Ignoring a Multilevel Structure in Mixture Item Response Models: Impact on Parameter Recovery and Model Selection

An Evaluation of Fit Indices Used in Model Selection of Dichotomous Mixture IRT Models

A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to compare fit indices used for detecting the correct latent class in three dichotomous mixture item response theory (IRT) models. Ten indices were considered: Akaike's information criterion (AIC), the corrected AIC (AICc), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), consistent AIC (CAIC), Draper's information criterion (DIC), sample size adjusted BIC (SABIC), relative entropy, the integrated classification likelihood criterion (ICL-BIC), the adjusted Lo-Mendell-Rubin (LMR), and Vuong-Lo-Mendell-Rubin (VLMR). The accuracy of the fit indices was assessed for correct detection of the number of latent classes for different simulation conditions including sample size (2,500 and 5,000), test length (15, 30, and 45), mixture proportions (equal and unequal), number of latent classes (2, 3, and 4), and latent class separation (no-separation and small separation). Simulation study results indicated that as the number of examinees or number of items increased, correct identification rates also increased for most of the indices. Correct identification rates by the different fit indices, however, decreased as the number of estimated latent classes or parameters (i.e., model complexity) increased. Results were good for BIC, CAIC, DIC, SABIC, ICL-BIC, LMR, and VLMR, and the relative entropy index tended to select correct models most of the time. Consistent with previous studies, AIC and AICc showed poor performance. Most of these indices had limited utility for three-class and four-class mixture 3PL model conditions.

The Impact of Sample Size and Various Other Factors on Estimation of Dichotomous Mixture IRT Models

The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of different data conditions on item parameter recovery and classification accuracy of three dichotomous mixture item response theory (IRT) models: the Mix1PL, Mix2PL, and Mix3PL. Manipulated factors in the simulation included the sample size (11 different sample sizes from 100 to 5000), test length (10, 30, and 50), number of classes (2 and 3), the degree of latent class separation (normal/no separation, small, medium, and large), and class sizes (equal vs. nonequal). Effects were assessed using root mean square error (RMSE) and classification accuracy percentage computed between true parameters and estimated parameters. The results of this simulation study showed that more precise estimates of item parameters were obtained with larger sample sizes and longer test lengths. Recovery of item parameters decreased as the number of classes increased with the decrease in sample size. Recovery of classification accuracy for the conditions with two-class solutions was also better than that of three-class solutions. Results of both item parameter estimates and classification accuracy differed by model type. More complex models and models with larger class separations produced less accurate results. The effect of the mixture proportions also differentially affected RMSE and classification accuracy results. Groups of equal size produced more precise item parameter estimates, but the reverse was the case for classification accuracy results. Results suggested that dichotomous mixture IRT models required more than 2,000 examinees to be able to obtain stable results as even shorter tests required such large sample sizes for more precise estimates. This number increased as the number of latent classes, the degree of separation, and model complexity increased.

The Impact of Test and Sample Characteristics on Model Selection and Classification Accuracy in the Multilevel Mixture IRT Model

The standard item response theory (IRT) model assumption of a single homogenous population may be violated in real data. Mixture extensions of IRT models have been proposed to account for latent heterogeneous populations, but these models are not designed to handle multilevel data structures. Ignoring the multilevel structure is problematic as it results in lower-level units aggregated with higher-level units and yields less accurate results, because of dependencies in the data. Multilevel data structures cause such dependencies between levels but can be modeled in a straightforward way in multilevel mixture IRT models. An important step in the use of multilevel mixture IRT models is the fit of the model to the data. This fit is often determined based on relative fit indices. Previous research on mixture IRT models has shown that performances of these indices and classification accuracy of these models can be affected by several factors including percentage of class-variant items, number of items, magnitude and size of clusters, and mixing proportions of latent classes. As yet, no studies appear to have been reported examining these issues for multilevel extensions of mixture IRT models. The current study aims to investigate the effects of several features of the data on the accuracy of model selection and parameter recovery. Results are reported on a simulation study designed to examine the following features of the data: percentages of class-variant items (30, 60, and 90%), numbers of latent classes in the data (with from 1 to 3 latent classes at level 1 and 1 and 2 latent classes at level 2), numbers of items (10, 30, and 50), numbers of clusters (50 and 100), cluster size (10 and 50), and mixing proportions [equal (0.5 and 0.5) vs. non-equal (0.25 and 0.75)]. Simulation results indicated that multilevel mixture IRT models resulted in less accurate estimates when the number of clusters and the cluster size were small. In addition, mean Root mean square error (RMSE) values increased as the percentage of class-variant items increased and parameters were recovered more accurately under the 30% class-variant item conditions. Mixing proportion type (i.e., equal vs. unequal latent class sizes) and numbers of items (10, 30, and 50), however, did not show any clear pattern. Sample size dependent fit indices BIC, CAIC, and SABIC performed poorly for the smaller level-1 sample size. For the remaining conditions, the SABIC index performed better than other fit indices.

Analysis of Process Data of PISA 2012 Computer-Based Problem Solving: Application of the Modified Multilevel Mixture IRT Model

Computer-based assessments provide new insights into cognitive processes related to task completion that cannot be easily observed using paper-based instruments. In particular, such new insights may be revealed by time-tamped actions, which are recorded as computer log-files in the assessments. These actions, nested in individual level, are logically interconnected. This interdependency can be modeled straightforwardly in a multi-level framework. This study draws on process data recorded in one of complex problem-solving tasks (Traffic CP007Q02) in Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) 2012 and proposes a modified Multilevel Mixture IRT model (MMixIRT) to explore the problem-solving strategies. It was found that the model can not only explore whether the latent classes differ in their response strategies at the process level, but provide ability estimates at both the process level and the student level. The two level abilities are different across latent classes, and they are related to operational variables such as the number of resets or clicks. The proposed method may allow for better exploration of students' specific strategies for solving a problem, and the strengths and weaknesses of the strategies. Such findings may be further used to design targeted instructional interventions.