Pugh model, the nomogram had better discriminative ability and higher accuracy. DCA showed high clinical benefit and application value of the model.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram model we established can precisely forcasting the prognosis of alcohol related hepatocellular carcinoma patients, which would be helpful for the early warning of alcohol related hepatocellular carcinoma and predict prognosis in patients with alcoholic hepatocellular carcinoma.

Spontaneous remission of hepatic myelopathy in a patient with alcoholic cirrhosis: A case report

BACKGROUND

Hepatic myelopathy (HM) is a rare neurological complication of advanced cirrhosis. Prognosis of patients with HM is generally poor without timely liver transplantation or interventional therapy. Self-resolving HM in patients with alcoholic cirrhosis has never been reported.

CASE SUMMARY

A 53-year-old man with alcoholic cirrhosis and recurrent overt hepatic encephalopathy for 1 year was admitted for lower extremity weakness, slow movement, and stumbling gait. The patient was diagnosed with HM after excluding other causes of spastic paraparesis. The patient refused liver transplantation. However, the patient kept total abstinence and received a multidisciplinary treatment for complications of decompensated cirrhosis. The symptoms of HM resolved gradually after 2 years of treatment. All complications of alcoholic cirrhosis resolved after 4 years of follow-up.

CONCLUSION

The case demonstrates that HM can resolve in patients without liver transplan-tation after total abstinence and systemic management of complications.