Multiple Complications in Emergency Surgery : Identifying Risk Factors for Failure-to-Rescue

Deaths After Readmissions are Mostly Attributable to Failure-to-Rescue in EGS Patients

INTRODUCTION

We have recently shown that readmission after EGS procedures carries a 4-fold higher mortality rate when compared to those not readmitted. Understanding factors associated with death after readmission is paramount to improving outcomes for EGS patients. We aimed to identify risk factors contributing to failure-to-rescue (FTR) during readmission after EGS. We hypothesized that most post-readmission deaths in EGS are attributable to FTR.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study using the NSQIP database 2013-2019 was performed. Patients who underwent 1 of 9 urgent/emergent surgical procedures representing 80% of EGS burden of disease, who were readmitted within 30 days post-procedure were identified. The procedures were classified as low- and high-risk. Patient characteristics analyzed included age, sex, BMI, ASA score comorbidities, postoperative complications, frailty, and FTR. The population was assessed for risk factors associated with mortality and FTR by uni- and multivariate logistic regression.

RESULTS

Of 312,862 EGS cases, 16,306 required readmission. Of those, 10,748 (3.4%) developed a postoperative complication. Overall mortality after readmission was 2.4%, with 90.6% of deaths attributable to FTR. Frailty, high-risk procedures, pulmonary complications, AKI, sepsis, and the need for reoperation increased the risk of FTR.

DISCUSSION

Death after a complication is common in EGS readmissions. The impact of FTR could be minimized with the implementation of measures to allow early identification and intervention or prevention of infectious, respiratory, and renal complications.

Enhanced Recovery After Surgery (ERAS®) Society Consensus Guidelines for Emergency Laparotomy Part 3: Organizational Aspects and General Considerations for Management of the Emergency Laparotomy Patient

BACKGROUND

This is Part 3 of the first consensus guidelines for optimal care of patients undergoing emergency laparotomy using an enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) approach. This paper addresses organizational aspects of care.

METHODS

Experts in management of the high-risk and emergency general surgical patient were invited to contribute by the International ERAS® Society. PubMed, Cochrane, Embase, and MEDLINE database searches were performed for ERAS elements and relevant specific topics. Studies were selected with particular attention to randomized clinical trials, systematic reviews, meta-analyses and large cohort studies, and reviewed and graded using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation system. Recommendations were made on the best level of evidence, or extrapolation from studies on elective patients when appropriate. A modified Delphi method was used to validate final recommendations.

RESULTS

Components of organizational aspects of care were considered. Consensus was reached after three rounds of a modified Delphi process.

CONCLUSIONS

These guidelines are based on best current available evidence for organizational aspects of an ERAS® approach to patients undergoing emergency laparotomy and include discussion of less common aspects of care for the surgical patient, including end-of-life issues. These guidelines are not exhaustive but pull together evidence on important components of care for this high-risk patient population. As much of the evidence is extrapolated from elective surgery or emergency general surgery (not specifically laparotomy), many of the components need further evaluation in future studies.

Associations between preoperative risks of postoperative complications: Results of an analysis of 4.8 Million ACS-NSQIP patients

BACKGROUND

Surgical Risk Preoperative Assessment System (SURPAS) estimates patient's preoperative risk of 12 postoperative complications, yet little is known about associations between these probabilities- We sought to examine relationships between predicted probabilities.

METHODS

Risk of 12 postoperative complications was calculated using SURPAS and the 2012-2018 ACS-NSQIP database. Pearson correlation coefficients (r) were computed to examine relationships between predicted outcomes. "High-risk" was predicted risk in the 10th decile.

RESULTS

4,777,267 patients were included. 71.1% were not high risk, 10.7% were high risk for 1, and 18.2% were high risk for ≥2 complications. High mortality risk was associated with high risk for pulmonary (r = 0.94), cardiac (r = 0.98), renal (r = 0.93), and stroke (0.96) complications. Patients high-risk for ≥2 complications had the most comorbidities and actual adverse outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

High preoperative risk for certain postoperative complications had strong correlations. 18.2% of patients were high-risk for ≥2 complications and could be targeted for risk reduction interventions.

Factors affecting 30-day postoperative complications after emergency surgery during the COVID-19 outbreak: A multicentre cohort study

Introduction

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has influenced (surgical) care worldwide. Measures were taken to prioritize surgical care in order to maintain capacity for COVID-19 healthcare. However, the influence of these measures on emergency surgery is limited. Therefore, the aim of this study is to describe the trends in emergency surgery and determine the factors influencing the risk of postoperative complications during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods

This multicentre retrospective cohort study investigated all emergency patients operated on from March 9th to June 30th, 2020. The primary endpoint was identifying the number of emergency surgical procedures performed. Secondary endpoints were determining the number of postoperative complications and factors determining the risk of postoperative complications, which were calculated by multivariate analysis with odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence (CI) intervals.

Results

In total, 1399 patients who underwent an emergency surgical procedure were included. An increase in the number of emergency vascular and trauma surgical procedures occurred during the study period. In contrast, the number of emergency general and oncological surgical procedures performed remained stable. An increased age (OR 1.01, 95% CI 1.00–1.02; p = 0.024), American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) (OR 1.34, 95% CI 1.09–1.64; p = 0.005), and surgical discipline were independent predictors for an increased risk of postoperative complications.

Conclusion

The performance of emergency vascular and trauma surgical procedures increased. The performance of emergency general and oncological surgical procedures remained stable. In addition, increased age, ASA, and surgical discipline were independent predictors for an increased risk of postoperative complications.

Prognostic profiling of children with serious post-operative complications: A novel probability model for failure to rescue

BACKGROUND

Failure to rescue (FTR), mortality after a major postoperative complication, is a superior surgical quality metric compared to surgical mortality or complications rates alone. Our objective was to develop and validate a novel pediatric profiling to identify high-risk subjects among the subset of children who develop serious post-operative complications.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective study of children who developed one or more serious postoperative complications following inpatient surgery across NSQIP-Pediatric hospitals (2012-2017). We evaluated the rate of FTR according to pre-operative comorbidity burden.

RESULTS

We identified 45,504 surgical cases with major post-operative complications (FTR rates: 2.4%). Surgical cases with greater than six pre-operative comorbidities (n = 12,148;28%) accounted for 80% of FTR events. The expected probability of FTR was 0.1%(95%CI:0.1%-0.2%) among low-risk cases, 3.3%(95%CI:3.0%-3.5%) among intermediate-risk cases, and 22.6%(95%CI:20.9%-24.3%) among high-risk cases. About half of surgical cases in the high-risk profile group died within 48 h of surgery. Comparatively, cases in the intermediate-risk group had a much longer time to mortality (10 days).

CONCLUSION

We propose a prognostic index to accurately identify children at risk for FTR. The use of such an index may provide surgeons with a window of opportunity to implement aggressive monitoring and therapeutic strategies to reduce mortality.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

IV.