The role of concentration-effect relationships in the assessment of QTc interval prolongation

Population pharmacokinetic and pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PKPD) modelling has been widely used in clinical research. Yet, its application in the evaluation of cardiovascular safety remains limited, particularly in the evaluation of pro-arrhythmic effects. Here we discuss the advantages of disadvantages of population PKPD modelling and simulation, a paradigm built around the knowledge of the concentration-effect relationship as the basis for decision making in drug development and its utility as a guide to drug safety. A wide-ranging review of the literature was performed on the experimental protocols currently used to characterize the potential for QT interval prolongation, both pre-clinically and clinically. Focus was given to the role of modelling and simulation for design optimization and subsequent analysis and interpretation of the data, discriminating drug from system specific properties. Cardiovascular safety remains one of the major sources of attrition in drug development with stringent regulatory requirements. However, despite the myriad of tests, data are not integrated systematically to ensure accurate translation of the observed drug effects in clinically relevant conditions. The thorough QT study addresses a critical regulatory question but does not necessarily reflect knowledge of the underlying pharmacology and has limitations in its ability to address fundamental clinical questions. It is also prone to issues of multiplicity. Population approaches offer a paradigm for the evaluation of drug safety built around the knowledge of the concentration-effect relationship. It enables quantitative assessment of the probability of QTc interval prolongation in patients, providing better guidance to regulatory labelling and understanding of benefit/risk in specific populations.

Assessing the probability of drug-induced QTc-interval prolongation during clinical drug development

Early in the course of clinical development of new non-antiarrhythmic drugs, it is important to assess the propensity of these drugs to prolong the QT/QTc-interval. The current regulatory guidelines suggest using the largest time-matched mean difference between drug and placebo (baseline-adjusted) groups over the sampling interval, thereby neglecting any potential exposure-effect relationship and nonlinearity in the underlying physiological fluctuation in QT values. Thus far, most of the attempted models for characterizing drug-induced QTc-interval prolongation have disregarded the possibility of model parameterization in terms of drug-specific and system-specific properties. Using a database consisting of three compounds with known dromotropic activity, we built a bayesian hierarchical pharmacodynamic (PD) model to describe QT interval, encompassing an individual correction factor for heart rate, an oscillatory component describing the circadian variation, and a truncated maximum-effect model to account for drug effect. The explicit description of the exposure-effect relationship, incorporating various sources of variability, offers advantages over the standard regulatory approach.

Magnitude of QT prolongation associated with a higher risk of Torsades de Pointes

PURPOSE

Drug induced Torsades de Pointes (TdP) is a major concern for new drugs seeking regulatory approval. Prolongation of QT intervals greater than 60 millisecond or to longer than 500 millisecond in an individual patient has been considered to be associated with a higher risk. The purpose of this study is to identify values inferred from a population that predict a stronger potential for TdP.

METHODS

Prolongation data of 30 non-antiarrhythmic QT prolonging drugs were analysed. Depending on how strong the drugs were associated with TdP, they were categorized as strong or borderline torsadogens. The differences in mean QTc increases between the two groups were compared and cut-off values that distinguished strong from borderline drugs were searched for.

RESULTS

The average QTc increase of 19.3 millisecond of strong torsadogens was significantly greater than the 8.0 millisecond of borderline torsadogens. Prolongation greater than 12 millisecond in the context of monotherapy or 25 millisecond in the presence of metabolic inhibition and an upper bound of 95% confidence interval (CI) for the mean QTc increase greater than 14 millisecond in monotherapy or 30.1 millisecond in combination therapy with metabolic inhibitors favoured a stronger association with TdP.

CONCLUSIONS

Drugs strongly associated with TdP have greater QTc increases than those with less concern. Several cut-off values have been noted to distinguish between them. These values may be helpful for evaluation of TdP risk for future QT prolonging drugs.