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He Y, Wang R, Zhao H, Ren Y, Agarwal M, Zheng D, Gao S, McKirdy SJ, Chu D. Predicting potential global distribution and risk regions for potato cyst nematodes (Globodera rostochiensis and Globodera pallida). Sci Rep 2022; 12:21843. [PMID: 36528656 PMCID: PMC9759053 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-26443-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/06/2022] [Accepted: 12/14/2022] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Potato cyst nematodes (PCNs), golden (yellow) cyst nematode (Globodera rostochiensis, gPCN) and pale (white) cyst nematode (G. pallida, pPCN), are important invasive pests in many countries and regions where they can cause significant yield and economic loss for agriculture. Prediction and identification of habitats suitable for PCNs are critical for developing biosecurity strategies, both pre and post border, to maximise the potential for early elimination should an incursion occur. To date, the potential global distribution of PCNs has not been thoroughly studied. Therefore, this study conducted a species distribution model to illustrate the potential global distribution of PCNs and risk regions. In this study, the Maximum Entropy Model (Maxent) associated with the Geographic Information System (GIS) was employed to reveal the potential distribution of the gPCN and pPCN. In addition to bioclimate, soil quality was also included in the model. The global cultivated lands, whether the susceptible hosts were present or not, were used to assess the maximum potential risk regions. The limitation factors for PCNs distribution were also assessed. Results showed that 66% of the global land surface was suitable for gPCN or pPCN or both, and both species can colonise more than 75% of the global cultivated lands. The coldest quarter's mean temperature and precipitation were critical limitations in unsuitable regions. In summary, the global risk maps of PCNs contribute valuable additional information that complements previous national/regional distribution predictions. The results of this distribution research will contribute practical support for decision-makers and practitioners to implement biosecurity strategies from a global perspective, that incorporate prevention or promptly enforce control practices to limit the damage caused by future incursions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yitong He
- grid.412608.90000 0000 9526 6338Shandong Engineering Research Centre for Environment-Friendly Agricultural Pest Management, College of Plant Health and Medicine, Qingdao Agricultural University, Qingdao, 266109 People’s Republic of China ,grid.1025.60000 0004 0436 6763Harry Butler Institute, Murdoch University, Perth, WA 6150 Australia
| | - Rui Wang
- grid.410727.70000 0001 0526 1937State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, 100193 People’s Republic of China
| | - Honghai Zhao
- grid.412608.90000 0000 9526 6338Shandong Engineering Research Centre for Environment-Friendly Agricultural Pest Management, College of Plant Health and Medicine, Qingdao Agricultural University, Qingdao, 266109 People’s Republic of China
| | - Yonglin Ren
- grid.1025.60000 0004 0436 6763Harry Butler Institute, Murdoch University, Perth, WA 6150 Australia
| | - Manjree Agarwal
- grid.1025.60000 0004 0436 6763Harry Butler Institute, Murdoch University, Perth, WA 6150 Australia
| | - Dan Zheng
- grid.412608.90000 0000 9526 6338College of Economics, Qingdao Agricultural University, Qingdao, 266109 People’s Republic of China
| | - Shan Gao
- Hebei Dahaituo National Nature Reserve Management Centre, Chicheng, 075500 People’s Republic of China
| | - Simon J. McKirdy
- grid.1025.60000 0004 0436 6763Harry Butler Institute, Murdoch University, Perth, WA 6150 Australia
| | - Dong Chu
- grid.412608.90000 0000 9526 6338Shandong Engineering Research Centre for Environment-Friendly Agricultural Pest Management, College of Plant Health and Medicine, Qingdao Agricultural University, Qingdao, 266109 People’s Republic of China
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