Screening for preclinical Alzheimer's disease: Deriving optimal policies using a partially observable Markov model

Alzheimer's Disease (AD) is believed to be the most common type of dementia. Even though screening for AD has been discussed widely, there is no screening program implemented as part of a policy in any country. Current medical research motivates focusing on the preclinical stages of the disease in a modeling initiative. We develop a partially observable Markov decision process model to determine optimal screening programs. The model contains disease free and preclinical AD partially observable states and the screening decision is taken while an individual is in one of those states. An observable diagnosed preclinical AD state is integrated along with observable mild cognitive impairment, AD and death states. Transition probabilities among states are estimated using data from Knight Alzheimer's Disease Research Center (KADRC) and relevant literature. With an objective of maximizing expected total quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), the output of the model is an optimal screening program that specifies at what points in time an individual over 50 years of age with a given risk of AD will be directed to undergo screening. The screening test used to diagnose preclinical AD has a positive disutility, is imperfect and its sensitivity and specificity are estimated using the KADRC data set. We study the impact of a potential intervention with a parameterized effectiveness and disutility on model outcomes for three different risk profiles (low, medium and high). When intervention effectiveness and disutility are at their best, the optimal screening policy is to screen every year between ages 50 and 95, with an overall QALY gain of 0.94, 1.9 and 2.9 for low, medium and high risk profiles, respectively. As intervention effectiveness diminishes and/or its disutility increases, the optimal policy changes to sporadic screening and then to never screening. Under several scenarios, some screening within the time horizon is optimal from a QALY perspective. Moreover, an in-depth analysis of costs reveals that implementing these policies are either cost-saving or cost-effective.

A ppm Ethanol Sensor Based on Fabry-Perot Interferometric Surface Stress Transducer at Room Temperature

Disease screening by exhaled breath diagnosis is less burdensome for patients, and various devices have been developed as promising diagnostic methods. We developed a microelectromechanical system (MEMS) optical interferometric surface stress sensor to detect volatile ethanol gas at room temperature (26~27 °C) with high sensitivity. A sub-micron air gap in the optical interferometric sensor reduces interference orders, leading to increased spectral response associated with nanomechanical deflection caused by ethanol adsorption. The sub-micron cavity was embedded in a substrate using a transfer technique of parylene-C nanosheet. The sensor with a 0.4 µm gap shows a linear stable reaction, with small standard deviations, even at low ethanol gas concentrations of 5–110 ppm and a reversible reaction to the gas concentration change. Furthermore, the possibility of detecting sub-ppm ethanol concentration by optimizing the diameter and thickness of the deformable membrane is suggested. Compared with conventional MEMS surface stress gas sensors, the proposed optical interferometric sensor demonstrated high-sensitivity gas detection with exceeding the detection limit by two orders of magnitude while reducing the sensing area.

18F-Choline PET/mpMRI for Detection of Clinically Significant Prostate Cancer: Part 2. Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of ¹⁸F-choline PET/multiparametric MRI (mpMRI) versus mpMRI alone for the detection of primary prostate cancer with a Gleason score of greater than or equal to 3 + 4 in men with elevated prostate-specific antigen levels. Methods: A Markov model of prostate cancer onset and progression was used to estimate the health and economic consequences of ¹⁸F-choline PET/mpMRI for the detection of primary prostate cancer with a Gleason score of greater than or equal to 3 + 4 in men with elevated prostate-specific antigen levels. Multiple simultaneous hybrid ¹⁸F-choline PET/mpMRI strategies were evaluated using Likert or Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System version 2 (PI-RADSv2) scoring; the first was biopsy for Likert 5 mpMRI lesions or Likert 3-4 lesions with ¹⁸F-choline target-to-background ratios of greater than or equal to 1.58, and the second was biopsy for PI-RADSv2 5 mpMRI lesions or PI-RADSv2 3-4 mpMRI lesions with ¹⁸F-choline target-to-background ratios of greater than or equal to 1.58. These strategies were compared with universal standard biopsy, mpMRI alone with biopsy only for PI-RADSv2 3-5 lesions, and mpMRI alone with biopsy only for Likert 4-5 lesions. For each mpMRI strategy, either no biopsy or standard biopsy could be performed after negative mpMRI results were obtained. Deaths averted, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), cost, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were estimated for each strategy. Results: When the results of ¹⁸F-choline PET/mpMRI were negative, performing a standard biopsy was more expensive and had lower QALYs than performing no biopsy. The best screening strategy among those considered in this study performed hybrid ¹⁸F-choline PET/mpMRI with Likert scoring on men with elevated PSA, performed combined biopsy (targeted biopsy and standard 12-core biopsy) for men with positive imaging results, and no biopsy for men with negative imaging results ($22,706/QALY gained relative to mpMRI alone); this strategy reduced the number of biopsies by 35% in comparison to mpMRI alone. When the same policies were compared using PI-RADSv2 instead of Likert scoring, hybrid ¹⁸F-choline PET/mpMRI cost $46,867/QALY gained relative to mpMRI alone. In a threshold analysis, the best strategy among those considered remained cost-effective when the sensitivity and specificity of PET/mpMRI and combined biopsy (targeted biopsy and standard 12-core biopsy) were simultaneously reduced by 20 percentage points. Conclusion: ¹⁸F-choline PET/mpMRI for the detection of primary prostate cancer with a Gleason score of greater than or equal to 3 + 4 is cost-effective and can reduce the number of unneeded biopsies in comparison to mpMRI alone.