Improved Prediction of Survival by a Risk Factor-Integrating Inflammatory Score in Sorafenib-Treated Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Clinicopathological Aspects and Inflammation-Immune Markers in Alcohol and/or Hepatitis C Virus-Induced Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients Treated With Sorafenib

Background

Tyrosine kinase inhibitors have been used to treat hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but the outcomes of patients under treatment vary. Since the roles of clinicopathological aspects and markers of chronic inflammation/immune homeostasis in the outcome of HCC patients treated with sorafenib are still unclear, these were the aims of this study.

Methods

Patients with alcohol-induced and/or hepatitis C virus (HCV)-induced HCC (n = 182) uniformly treated with sorafenib were included in the study. Baseline clinicopathological aspects of patients were computed from the medical records. The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR), systemic inflammation response index (SIRI), and systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) were obtained from the hematological exam performed before the administration of sorafenib. Overall survival (OS) was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier probabilities, log-rank test, and univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard ratio (HR) analyses.

Results

In multivariate analysis, alpha-foetoprotein (AFP) level and Child-Pugh score were predictors of OS. Patients with AFP levels higher than 157 ng/mL and Child-Pugh B or C had 1.40 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03 - 1.91, P = 0.03) and 1.64 (95% CI: 1.07 - 2.52, P = 0.02) more chances of evolving to death than the remaining patients, respectively. NLR, PLR, LMR, SIRI, and SII did not alter the OS of HCC patients.

Conclusions

AFP level and Child-Pugh score act as independent prognostic factors in patients with alcohol and/or HCV-induced HCC treated with sorafenib, but markers of chronic inflammation/immune homeostasis seem not to alter the outcome of patients with HCC induced by alcohol and/or HCV.

Development of a Multivariate Prognostic Model for Lenvatinib Treatment in Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Lenvatinib is a first-line agent for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but individual responses to treatment are highly heterogeneous. The aim of this study was to investigate the clinical parameters that influence the efficacy of Lenvatinib and to develop a prognostic model.

METHODS

We retrospectively enrolled 333 Lenvatinib-treated patients with HCC with a median age of 57 years. Two hundred nd sixty-three of these patients had BCLC (2022) stage C. The median overall survival (mOS) time within the cohort was 12.1 months, and the median progression-free survival (mPFS) time was 4.7 months. Univariate Cox regression, best subset regression, and Lasso regression were used to screen primary variables for possible contribution to OS, multivariate Cox analysis was used to fit selected models, and the final model was selected using the maximum area under the curve (AUC) and minimum AIC. Receiver operating curves (ROC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis were plotted to assess model performance, and 5-fold cross-validation was performed for internal validation. X-tile software was used to select the best cutoff points and to divide the study cohort into 3 different risk groups.

RESULTS

Seven variables were included in the final model: BCLC stage, prior transarterial chemoembolization and immunotherapy history, tumor number, prognostic nutritional index, log (alpha-fetoprotein), and log (platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio). We named this final model the "multivariate prognostic model for Lenvatinib" (MPML), and a nomogram was constructed to predict the probability of survival at 6, 9, and 12 months. The MPML had good discrimination, calibration, and applicability. Cross-validation showed mean AUC values of 0.7779, 0.7738, and 0.7871 at 6, 9, and 12 months, respectively. According to nomogram points, mOS time was 21.57, 8.70, and 5.37 months in the low, medium, and high-risk groups, respectively (P < .001), and these differences were also observed in the PFS survival curve (P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

The MPML stratified patients according to baseline clinical characteristics had a strong performance in predicting Lenvatinib efficacy and has the potential for use as an auxiliary clinical tool for individualized decision-making.

Prognostic implications of systemic immune-inflammation index in patients with bone metastases from hepatocellular carcinoma treated with radiotherapy

Background

Previous studies have shown that systemic inflammation indicators could predict the survival outcomes of patients with malignant tumors receiving various treatments. Radiotherapy, as a crucial treatment modality, effectively alleviates discomfort in patients with bone metastasis (BM) and greatly improves the quality of life for them. This study aimed to investigate the prognostic value of systemic inflammation index in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients with BM treated with radiotherapy.

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed clinical data collected from HCC patients with BM who received radiotherapy in our institution between January 2017 and December 2021. The pre-treatment neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) were derived to determine their relationship with overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS), using the Kaplan-Meier survival curves. The optimal cut-off value of the systemic inflammation indicators for predicting prognosis was assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to ultimately evaluate the factors associated with survival.

Results

The study included 239 patients with a median 14-month follow-up. The median OS was 18 months (95% confidence interval [CI] = 12.0-24.0) and the median PFS was 8.5 months (95% CI = 6.5-9.5). The optimal cut-off values for the patients were determined by ROC curve analysis as follows: SII =395.05, NLR=5.43 and PLR = 108.23. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values for SII, NLR and PLR in disease control prediction were 0.750, 0.665 and 0.676, respectively. Elevated systemic immune-inflammation index (SII>395.05) and higher NLR (NLR>5.43) were independently associated with poor OS and PFS. In multivariate analysis, Child-Pugh class (P = 0.038), intrahepatic tumor controlled (P = 0.019), SII (P = 0.001) and NLR (P = 0.007) were independent prognostic factors of OS and Child-Pugh class (P = 0.042), SII (P < 0.001) and NLR (P = 0.002) were independently correlated with PFS.

Conclusion

NLR and SII were associated with poor prognosis in HCC patients with BM receiving radiotherapy and might be considered reliable and independent prognostic biomarkers for HCC patients with BM.

Peripheral immune factors aiding clinical parameter for better early recurrence prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma after thermal ablation

OBJECTIVES

Current predictors are largely unsatisfied for early recurrence (ER) of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after thermal ablation. We aimed to explore the prognostic value of peripheral immune factors (PIFs) for better ER prediction of HCC after thermal ablation.

METHODS

Patients who received peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) tests before thermal ablation were included. Clinical parameters and 18 PIFs were selected to construct Model^Clin, Model^PIFs and the hybrid Model^PIFs-Clin. Model performances were evaluated using area under the curve (AUC), and recurrence-free survival (RFS) were analyzed by Kaplan-Meier analysis and log-rank tests.

RESULTS

244 patients were included and were randomly divided in 3:1 ratio to discovery and validation cohorts. Clinical parameters including tumor size and AFP, and PIFs including neutrophils, platelets, CD3⁺CD16⁺CD56⁺ NKT and CD8⁺CD28^- T lymphocytes were selected. The Model^PIFs-Clin showed increase in predictive performance compared with Model^Clin, with the AUC improved from 0.664 (95%CI:0.588-0.740) to 0.801 (95%CI:0.734-0.867) in discovery cohort (p < 0.0001), and from 0.645 (95%CI:0.510-0.781) to 0.737(95%CI:0.608-0.865) in validation cohort (p = 0.1006). Model^PIFs-Clin enabled ER risk stratification of patients. Patients predicted in Model^PIFs-Clin high-risk subgroup had a poor RFS compared with those predicted as Model^PIFs-Clin low-risk subgroup, with the median RFS was 18.00 month versus 100.78 month in discovery cohort (p < 0.0001); and 24.00 month versus 60.35 month in validation cohort (p = 0.288). Patients in different risk subgroups exhibited distinct peripheral immune contexture.

CONCLUSIONS

Peripheral immune cells aiding clinical parameters boosted the prediction ability for ER of HCC after thermal ablation, which be helpful for pre-ablation ER risk stratification.

Prognostic Value of Inflammation-Immunity-Nutrition Score and Inflammatory Burden Index for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients After Hepatectomy

PURPOSE

The study aimed to investigate the ability of inflammation-immunity-nutrition score (IINS) and inflammatory burden index (IBI), individually or in combination, to predict prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients after hepatectomy.

METHODS

A total of 701 patients who underwent HCC resection at Guangxi Medical University Cancer Hospital were enrolled in the study. An IINS ranging from 0 to 3 was defined based on preoperative C-reactive protein (CRP), lymphocyte count, and serum albumin level, while an IBI was based on CRP and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio. The prognostic value of IINS and IBI was assessed using univariate and multivariate Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier survival curves. The concordance index and calibration curve were used for internal validation of models. Decision curve analysis, net reclassification index and integrated discrimination improvement were used to compare the predictive performance of the models with traditional staging systems.

RESULTS

IINS and IBI were able to predict poor prognosis in HCC patients after hepatectomy, and a nomogram based on the IINS predicted survival at 1, 3, and 5 years better than other models or traditional staging systems.

CONCLUSION

IINS may be accurate predictors of survival in HCC patients after hepatectomy, with potentially greater prognostic value than conventional markers.

Prediction Model and Nomogram of Early Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma after Radiofrequency Ablation Based on Logistic Regression Analysis

The purpose of this study was to screen for high-risk factors leading to the early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after radiofrequency ablation (RFA) and to construct a prediction model and nomogram. This retrospective study included 108 patients with primary HCC who underwent RFA treatment at the Harbin Medical University Cancer Hospital between January 2018 and June 2019. Four risk factors were screened for using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses: number of tumors (hazard ratio [HR] = 14.684, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.099-196.215, p = 0.042), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) (HR = 2.178, 95% CI: 1.003-4.730, p = 0.049), contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) performance (HR = 6.482, 95% CI: 1.161-36.184, p = 0.033) and α-fetoprotein (AFP) level (HR = 1.001, 95% CI: 1.000-1.003, p = 0.040). We established a prediction model: Logit(p) = -3.096 + 2.827 × (number of tumors >1 = 1) + 1.851 × (CEUS revealing rapid enhancement of blood flow signal in the arterial phase and clearance in the portal phase = 1) + 1.941 × (NLR >1.55 = 1) + 0.257 × (AFP >32.545 = 1). Through clinical decision curve analysis, the model's threshold was 0.043-0.873, indicating a high clinical value. Patients with a high AFP level, typical CEUS enhancement pattern, multiple tumors and elevated NLR are more likely to relapse early.

Prognostic models for outcome prediction in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma treated by systemic therapy: a systematic review and critical appraisal

Objective

To describe and analyze the predictive models of the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing systemic treatment.

Design

Systematic review.

Data sources

PubMed and Embase until December 2020 and manually searched references from eligible articles.

Eligibility criteria for study selection

The development, validation, or updating of prognostic models of patients with HCC after systemic treatment.

Results

The systematic search yielded 42 eligible articles: 28 articles described the development of 28 prognostic models of patients with HCC treated with systemic therapy, and 14 articles described the external validation of 32 existing prognostic models of patients with HCC undergoing systemic treatment. Among the 28 prognostic models, six were developed based on genes, of which five were expressed in full equations; the other 22 prognostic models were developed based on common clinical factors. Of the 28 prognostic models, 11 were validated both internally and externally, nine were validated only internally, two were validated only externally, and the remaining six models did not undergo any type of validation. Among the 28 prognostic models, the most common systemic treatment was sorafenib (n = 19); the most prevalent endpoint was overall survival (n = 28); and the most commonly used predictors were alpha-fetoprotein (n = 15), bilirubin (n = 8), albumin (n = 8), Child–Pugh score (n = 8), extrahepatic metastasis (n = 7), and tumor size (n = 7). Further, among 32 externally validated prognostic models, 12 were externally validated > 3 times.

Conclusions

This study describes and analyzes the prognostic models developed and validated for patients with HCC who have undergone systemic treatment. The results show that there are some methodological flaws in the model development process, and that external validation is rarely performed. Future research should focus on validating and updating existing models, and evaluating the effects of these models in clinical practice.

Systematic review registration

PROSPERO CRD42020200187.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-022-09841-5.

Nomogram based on inflammation-related markers for predicting survival of patients undergoing hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Previous nomograms for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) did not include the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) or platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR). This study aimed to establish an effective nomogram capable of estimating the association between preoperative inflammatory factors and overall survival (OS) of HCC patients after hepatectomy.

AIM

To analyse the factors affecting the prognosis of HCC and establish a nomogram.

METHODS

A total of 626 HCC patients (410 training set patients from the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University and 216 validation set patients from the First Affiliated Hospital of University of Science and Technology of China) underwent hepatectomy from January 2014 to December 2017 and were followed up every 3–6 mo. The nomogram was based on OS-related independent risk factors identified by Cox regression analysis. The C-index, calibration curve, and area under the curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the nomogram’s accuracy.

RESULTS

The 1-, 2- and 3-year OS rates were 79.0%, 68.0% and 45.4% in the training cohort (median OS = 34 mo) and 92.1%, 73.9% and 51.2% in the validation cohort (median OS = 38 mo). Higher α-fetoprotein [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.812, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.343–2.444], NLR (HR = 2.480, 95%CI: 1.856–3.312) and PLR (HR = 1.974, 95%CI: 1.490–2.616), tumour size ≥ 5 cm (HR = 1.323, 95%CI: 1.002–1.747), and poor differentiation (HR = 3.207, 95%CI: 1.944–5.290) were significantly associated with shortened OS. The developed nomogram integrating these variables showed good reliability in both the training (C-index = 0.71) and validation cohorts (C-index = 0.75). For predicting 1-, 2- and 3-year OS, the nomogram had AUCs of 0.781, 0.743 and 0.706 in the training cohort and 0.789, 0.815 and 0.813 in the validation cohort. The nomogram was more accurate in predicting prognosis than the AJCC TNM staging system.

CONCLUSION

The prognostic nomogram combining pathological characteristics and inflammation indicators could provide a more accurate individualized risk estimate for the OS of HCC patients with hepatectomy.

Usefulness of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) as a prognostic predictor after treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma." Review article

The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is an inflammatory marker which has been investigated as a prognostic indicator in post-therapeutic recurrence and survival of patients with HCC. Our aim was to review all studies that assessed the prognostic value of pre-treatment NLR in predicting patient survival, cancer recurrence, and graft survival in patients undergoing various therapies for HCC. We searched the database of PubMed and Google Scholar to review all studies that have the word "NLR" and the word "HCC." We included all studies that assessed pre-treatment NLR as a prognostic factor in predicting outcomes in HCC patients. We excluded studies that assessed the correlation between post-treatment NLR or dynamic changes in NLR after treatment and HCC outcomes in an effort to minimize the confounding effect of each treatment on NLR. We reviewed 123 studies that studied the correlation between pre-treatment NLR and patient survival, 72 studies that evaluated the correlation between pre-treatment NLR and tumor recurrence, 21 studies that evaluated the correlation between NLR and tumor behavior, and 4 studies that assessed the correlation between NLR and graft survival. We found a remarkable heterogeneity between the methods of the studies, which is likely responsible for the differences in outcomes. The majority of the studies suggested a correlation between higher levels of pre-treatment NLR and poor outcomes. We concluded that NLR is a reliable and inexpensive biomarker and should be incorporated into other prognostic models to help determine outcomes following HCC treatment.

Role of inflammatory markers in predicting hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after liver transplantation

Background

Liver transplantation (LT) is the best treatment for selected patients with cirrhosis and small hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who are not candidates for resection. The proinflammatory effects of systemic inflammatory response have been linked with HCC. Therefore, the measurement of inflammatory markers represents a significant tool to limit recurrence after LT.

Results

There are eleven patients with HCC recurrence post-transplantation. Pre-transplantation AFP can predict HCC recurrence with the best cutoff value of > 17.8 ng/ml with a sensitivity of 82% and specificity of 70%. Post-transplantation CRP can predict HCC recurrence with the best cutoff value of > 0.85 (mg/dl) with a sensitivity of 73% and specificity of 71%. Other inflammatory markers NLR and PLR were not significant in predicting HCC recurrence. Moreover, HCC recurrence significantly affects the outcome of patients undergoing LT (p value < 0.001) with a worse prognosis.

Conclusion

Our results showed additional benefits of inflammatory markers as CRP to standard parameters in predicting HCC recurrence to refine recipient selection and achieve better survival outcomes post-LT.

Meta-analysis and systematic review: Prevalence, graft failure, mortality, and post-operative thrombosis in liver transplant recipients with pre-operative portal vein thrombosis

AIMS

This study seeks to evaluate the association between pre-transplant portal vein thrombosis (PVT) and overall survival, graft failure, waitlist mortality, and post-operative PVT after liver transplantation.

METHODS

A conventional pairwise meta-analysis between patients with and without pre-transplant PVT was conducted using hazard ratios or odds ratios where appropriate.

RESULTS

Prevalence of preoperative PVT was 11.6% (CI 9.70-13.7%). Pre-operative PVT was associated with increased overall mortality (HR 1.45, 95% CI 1.27-1.65) and graft loss (HR 1.58, 95% CI 1.34-1.85). In particular, grade 3 (HR 1.59, 95% CI 1.00-2.51) and 4 (HR 2.24, 95% CI 1.45-3.45) PVT significantly increased mortality, but not grade 1 or 2 PVT. Patients with PVT receiving living donor (HR 1.54, 95% CI 1.24-1.91) and deceased donor (HR 1.52, 95% CI 1.21-1.92) liver transplantation had increased mortality, with no significant difference between transplant types (P = .13). Furthermore, pre-transplant PVT was associated with higher occurrence of post-transplant PVT (OR 5.06, 95% CI 3.89-6.57). Waitlist mortality was not significantly increased in patients with pre-transplant PVT.

CONCLUSION

Graft failure, mortality, and post-operative PVT are more common in pre-transplant PVT patients, especially in grade 3 or 4 PVT. Prophylactic anticoagulation can be considered to reduce re-thrombosis and improve survival.

A Nomogram-Based Prognostic Model for Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients Treated with Sorafenib: A Multicenter Study

Among scores and staging systems used for HCC, none showed a good prognostic ability in patients with advanced HCC treated with Sorafenib. We aimed to evaluate predictive factors of overall survival (OS) and drug response in HCC patients undergoing Sorafenib included in the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA.) multicenter cohort. Patients in the ITA.LI.CA database treated with Sorafenib and updated on 30 June 2019 were included. Demographic and clinical data before starting Sorafenib treatment were considered. For the evaluation of predictive factors for OS, a time-dependent Cox proportional hazard model was used. A total of 1107 patients were included in our analysis. The mean age was 64.3 years and 81.7% were male. Most patients were staged as BCLC B (205, 18.9%) or C (706, 65.1%). The median time of Sorafenib administration was 4 months (interquartile range (IQR) 2-12), and the median OS was 10 months (IQR: 4-20). A total of 263 patients (33.8%) out of 780 with available evaluation experienced objective tumoral response to Sorafenib. The Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) Performance Status (PS) (hazard ratio (HR) 1.284), maximum tumoral diameter (HR 1.100), plasma total bilirubin (HR 1.119), aspartate amino transferase assessed as multiple of the upper normal value (HR 1.032), alpha-fetoprotein ≥200 ng/mL (HR 1.342), hemoglobin (HR 0.903) and platelet count (HR 1.002) were associated with OS at multivariate Cox regression analysis. Drug response was predicted by maximum tumoral diameter and platelet count. A novel prognostic nomogram for patients undergoing Sorafenib is hereby proposed. The novelty introduced is the comprehensive patient's assessment using common markers of patient's general status, liver damage and function and HCC biology. Further studies are required to test its accuracy and provide external validation.

Inflammatory Marker Predicts Outcome of Oral Squamous Cell Carcinoma Receiving Chemo-Radiotherapy

Background

Inflammation is involved in the progression of oral squamous cell carcinoma. We therefore postulate that a blood-based inflammatory marker, the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, could help to predict the prognosis in patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma receiving chemo-radiotherapy, and build a prognostic nomogram.

Methods

In 111 cases of oral squamous cell carcinoma, several baseline variables, including inflammatory markers and lactate dehydrogenase, were measured within the week of chemo-radiotherapy initiation as predictors of mortality and separate risk scores were developed.

Results

Dichotomized neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio was found to be associated with AJCC stage (p<0.001). Patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma with a low neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio survived longer than those with a high neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (overall survival HR=2.39, 95% CI 1.24-4.61, p=0.009). The Harrell's concordance (C)-statistic of the nomogram was 0.74 and the calibration curve demonstrated the goodness of fit.

Conclusion

The inflammatory marker neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, obtained before chemo-radiotherapy, was an independent factor of survival prediction for oral squamous cell carcinoma. The nomogram incorporating immunological markers could more accurately predict individualized survival probability than the existing models. These findings are significant for the creation of personalized treatment strategies in the clinical setting.

Platelet-to-lymphocyte and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratios predict tumor size and survival in HCC patients: Retrospective study

Background

Inflammation is a recognized concomitant of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and its indices are prognostically useful.

Aims

To evaluate two commonly used inflammatory indices, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and the platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), to examine their relationship to maximum tumor diameter (MTD) and to survival.

Methods

A database of 1024 prospectively-accrued HCC patients was examined, who had full baseline tumor parameter data, including CT scan information on HCC size and whose survival was known. Analyses of NLR and PLR were correlated to MDT and to survival. NLR and PLR cutoffs were calculated from receiver operator characteristic curves.

Results

Every MTD pair had significantly different PLR values, for MTD groups of groups <2/≥2, <3/≥3, <4/≥4, <5/≥5 cm. However there were few significant differences in NLR values. Logistic regression models of different MTD groups likewise showed significance for PLR. Patients with both low NLR and low PLR had the longest overall survival compared to all the other 3 combinations of NLR and PLR. In a Cox regression analysis, univariate models on NLR (≤3.02/>3.02) and PLR (≤6.82/>6.82) groups, showed significance for PLR, p = 0.034 and approaching significance for NLR, p = 0.057.

Conclusions

MTD pairs down to <2/≥2 cm showed significance for PLR, survival showed significance for PLR and almost for NLR.

•

In HCC studies, there is a need for tumor markers, especially in that 50% of patients who are AFP negative. Most HCCs present at a size that is too large for curative therapies.

•

We evaluated the commonly used NLR and PLR in relation to the smallest detectable HCC tumor size and to survival.

•

We found that PLR is elevated down to resec cm diameter tumors and both NLR and PLR relate to survival.

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PLR thus has potential for widespread use in HCC prognostication and in screening patients with hepatitis or cirrhosis to identify small and thus potentially curable tumors.