Predicting Future Cardiovascular Events in Patients With Peripheral Artery Disease Using Electronic Health Record Data

Unsupervised classification of multi-contrast magnetic resonance histology of peripheral arterial disease lesions using a convolutional variational autoencoder with a Gaussian mixture model in latent space: A technical feasibility study

PURPOSE

To investigate the feasibility of a deep learning algorithm combining variational autoencoder (VAE) and two-dimensional (2D) convolutional neural networks (CNN) for automatically quantifying hard tissue presence and morphology in multi-contrast magnetic resonance (MR) images of peripheral arterial disease (PAD) occlusive lesions.

METHODS

Multi-contrast MR images (T2-weighted and ultrashort echo time) were acquired from lesions harvested from six amputated legs with high isotropic spatial resolution (0.078 mm and 0.156 mm, respectively) at 9.4 T. A total of 4014 pseudo-color combined images were generated, with 75% used to train a VAE employing custom 2D CNN layers. A Gaussian mixture model (GMM) was employed to classify the latent space data into four tissue classes: I) concentric calcified (c), II) eccentric calcified (e), III) occluded with hard tissue (h) and IV) occluded with soft tissue (s). Test image probabilities, encoded by the trained VAE were used to evaluate model performance.

RESULTS

GMM component classification probabilities ranged from 0.92 to 0.97 for class (c), 1.00 for class (e), 0.82-0.95 for class (h) and 0.56-0.93 for the remaining class (s). Due to the complexity of soft-tissue lesions reflected in the heterogeneity of the pseudo-color images, more GMM components (n=17) were attributed to class (s), compared to the other three (c, e and h) (n=6).

CONCLUSION

Combination of 2D CNN VAE and GMM achieves high classification probabilities for hard tissue-containing lesions. Automatic recognition of these classes may aid therapeutic decision-making and identifying uncrossable lesions prior to endovascular intervention.

Educating Trainees to Treat Peripheral Arterial Disease: Challenges and Opportunities

Educating trainees to treat Peripheral Artery Disease (PAD) carries specific contemporary challenges. The national increase of the prevalence of PAD combined with a significant shortage of vascular surgeons creates a need for concern for future management of this complex disease. Over the past 2 decades, traditional (5 + 2) and integrated (0 + 5) paradigms have fostered trainee annual growth and comparable case distribution and volumes in endovascular and open surgical treatment options have been maintained. Close evaluation into not only the absolute numbers of surgical cases, but the level of trainee involvement in each logged case is recommended. Future implementation of the Entrustable Professional Activity (EPA) modules will hopefully assist in ensuring linear development of surgical skill and judgment. Additionally, advances in individual and systems level techniques to enhance skill acquisition in the form of "off-the job training" and simulation-based training may provide an enhancement to traditional technical training methods. Finally, the possibility and role of artificial intelligence in vascular surgery skill training must not be ignored, but carefully explored and utilized to modernize cognitive and technical skill preparation for trainees in the and delivery of care for PAD patients. Overall, the training residents for the treatment of PAD patients will be associated with new challenges that vascular surgery must embrace and surmount to advance our specialty.

Leveraging Artificial Intelligence to Optimize the Care of Peripheral Artery Disease Patients

Peripheral artery disease is a major atherosclerotic disease that is associated with poor outcomes such as limb loss, cardiovascular morbidity, and death. Artificial intelligence (AI) has seen increasing integration in medicine, and its various applications can optimize the care of peripheral artery disease (PAD) patients in diagnosis, predicting patient outcomes, and imaging interpretation. In this review, we introduce various AI applications such as natural language processing, supervised machine learning, and deep learning, and we analyze the current literature in which these algorithms have been applied to PAD.

A machine learning algorithm for peripheral artery disease prognosis using biomarker data

Peripheral artery disease (PAD) biomarkers have been studied in isolation; however, an algorithm that considers a protein panel to inform PAD prognosis may improve predictive accuracy. Biomarker-based prediction models were developed and evaluated using a model development (n = 270) and prospective validation cohort (n = 277). Plasma concentrations of 37 proteins were measured at baseline and the patients were followed for 2 years. The primary outcome was 2-year major adverse limb event (MALE; composite of vascular intervention or major amputation). Of the 37 proteins tested, 6 were differentially expressed in patients with vs. without PAD (ADAMTS13, ICAM-1, ANGPTL3, Alpha 1-microglobulin, GDF15, and endostatin). Using 10-fold cross-validation, we developed a random forest machine learning model that accurately predicts 2-year MALE in a prospective validation cohort of PAD patients using a 6-protein panel (AUROC 0.84). This algorithm can support PAD risk stratification, informing clinical decisions on further vascular evaluation and management.

A machine learning-based approach to identify peripheral artery disease using texture features from contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging

Diagnosing and assessing the risk of peripheral artery disease (PAD) has long been a focal point for medical practitioners. The impaired blood circulation in PAD patients results in altered microvascular perfusion patterns in the calf muscles which is the primary location of intermittent claudication pain. Consequently, we hypothesized that changes in perfusion and increase in connective tissue could lead to alterations in the appearance or texture patterns of the skeletal calf muscles, as visualized with non-invasive imaging techniques. We designed an automatic pipeline for textural feature extraction from contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (CE-MRI) scans and used the texture features to train machine learning models to detect the heterogeneity in the muscle pattern among PAD patients and matched controls. CE-MRIs from 36 PAD patients and 20 matched controls were used for preparing training and testing data at a 7:3 ratio with cross-validation (CV) techniques. We employed feature arrangement and selection methods to optimize the number of features. The proposed method achieved a peak accuracy of 94.11% and a mean testing accuracy of 84.85% in a 2-class classification approach (controls vs. PAD). A three-class classification approach was performed to identify a high-risk PAD sub-group which yielded an average test accuracy of 83.23% (matched controls vs. PAD without diabetes vs. PAD with diabetes). Similarly, we obtained 78.60% average accuracy among matched controls, PAD treadmill exercise completers, and PAD exercise treadmill non-completers. Machine learning and imaging-based texture features may be of interest in the study of lower extremity ischemia.

Applying Artificial Intelligence to Predict Complications After Endovascular Aneurysm Repair

Objective: Complications after Endovascular Aneurysm Repair (EVAR) can be fatal. Patient follow-up for surveillance imaging is becoming more challenging as fewer patients are seen, particularly after the first year. The aim of this study was to develop an artificial intelligence model to predict the complication probability of individual patients to better identify those needing more intensive post-operative surveillance. Methods: Pre-operative CTA 3D reconstruction images of AAA from 273 patients who underwent EVAR from 2011-2020 were collected. Of these, 48 patients had post-operative complications including endoleak, AAA rupture, graft limb occlusion, renal artery occlusion, and neck dilation. A deep convolutional neural network model (VascAI©) was developed which utilized pre-operative 3D CT images to predict risk of complications after EVAR. The model was built with TensorFlow software and run on the Google Colab Platform. An initial training subset of 40 randomly selected patients with complications and 189 without were used to train the AI model while the remaining 8 positive and 36 negative cases tested its performance and prediction accuracy. Data down-sampling was used to alleviate data imbalance and data augmentation methodology to further boost model performance. Results: Successful training was completed on the 229 cases in the training set and then applied to predict the complication probability of each individual in the held-out performance testing cases. The model provided a complication sensitivity of 100% and identified all the patients who later developed complications after EVAR. Of 36 patients without complications, 16 (44%) were falsely predicted to develop complications. The results therefore demonstrated excellent sensitivity for identifying patients who would benefit from more stringent surveillance and decrease the frequency of surveillance in 56% of patients unlike to develop complications. Conclusion: AI models can be developed to predict the risk of post-operative complications with high accuracy. Compared to existing methods, the model developed in this study did not require any expert-annotated data but only the AAA CTA images as inputs. This model can play an assistive role in identifying patients at high risk for post-EVAR complications and the need for greater compliance in surveillance.

Challenges and best practices for digital unstructured data enrichment in health research: A systematic narrative review

Digital data play an increasingly important role in advancing health research and care. However, most digital data in healthcare are in an unstructured and often not readily accessible format for research. Unstructured data are often found in a format that lacks standardization and needs significant preprocessing and feature extraction efforts. This poses challenges when combining such data with other data sources to enhance the existing knowledge base, which we refer to as digital unstructured data enrichment. Overcoming these methodological challenges requires significant resources and may limit the ability to fully leverage their potential for advancing health research and, ultimately, prevention, and patient care delivery. While prevalent challenges associated with unstructured data use in health research are widely reported across literature, a comprehensive interdisciplinary summary of such challenges and possible solutions to facilitate their use in combination with structured data sources is missing. In this study, we report findings from a systematic narrative review on the seven most prevalent challenge areas connected with the digital unstructured data enrichment in the fields of cardiology, neurology and mental health, along with possible solutions to address these challenges. Based on these findings, we developed a checklist that follows the standard data flow in health research studies. This checklist aims to provide initial systematic guidance to inform early planning and feasibility assessments for health research studies aiming combining unstructured data with existing data sources. Overall, the generality of reported unstructured data enrichment methods in the studies included in this review call for more systematic reporting of such methods to achieve greater reproducibility in future studies.

Artificial intelligence in clinical workflow processes in vascular surgery and beyond

In the past decade, artificial intelligence (AI)-based applications have exploded in health care. In cardiovascular disease, and vascular surgery specifically, AI tools such as machine learning, natural language processing, and deep neural networks have been applied to automatically detect underdiagnosed diseases, such as peripheral artery disease, abdominal aortic aneurysms, and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. In addition to disease detection and risk stratification, AI has been used to identify guideline-concordant statin therapy use and reasons for nonuse, which has important implications for population-based cardiovascular disease health. Although many studies highlight the potential applications of AI, few address true clinical workflow implementation of available AI-based tools. Specific examples, such as determination of optimal statin treatment based on individual patient risk factors and enhancement of intraoperative fluoroscopy and ultrasound imaging, demonstrate the potential promise of AI integration into clinical workflow. Many challenges to AI implementation in health care remain, including data interoperability, model bias and generalizability, prospective evaluation, privacy and security, and regulation. Multidisciplinary and multi-institutional collaboration, as well as adopting a framework for integration, will be critical for the successful implementation of AI tools into clinical practice.

Artificial intelligence-based predictive models in vascular diseases

Cardiovascular disease represents a source of major health problems worldwide, and although medical and technical advances have been achieved, they are still associated with high morbidity and mortality rates. Personalized medicine would benefit from novel tools to better predict individual prognosis and outcomes after intervention. Artificial intelligence (AI) has brought new insights to cardiovascular medicine, especially with the use of machine learning techniques that allow the identification of hidden patterns and complex associations in health data without any a priori assumptions. This review provides an overview on the use of artificial intelligence-based prediction models in vascular diseases, specifically focusing on aortic aneurysm, lower extremity arterial disease, and carotid stenosis. Potential benefits include the development of precision medicine in patients with vascular diseases. In addition, the main challenges that remain to be overcome to integrate artificial intelligence-based predictive models in clinical practice are discussed.

Computer Science meets Vascular Surgery: Keeping a pulse on artificial intelligence

Artificial intelligence (AI)-based technologies have garnered interest across a range of disciplines in the past several years, with an even more recent interest in various health care fields, including Vascular Surgery. AI offers a unique ability to analyze health data more quickly and efficiently than could be done by humans alone and can be used for clinical applications such as diagnosis, risk stratification, and follow-up, as well as patient-used applications to improve both patient and provider experiences, mitigate health care disparities, and individualize treatment. As with all novel technologies, AI is not without its risks and carries with it unique ethical considerations that will need to be addressed before its broad integration into health care systems. AI has the potential to revolutionize the way care is provided to patients, including those requiring vascular care.

Application of machine learning algorithms in electronic medical records to predict amputation-free survival after first revascularization in patients with peripheral artery disease

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to apply eight machine learning algorithms to develop the optimal model to predict amputation-free survival (AFS) after first revascularization in patients with peripheral artery disease (PAD).

METHODS

Among 2130 patients from 2011 to 2020, 1260 patients who underwent revascularization were randomly assigned to training set and validation set in an 8:2 ratio. 67 clinical parameters were analyzed by lasso regression analysis. Logistic regression, gradient boosting machine, random forest, decision tree, eXtreme gradient boosting, neural network, Cox regression, and random survival forest (RSF) were applied to develop prediction models. The optimal model was compared with GermanVasc score in testing set comprising patients from 2010.

RESULTS

The postoperative 1/3/5-year AFS were 90%, 79.4%, and 74.1%. Age (HR:1.035, 95%CI: 1.015-1.056), atrial fibrillation (HR:2.257, 95%CI: 1.193-4.271), cardiac ejection fraction (HR:0.064, 95%CI: 0.009-0.413), Rutherford grade ≥ 5 (HR:1.899, 95%CI: 1.296-2.782), creatinine (HR:1.03, 95%CI: 1.02-1.04), surgery duration (HR:1.03, 95%CI: 1.01-1.05), and fibrinogen (HR:1.292, 95%CI: 1.098-1.521) were independent risk factors. The optimal model was developed by RSF algorithm, with 1/3/5-year AUCs in training set of 0.866 (95% CI:0.819-0.912), 0.854 (95% CI:0.811-0.896), 0.844 (95% CI:0.793-0.894), in validation set of 0.741 (95% CI:0.580-0.902), 0.768 (95% CI:0.654-0.882), 0.836 (95% CI:0.719-0.953), and in testing set of 0.821 (95%CI: 0.711-0.931), 0.802 (95%CI: 0.684-0.919), 0.798 (95%CI: 0.657-0.939). The c-index of the model outperformed GermanVasc Score (0.788 vs 0.730). A dynamic nomogram was published on shinyapp (https://wyy2023.shinyapps.io/amputation/).

CONCLUSION

The optimal prediction model for AFS after first revascularization in patients with PAD was developed by RSF algorithm, which exhibited outstanding prediction performance.

Patterns of Care and Outcomes of Ambulatory Endovascular Interventions in Lower Extremity Peripheral Arterial Disease

Lower extremity endovascular intervention (LE-EVI) is gaining popularity as the primary treatment modality for patients with symptomatic peripheral artery disease refractory to noninvasive management. We examined the contemporary patterns of care, regional variation, and outcomes of ambulatory LE-EVI in the United States. The National Ambulatory Surgery Sample was analyzed to identify 266,563 records with peripheral artery disease and LE-EVI between January 1, 2016 and December 31, 2017. The mean age of the study cohort was 68.9 years and 40.5% were women. The majority of the endovascular interventions were performed at large (58.1%), urban teaching (64.1%), private not-for-profit (76.8%) centers, and the southern region accounted for most cases (43%). Periprocedural major adverse renal and cardiovascular events and other complications were 0.5% and 3.3%, respectively. Most patients (97.6%) were discharged home after the procedure. Age, female gender, uncontrolled hypertension, ischemic heart disease, heart failure, arrhythmia, chronic kidney disease, malnutrition, non-Medicare insurance, private for-profit, urban teaching facilities, and southern and midwest regions were associated with higher odds of major adverse renal and cardiovascular events. The mean charges per patient encounter were $56,500, with significant differences across various patient and facility characteristics. In conclusion, our study demonstrates the use, patterns of care, financial aspect, and overall safety of ambulatory LE-EVIs in a real-world setting.

Machine learning predicts cardiovascular events in patients with diabetes: The Silesia Diabetes-Heart Project

We aimed to develop a machine learning (ML) model for predicting cardiovascular (CV) events in patients with diabetes (DM). This was a prospective, observational study where clinical data of patients with diabetes hospitalized in the diabetology center in Poland (years 2015 - 2020) were analyzed using ML. The occurrence of new CV events following discharge was collected in the follow-up time for up to 5 years and 9 months. An end-to-end ML technique which exploits the neighborhood component analysis for elaborating discriminative predictors, followed by a hybrid sampling/boosting classification algorithm, multiple logistic regression, or unsupervised hierarchical clustering was proposed. In 1735 patients with diabetes (53% female), there were 150 (8.65%) ones with a new CV event in the follow-up. Twelve most discriminative patients' parameters included coronary artery disease, heart failure, peripheral artery disease, stroke, diabetic foot disease, chronic kidney disease, eosinophil count, serum potassium level, and being treated with clopidogrel, heparin, proton pump inhibitor, and loop diuretic. Utilizing those variables resulted in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) ranging from 0.62 (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 0.56-0.68, p<0.01) to 0.72 (95%CI 0.66-0.77, p<0.01) across five non-overlapping test folds, whereas multiple logistic regression correctly determined 111/150 (74.00%) high-risk patients, and 989/1585 (62.40%) low-risk patients, resulting in 1100/1735 (63.40%) correctly classified patients (AUC: 0.72, 95%CI 0.66-0.77). ML algorithms can identify patients with diabetes at a high risk of new CV events based on a small number of interpretable and easy-to-obtain patients' parameters.

Applications of artificial intelligence for patients with peripheral artery disease

OBJECTIVE

Applications of artificial intelligence (AI) have been reported in several cardiovascular diseases but its interest in patients with peripheral artery disease (PAD) has been so far less reported. The aim of this review was to summarize current knowledge on applications of AI in patients with PAD, to discuss current limits, and highlight perspectives in the field.

METHODS

We performed a narrative review based on studies reporting applications of AI in patients with PAD. The MEDLINE database was independently searched by two authors using a combination of keywords to identify studies published between January 1995 and December 2021. Three main fields of AI were investigated including natural language processing (NLP), computer vision and machine learning (ML).

RESULTS

NLP and ML brought new tools to improve the screening, the diagnosis and classification of the severity of PAD. ML was also used to develop predictive models to better assess the prognosis of patients and develop real-time prediction models to support clinical decision-making. Studies related to computer vision mainly aimed at creating automatic detection and characterization of arterial lesions based on Doppler ultrasound examination or computed tomography angiography. Such tools could help to improve screening programs, enhance diagnosis, facilitate presurgical planning, and improve clinical workflow.

CONCLUSIONS

AI offers various applications to support and likely improve the management of patients with PAD. Further research efforts are needed to validate such applications and investigate their accuracy and safety in large multinational cohorts before their implementation in daily clinical practice.

Using Artificial Intelligence to Develop a Multivariate Model with a Machine Learning Model to Predict Complications in Mexican Diabetic Patients without Arterial Hypertension (National Nested Case-Control Study): Metformin and Elevated Normal Blood Pressure Are Risk Factors, and Obesity Is Protective

Diabetes mellitus is a disease with no cure that can cause complications and even death. Moreover, over time, it will lead to chronic complications. Predictive models have been used to identify people with a tendency to develop diabetes mellitus. At the same time, there is limited information regarding the chronic complications of patients with diabetes. Our study is aimed at creating a machine-learning model that will be able to identify the risk factors of a diabetic patient developing chronic complications such as amputations, myocardial infarction, stroke, nephropathy, and retinopathy. The design is a national nested case-control study with 63,776 patients and 215 predictors with four years of data. Using an XGBoost model, the prediction of chronic complications has an AUC of 84%, and the model has identified the risk factors for chronic complications in patients with diabetes. According to the analysis, the most crucial risk factors based on SHAP values (Shapley additive explanations) are continued management, metformin treatment, age between 68 and 104 years, nutrition consultation, and treatment adherence. But we highlight two exciting findings. The first is a reaffirmation that high blood pressure figures across patients with diabetes without hypertension become a significant risk factor at diastolic > 70 mmHg (OR: 1.095, 95% CI: 1.078-1.113) or systolic > 120 mmHg (OR: 1.147, 95% CI: 1.124-1.171). Furthermore, people with diabetes with a BMI > 32 (overall obesity) (OR: 0.816, 95% CI: 0.8-0.833) have a statistically significant protective factor, which the paradox of obesity may explain. In conclusion, the results we have obtained show that artificial intelligence is a powerful and feasible tool to use for this type of study. However, we suggest that more studies be conducted to verify and elaborate upon our findings.

Application of machine learning in predicting the risk of postpartum depression: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Postpartum depression (PPD) presents a serious health problem among women and their families. Machine learning (ML) is a rapidly advancing field with increasing utility in predicting PPD risk. We aimed to synthesize and evaluate the quality of studies on application of ML techniques in predicting PPD risk.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic search of eight databases, identifying English and Chinese studies on ML techniques for predicting PPD risk and ML techniques with performance metrics. Quality of the studies involved was evaluated using the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool.

RESULTS

Seventeen studies involving 62 prediction models were included. Supervised learning was the main ML technique employed and the common ML models were support vector machine, random forest and logistic regression. Five studies (30 %) reported both internal and external validation. Two studies involved model translation, but none were tested clinically. All studies showed a high risk of bias, and more than half showed high application risk.

LIMITATIONS

Including Chinese articles slightly reduced the reproducibility of the review. Model performance was not quantitatively analyzed owing to inconsistent metrics and the absence of methods for correlation meta-analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Researchers have paid more attention to model development than to validation, and few have focused on improvement and innovation. Models for predicting PPD risk continue to emerge. However, few have achieved the acceptable quality standards. Therefore, ML techniques for successfully predicting PPD risk are yet to be deployed in clinical environments.

Perceptions of Canadian vascular surgeons toward artificial intelligence and machine learning

Background

Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) are rapidly advancing fields with increasing utility in health care. We conducted a survey to determine the perceptions of Canadian vascular surgeons toward AI/ML.

Methods

An online questionnaire was distributed to 162 members of the Canadian Society for Vascular Surgery. Self-reported knowledge, attitudes, and perceptions with respect to potential applications, limitations, and facilitators of AI/ML were assessed.

Results

Overall, 50 of the 162 Canadian vascular surgeons (31%) responded to the survey. Most respondents were aged 30 to 59 years (72%), male (80%), and White (67%) and practiced in academic settings (72%). One half of the participants reported that their knowledge of AI/ML was poor or very poor. Most were excited or very excited about AI/ML (66%) and were interested or very interested in learning more about the field (83.7%). The respondents believed that AI/ML would be useful or very useful for diagnosis (62%), prognosis (72%), patient selection (56%), image analysis (64%), intraoperative guidance (52%), research (88%), and education (80%). The limitations that the participants were most concerned about were errors leading to patient harm (42%), bias based on patient demographics (42%), and lack of clinician knowledge and skills in AI/ML (40%). Most were not concerned or were mildly concerned about job replacement (86%). The factors that were most important to encouraging clinicians to use AI/ML models were improvements in efficiency (88%), accurate predictions (84%), and ease of use (84%). The comments from respondents focused on the pressing need for the implementation of AI/ML in vascular surgery owing to the potential to improve care delivery.

Conclusions

Canadian vascular surgeons have positive views on AI/ML and believe this technology can be applied to multiple aspects of the specialty to improve patient care, research, and education. Current self-reported knowledge is poor, although interest was expressed in learning more about the field. The facilitators and barriers to the effective use of AI/ML identified in the present study can guide future development of these tools in vascular surgery.

Performance and usability testing of an automated tool for detection of peripheral artery disease using electronic health records

Peripheral artery disease (PAD) is a common cardiovascular disorder that is frequently underdiagnosed, which can lead to poorer outcomes due to lower rates of medical optimization. We aimed to develop an automated tool to identify undiagnosed PAD and evaluate physician acceptance of a dashboard representation of risk assessment. Data were derived from electronic health records (EHR). We developed and compared traditional risk score models to novel machine learning models. For usability testing, primary and specialty care physicians were recruited and interviewed until thematic saturation. Data from 3168 patients with PAD and 16,863 controls were utilized. Results showed a deep learning model that utilized time engineered features outperformed random forest and traditional logistic regression models (average AUCs 0.96, 0.91 and 0.81, respectively), P < 0.0001. Of interviewed physicians, 75% were receptive to an EHR-based automated PAD model. Feedback emphasized workflow optimization, including integrating risk assessments directly into the EHR, using dashboard designs that minimize clicks, and providing risk assessments for clinically complex patients. In conclusion, we demonstrate that EHR-based machine learning models can accurately detect risk of PAD and that physicians are receptive to automated risk detection for PAD. Future research aims to prospectively validate model performance and impact on patient outcomes.

Prediction of 2-Year Major Adverse Limb Event-Free Survival After Percutaneous Transluminal Angioplasty and Stenting for Lower Limb Atherosclerosis Obliterans: A Machine Learning-Based Study

Background

The current scoring systems could not predict prognosis after endovascular therapy for peripheral artery disease. Machine learning could make predictions for future events by learning a specific pattern from existing data. This study aimed to demonstrate machine learning could make an accurate prediction for 2-year major adverse limb event-free survival (MFS) after percutaneous transluminal angioplasty (PTA) and stenting for lower limb atherosclerosis obliterans (ASO).

Methods

A lower limb ASO cohort of 392 patients who received PTA and stenting was split to the training set and test set by 4:1 in chronological order. Demographic, medical, and imaging data were used to build machine learning models to predict 2-year MFS. The discrimination and calibration of artificial neural network (ANN) and random forest models were compared with the logistic regression model, using the area under the receiver operating curve (ROCAUC) with DeLong test, and the calibration curve with Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, respectively.

Results

The ANN model (ROCAUC = 0.80, 95% CI: 0.68–0.89) but not the random forest model (ROCAUC = 0.78, 95% CI: 0.66–0.87) significantly outperformed the logistic regression model (ROCAUC = 0.73, 95% CI: 0.60–0.83, P = 0.01 and P = 0.24). The ANN model the logistic regression model demonstrated good calibration performance (P = 0.73 and P = 0.28), while the random forest model showed poor calibration (P < 0.01). The calibration curve of the ANN model was visually the closest to the perfectly calibrated line.

Conclusion

Machine learning models could accurately predict 2-year MFS after PTA and stenting for lower limb ASO, in which the ANN model had better discrimination and calibration. Machine learning-derived prediction tools might be clinically useful to automatically identify candidates for PTA and stenting.

Machine learning in vascular surgery: a systematic review and critical appraisal

Machine learning (ML) is a rapidly advancing field with increasing utility in health care. We conducted a systematic review and critical appraisal of ML applications in vascular surgery. MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane CENTRAL were searched from inception to March 1, 2021. Study screening, data extraction, and quality assessment were performed by two independent reviewers, with a third author resolving discrepancies. All original studies reporting ML applications in vascular surgery were included. Publication trends, disease conditions, methodologies, and outcomes were summarized. Critical appraisal was conducted using the PROBAST risk-of-bias and TRIPOD reporting adherence tools. We included 212 studies from a pool of 2235 unique articles. ML techniques were used for diagnosis, prognosis, and image segmentation in carotid stenosis, aortic aneurysm/dissection, peripheral artery disease, diabetic foot ulcer, venous disease, and renal artery stenosis. The number of publications on ML in vascular surgery increased from 1 (1991-1996) to 118 (2016-2021). Most studies were retrospective and single center, with no randomized controlled trials. The median area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was 0.88 (range 0.61-1.00), with 79.5% [62/78] studies reporting AUROC ≥ 0.80. Out of 22 studies comparing ML techniques to existing prediction tools, clinicians, or traditional regression models, 20 performed better and 2 performed similarly. Overall, 94.8% (201/212) studies had high risk-of-bias and adherence to reporting standards was poor with a rate of 41.4%. Despite improvements over time, study quality and reporting remain inadequate. Future studies should consider standardized tools such as PROBAST and TRIPOD to improve study quality and clinical applicability.

Artificial intelligence's role in vascular surgery decision-making

Artificial intelligence (AI) is the next great advance informing medical science. Several disciplines, including vascular surgery, use AI-based decision-making tools to improve clinical performance. Although applied widely, AI functions best when confronted with voluminous, accurate data. Consistent, predictable analytic technique selection also challenges researchers. This article contextualizes AI analyses within evidence-based medicine, focusing on "big data" and health services research, as well as discussing opportunities to improve data collection and realize AI's promise.

Artificial Intelligence Evidence-Based Current Status and Potential for Lower Limb Vascular Management

Consultation prioritization is fundamental in optimal healthcare management and its performance can be helped by artificial intelligence (AI)-dedicated software and by digital medicine in general. The need for remote consultation has been demonstrated not only in the pandemic-induced lock-down but also in rurality conditions for which access to health centers is constantly limited. The term “AI” indicates the use of a computer to simulate human intellectual behavior with minimal human intervention. AI is based on a “machine learning” process or on an artificial neural network. AI provides accurate diagnostic algorithms and personalized treatments in many fields, including oncology, ophthalmology, traumatology, and dermatology. AI can help vascular specialists in diagnostics of peripheral artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, and deep vein thrombosis by analyzing contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging or ultrasound data and in diagnostics of pulmonary embolism on multi-slice computed angiograms. Automatic methods based on AI may be applied to detect the presence and determine the clinical class of chronic venous disease. Nevertheless, data on using AI in this field are still scarce. In this narrative review, the authors discuss available data on AI implementation in arterial and venous disease diagnostics and care.

Machine learning approaches improve risk stratification for secondary cardiovascular disease prevention in multiethnic patients

Objectives

Identifying high-risk patients is crucial for effective cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention. It is not known whether electronic health record (EHR)-based machine-learning (ML) models can improve CVD risk stratification compared with a secondary prevention risk score developed from randomised clinical trials (Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction Risk Score for Secondary Prevention, TRS 2°P).

Methods

We identified patients with CVD in a large health system, including atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD), split into 80% training and 20% test sets. A rich set of EHR patient features was extracted. ML models were trained to estimate 5-year CVD event risk (random forests (RF), gradient-boosted machines (GBM), extreme gradient-boosted models (XGBoost), logistic regression with an L₂ penalty and L₁ penalty (Lasso)). ML models and TRS 2°P were evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

Results

The cohort included 32 192 patients (median age 74 years, with 46% female, 63% non-Hispanic white and 12% Asian patients and 23 475 patients with ASCVD). There were 4010 events over 5 years of follow-up. ML models demonstrated good overall performance; XGBoost demonstrated AUC 0.70 (95% CI 0.68 to 0.71) in the full CVD cohort and AUC 0.71 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.73) in patients with ASCVD, with comparable performance by GBM, RF and Lasso. TRS 2°P performed poorly in all CVD (AUC 0.51, 95% CI 0.50 to 0.53) and ASCVD (AUC 0.50, 95% CI 0.48 to 0.52) patients. ML identified nontraditional predictive variables including education level and primary care visits.

Conclusions

In a multiethnic real-world population, EHR-based ML approaches significantly improved CVD risk stratification for secondary prevention.

Leveraging the potential of machine learning for assessing vascular ageing: state-of-the-art and future research

Vascular ageing biomarkers have been found to be predictive of cardiovascular risk independently of classical risk factors, yet are not widely used in clinical practice. In this review, we present two basic approaches for using machine learning (ML) to assess vascular age: parameter estimation and risk classification. We then summarize their role in developing new techniques to assess vascular ageing quickly and accurately. We discuss the methods used to validate ML-based markers, the evidence for their clinical utility, and key directions for future research. The review is complemented by case studies of the use of ML in vascular age assessment which can be replicated using freely available data and code.

Leveraging Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence to Improve Peripheral Artery Disease Detection, Treatment, and Outcomes

Peripheral artery disease is an atherosclerotic disorder which, when present, portends poor patient outcomes. Low diagnosis rates perpetuate poor management, leading to limb loss and excess rates of cardiovascular morbidity and death. Machine learning algorithms and artificially intelligent systems have shown great promise in application to many areas in health care, such as accurately detecting disease, predicting patient outcomes, and automating image interpretation. Although the application of these technologies to peripheral artery disease are in their infancy, their promises are tremendous. In this review, we provide an introduction to important concepts in the fields of machine learning and artificial intelligence, detail the current state of how these technologies have been applied to peripheral artery disease, and discuss potential areas for future care enhancement with advanced analytics.

The Role of Circulating Biomarkers in Peripheral Arterial Disease

Peripheral arterial disease (PAD) of the lower extremities is a chronic illness predominantly of atherosclerotic aetiology, associated to traditional cardiovascular (CV) risk factors. It is one of the most prevalent CV conditions worldwide in subjects >65 years, estimated to increase greatly with the aging of the population, becoming a severe socioeconomic problem in the future. The narrowing and thrombotic occlusion of the lower limb arteries impairs the walking function as the disease progresses, increasing the risk of CV events (myocardial infarction and stroke), amputation and death. Despite its poor prognosis, PAD patients are scarcely identified until the disease is advanced, highlighting the need for reliable biomarkers for PAD patient stratification, that might also contribute to define more personalized medical treatments. In this review, we will discuss the usefulness of inflammatory molecules, matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs), and cardiac damage markers, as well as novel components of the liquid biopsy, extracellular vesicles (EVs), and non-coding RNAs for lower limb PAD identification, stratification, and outcome assessment. We will also explore the potential of machine learning methods to build prediction models to refine PAD assessment. In this line, the usefulness of multimarker approaches to evaluate this complex multifactorial disease will be also discussed.

Electronic Medical Record-Based Case Phenotyping for the Charlson Conditions: Scoping Review

Background

Electronic medical records (EMRs) contain large amounts of rich clinical information. Developing EMR-based case definitions, also known as EMR phenotyping, is an active area of research that has implications for epidemiology, clinical care, and health services research.

Objective

This review aims to describe and assess the present landscape of EMR-based case phenotyping for the Charlson conditions.

Methods

A scoping review of EMR-based algorithms for defining the Charlson comorbidity index conditions was completed. This study covered articles published between January 2000 and April 2020, both inclusive. Embase (Excerpta Medica database) and MEDLINE (Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online) were searched using keywords developed in the following 3 domains: terms related to EMR, terms related to case finding, and disease-specific terms. The manuscript follows the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-analyses extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA) guidelines.

Results

A total of 274 articles representing 299 algorithms were assessed and summarized. Most studies were undertaken in the United States (181/299, 60.5%), followed by the United Kingdom (42/299, 14.0%) and Canada (15/299, 5.0%). These algorithms were mostly developed either in primary care (103/299, 34.4%) or inpatient (168/299, 56.2%) settings. Diabetes, congestive heart failure, myocardial infarction, and rheumatology had the highest number of developed algorithms. Data-driven and clinical rule–based approaches have been identified. EMR-based phenotype and algorithm development reflect the data access allowed by respective health systems, and algorithms vary in their performance.

Conclusions

Recognizing similarities and differences in health systems, data collection strategies, extraction, data release protocols, and existing clinical pathways is critical to algorithm development strategies. Several strategies to assist with phenotype-based case definitions have been proposed.

Digital systems for improving outcomes in patients with primary immune defects

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Healthcare has already been impacted by the fourth industrial revolution exemplified by tip of spear technology, such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing. Yet, there is much to be accomplished as systems remain suboptimal, and full interoperability of digital records is not realized. Given the footprint of technology in healthcare, the field of clinical immunology will certainly see improvements related to these tools.

RECENT FINDINGS

Biomedical informatics spans the gamut of technology in biomedicine. Within this distinct field, advances are being made, which allow for engineering of systems to automate disease detection, create computable phenotypes and improve record portability. Within clinical immunology, technologies are emerging along these lines and are expected to continue.

SUMMARY

This review highlights advancements in digital health including learning health systems, electronic phenotyping, artificial intelligence and use of registries. Technological advancements for improving diagnosis and care of patients with primary immunodeficiency diseases is also highlighted.

Personalized prediction of live birth prior to the first in vitro fertilization treatment: a machine learning method

Background

Infertility has become a global health issue with the number of couples seeking in vitro fertilization (IVF) worldwide continuing to rise. Some couples remain childless after several IVF cycles. Women undergoing IVF face greater risks and financial burden. A prediction model to predict the live birth chance prior to the first IVF treatment is needed in clinical practice for patients counselling and shaping expectations.

Methods

Clinical data of 7188 women who underwent their first IVF treatment at the Reproductive Medical Center of Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University during 2014–2018 were retrospectively collected. Machine-learning based models were developed on 70% of the dataset using pre-treatment variables, and prediction performances were evaluated on the remaining 30% using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and calibration plot. Nested cross-validation was used to make an unbiased estimate of the generalization performance of the machine learning algorithms.

Results

The XGBoost model achieved an area under the ROC curve of 0.73 on the validation dataset and showed the best calibration compared with other machine learning algorithms. Nested cross-validation resulted in an average accuracy score of 0.70 ± 0.003 for the XGBoost model.

Conclusions

A prediction model based on XGBoost was developed using age, AMH, BMI, duration of infertility, previous live birth, previous miscarriage, previous abortion and type of infertility as predictors. This study might be a promising step to provide personalized estimates of the cumulative live birth chance of the first complete IVF cycle before treatment.