Lung cancer mortality trends in Chile and six-year projections using Bayesian dynamic linear models

The objectives were to analyze lung cancer mortality trends in Chile from 1990 to 2009, and to project the rates six years forward. Lung cancer mortality data were obtained from the Chilean Ministry of Health. To obtain mortality rates, population projections were used, based on the 2002 National Census. Rates were adjusted using the world standard population as reference. Bayesian dynamic linear models were fitted to estimate trends from 1990 to 2009 and to obtain projections for 2010-2015. During the period under study, there was a 19.9% reduction in the lung cancer mortality rate in men. In women, there was increase of 28.4%. The second-order model showed a better fit for men, and the first-order model a better fit for women. Between 2010 and 2015 the downward trend continued in men, while a trend to stabilization was projected for lung cancer mortality in women in Chile. This analytical approach could be useful implement surveillance systems for chronic non-communicable disease and to evaluate preventive strategies.

[Lung cancer mortality trends in Spain between 1980 and 2005]

OBJECTIVE

To describe trends in lung cancer mortality in Spain between 1980 and 2005.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Data on deaths from lung cancer during the study period were obtained from the Spanish National Institute of Statistics. Global and truncated (35 to 64 years) age-specific and gender-specific mortality rates were calculated and expressed as rates per 100,000 person-years. Trends were analyzed using joinpoint regression models.

RESULTS

In 2005 in Spain, 16 647 men and 2471 women died from lung cancer, accounting for 26.6% and 6.6%, respectively, of all cancer deaths. In men, truncated mortality rates initially increased in the 1980-1992 period (3.1% per year; P<.05) but began to decrease in the 1992-2005 period (-0.8% per year, P<.05). Starting in the 1990s, age-specific mortality rates showed a statistically significant decrease in patients aged less than 85 years. For women, after an initial stable period, truncated mortality rates increased significantly from 1992 onward by 6.3% per year. The analysis by age groups showed that the rates increased in all age groups, except for patients aged 25 to 34 years and patients aged 75 to 84 years, in whom they remained stable.

CONCLUSIONS

While lung cancer mortality began to decrease slightly among Spanish men 15 years ago, it increased significantly among women during the same period.