Multigenerational Social Mobility: A Demographic Approach

Beyond Parental Wealth: Grandparental Wealth and the Transition to Adulthood

This study considers the multigenerational consequences of wealth transmission for the transition to young adulthood. Using a wider set of outcomes than has previously been considered, and by analyzing parental and grandparental wealth simultaneously, this work underscores the salience of multiple generations of wealth as a predictor for young adult well-being. Data comes from the US Panel Study of Income Dynamics on a sample of youth followed from mid-adolescence until the age of 20. Results from linear regression models indicate that parental wealth was associated with increases in the probability of college attendance and steady employment and inversely associated with the likelihood of nonmarital birth and idleness. Grandparental wealth predicted non-educational outcomes at least as well as parental wealth did and explained more variance in young adults' outcomes when parental wealth was lower. The association between parental wealth and non-educational outcomes suggest that wealth may inform young adults' broader life course by predicting outcomes other than college attendance. Grandparental wealth may serve a compensatory function for children with low parental wealth. Results suggest that persistently low wealth across multiple generations may impede the successful transition to young adulthood.

Demography as a Field: Where We Came From and Where We Are Headed

This essay provides a series of reflections on the current state of demography as seen by four early-career researchers who are actively engaged in aspects of the discipline as varied as research, teaching, mentorship, data collection efforts, policy making, and policy advising. Despite some claims that the discipline is weakening, we showcase the great potential of the field and outline promising pathways and novel directions for the future. In so doing, we critically assess recent innovations in data quality and availability, stressing the need to "revolutionize" the way that demographic methods are taught by adopting a viewpoint that more closely reflects the rapidly changing, or "fast," nature of global social phenomena such as conflict-related displacements, environmental disasters, migration streams, pandemics, and evolving population policies. We conclude by discussing the relevance of careful demographic analyses for policy making, stressing three main points: (i) the need to make demography more visible and understandable to the public eye; (ii) the importance of engaging and co-creating with local communities to "break" the academic bubble; and (iii) the urge to counteract the spread of misinformation-a phenomenon that has become even more visible in the aftermath of the COVID-19 outbreak.

The mobility effects hypothesis: Methods and applications

We discuss hypotheses researchers have put forth to explain how outcomes of socially mobile and immobile individuals might differ and/or how mobility experiences are related to outcomes of interest. Next, we examine the methodological literature on this topic, culminating in the development of the diagonal mobility model (DMM, also called the diagonal reference model in some studies), the primary tool of use since the 1980's. We then discuss some of the many applications of the DMM. Although the model was proposed to examine the effects of social mobility on outcomes of interest, the estimated relationships between mobility and outcomes that researchers have called mobility effects are more appropriately regarded as partial associations. When mobility is not associated with outcomes, as is often found in empirical work, the outcomes of movers from origin o to destination d are a weighted average of the outcomes of individuals who remained in states o and d respectively, and the weights capture the relative salience of origins and destinations in the acculturation process. In light of this attractive feature of the model, we briefly develop several generalizations of the current DMM that future researchers should also find useful. Finally, we propose new estimands of mobility effects, based on the explicit notion that a unit effect of mobility is a comparison of an individual with herself under two conditions, one in which she is mobile, the other in which she is immobile, and we discuss some of the challenges in identifying such effects.

Moving up but not getting ahead: Family socioeconomic position in pregnancy, social mobility, and child cognitive development in the first seven years of life

Objectives

Understanding when and how socioeconomic position (SEP) influences cognitive development is key to reducing population inequalities in health and achievement. The objective of this study was to determine the unique association between prenatal family SEP and child cognitive development, and to determine whether marked postnatal social mobility was associated with improvements in child cognitive performance to age 7.

Methods

Data were from children enrolled in the US National Collaborative Perinatal Project (NCPP) (n = 28,761) during 1959-1965, a dataset large enough to observe marked mobility, which remains uncommon. Multivariable linear regression was used to examine the relationship between SEP (i.e., parental income, education, occupation) during gestation and cognitive performance at 8 months (Bayley Scales of Infant Development Mental Development Index) and at 7 years (Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children).

Results

Holding demographic and perinatal factors constant, family SEP during gestation was not associated with cognitive performance at 8 months (B = -0.03, 95% CI: -0.07-0.01) but was positively associated with performance at 7 years even after accounting for SEP at 7 years (B = 1.28, 95% CI: 1.11-1.45). Children whose families experienced the most extreme upward mobility (from the lowest to highest income quartile) showed a 12 percentile increase in cognitive performance in the first 7 years of life. Those with the most extreme downward mobility (from the highest to lowest income quartile) still experienced an 8 percentile increase in cognitive performance in this interval.

Conclusions

The proportion of children in poverty today is similar to 1965 and intergenerational mobility has declined markedly. Prenatal SEP may contribute to inequalities in child cognitive performance that even extraordinary social mobility cannot erase. To optimize cognitive development across generations, current means-tested programs to support families with young children should be supplemented by universal approaches to ensure access to opportunity before young people become parents.

In a Stationary Population, the Average Lifespan of the Living Is a Length-Biased Life Expectancy

What is the average lifespan in a stationary population viewed at a single moment in time? Even though periods and cohorts are identical in a stationary population, we show that the answer to this question is not life expectancy but a length-biased version of life expectancy. That is, the distribution of lifespans of the people alive at a single moment is a self-weighted distribution of cohort lifespans, such that longer lifespans have proportionally greater representation. One implication is that if death rates are unchanging, the average lifespan of the current population always exceeds period life expectancy. This result connects stationary population lifespan measures to a well-developed body of statistical results; provides new intuition for established demographic results; generates new insights into the relationship between periods, cohorts, and prevalent cohorts; and offers a framework for thinking about mortality selection more broadly than the concept of demographic frailty.