Yan J, Luo H, Nie Q, Hu S, Yu Q, Wang X. A Scoring System Based on Laboratory Parameters and Clinical Features to Predict Unfavorable Treatment Outcomes in Multidrug- and Rifampicin-Resistant Tuberculosis Patients.
Infect Drug Resist 2023;
16:225-237. [PMID:
36647452 PMCID:
PMC9840374 DOI:
10.2147/idr.s397304]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/12/2022] [Accepted: 12/23/2022] [Indexed: 01/11/2023] Open
Abstract
Background
The growth of antibiotic resistance to Mycobacterium TB represents a major barrier to the goal of "Ending the global TB epidemics". This study aimed to develop and validate a simple clinical scoring system to predict the unfavorable treatment outcomes (UTO) in multidrug- and rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis (MDR/RR-TB) patients.
Methods
A total of 333 MDR/RR-TB patients were recruited retrospectively. The clinical, radiological and laboratory features were gathered and selected by lasso regression. These variables with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC)>0.6 were subsequently submitted to multivariate logistic analysis. The binomial logistic model was used for establishing a scoring system based on the nomogram at the training set (N = 241). Then, another independent set was used to validate the scoring system (N = 92).
Results
The new scoring system consists of age (8 points), education level (10 points), bronchiectasis (4 points), red blood cell distribution width-coefficient of variation (RDW-CV) (7 points), international normalized ratio (INR) (7 points), albumin to globulin ratio (AGR) (5 points), and C-reactive protein to prealbumin ratio (CPR) (6 points). The scoring system identifying UTO has a discriminatory power of 0.887 (95% CI=0.835-0.939) in the training set, and 0.805 (95% CI=0.714-0.896) in the validation set. In addition, the scoring system is used exclusively to predict the death of MDR/RR-TB and has shown excellent performance in both training and validation sets, with AUC of 0.930 (95% CI=0.872-0.989) and 0.872 (95% CI=0.778-0.967), respectively.
Conclusion
This novel scoring system based on seven accessible predictors has exhibited good predictive performance in predicting UTO, especially in predicting death risk.
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