Balancing the risks and benefits of using emergency diagnostic radiocontrast studies to diagnose life-threatening illness in critically ill patients: a decision analysis

Predicting contrast-induced nephropathy after CT pulmonary angiography in the critically ill: a retrospective cohort study

Background

It is uncertain whether we can predict contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) after CT pulmonary angiography (CTPA). This study compared the ability of a validated CIN prediction score with the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) in predicting CIN after CTPA.

Methods

This cohort study involved critically ill adult patients who required a CTPA to exclude acute pulmonary embolism (PE). Patients with end-stage renal failure requiring dialysis were excluded. CIN was defined as an elevation in plasma creatinine concentrations > 44.2μmol/l (or 0.5 mg/dl) within 48 h after CTPA.

Results

Of the 137 patients included, 77 (51%) were hypotensive, 54 (39%) required inotropic support, and 68 (50%) were mechanically ventilated prior to the CTPA. Acute PE was confirmed in 21 patients (15%) with 14 (10%) being bilateral. CIN occurred in 56 patients (41%) with 35 (26%) required dialysis subsequent to CTPA. The CIN prediction score had a good ability to discriminate between patients with and without developing CIN (Area under the receiver-operating-characteristic (AUROC) curve 0.864, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.795–0.916) and requiring subsequent dialysis (AUROC 0.897, 95% CI 0.833–0.942) and was better than the PESI in predicting both outcomes (AUROC 0.731, 95% CI 0.649–0.804 and 0.775, 95% CI 0.696–0.842, respectively). A CIN risk score > 10 and 12 had an 82.1 and 85.7% sensitivity and 81.5 and 78.4% specificity to predict subsequent CIN and dialysis, respectively. The CIN prediction model tended to underestimate the observed risks of dialysis, but this was improved after recalibrating the slope and intercept of the original prediction equation.

Conclusions

The CIN prediction score had a good ability to discriminate between critically ill patients with and without developing CIN after CTPA. Used together for critically ill patients with suspected acute PE, the CIN prediction score and PESI may be useful to inform clinicians when the benefits of a CTPA scan will outweigh its potential harms.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s40560-018-0274-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.