The role of economic evaluations in advancing HIV multipurpose prevention technologies in early-stage development

Product development is a high-risk undertaking, especially so when investments are prioritized for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) where markets may be smaller, fragile, and resource-constrained. New HIV prevention technologies, such as the dapivirine vaginal ring (DVR) and long-acting injectable cabotegravir (CAB-LA), are being introduced to these markets with one indication, meeting different needs of groups such as adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) and female sex workers (FSWs) in settings with high HIV burden. However, limited supply and demand have made their uptake a challenge. Economic evaluations conducted before Phase III trials can help optimize the potential public health value proposition of products in early-stage research and development (R&D), targeting investments in the development pathway that result in products likely to be available and taken up. Public investors in the HIV prevention pipeline, in particular those focused on innovative presentations such as multipurpose prevention technologies (MPTs), can leverage early economic evaluations to understand the intrinsic uncertainty in market characterization. In this perspective piece, we reflect on the role of economic evaluations in early product development and on methodological considerations that are central to these analyses. We also discuss methods, in quantitative and qualitative research that can be deployed in early economic evaluations to address uncertainty, with examples applied to the development of future technologies for HIV prevention and MPTs.

Expert guidance on target product profile development for AMR diagnostic tests

Diagnostics are widely considered crucial in the fight against antimicrobial resistance (AMR), which is expected to kill 10 million people annually by 2030. Nevertheless, there remains a substantial gap between the need for AMR diagnostics versus their development and implementation. To help address this problem, target product profiles (TPP) have been developed to focus developers' attention on the key aspects of AMR diagnostic tests. However, during discussion between a multisectoral working group of 51 international experts from industry, academia and healthcare, it was noted that specific AMR-related TPPs could be extended by incorporating the interdependencies between the key characteristics associated with the development of such TPPs. Subsequently, the working group identified 46 characteristics associated with six main categories (ie, Intended Use, Diagnostic Question, Test Description, Assay Protocol, Performance and Commercial). The interdependencies of these characteristics were then identified and mapped against each other to generate new insights for use by stakeholders. Specifically, it may not be possible for diagnostics developers to achieve all of the recommendations in every category of a TPP and this publication indicates how prioritising specific TPP characteristics during diagnostics development may influence (or not) a range of other TPP characteristics associated with the diagnostic. The use of such guidance, in conjunction with specific TPPs, could lead to more efficient AMR diagnostics development.

Care pathway analysis and evidence gaps in adult-onset Still's disease: interviews with experts from the UK, France, Italy, and Germany

Introduction

Adult-onset Still's disease (AOSD) is a rare systemic inflammatory disease of unknown etiology. Published AOSD data are limited, and clinical guidelines were lacking until recently. Managing AOSD remains largely empirical with uncertainties and high variability about the optimal care pathway. Therefore, we used a qualitative approach to collect clinical judgments from the UK, Italy, France and Germany to inform the development of an agreed care pathway. Our work aimed to decrease the uncertainty associated with clinical practice, inform future research in AOSD, and help identify standardized definitions and outcomes in this population.

Methods

Semi-structured interviews and thematic analysis were conducted. Eleven clinicians were interviewed between May and July 2022: four were based in Italy, three in the UK, two in France, and two in Germany.

Results

In this work, we identified the structure of the typical care pathway for AOSD patients, which can be used to inform future economic models in AOSD. The general structure of the pathway was similar across countries. Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs are prescribed during the diagnostic workup while an additive approach is commonly used in confirmed cases: corticosteroids, conventional synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs, then biologic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (bDMARDs) (dose increased before switching). For severe presentations, more aggressive approaches with higher doses and early use of bDMARDs are used. The main elements of variation among countries and clinicians were the criteria used for diagnosis; order of bDMARDs and preferential treatments for articular and systemic patients; and tests for patient monitoring. There is also a lack of standardized outcome measures making comparisons and evidence synthesis challenging.

Conclusion

We identified important evidence gaps for clinical practice, e.g., reliable tests or scores predictive of disease progression and treatment outcome, and recommendations for research, e.g., reporting of compliance rates and use of the Yamaguchi criteria for clinical study inclusion. Consensus is needed around the use of the Systemic score in clinical practice and the clinical utility of this score. A standardized definition of remission is also required in AOSD, and further research should look to identify and validate the specific laboratory markers to be considered when assessing remission.

Evaluating high-cost technologies - no need to throw the baby out with the bathwater

INTRODUCTION

Evidence generation for the health technology assessment (HTA) of a new technology is a long and expensive process with no guarantees that the health technology will be adopted and implemented into a health-care system. This would suggest that there is a greater risk of failure for a company developing a high-cost technology and therefore incentives (such as increasing the funding available for research or additional market exclusivity) may be needed to encourage development of such technologies as has been seen with many high-cost orphan drugs.

AREAS COVERED

This paper discusses some of the key issues relating to the evaluation of high-cost technologies through the use of existing HTA processes and what the challenges will be going forward.

EXPERT OPINION

We propose that while the current HTA process is robust, its evolution into accommodating the incorporation of real-world data and evidence alongside a life-cycle HTA approach should better enable developers to produce the evidence required on effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. This should lead to reduced decision uncertainty for HTA agencies to make adoption decisions in a more timely and efficient manner. Furthermore, budget impact analysis remains important in understanding the actual financial impact on health-care systems and budgets outside of the cost-effectiveness framework used to aid decision-making.

Using early health economic modeling to inform medical innovation development: a soft robotic sock in poststroke patients in Singapore

OBJECTIVES

Based on a real-world collaboration with innovators in applying early health economic modeling, we aimed to offer practical steps that health technology assessment (HTA) researchers and innovators can follow and promote the usage of early HTA among research and development (R&D) communities.

METHODS

The HTA researcher was approached by the innovator to carry out an early HTA ahead of the first clinical trial of the technology, a soft robotic sock for poststroke patients. Early health economic modeling was selected to understand the potential value of the technology and to help uncover the information gap. Threshold analysis was used to identify the target product profiles. Value-of-information analysis was conducted to understand the uncertainties and the need for further research.

RESULTS

Based on the expected price and clinical effectiveness by the innovator, the new technology was found to be cost-saving compared to the current practice. Risk reduction in deep vein thrombosis and ankle contracture, the incidence rate of ankle contracture, the compliance rate of the new technology, and utility scores were found to have high impacts on the value-for-money of the new technology. The value of information was low if the new technology can achieve the expected clinical effectiveness. A list of parameters was recommended for data collection in the impending clinical trial.

CONCLUSIONS

This work, based on a real-world collaboration, has illustrated that early health economic modeling can inform medical innovation development. We provided practical steps in order to achieve more efficient R&D investment in medical innovation moving forward.

Economics and Precision Medicine

Introducing precision medicine strategies into routine practice will require robust economic evidence. Decision-makers need to understand the value of a precision medicine strategy compared with alternative ways to treat patients. This chapter describes health economic analysis techniques that are needed to generate this evidence. The value of any precision medicine strategy can be demonstrated early to inform evidence generation and improve the likelihood of translation into routine practice. Advances in health economic analysis techniques are also explained and their relevance to precision medicine is highlighted. Ensuring that constraints on delivery are resolved to increase uptake and implementation will improve the value of a new precision medicine strategy. Empirical methods to quantify stakeholders' preferences can be effective to inform the design of a precision medicine intervention or service delivery model. A range of techniques to generate relevant economic evidence are now available to support the development and translation of precision medicine into routine practice. This economic evidence is essential to inform resource allocation decisions and will enable patients to benefit from cost-effective precision medicine strategies in the future.

LiverMultiScan as an alternative to liver biopsy to monitor autoimmune hepatitis in the National Health Service in England: an economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) is a rare chronic progressive liver disease, managed with corticosteroids and immunosuppressants and monitored using a combination of liver biochemistry and histology. Liver biopsy (gold standard) is invasive, costly and has risk of complications. Non-invasive imaging using multiparametric magnetic resonance (mpMR) can detect the presence and extent of hepatic fibroinflammation in a risk-free manner.

OBJECTIVE

To conduct early economic modelling to assess the affordability of using mpMR as an alternative to liver biopsy.

METHODS

Medical test costs associated with following 100 patients over a 5-year time horizon were assessed from a National Health Service payor perspective using tariff costs and average biopsy-related adverse events costs. Sensitivity analyses modelling the cost consequences of increasing the frequency of mpMR monitoring within the fixed cost of liver biopsy were performed.

RESULTS

Per 100 moderate/severe AIH patients receiving an annual mpMR scan (in place of biopsy), early economic modelling showed minimum cost savings of £232 333. Per 100 mild/moderate AIH patients receiving three mpMR scans over 5 years estimated minimum cost savings were £139 400. One-way sensitivity analyses showed increasing the frequency of mpMR scans from 5 to 10 over 5 years in moderate/severe AIH patients results in a cost saving of £121 926.20. In patients with mild/moderate AIH, an increase from 3 to 6 mpMR scans over 5 years could save £73 155.72. In a minimalistic approach, the use of 5 mpMR scans was still cost saving (£5770.48) if they were to replace two biopsies over the 5-year period for all patients with moderate/severe or mild/moderate AIH.

CONCLUSIONS

Integration of mpMR scans in AIH patient pathways leads to significant cost savings when liver biopsy frequency is either reduced or eliminated, in addition to improved patient experience and clinician acceptability as well as providing detailed phenotyping to improve patient outcomes.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT03979053.

Methods for Early Assessment of the Societal Value of Health Technologies: A Scoping Review and Proposal for Classification

OBJECTIVES

Early assessments of health technologies help to better align and integrate their development and assessment. Such assessments can take many forms and serve different purposes, hampering users in their selection of the most appropriate method for a specific goal. The aim of this scoping review was to structure the large set of methods according to their specific goal.

METHODS

A scoping review was conducted using PubMed and reference lists of retrieved articles, to identify review studies with a methodological focus. From the included reviews, all individual methods were listed. Based on additional literature and examples, we extracted the specific goal of each method. All goals were clustered to derive a set of subclasses and methods were grouped into these subclasses.

RESULTS

Of the 404 screened, 5 reviews were included, and 1 was added when searching reference lists. The reviews described 56 methods, of which 43 (77%) were included and classified as methods to (1) explore the nature and magnitude of the problem, (2) estimate the nature and magnitude of the expected (societal) value, (3) identify conditions for the potential value to materialize, and (4) help develop and design the type of research that is needed.

CONCLUSIONS

The wide range of methods for exploring the societal value of health technologies at an early stage of development can be subdivided into a limited number of classes, distinguishing methods according to their specific objective. This facilitates selection of appropriate methods, depending on the specific needs and aims.

A toolkit of methods of development-focused health technology assessment

Health technology assessment conducted to inform decisions during technology development (development-focused or DF-HTA) has a number of distinct features compared with HTA conducted to inform reimbursement and usage decisions. In particular, there are a broad range of decisions to be informed related to the development of a technology; multiple markets and decision makers to be considered; a limited (and developing) evidence base; and constrained resources for analysis. These features impact upon methods adopted by analysts. In this paper, we (i) set out methods of DF-HTA against a timeline of technology development; (ii) provide examples of the methods’ use; and (iii) explain how they have been adapted as a result of the features of DF-HTA. We present a toolkit of methods for analysts working with developers of medical technologies. Three categories of methods are described: literature review, stakeholder consultation, and decision analytic modeling. Literature review and stakeholder consultation are often used to fill evidence gaps. Decision analytic modeling is used to synthesize available evidence alongside plausible assumptions to inform developers about price or performance requirements. Methods increase in formality and complexity as the development and evidence base progresses and more resources are available for assessment. We hope this toolkit will be used in conjunction with the framework of features of DF-HTA presented in our earlier article in order to improve the clarity and appropriateness of methods of HTA used in DF-HTA. We also seek to contribute to a continuing dialogue about the nature of, and the best approach to, DF-HTA.

Integrating Early Economic Evaluation into Target Product Profile development for medical tests: advantages and potential applications

Target Product Profiles (TPPs) outline the characteristics that new health technologies require to address an unmet clinical need. To date, published TPPs for medical tests have focused on infectious diseases, mostly in the context of low- and middle-income countries. Recently, there have been calls for a broader use of TPPs as a mechanism to ensure that diagnostic innovation is aligned with clinical needs, yet the methodology underpinning TPP development remains suboptimal. Here, we propose that early economic evaluation (EEE) should be integrated within the TPP methodology to create a more rigorous framework for the development of "fit-for-purpose" tests. We discuss the potential benefits that EEE could bring to the core activities underpinning TPP development-scoping, drafting, consensus building, and updating-and argue that using EEE to help inform TPPs provides a more objective, evidence-based, and transparent approach to defining test specifications.

The Use of Decision Analytic Modeling in the Evaluation of Surgical Innovations: A Scoping Review

OBJECTIVES

The main objective of this review was to map how decision analytic models are used in surgical innovation (in which research phase, with what aim) and to understand how challenges related to the assessment of surgical interventions are incorporated.

METHODS

We systematically searched PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library for studies published in 2018. We included original articles using a decision analytic model to compare surgical strategies. We included modeling studies of surgical innovations. General, innovation, and modeling characteristics were extracted, as were outcomes, recommendations, and handling of challenges related to the assessment of surgical interventions (learning curve, incremental innovation, dynamic pricing, quality variation, organizational impact).

RESULTS

We included 46 studies. The number of studies increased with each research phase, from 4% (n = 2) in the preclinical phase to 40% (n = 20) in phase 3 studies. Eighty-one studies were excluded because they investigated established surgical procedures, indicating that modeling is predominantly applied after the innovation process. Regardless of the research stage, the aim to determine cost-effectiveness was most frequently identified (n = 40, 87%), whereas exploratory aims (eg, exploring when a strategy becomes cost-effective) were less common (n = 9, 20%). Most challenges related to the assessment of surgical interventions were rarely incorporated in models (eg, learning curve [n = 1, 2%], organizational impact [n = 2, 4%], and incremental innovation [n = 1, 2%]), except for dynamic pricing (n = 10, 22%) and quality variation (n = 6, 13%).

CONCLUSIONS

In surgical innovation, modeling is predominantly used in later research stages to assess cost-effectiveness. The exploratory use of modeling seems still largely overlooked in surgery; therefore, the opportunity to inform research and development may not be optimally used.

Early economic evaluation of an intervention to improve uptake of the NHS England Diabetes Prevention Programme

BACKGROUND

Despite reported increases in referral numbers, a large proportion of those with prediabetes still decline participation in the NHS England Diabetes Prevention Programme (NDPP). The aim of this study was to explore whether investment in interventions to improve uptake of the programme has the potential to be cost-effective.

METHODS

An early cost-utility analysis was conducted using a Markov model parameterized based on secondary data sources. We explored different uptake scenarios and the impact that this had on the maximum allowable intervention price based on cost-effectiveness at the UK NICE willingness to pay threshold of £20,000 (US$ 25,913). Value of information analyses were conducted to explore the potential value of further research to resolve uncertainty at each uptake level.

RESULTS

As uptake levels increase, the maximum allowable intervention price and overall expected value of removing decision uncertainty increases. For 5 percentage and 50 percentage points increase in uptake levels, the maximum allowable intervention price is £41.86 (US$ 54.23) and £418.59 (US$ 542.34) per person, and the overall expected value of removing decision uncertainty are £361,818,839 (US$ 468,786,625) and £1,468,712,316 (US$ 1,902,921,063) respectively.

CONCLUSION

There is headroom for investment in interventions that improve uptake to the NDPP, thereby allowing the programme itself to be delivered in a manner that remains cost-effective.

On the integration of early health technology assessment in the innovation process: reflections from five stakeholders

Early health technology assessment (HTA), which includes all methods used to inform industry and other stakeholders about the potential value of new medical products in development, including methods to quantify and manage uncertainty, has seen many applications in recent years. However, it is still unclear how such early value assessments can be integrated into the technology innovation process. This commentary contributes to the discussion on the purposes early HTA can serve. Similarities and differences in the perspectives of five stakeholders (i.e., the hospital, the patient, the assessor, the medical device industry, and the policy maker) on the purpose, value, and potential challenges of early HTA are described. All five stakeholders agreed that integrating early HTA in the innovation process has the possibility to shape and refine an innovation, and inform research and development decisions. The early assessment, using a variety of methodologies, can provide insights that are relevant for all stakeholders but several challenges, for example, feasibility and responsibility, need to be addressed before early HTA can become standard practice. For early evaluations to be successful, all relevant stakeholders including patients need to be involved. Also, nimble, flexible assessment methods are needed that fit the dynamics of medical technology. Best practices should be shared to optimize both the innovation process and the methods to perform an early value assessment.

A different animal? Identifying the features of health technology assessment for developers of medical technologies

Health technology assessment (HTA) conducted to inform developers of health technologies (development-focused HTA, DF-HTA) has a number of distinct features when compared to HTA conducted to inform usage decisions (use-focused HTA). To conduct effective DF-HTA, it is important that analysts are aware of its distinct features as analyses are often not published. We set out a framework of ten features, drawn from the literature and our own experience: a target audience of developers and investors; an underlying user objective to maximize return on investment; a broad range of decisions to inform; wide decision space; reduced evidence available; earlier timing of analysis; fluid business model; constrained resources for analysis; a positive stance of analysis; and a "consumer"-specific burden of proof. This paper presents a framework of ten features of DF-HTA intended to initiate debate as well as provide an introduction for analysts unfamiliar with the field.

Target Product Profiles for medical tests: a systematic review of current methods

BACKGROUND

A Target Product Profile (TPP) outlines the necessary characteristics of an innovative product to address an unmet clinical need. TPPs could be used to better guide manufacturers in the development of 'fit for purpose' tests, thus increasing the likelihood that novel tests will progress from bench to bedside. However, there is currently no guidance on how to produce a TPP specifically for medical tests.

METHODS

A systematic review was conducted to summarise the methods currently used to develop TPPs for medical tests, the sources used to inform these recommendations and the test characteristics for which targets are made. Database and website searches were conducted in November 2018. TPPs written in English for any medical test were included. Based on an existing framework, test characteristics were clustered into commonly recognised themes.

RESULTS

Forty-four TPPs were identified, all of which focused on diagnostic tests for infectious diseases. Three core decision-making phases for developing TPPs were identified: scoping, drafting and consensus-building. Consultations with experts and the literature mostly informed the scoping and drafting of TPPs. All TPPs provided information on unmet clinical need and desirable analytical performance, and the majority specified clinical validity characteristics. Few TPPs described specifications for clinical utility, and none included cost-effectiveness.

CONCLUSIONS

We have identified a commonly used framework that could be beneficial for anyone interested in drafting a TPP for a medical test. Currently, key outcomes such as utility and cost-effectiveness are largely overlooked within TPPs though and we foresee this as an area for further improvement.

How Useful Are Early Economic Models? Comment on "Problems and Promises of Health Technologies: The Role of Early Health Economic Modelling"

Early economic modelling has long been recommended to aid research and development (R&D) decisions in medical innovation, although they are less frequently published and critically appraised. A review of 30 innovations by Grutters et al provides an opportunity to evaluate how early models are used in practice. The evidence of early models can be used to inform two types of decision: to continue development ("stop or go") or to alter future R&D activities. I argue that early models have limited use in stop or go decisions, as less resource and data undermine the reliability of the models’ indicative estimates of cost-effectiveness. Whilst they are far more useful for informing future R&D directions, the best techniques available from statistical decision science, such as value of information analysis, are not regularly used. It is highly recommended that early models adopt these methods to best deal with uncertainty, quantify the potential value of further research, identify areas of study with the greatest potential benefit and generate recommendations on study design and sample size.

The Lean and Agile Multi-dimensional Process (LAMP) - a new framework for rapid and iterative evidence generation to support health-care technology design and development

Introduction: Health technology assessments (HTA) are tools for policymaking and resource allocation. Early HTAs are increasingly used in design and development of new technologies. Conducting early HTAs is challenging, due to a lack of evidence and significant uncertainties in the technology and the market. A multi-disciplinary approach is considered essential. However, an operational framework that can enable the integration of multi-dimensional evidence into commercialization remains lacking.Areas covered: We developed the Lean and Agile Multi-dimensional Process (LAMP), an early HTA framework, for embedding commercial decision-making in structured evidence generation activities, divided into phases. Diverse evidence in unmet needs, user acceptance, cost-effectiveness, and market competitiveness are being generated in increasing depth. This supports the emergence of design and value propositions that align technology capabilities and clinical and user needs.Expert opinion: We have been applying LAMP to working with medical device and diagnostic industry in the UK. The framework can be adapted to suit different technologies, decision needs, time scales, and resources. LAMP offers a practical solution to the multi-disciplinary approach. Methodologists drive the process by performing evidence generation and synthesis as and by enabling interactions between manufacturers, designers, clinicians, and other key stakeholders.

High Variability in Sepsis Guidelines in UK: Why Does It Matter?

It is recommended that developers of Point Of Care Tests (POCTs) assess the care pathway of the patient population of interest in order to understand if the POCT fits within the pathway and has the potential to improve it. If the variation of the pathway across potential hospitals is large, then it is likely that the evaluation of effectiveness is harder and the route towards large-scale takes adoption longer. Evaluating care pathways can be a time-consuming activity when conducted through clinical audits or interviews with healthcare professionals. We have developed a more rapid methodology which extrapolates the care pathway from local hospital guidelines and assesses their variation. Sepsis kills 46,000 people per year in the UK with societal costs of up to £10 billion. Therefore, there is a clinical need for an optimized pathway. By applying our method in this field, we were able to assess the variation in current hospital guidelines for sepsis and infer the potential impact this may have on the evidence development on innovations in this applications. We obtained 15 local sepsis guidelines. Two independent reviewers extracted: use of the national early warning score (NEWS), signs and risk factors informing the decision to prescribe antibiotics, and the number of decisional steps up to this point. Considerable variation was observed in all the variables, which is likely to have an impact on future clinical and economic evaluations and adoption of POCT for the identification of patients with sepsis.

Health Economic Decision Tree Models of Diagnostics for Dummies: A Pictorial Primer

Health economics is a discipline of economics applied to health care. One method used in health economics is decision tree modelling, which extrapolates the cost and effectiveness of competing interventions over time. Such decision tree models are the basis of reimbursement decisions in countries using health technology assessment for decision making. In many instances, these competing interventions are diagnostic technologies. Despite a wealth of excellent resources describing the decision analysis of diagnostics, two critical errors persist: not including diagnostic test accuracy in the structure of decision trees and treating sequential diagnostics as independent. These errors have consequences for the accuracy of model results, and thereby impact on decision making. This paper sets out to overcome these errors using color to link fundamental epidemiological calculations to decision tree models in a visually and intuitively appealing pictorial format. The paper is a must-read for modelers developing decision trees in the area of diagnostics for the first time and decision makers reviewing diagnostic reimbursement models.

How to Ease the Pain of Taking a Diagnostic Point of Care Test to the Market: A Framework for Evidence Development

Bringing a diagnostic point of care test (POCT) to a healthcare market can be a painful experience as it requires the manufacturer to meet considerable technical, financial, managerial, and regulatory challenges. In this opinion article we propose a framework for developing the evidence needed to support product development, marketing, and adoption. We discuss each step in the evidence development pathway from the invention phase to the implementation of a new POCT in the healthcare system. We highlight the importance of articulating the value propositions and documenting the care pathway. We provide guidance on how to conduct care pathway analysis as little has been published on this. We summarize the clinical, economic and qualitative studies to be considered for developing evidence, and provide useful links to relevant software, on-line applications, websites, and give practical advice. We also provide advice on patient and public involvement and engagement (PPIE), and on product management. Our aim is to help device manufacturers to understand the concepts and terminology used in evaluation of in vitro diagnostics (IVDs) so that they can communicate effectively with evaluation methodologists, statisticians, and health economists. Manufacturers of medical tests and devices can use the proposed framework to plan their evidence development strategy in alignment with device development, applications for regulatory approval, and publication.