Serum lipid levels, body mass index, and their role in coronary artery calcification: a polygenic analysis

Federated machine learning for a facilitated implementation of Artificial Intelligence in healthcare - a proof of concept study for the prediction of coronary artery calcification scores

The implementation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) still faces significant hurdles and one key factor is the access to data. One approach that could support that is federated machine learning (FL) since it allows for privacy preserving data access. For this proof of concept, a prediction model for coronary artery calcification scores (CACS) has been applied. The FL was trained based on the data in the different institutions, while the centralized machine learning model was trained on one allocation of data. Both algorithms predict patients with risk scores ≥5 based on age, biological sex, waist circumference, dyslipidemia and HbA1c. The centralized model yields a sensitivity of c. 66% and a specificity of c. 70%. The FL slightly outperforms that with a sensitivity of 67% while slightly underperforming it with a specificity of 69%. It could be demonstrated that CACS prediction is feasible via both, a centralized and an FL approach, and that both show very comparable accuracy. In order to increase accuracy, additional and a higher volume of patient data is required and for that FL is utterly necessary. The developed "CACulator" serves as proof of concept, is available as research tool and shall support future research to facilitate AI implementation.

Association of Genetically Predicted Lipid Levels With the Extent of Coronary Atherosclerosis in Icelandic Adults

Importance

Genetic studies have evaluated the influence of blood lipid levels on the risk of coronary artery disease (CAD), but less is known about how they are associated with the extent of coronary atherosclerosis.

Objective

To estimate the contributions of genetically predicted blood lipid levels on the extent of coronary atherosclerosis.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This genetic study included Icelandic adults who had undergone coronary angiography or assessment of coronary artery calcium using cardiac computed tomography. The study incorporates data collected from January 1987 to December 2017 in Iceland in the Swedish Coronary Angiography and Angioplasty Registry and 2 registries of individuals who had undergone percutaneous coronary interventions and coronary artery bypass grafting. For each participant, genetic scores were calculated for levels of non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL-C), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and triglycerides, based on reported effect sizes of 345 independent, lipid-associated variants. The genetic scores' predictive ability for lipid levels was assessed in more than 87 000 Icelandic adults. A mendelian randomization approach was used to estimate the contribution of each lipid trait.

Exposures

Genetic scores for levels of non-HDL-C, LDL-C, HDL-C, and triglycerides.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The extent of angiographic CAD and coronary artery calcium quantity.

Results

A total of 12 460 adults (mean [SD] age, 65.1 [10.7] years; 8383 men [67.3%]) underwent coronary angiography, and 4837 had coronary artery calcium assessed by computed tomography. A genetically predicted increase in non-HDL-C levels by 1 SD (38 mg/dL [to convert to millimoles per liter, multiply by 0.0259]) was associated with greater odds of obstructive CAD (odds ratio [OR], 1.83 [95% CI, 1.63-2.07]; P = 2.8 × 10-23). Among patients with obstructive CAD, there were significant associations with multivessel disease (OR, 1.26 [95% CI, 1.11-1.44]; P = 4.1 × 10-4) and 3-vessel disease (OR, 1.47 [95% CI, 1.26-1.72]; P = 9.2 × 10-7). There were also significant associations with the presence of coronary artery calcium (OR, 2.04 [95% CI, 1.70-2.44]; P = 5.3 × 10-15) and loge-transformed coronary artery calcium (effect, 0.70 [95% CI, 0.53-0.87]; P = 1.0 × 10-15). Genetically predicted levels of non-HDL-C remained associated with obstructive CAD and coronary artery calcium extent even after accounting for the association with LDL-C. Genetically predicted levels of HDL-C and triglycerides were associated individually with the extent of coronary atherosclerosis, but not after accounting for the association with non-HDL cholesterol.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study, genetically predicted levels of non-HDL-C were associated with the extent of coronary atherosclerosis as estimated by 2 different methods. The association was stronger than for genetically predicted levels of LDL-C. These findings further support the notion that non-HDL-C may be a better marker of the overall burden of atherogenic lipoproteins than LDL-C.

Risk prediction for coronary heart disease by a genetic risk score - results from the Heinz Nixdorf Recall study

BACKGROUND

A Genetic risk score for coronary artery disease (CAD) improves the ability of predicting coronary heart disease (CHD). It is unclear whether i) the use of a CAD genetic risk score is superior to the measurement of coronary artery calcification (CAC) for CHD risk assessment and ii) the CHD risk assessment using a CAD genetic risk score differs between men and women.

METHODS

We included 4041 participants (age-range: 45-76 years, 1919 men) of the Heinz Nixdorf Recall study without CHD or stroke at baseline. A standardized weighted CAD genetic risk score was constructed using 70 known genetic variants. The risk score was divided into quintiles (Q1-Q5). We specified low (Q1), intermediate (Q2-Q4) and high (Q5) genetic risk groups. Incident CHD was defined as fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke and coronary death. The association between the genetic risk score and genetic risk groups with incident CHD was assessed using Cox models to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95%-confidence intervals (CI). The models were adjusted by age and sex (Model1), as well as by established CHD risk factors (RF) and CAC (Model2). The analyses were further stratified by sex and controlled for multiple testing.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up time of 11.6 ± 3.7 years, 343 participants experienced CHD events (219 men). Per-standard deviation (SD) increase in the genetic risk score was associated with 18% increased risk for incident CHD (Model1: p = 0.002) which did not change after full adjustment (Model2: HR = 1.18 per-SD (p = 0.003)). In Model2 we observed a 60% increased CHD risk in the high (p = 0.009) compared to the low genetic risk group. Stratifying by sex, only men showed statistically significantly higher risk for CHD (Model2: HR = 1.23 per-SD (p = 0.004); intermediate: HR = 1.52 (p = 0.04) and high: HR = 1.88 (p = 0.008)) with no statistically significant risk observed in women.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that the CAD genetic risk score could be useful for CHD risk prediction, at least in men belonging to the higher genetic risk group, but it does not outbalance the value of CT-based quantification of CAC which works independently on both men and women and allows better risk stratification in both the genders.

Genetic variations in G-protein signal pathways influence progression of coronary artery calcification: Results from the Heinz Nixdorf Recall study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Coronary artery calcification (CAC) is one of the most sensitive and specific markers of coronary atherosclerosis and believed to be heritable. We hypothesized that functionally relevant single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the G-protein signal pathway, which have been previously related to coronary artery disease, are associated with CAC progression.

METHODS

3108 participants from the Heinz Nixdorf Recall study with CAC measurements at both baseline (CACb) and 5-year follow-up (CAC5y) were included. We genotyped SNPs rs1042714 (ADRB2), rs6026584 and rs12481583 (GNAS), and rs5443 (GNB3) and defined a priori risk alleles derived from literature data. Regression analyses were applied to measures of 5-year CAC progression, unadjusted, adjusted for age, sex, and adjusted for age, sex, log(CACb+1) as well as for cardiovascular risk factors.

RESULTS

The presence of one or more risk alleles was associated with a 26.9% (95% CI 5.5-52.4) increase in 5-year CAC progression (p = 0.011) and a 29.2% (95% CI 5.9-57.6) accelerated increase of CAC over the 5-year period compared to what was expected with respect to the baseline CAC percentile value (p = 0.012). Each of those risk alleles increased the 5-year CAC progression by 4.4% (95% CI 1.3-7.6, p = 0.006) and resulted in a 4.9% accelerated increase of CAC over the 5-year period (95% CI 1.6-8.4, p = 0.004). These unadjusted data did not change after adjustment.

CONCLUSIONS

Genetic variations in the G-protein signal pathway are associated with CAC progression in a cumulative fashion, indicating the importance of the pathway for genetic heritability in CAC progression and coronary artery disease.

Genetic risk scores for coronary artery disease and its traditional risk factors: Their role in the progression of coronary artery calcification-Results of the Heinz Nixdorf Recall study

Background

Atherosclerosis is the primary cause of coronary artery disease (CAD). Several observational studies have examined the association of traditional CAD risk factors with the progression of coronary artery calcification (CAC). In our study we investigated the effect of 11 different genetic risk scores associated with CAD and CAD risk factors on the progression of CAC.

Methods and results

We included 3097 participants from the Heinz Nixdorf Recall study who had available CAC measurements at baseline (CAC_b) and at the 5-year follow-up (CAC_5y). A weighted genetic risk score for CAD and each of the CAD-associated risk factors was constructed. Multiple regression analyses were applied to i) the difference between the observed log(CAC_5y+1) (log(obs)) and expected log(CAC_5y+1) (log(exp)) at the 5-year follow-up following the individual’s log(CAC_b+1) percentile for the time between scans (log(obs)–log(exp)) and ii) the 5-year CAC progression, defined as 5*(log(CAC_5y+1)–log(CAC_b+1))/time between the scans, adjusted for age, sex, and log(CAC_b+1) as well as for risk factors. The median percent deviation from the expected (CAC_5y+1) and the 5-year progression of (CAC+1) in our study were 0 (first quartile: Q1; third quartile: Q3: -0.32; 0.48) and 45.4% (0%; 171.0%) respectively. In the age-, sex- and log(CAC_b+1)-adjusted model, the per-standard deviation (SD) increase in CAD genetic risk score was associated with the percent deviation from the expected (CAC_5y+1) (9.7% (95% confidence interval: 5.2%; 14.5%), p = 1.6x10^-5) and the 5-year progression of CAC (7.1% (3.0%; 11.4%), p = 0.0005). The CAD genetic risk score explains an additional 0.6% of the observed phenotypic variance for “log(obs)–log(exp)” and 0.4% for 5-year progression of CAC. Additionally, the per-SD increase in the CAC genetic risk score was associated with the percent deviation from the expected (CAC_5y+1) (6.2% (1.9%; 10.8%, p = 0.005)) explaining an additional 0.2% of the observed phenotypic variance. However, the per-SD increase in the CAC genetic risk score was not associated with the 5-year progression of CAC (4.4% (0.4%; 8.5%), p = 0.03) after multiple testing. Adjusting for risk factors did not change the results. None of the other genetic risk scores showed an association with the percent deviation from the expected (CAC_5y+1) or with the 5-year progression of CAC.

Conclusions

The association of the CAC genetic risk score and the CAD genetic risk score provides evidence that genetic determinants for CAC and CAD influence the progression of CAC.

Pathophysiological and Genetic Aspects of Vascular Calcification

Recent evidence suggests that vascular calcification is an independent cardiovascular risk factor (CRF) of morbidity and mortality. New studies point out the existence of a complex physiopathological mechanism that involves inflammation, oxidation, the release of chemical mediators, and genetic factors that promote the osteochondrogenic differentiation of vascular smooth muscle cells (VSMC). This review will evaluate the main mechanisms involved in the pathophysiology and genetics modulation of the process of vascular calcification. Objective. A systematic review of the pathophysiology factors involved in vascular calcification and its genetic influence was performed. Methods. A systematic review was conducted in the Medline and PubMed databases and were searched for studies concerning vascular calcification using the keywords and studies published until 2020/01 in English. Inclusion Criteria. Studies in vitro, animal models, and humans. These include cohort (both retrospective and prospective cohort studies), case-control, cross-sectional, and systematic reviews. Exclusion Criteria. Studies before 2003 of the existing literature.

Correlation between risk factors of cerebrovascular disease and calcified plaque characteristics in patients with atherosclerotic severe carotid stenosis

Objectives: The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between the risk factors of cerebral vascular diseases (CVD) and the characteristics of calcified plaques in patients with severe carotid arteriosclerosis stenosis (SCAS).Methods: A total of 402 patients with SCAS who were treated in our hospital between January to December 2016 were included in this study. The patients were divided into calcified plaque group and non-calcified plaque group according to the ultrasonography and computerized tomography angiography (CTA) or digital subtraction angiography (DSA) imaging of SCAS-responsible plaque and the characteristics of calcified plaques evaluated by high-frequency ultrasound.Results: The patients with long-term diabetes mellitus or higher levels of fasting blood glucose were more likely to develop calcified plaques (P = 0.00 and P = 0.021, respectively). In addition, the patients with calcified plaques were mostly smokers (P = 0.016). Their smoking duration and accumulative smoking exposure were higher than those without calcified plaque (P = 0.006 and P = 0.007, respectively). The basal location of calcification (P = 0.004) and the type of patchy calcification (P = 0.00) were both easier to appear in smokers, while non-smokers were more likely to have small granular calcification (P = 0.002). Furthermore, the carotid plaque calcification with mixed-location were more frequently seen in patients with hypertension (P = 0.016). The risk factors independently associated with plaque calcification were significantly associated with smoking status, smoking age, and accumulative smoking exposure, as well as age and diabetes mellitus (all P < 0.05).Conclusion: Smoking, diabetes mellitus and age were independent risk factors for carotid plaque calcification. Smoking and hypertension were associated with specific locations and types of plaque calcification.

Comparison of Nongated Chest CT and Dedicated Calcium Scoring CT for Coronary Calcium Quantification Using a 256-Dector Row CT Scanner

BACKGROUND

Coronary artery calcification (CAC) is a marker of atherosclerosis and an independent risk factor for cardiac-related mortality and frequently detected on noncontrast chest CT. We aimed to investigate the reliability and accuracy of determining CAC using noncontrast, nongated chest CT with 256-detector row.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 1318 patients for chest examination were enrolled to undergo both nongated chest CT and dedicated calcium-scoring CT (CSCT) on a 256-detector row CT scanner. The chest CT was scanned in fast-helical mode with 8 cm collimation, 0.28 second rotation speed and pitch 0.992:1 to cover entire chest. CSCT used single prospective ECG-triggered cardiac axial mode with 0.28 second rotation speed covering only the heart. CAC scores (Agatston, mass, and volume) were determined using both image sets and were statistically compared.

RESULTS

Sensitivity and specificity of nongated chest CT for determining positive CAC was 94.8% (182/192) and 100%, respectively. The agreement in assessing the quantitative Agatston, volume, and mass scores between the nongated chest CT and CSCT was almost perfect, with the intraclass correlation coefficient values of 0.998, 0.999, and 0.999, respectively. Additionally, there was a good agreement in CAC quantification between the nongated chest CT and dedicated CSCT with small coefficient of variation: mass score (9.0%), volume score (9.5%), and Agatston score (12.6%).

CONCLUSION

Nongated chest CT with 256-detector row is a reliable imaging mode for detecting and quantifying calcifications in coronary arteries compared with dedicated calcium-scoring CT.

Coronary Artery Calcification and Rheumatoid Arthritis: Lack of Relationship to Risk Alleles for Coronary Artery Disease in the General Population

OBJECTIVE

Coronary artery disease (CAD) in the general population is characterized by an increased frequency of particular susceptibility single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Because the frequency of CAD is increased among patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA), we sought to determine whether the frequency of these SNPs is increased in RA patients with CAD, hypothesizing that RA could enhance CAD risk by acting through established genetic pathways predisposing to CAD.

METHODS

Coronary artery calcification (CAC) as detected by computed tomography was used as a measure of CAD in 561 patients with RA. One hundred SNPs associated with CAD in the general population were genotyped or imputed, and their relationship to CAC was established through multiple regression analysis for individual SNPs and a genetic risk score representing their cumulative effect.

RESULTS

Ninety-one CAD-related SNPs were genotyped successfully; of these, 81 exhibited no association with CAC (Agatston units) or different CAC categorizations, either individually or collectively, in the genetic risk score. Only rs579459 (ABO) and rs17676451 (HAL) had a consistent positive association between genotype and CAC, with a significant increase in the frequency of the effect allele in both homozygous and heterozygous genotype distributions. Five were variably negatively associated. Furthermore, a positive association between the Disease Activity Score in 28 joints and CAC was observed, and after adjustment for traditional cardiovascular risk factors, it was not modified by correcting for the CAD-related SNP genetic risk score.

CONCLUSION

The increased risk of CAC in patients with RA does not appear to operate primarily through established genetically regulated atherogenic mechanisms that are preponderant in the general population.

Cystatin C and Cardiovascular Disease: A Mendelian Randomization Study

BACKGROUND

Epidemiological studies show that high circulating cystatin C is associated with risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), independent of creatinine-based renal function measurements. It is unclear whether this relationship is causal, arises from residual confounding, and/or is a consequence of reverse causation.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to use Mendelian randomization to investigate whether cystatin C is causally related to CVD in the general population.

METHODS

We incorporated participant data from 16 prospective cohorts (n = 76,481) with 37,126 measures of cystatin C and added genetic data from 43 studies (n = 252,216) with 63,292 CVD events. We used the common variant rs911119 in CST3 as an instrumental variable to investigate the causal role of cystatin C in CVD, including coronary heart disease, ischemic stroke, and heart failure.

RESULTS

Cystatin C concentrations were associated with CVD risk after adjusting for age, sex, and traditional risk factors (relative risk: 1.82 per doubling of cystatin C; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.56 to 2.13; p = 2.12 × 10⁻¹⁴). The minor allele of rs911119 was associated with decreased serum cystatin C (6.13% per allele; 95% CI: 5.75 to 6.50; p = 5.95 × 10⁻²¹¹), explaining 2.8% of the observed variation in cystatin C. Mendelian randomization analysis did not provide evidence for a causal role of cystatin C, with a causal relative risk for CVD of 1.00 per doubling cystatin C (95% CI: 0.82 to 1.22; p = 0.994), which was statistically different from the observational estimate (p = 1.6 × 10⁻⁵). A causal effect of cystatin C was not detected for any individual component of CVD.

CONCLUSIONS

Mendelian randomization analyses did not support a causal role of cystatin C in the etiology of CVD. As such, therapeutics targeted at lowering circulating cystatin C are unlikely to be effective in preventing CVD.

Genetic analysis of emerging risk factors in coronary artery disease

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Type 2 diabetes (T2D), low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-c), body mass index (BMI), blood pressure and smoking are established risk factors that play a causal role in coronary artery disease (CAD). Numerous common genetic variants associating with these and other risk factors have been identified, but their association with CAD has not been comprehensively examined in a single study. Our goal was to comprehensively evaluate the associations of established and emerging risk factors with CAD using genetic variants identified from Genome-wide Association Studies (GWAS).

METHODS

We tested the effect of 60 traditional and putative risk factors with CAD, using summary statistics obtained in GWAS. We approximated the regression of a response variable onto an additive multi-SNP genetic risk score in the Coronary Artery DIsease Genomewide Replication And Meta-analysis (CARDIoGRAM) consortium dataset weighted by the effect of the SNP on the risk factors.

RESULTS

The strongest association with risk of CAD was for LDL-c SNPs (p = 3.96E-34). For non-established CAD risk factors, we found significant CAD associations for coronary artery calcification (CAC), Lp(a), LP-PLA2 activity, plaque, vWF and FVIII. In an attempt to identify independent associations between risk factors and CAD, only SNPs with an effect on the target trait were included. This identified CAD associations for Lp(a)(p = 1.77E-21), LDL-c (p = 4.16E-06), triglycerides (TG) (p = 1.94E-05), height (p = 2.06E-05), CAC (p = 3.13E-23) and carotid plaque (p = 2.08E-05).

CONCLUSIONS

We identified SNPs associated with the emerging risk factors Lp(a), TG, plaque, height and CAC to be independently associated with risk of CAD. This provides further support for-ongoing clinical trials of Lp(a) and TG, and suggests that CAC and plaque could be used as surrogate markers for CAD in clinical trials.

Current Applications of Genetic Risk Scores to Cardiovascular Outcomes and Subclinical Phenotypes

Genetic risk scores are a useful tool for examining the cumulative predictive ability of genetic variation on cardiovascular disease. Important considerations for creating genetic risk scores include the choice of genetic variants, weighting, and comparability across ethnicities. Genetic risk scores that use information from genome-wide meta-analyses can successfully predict cardiovascular outcomes and subclinical phenotypes, yet there is limited clinical utility of these scores beyond traditional cardiovascular risk factors in many populations. Novel uses of genetic risk scores include evaluating the genetic contribution of specific intermediate traits or risk factors to cardiovascular disease, risk prediction in high-risk populations, gene-by-environment interaction studies, and Mendelian randomization studies. Though questions remain about the ultimate clinical utility of the genetic risk score, further investigation in high-risk populations and new ways to combine genetic risk scores with traditional risk factors may prove to be fruitful.