Prediction of Outcomes for Ruptured Aneurysm Surgery

Comparison of scales for the evaluation of aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (aSAH) is a life-threatening event with major complications. Delayed cerebral infarct (DCI) occurs most frequently 7 days after aSAH and can last for a prolonged period. To determine the most predictive radiological scales in grading subarachnoid or ventricular haemorrhage or both for functional outcome at 3 months in a large aSAH population, we conducted a single-centre retrospective study.

METHODS

A 3-year single-centre retrospective cohort study of 230 patients hospitalised for aSAH was analysed. Initial computed tomography (CT) scans in patients hospitalised for aSAH were blindly assessed using eight grading systems: the Fisher grade, modified Fisher grade, Barrow Neurological Institute scale, Hijdra scale, Intraventricular Haemorrhage (IVH) score, Graeb score and LeRoux score.

RESULTS

Of 200 patients with aSAH who survived to day 7 and were included for DCI analysis, 39% of cases were complicated with DCI. The Hijdra scale was the best predictor for DCI, with a receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (ROCAUC) of 0.80 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.74-0.85). The IVH score was the most effective grading system for predicting acute hydrocephalus, with a ROCAUC of 0.85 (95% CI, 0.79-0.89). In multivariate analysis, the Hijdra scale was the best predictor of the occurrence of DCI (hazard ratio, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.10-1.25).

CONCLUSIONS

Although these results have yet to be prospectively confirmed, our findings suggest that the Hijdra scale may be a good predictor of DCI and could be useful in daily clinical practice.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT

Better assessment of subarachnoid haemorrhage patients would allow for better prognostication and management of expectations, as well as referral for appropriate services and helping to appropriate use limited critical care resources.

KEY POINTS

Aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage is a life-threatening event that causes severe disability and leads to major complications such as delayed cerebral infarction. Accurate assessment of the amount of blood in the subarachnoid spaces on computed tomography with the Hijdra scale can better predict the risk of delayed cerebral infarct. The Hijdra scale could be a good triage tool for subarachnoid haemorrhage patients.

External Validation of the Modified Southwestern Aneurysm Severity Index in the Barrow Ruptured Aneurysm Trial Surgical Cohort

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Predicting functional outcomes after surgical management of ruptured aneurysms is essential. This study sought to validate the modified Southwestern Aneurysm Severity Index (mSASI), which predicts functional outcomes 1 year after treatment.

METHODS

The surgical arm of a randomized controlled trial, the Barrow Ruptured Aneurysm Trial, was used to validate the mSASI model. mSASI scores incorporating the Hunt and Hess scale, Non-Neurological American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Classification Status, imaging findings, and other modifiers were assigned and evaluated against the Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) score at 1 year. The model's performance was assessed for discrimination and calibration. Similar evaluations were constructed using the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) as the 1-year functional outcome measurement. Long-term outcomes (3, 6, 10 years) were also evaluated.

RESULTS

Of 280 clinical trial patients treated surgically, 242 met the inclusion criteria. The mean age was 54.1 ± 12.9 years; 31% were men. Favorable GOS score (4-5) and mRS score (0-2) at 1 year were observed in 73.6% and 66.1% of patients, respectively. The mSASI model predicted unfavorable GOS score at 1 year with fair to good discrimination (area under the curve = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.68-0.82) and accurate calibration (R2 = 0.98). Similar results were obtained when mRS was used as the outcome measure (area under the curve = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.68-0.82; R2 = 0.95).

CONCLUSION

The mSASI model was externally validated in our cohort to predict functional outcomes using the GOS or mRS scores 1 year after surgery. This index may be used for prognosticating outcomes of patients undergoing surgery for ruptured aneurysms at short-term and long-term intervals.

A Comparison of Perioperative Complications and Outcomes in Patients Undergoing Cerebral Aneurysm Clipping Performed Ultra-Early (≤ 24 hours) versus Late (> 24 hours): A 7-Year Retrospective Study of 302 Patients

Objectives  The intracerebral aneurysm with subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) has a high morbidity and mortality rate. This study aimed to compare the incidences of perioperative complications in ultra-early surgery (within 24 hours) with those in late surgery (> 24 hours). Methods  Retrospective data were reviewed for 302 patients who underwent craniotomies with aneurysm clipping between January 2014 and December 2020. Perioperative data were obtained from the medical records and reviewed by the investigators. The complications were compared between ultra-early and late operations. We were interested in major complications such as delayed ischemic neurologic deficit (DIND), intraoperative aneurysm rupture (IAR), and anesthesia-related complications. The short-term (in hospital) and long-term (1 year) outcomes in patients with or without DIND and IAR were compared. The collected data was statistically analyzed. Results  Three hundred and two patients were analyzed, and 264 patients had completed follow-up. The ultra-early cases (150 patients) had a higher American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status, a lower Glasgow Coma Scale, and higher Hunt and Hess scales. The surgeons operated on more cases of the anterior cerebral artery as ultra-early operations. The incidence rates of DIND, IAR, severe hemodynamic instability, and cardiac arrest were 5.6, 8.3, 6.3, and 0.3%, respectively, which were not different between groups. However, the reintubation rate was higher in the ultra-early surgery cases (0 vs. 3.3%, p  = 0.023). The DIND and IAR patients had poorer short-term (in hospital) outcomes. Conclusions  There were no differences in major complications between ultra-early and late craniotomy with aneurysm clipping. However, the reintubation rate was strikingly higher in the ultra-early group. Patients with major complications had early, unfavorable outcomes.

Pre- and Post-Operative Online Prediction of Outcome in Patients Undergoing Endovascular Coiling after Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage: Visual and Dynamic Nomograms

BACKGROUND

Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) causes long-term functional dependence and death. Early prediction of functional outcomes in aSAH patients with appropriate intervention strategies could lower the risk of poor prognosis. Therefore, we aimed to develop pre- and post-operative dynamic visualization nomograms to predict the 1-year functional outcomes of aSAH patients undergoing coil embolization.

METHODS

Data were obtained from 400 aSAH patients undergoing endovascular coiling admitted to the People's Hospital of Hunan Province in China (2015-2019). The key indicator was the modified Rankin Score (mRS), with 3-6 representing poor functional outcomes. Multivariate logistic regression (MLR)-based visual nomograms were developed to analyze baseline characteristics and post-operative complications. The evaluation of nomogram performance included discrimination (measured by C statistic), calibration (measured by the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and calibration curves), and clinical usefulness (measured by decision curve analysis).

RESULTS

Fifty-nine aSAH patients (14.8%) had poor outcomes. Both nomograms showed good discrimination, and the post-operative nomogram demonstrated superior discrimination to the pre-operative nomogram with a C statistic of 0.895 (95% CI: 0.844-0.945) vs. 0.801 (95% CI: 0.733-0.870). Each was well calibrated with a Hosmer-Lemeshow p-value of 0.498 vs. 0.276. Moreover, decision curve analysis showed that both nomograms were clinically useful, and the post-operative nomogram generated more net benefit than the pre-operative nomogram. Web-based online calculators have been developed to greatly improve the efficiency of clinical applications.

CONCLUSIONS

Pre- and post-operative dynamic nomograms could support pre-operative treatment decisions and post-operative management in aSAH patients, respectively. Moreover, this study indicates that integrating post-operative variables into the nomogram enhanced prediction accuracy for the poor outcome of aSAH patients.

Discovering hematoma-stimulated circuits for secondary brain injury after intraventricular hemorrhage by spatial transcriptome analysis

Introduction

Central nervous system (CNS) diseases, such as neurodegenerative disorders and brain diseases caused by acute injuries, are important, yet challenging to study due to disease lesion locations and other complexities.

Methods

Utilizing the powerful method of spatial transcriptome analysis together with novel algorithms we developed for the study, we report here for the first time a 3D trajectory map of gene expression changes in the brain following acute neural injury using a mouse model of intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH). IVH is a common and representative complication after various acute brain injuries with severe mortality and mobility implications.

Results

Our data identified three main 3D global pseudospace-time trajectory bundles that represent the main neural circuits from the lateral ventricle to the hippocampus and primary cortex affected by experimental IVH stimulation. Further analysis indicated a rapid response in the primary cortex, as well as a direct and integrated effect on the hippocampus after IVH stimulation.

Discussion

These results are informative for understanding the pathophysiological changes, including the spatial and temporal patterns of gene expression changes, in IVH patients after acute brain injury, strategizing more effective clinical management regimens, and developing novel bioinformatics strategies for the study of other CNS diseases. The algorithm strategies used in this study are searchable via a web service (www.combio-lezhang.online/3dstivh/home).

Evaluating Social Determinants of Health Variables in Advanced Analytic and Artificial Intelligence Models for Cardiovascular Disease Risk and Outcomes: A Targeted Review

Introduction/Purpose

Predictive models incorporating relevant clinical and social features can provide meaningful insights into complex interrelated mechanisms of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and progression and the influence of environmental exposures on adverse outcomes. The purpose of this targeted review (2018-2019) was to examine the extent to which present-day advanced analytics, artificial intelligence, and machine learning models include relevant variables to address potential biases that inform care, treatment, resource allocation, and management of patients with CVD.

Methods

PubMed literature was searched using the prespecified inclusion and exclusion criteria to identify and critically evaluate primary studies published in English that reported on predictive models for CVD, associated risks, progression, and outcomes in the general adult population in North America. Studies were then assessed for inclusion of relevant social variables in the model construction. Two independent reviewers screened articles for eligibility. Primary and secondary independent reviewers extracted information from each full-text article for analysis. Disagreements were resolved with a third reviewer and iterative screening rounds to establish consensus. Cohen's kappa was used to determine interrater reliability.

Results

The review yielded 533 unique records where 35 met the inclusion criteria. Studies used advanced statistical and machine learning methods to predict CVD risk (10, 29%), mortality (19, 54%), survival (7, 20%), complication (10, 29%), disease progression (6, 17%), functional outcomes (4, 11%), and disposition (2, 6%). Most studies incorporated age (34, 97%), sex (34, 97%), comorbid conditions (32, 91%), and behavioral risk factor (28, 80%) variables. Race or ethnicity (23, 66%) and social variables, such as education (3, 9%) were less frequently observed.

Conclusions

Predictive models should adjust for race and social predictor variables, where relevant, to improve model accuracy and to inform more equitable interventions and decision making.

Race as a factor in adverse outcomes following unruptured aneurysm surgery

INTRODUCTION

Strong evidence demonstrates that race is associated with health outcomes. Previous neurosurgical research has focused predominantly on subjective data, such as patient satisfaction. Our objective was to assess whether racial disparities are present in primary objective outcomes for treatment of intracranial, unruptured aneurysms in the United States.

METHODS

Data from the 2012-2015 National Inpatient Sample (NIS) database was analyzed. Patients who underwent either open or endovascular treatment of unruptured intracranial aneurysms were included (n = 11663). Patients were stratified by race, and those of unknown race or whose race sample size was too underpowered for analysis were excluded (n = 1202), along with those who experienced head trauma (n = 110) or concurrent AVM (n = 71). Poor outcome was defined as in-hospital mortality, discharge to a nursing facility or hospice, placement of a tracheostomy tube, or placement of a gastrostomy tube. The associations between race and adverse outcomes were determined through multivariate logistic regression, corrected for potentially confounding variables such as age, sex, procedural type, elective procedure, obesity, diabetes, tobacco, severity of illness, and hospital type.

RESULTS

7478 White, 1460 Black, 1086 Hispanic, and 279 Asian patients were included in the final analysis. Complication rates were not significantly different between races, however Black patients experienced the highest proportion of complications (24 %). After adjusting for confounders, the odds of poor outcomes were significantly higher for Black patients (OR = 1.32 95 % CI: 1.07-1.62; p = 0.008) when compared to White patients. Black and Hispanic patients demonstrated a longer length of stay (Black, B: 0.04; 95 % CI: 0.03, 0.06; p < 0.001; Hispanic, B: 0.04; 95 % CI: 0.02, 0.05; p < 0.001) when compared to White patients.

CONCLUSION

Our nationwide analysis using the NIS suggests that Black patients treated for unruptured intracranial aneurysms experience worse outcomes and longer lengths of stay when compared to White patients. Recognizing the differences in objective outcomes and the presence of neurosurgical healthcare disparities is an important first step in providing equitable care to all patients. Future studies that carefully follow the social determinants of health and consider more confounding factors in the association between outcomes and determinants are needed.

Effect of combined fenestration of lamina terminalis and Liliequist membrane during surgical clipping on the incidence of chronic hydrocephalus in patients with anterior circulation ruptured aneurysms

PURPOSE

To explore the effects of combined fenestration of lamina terminalis and Liliequist membrane during surgical clipping on the occurrence of chronic hydrocephalus in patients with ruptured anterior circulation aneurysm.

METHODS

Clinical data of 78 patients with anterior circulation ruptured aneurysms who were treated between June 2018 and January 2021 were retrospectively analyzed. Based on the surgical treatment, patients were divided into 3 groups: clipping group (26 cases); fenestration group (lamina terminalis fenestration combined with clipping, 28 cases); and combination group (lamina terminalis fenestration and Liliequist membrane opening combined with clipping, 24 cases). The incidence of postoperative chronic hydrocephalus, the postoperative hydrocephalus shunt rate, and the Glasgow prognostic score (GOS) were evaluated.

RESULTS

The incidence of postoperative chronic hydrocephalus in the combined group (16.6 %, 4/24) was significantly lower than that in the clipping group (46.1 %, 12/26) and the fenestration group (35.7 %, 10/28; P < 0.05). The shunt rate of chronic hydrocephalus in the combined group (4.1 %, 1/24) was significantly lower than that in the clipping group (30.7 %, 8/26) and the fenestration group (17.8 %, 5/28; P < 0.05). The rate of postoperative GOS score of 5 in the combined group (75.0 %, 18/24) was significantly higher than that in the clipping group (23.0 %, 6/26) and the fenestration group (57.1 %, 16/28; P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Aneurysm clipping combined with lamina terminalis fenestration and Liliequist membrane opening can reduce the occurrence of chronic hydrocephalus and the rate of chronic hydrocephalus shunt surgery, thereby improving the prognosis of patients.

Identification of Small, Regularly Shaped Cerebral Aneurysms Prone to Rupture

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Many small, regularly shaped cerebral aneurysms rupture; however, they usually receive a low score based on current risk-assessment methods. Our goal was to identify patient and aneurysm characteristics associated with rupture of small, regularly shaped aneurysms and to develop and validate predictive models of rupture in this aneurysm subpopulation.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Cross-sectional data from 1079 aneurysms smaller than 7 mm with regular shapes (without blebs) were used to train predictive models for aneurysm rupture using machine learning methods. These models were based on the patient population, aneurysm location, and hemodynamic and geometric characteristics derived from image-based computational fluid dynamics models. An independent data set with 102 small, regularly shaped aneurysms was used for validation.

RESULTS

Adverse hemodynamic environments characterized by strong, concentrated inflow jets, high speed, complex and unstable flow patterns, and concentrated, oscillatory, and heterogeneous wall shear stress patterns were associated with rupture in small, regularly shaped aneurysms. Additionally, ruptured aneurysms were larger and more elongated than unruptured aneurysms in this subset. A total of 5 hemodynamic and 6 geometric parameters along with aneurysm location, multiplicity, and morphology, were used as predictive variables. The best machine learning rupture prediction-model achieved a good performance with an area under the curve of 0.84 on the external validation data set.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated the potential of using predictive machine learning models based on aneurysm-specific hemodynamic, geometric, and anatomic characteristics for identifying small, regularly shaped aneurysms prone to rupture.

Aging Patient Population With Ruptured Aneurysms: Trend Over 28 Years

BACKGROUND

Given increasing life expectancy in the United States and worldwide, the proportion of elderly patients affected by aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) would be expected to increase.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether an aging trend exists in the population of aSAH patients presenting to our institution over a 28-yr period.

METHODS

A prospectively maintained database of consecutive patients presenting to our institution with subarachnoid hemorrhage between January 1991 and December 2018 was utilized. The 28-yr period was categorized into 4 successive 7-yr quarter intervals. The age of patients was compared among these intervals, and yearly trends were derived using linear regression.

RESULTS

The cohort consisted of 1671 ruptured aneurysm patients with a mean age of 52.8 yr (standard deviation = 15.0 yr). Over the progressive 7-yr time intervals during the 28-yr period, there was an approximately 4-fold increase in the proportion of patients aged 80 yr or above (P < .001) and an increase in mean patient age from 51.2 to 54.6 yr (P = .002). Independent of this trend but along the same lines, there was a 29% decrease in the proportion of younger patients (<50 yr) from 49% to 35%. On linear regression, there was 1-yr increase in mean patient age per 5 calendar years (P < .001).

CONCLUSION

Analyses of aSAH patients demonstrate an increase in patient age over time with a considerable rise in the proportion of octogenarian patients and a decrease in patients younger than 50 yr. This aging phenomenon presents a challenge to the continued improvement in outcomes of aSAH patients.

Clinical Outcomes of Large (>10 mm) Unruptured Posterior Circulation Aneurysms and Their Predictors

Objective

The treatment of large aneurysms of the posterior circulation is complicated and remains challenging. We here analyzed our institutional clinical outcomes of large unruptured aneurysms of the posterior circulation.

Methods

This study included 56 patients who presented with a large (>10 mm) unruptured aneurysm of the posterior circulation between 2002 and 2018.

Results

There were 18 (32.1%) male and 38 (67.9%) female patients, with a mean age of 53.4 years. The most common location was the vertebral artery, followed by the basilar tip and posterior cerebral artery. The median follow-up duration was 29 months. Eighteen patients (32.1%) were treated by transcranial surgery and 38 (67.9%) were treated by endovascular treatment (EVT). Posttreatment complications occurred in 16 patients (28.6%), with there being no significant difference between the transcranial surgery and EVT groups. Complete obliteration was achieved in 30 patients (53.6%), with there being no statistically significant difference between the transcranial surgery and EVT groups. Recurrence occurred in 17 patients (30.4%), and the rate of recurrence was higher in the EVT group than in the transcranial surgery group (39.5% vs. 11.1%, p=0.03). Forty-four (84%) of 56 patients showed a favorable functional outcome. In saccular aneurysm, EVT was negative predictor of worsening of functional status.

Conclusion

Treatment of these aneurysms harbors an inherent high risk of morbidity. No superiority was found between transcranial surgery and EVT in terms of complications and complete obliteration, but transcranial surgery showed a higher treatment durability than EVT.