Prolongation of disease-free life: When is the benefit sufficient to warrant the effort of taking a preventive medicine?

The prolongation of disease-free life (PODL) required by people to be willing to accept an offer of a preventive treatment is unknown. Quantifying the required benefits could guide information and discussions about preventive treatment. In this study, we investigated how large the benefit in prolongation of a disease-free life (PODL) should be for individuals aged 50-80 years to accept a preventive treatment offer. We used a cross-sectional survey design based on a representative sample of 6847 Danish citizens aged 50-80 years. Data were collected in 2019 through a web-based standardized questionnaire administered by Statistics Denmark, and socio-demographic data were added from a national registry. We analyzed the data with chi-square tests and stepwise multinomial logistic regression. The results indicate that the required minimum benefit from the preventive treatment varied widely between individuals (1-week PODL = 14.8%, ≥4 years PODL = 39.2%), and that the majority of individuals (51.1%) required a PODL of ≥2 years. The multivariable analysis indicate that education and income were independently and negatively associated with requested minimum benefit, while age and smoking were independently and positively associated with requested minimum benefit to accept the preventive treatment. Most individuals aged 50-80 years required larger health benefits than most preventive medications on average can offer. The data support the need for educating patients and health care professionals on how to use average benefits when discussing treatment benefits, especially for primary prevention.

Predicting negative health outcomes in older general practice patients with chronic illness: Rationale and development of the PROPERmed harmonized individual participant data database

The prevalence of multimorbidity and polypharmacy increases significantly with age and are associated with negative health consequences. However, most current interventions to optimize medication have failed to show significant effects on patient-relevant outcomes. This may be due to ineffectiveness of interventions themselves but may also reflect other factors: insufficient sample sizes, heterogeneity of population. To address this issue, the international PROPERmed collaboration was set up to obtain/synthesize individual participant data (IPD) from five cluster-randomized trials. The trials took place in Germany and The Netherlands and aimed to optimize medication in older general practice patients with chronic illness. PROPERmed is the first database of IPD to be drawn from multiple trials in this patient population and setting. It offers the opportunity to derive prognostic models with increased statistical power for prediction of patient-relevant outcomes resulting from the interplay of multimorbidity and polypharmacy. This may help patients from this heterogeneous group to be stratified according to risk and enable clinicians to identify patients that are likely to benefit most from resource/time-intensive interventions. The aim of this manuscript is to describe the rationale behind PROPERmed collaboration, characteristics of the included studies/participants, development of the harmonized IPD database and challenges faced during this process.

Changes in prescribed medicines in older patients with multimorbidity and polypharmacy in general practice

Background

Treatment complexity rises in line with the number of drugs, single doses, and administration methods, thereby threatening patient adherence. Patients with multimorbidity often need flexible, individualised treatment regimens, but alterations during the course of treatment may further increase complexity. The objective of our study was to explore medication changes in older patients with multimorbidity and polypharmacy in general practice.

Methods

We retrospectively analysed data from the cluster-randomised PRIMUM trial (PRIoritisation of MUltimedication in Multimorbidity) conducted in 72 general practices. We developed an algorithm for active pharmaceutical ingredients (API), strength, dosage, and administration method to assess changes in physician-reported medication data during two intervals (baseline to six-months: ∆₁; six- to nine-months: ∆₂), analysed them descriptively at prescription and patient levels, and checked for intervention effects.

Results

Of 502 patients (median age 72 years, 52% female), 464 completed the study. Changes occurred in 98.6% of patients (changes were 19% more likely in the intervention group): API changes during ∆₁ and ∆₂ occurred in 414 (82.5%) and 338 (67.3%) of patients, dosage alterations in 372 (74.1%) and 296 (59.2%), and changes in API strength in 158 (31.5%) and 138 (27.5%) respectively. Administration method changed in 79 (16%) of patients in both ∆₁ and ∆₂. Simvastatin, metformin and aspirin were most frequently subject to alterations.

Conclusion

Medication regimens in older patients with multimorbidity and polypharmacy changed frequently. These are mostly due to discontinuations and dosage alterations, followed by additions and restarts. These findings cast doubt on the effectiveness of cross-sectional assessments of medication and support longitudinal assessments where possible.

Trial registration.

1. Prospective registration: Trial registration number: NCT01171339; Name of registry: ClinicalTrials.gov; Date of registration: July 27, 2010; Date of enrolment of the first participant to the trial: August 12, 2010.

2. Peer reviewed trial registration: Trial registration number: ISRCTN99526053; Name of registry: Controlled Trials; Date of registration: August 31, 2010; Date of enrolment of the first participant to the trial: August 12, 2010.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12875-018-0825-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Effectiveness of a complex intervention on Prioritising Multimedication in Multimorbidity (PRIMUM) in primary care: results of a pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVES

Investigate the effectiveness of a complex intervention aimed at improving the appropriateness of medication in older patients with multimorbidity in general practice.

DESIGN

Pragmatic, cluster randomised controlled trial with general practice as unit of randomisation.

SETTING

72 general practices in Hesse, Germany.

PARTICIPANTS

505 randomly sampled, cognitively intact patients (≥60 years, ≥3 chronic conditions under pharmacological treatment, ≥5 long-term drug prescriptions with systemic effects); 465 patients and 71 practices completed the study.

INTERVENTIONS

Intervention group (IG): The healthcare assistant conducted a checklist-based interview with patients on medication-related problems and reconciled their medications. Assisted by a computerised decision support system, the general practitioner optimised medication, discussed it with patients and adjusted it accordingly. The control group (CG) continued with usual care.

OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was a modified Medication Appropriateness Index (MAI, excluding item 10 on cost-effectiveness), assessed in blinded medication reviews and calculated as the difference between baseline and after 6 months; secondary outcomes after 6 and 9 months' follow-up: quality of life, functioning, medication adherence, and so on.

RESULTS

At baseline, a high proportion of patients had appropriate to mildly inappropriate prescriptions (MAI 0-5 points: n=350 patients). Randomisation revealed balanced groups (IG: 36 practices/252 patients; CG: 36/253). Intervention had no significant effect on primary outcome: mean MAI sum scores decreased by 0.3 points in IG and 0.8 points in CG, resulting in a non-significant adjusted mean difference of 0.7 (95% CI -0.2 to 1.6) points in favour of CG. Secondary outcomes showed non-significant changes (quality of life slightly improved in IG but continued to decline in CG) or remained stable (functioning, medication adherence).

CONCLUSIONS

The intervention had no significant effects. Many patients already received appropriate prescriptions and enjoyed good quality of life and functional status. We can therefore conclude that in our study, there was not enough scope for improvement.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN99526053. NCT01171339; Results.

How can we define and analyse drug exposure more precisely to improve the prediction of hospitalizations in longitudinal (claims) data?

BACKGROUND

Risk prediction models can be powerful tools to support clinical decision-making, to help targeting interventions, and, thus, to improve clinical and economic outcomes, provided that model performance is good and sensitivity and specificity are well balanced. Drug utilization as a potential risk factor for unplanned hospitalizations has recently emerged as a meaningful predictor variable in such models. Drug treatment is a rather unstable (i.e. time-dependent) phenomenon and most drug-induced events are concentration-dependent and therefore individual drug exposure will likely modulate the risk. This especially applies to longitudinal monitoring of appropriate drug treatment within claims data as another promising application for prediction models.

METHODS AND RESULTS

To guide future research towards this direction, we firstly reviewed current risk prediction models for unplanned hospitalizations that explicitly included information on drug utilization and were surprised to find that these models rarely attempted to consider dose and frequent modulators of drug clearance such as interactions with co-medication or co-morbidities. As another example, they often presumed class effects where in fact, differences between active moieties were well established. In addition, the study designs and statistical risk analysis disregarded the fact that medication and risk modulators and, thus, adverse events can vary over time. In a simulation study, we therefore evaluated the potential benefit of time-dependent Cox models over standard binary regression approaches with a fixed follow-up period.

CONCLUSIONS

Longitudinal drug information could be utilized much more efficiently both by precisely estimating individual drug exposure and by applying more refined statistical methodology to account for time-dependent drug utilization patterns.

Too many, too few, or too unsafe? Impact of inappropriate prescribing on mortality, and hospitalization in a cohort of community-dwelling oldest old

AIMS

Little is known about the impact of inappropriate prescribing (IP) in community-dwelling adults, aged 80 years and older. The prevalence at baseline (November 2008September 2009) and impact of IP (misuse and underuse) after 18 months on mortality and hospitalization in a cohort of community-dwelling adults, aged 80 years and older (n = 503) was studied.

METHODS

Screening Tool of Older People's Prescriptions (STOPP-2, misuse) and Screening Tool to Alert to Right Treatment (START-2, underuse) criteria were cross-referenced and linked to the medication use (in Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical coding) and clinical problems. Survival analysis until death or first hospitalization was performed at 18 months after inclusion using Kaplan-Meier, with Cox regression to control for covariates.

RESULTS

Mean age was 84.4 (range 80-102) years. Mean number of medications prescribed was 5 (range 0-16). Polypharmacy (≥5 medications, 58%), underuse (67%) and misuse (56%) were high. Underuse and misuse coexisted in 40% and were absent in 17% of the population. A higher number of prescribed medications was correlated with more misused medications (r_s  = .51, P < 0.001) and underused medications (r_s  = .26, P < 0.001). Mortality and hospitalization rate were 8.9%, and 31.0%, respectively. After adjustment for number of medications and misused medications, there was an increased risk of mortality (HR 1.39, 95% CI 1.10, 1.76) and hospitalization (HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.10, 1.45) for every additional underused medication. Associations with misuse were less clear.

CONCLUSION

IP (polypharmacy, underuse and misuse) was highly prevalent in adults, aged 80 years and older. Surprisingly, underuse and not misuse had strong associations with mortality and hospitalization.