The promise of complementarity: Using the methods of foresight for health workforce planning

The 'health workforce crisis' and 'the medical manpower problem': New term, old problems

The recent, but overdue, publication of the NHS Long Term Workforce Plan marks a welcome investment in the future sustainability of the service. The Plan includes a near doubling of medical and nursing school places, a proposed shortening of medical degrees, growth in 'new roles' including associates and apprentices, reduced overseas recruitment of staff and efforts to boost productivity and retention. While the plan was greeted with enthusiasm by many, criticisms were also numerous. This short opinion piece does not aim to add to the critique, but instead presents an argument for why, in trying to understand the persistence of the 'health workforce crisis' across the world, we might usefully think back seven decades to international efforts to address the 'medical manpower problem'. Here, the manpower concept offers a hugely useful heuristic to think through the contours of time, space and resources that characterise(d) efforts to forecast and anticipate future health needs and, therefore, staff and resourcing. Geographers, I argue, should have far more to say about these conceptual continuities in modes and means of problematisation, as well as their consequences.

Health workforce governance and professions: a re-analysis of New Zealand's primary care workforce policy actors

BACKGROUND

This article contributes to the health workforce planning literature by exploring the dynamics of health professions in New Zealand's Primary Care sector and deriving broad lessons for an international audience. Professions tend influence health policy and governance decisions and practices to retain their place, status and influence. Therefore, understanding their power dynamics and the positions that they have on workforce policies and issues assists workforce governance or health system reform plans.

METHODS

Using the infrequently reported health workforce policy tool, actor analysis, a reanalysis of previously collected data is undertaken using an actor-based framework for the study of professionalism. Two models were developed, (1) the framework's original four-actor model and (2) a five-actor model for the comparison of the Medical and Nurse professions. Existing workforce actor data were reclassified, formatted, and entered into actor analysis software to reveal the professions' relative power, inter-relationships and strategic workforce issue positions.

RESULTS

In the four-actor model, the Organised user actor is found to be most influential, while the others are found to be dependent. In the five-actor model, the Medical and Nurse professions are individually more influential than their combined position in the four-actor model. Practicing professionals and Organised user actors have strong converging inter-relationships over workforce issues in both models, though in the five-actor model, the Nurse profession has weaker coherency than the Medical profession. The Medical and Nurse professions are found to be in opposition over the workforce issues labelled divisive.

CONCLUSIONS

These results reflect the professions' potential to influence New Zealand's Primary Care sector, indicating their power and influence over a range of policy and reform measures. As such, the four lessons that are derived from the case indicate to policy makers that they should be aware of situational contexts and actor power, take care when encountering divisive issues and try to achieve broad-based support for proposed policies.

National cross-sectional study of the sociodemographic characteristics of Aotearoa New Zealand's regulated health workforce pre-registration students: a mirror on society?

OBJECTIVES

To provide a sociodemographic profile of students enrolled in their first year of a health professional pre-registration programme offered within New Zealand (NZ) tertiary institutions.

DESIGN

Observational, cross-sectional study. Data were sought from NZ tertiary education institutions for all eligible students accepted into the first 'professional' year of a health professional programme for the 5-year period 2016-2020 inclusive.

VARIABLES OF INTEREST

gender, citizenship, ethnicity, rural classification, socioeconomic deprivation, school type and school socioeconomic scores. Analyses were carried out using the R statistics software.

SETTING

Aotearoa NZ.

PARTICIPANTS

All students (domestic and international) accepted into the first 'professional' year of a health professional programme leading to registration under the Health Practitioners Competence Assurance Act 2003.

RESULTS

NZ's health workforce pre-registration students do not reflect the diverse communities they will serve in several important dimensions. There is a systematic under-representation of students who identify as Māori and Pacific, and students who come from low socioeconomic and rural backgrounds. The enrolment rate for Māori students is about 99 per 100 000 eligible population and for some Pacific ethnic groups is lower still, compared with 152 per 100 000 for NZ European students. The unadjusted rate ratio for enrolment for both Māori students and Pacific students versus 'NZ European and Other' students is approximately 0.7.

CONCLUSIONS

We recommend that: (1) there should be a nationally coordinated system for collecting and reporting on the sociodemographic characteristics of the health workforce pre-registration; (2) mechanisms be developed to allow the agencies that fund tertiary education to base their funding decisions directly on the projected health workforce needs of the health system and (3) tertiary education funding decisions be based on Te Tiriti o Waitangi (the foundational constitutional agreement between the Indigenous people, Māori and the British Crown signed in 1840) and have a strong pro-equity focus.

The needs-based health workforce planning method: a systematic scoping review of analytical applications

Although the theoretical underpinnings and analytical framework for needs-based health workforce planning are well developed and tested, its uptake in national planning processes is still limited. Towards the development of open-access needs-based planning model for national workforce planning, we conducted a systematic scoping review of analytical applications of needs-based health workforce models. Guided by the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses-extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR) checklist, a systematic scoping review was conducted. A systematic search of peer-reviewed literature published in English was undertaken across several databases. Papers retrieved were assessed against predefined inclusion criteria, critically appraised, extracted and synthesized. Twenty-five papers were included, which showed increasing uptake of the needs-based health workforce modelling, with 84% of the studies published within the last decade (2010-20). Three countries (Canada, Australia and England) accounted for 48% of the publications included whilst four studies (16%) were based on low-and-middle-income countries. Only three of the studies were conducted in sub-Saharan Africa. Most of the studies (36%) reported analytical applications for specific disease areas/programs at sub-national levels; 20% focused on the health system need for particular categories of health workers, and only two (8%) reported the analytical application of the needs-based health workforce approach at the level of a national health system across several disease areas/programs. Amongst the studies that conducted long-term projections, the time horizon of the projection was an average of 17 years, ranging from 3 to 33 years. Most of these studies had a minimum time horizon of 10 years. Across the studies, we synthesized six typical methodological considerations for advancing needs-based health workforce modelling. As countries aspire to align health workforce investments with population health needs, the need for some level of methodological harmonization, open-access needs-based models and guidelines for policy-oriented country-level use is not only imperative but urgent.

Foresight in the time of COVID-19

Foresight methodologies enable individuals and organizations to envision different future scenarios and plan for greater future resilience. However, foresight is an underused methodology in the Western Pacific region for health policy development that could be extremely beneficial, among other areas, in the context of public health emergency response. We present lessons learned from the application of foresight methodologies through remote, agile think tank sprints to inform the World Health Organization (WHO) Western Pacific Regional Office's (WPRO) response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Four think tanks were set up in topic areas of interest. The think tanks used a six-step foresight methodology to develop scenarios for the pandemic in an 18-month horizon. Backcasting was used to generate recommendations for WHO response and support for countries. This case study demonstrates the value of using foresight methodologies in public health, and specifically in the context of a public health emergency, and its ability to inform more context-appropriate and future-proof responses.

FUNDING

Japan.

Health workforce planning under conditions of uncertainty: identifying supportive integrated care policies using scenario analysis

Purpose

Integrated care presents health workforce planners with significant uncertainty. This results from: (1) these workforces are likely in the future to be different from the present, (2) integrated care's variable definitions and (3) workforce policy and planning is not familiar with addressing such challenges. One means to deal with uncertainty is scenario analysis. In this study we reveal some integration-supportive workforce governance and planning policies that were derived from the application of scenario analysis.

Design/methodology/approach

Through a mixed methods design that applies content analysis, scenario construction and the policy Delphi method, we analysed a set of New Zealand's older persons health sector workforce scenarios. Developed from data gathered from workforce documents and studies, the scenarios were evaluated by a suitably qualified panel, and derived policy statements were assessed for desirability and feasibility.

Findings

One scenario was found to be most favourable, based on its broad focus, inclusion of prevention and references to patient dignity, although funding changes were indicated as necessary for its realisation. The integration-supportive policies are based on promoting network-based care models, patient-centric funding that promotes collaboration and the enhancement of interprofessional education and educator involvement.

Originality/value

Scenario analysis for policy production is rare in health workforce planning. We show how it is possible to identify policies to address an integrated care workforce's development using this method. The article provides value for planners and decision-makers by identifying the pros and cons of future situations and offers guidance on how to reduce uncertainty through policy rehearsal and reflection.

Rethinking workforce planning for integrated care: using scenario analysis to facilitate policy development

BACKGROUND

A goal of health workforce planning is to have the most appropriate workforce available to meet prevailing needs. However, this is a difficult task when considering integrated care, as future workforces may require different numbers, roles and skill mixes than those at present. With this uncertainty and large variations in what constitutes integrated care, current health workforce policy and planning processes are poorly placed to respond. In order to address this issue, we present a scenario-based workforce planning approach.

METHODS

We propose a novel mixed methods design, incorporating content analysis, scenario methods and scenario analysis through the use of a policy Delphi. The design prescribes that data be gathered from workforce documents and studies that are used to develop scenarios, which are then assessed by a panel of suitably qualified people. Assessment consists of evaluating scenario desirability, feasibility and validity and includes a process for indicating policy development opportunities.

RESULTS

We confirmed our method using data from New Zealand's Older Persons Health sector and its workforce. Three scenarios resulted, one that reflects a normative direction and two alternatives that reflect key sector workforce drivers and trends. One of these, based on alternative assumptions, was found to be more desirable by the policy Delphi panel. The panel also found a number of favourable policy proposals.

CONCLUSIONS

The method shows that through applying techniques that have been developed to accommodate uncertainty, health workforce planning can benefit when confronting issues associated with integrated care. The method contributes to overcoming significant weaknesses of present health workforce planning approaches by identifying a wider range of plausible futures and thematic kernels for policy development. The use of scenarios provides a means to contemplate future situations and provides opportunities for policy rehearsal and reflection.

New Zealand health system: universalism struggles with persisting inequities

New Zealand was one of the first countries to establish a universal, tax-funded national health service. Unique features include innovative Māori services, the no-fault accident compensation scheme, and the Pharmaceutical Management Agency, which negotiates with pharmaceutical companies to get the best value for medicines purchased by public money. The so-called universal orientation of the health system, along with a strong commitment to social service provision, have contributed to New Zealand's favourable health statistics. However, despite a long-standing commitment to reducing health inequities, problems with access to care persist and the system is not delivering the promise of equitable health outcomes for all population groups. Primary health services and hospital-based services have developed largely independently, and major restructuring during the 1990s did not produce the expected efficiency gains. A focus on individual-level secondary services and performance targets has been prioritised over tackling issues such as suicide, obesity, and poverty-related diseases through community-based health promotion, preventive activities, and primary care. Future changes need to focus on strengthening the culture and capacity of the system to improve equity of outcomes, including expanding Māori health service provision, integrating existing services and structures with new ones, aligning resources with need to achieve pro-equity outcomes, and strengthening population-based approaches to tackling contemporary drivers of health status.

The evolution of New Zealand's health workforce policy and planning system: a study of workforce governance and health reform

INTRODUCTION

While considerable attention has been given to improving health workforce planning practice, few articles focus on the relationship between health workforce governance and health reform. By outlining a sequence of health reforms, we reveal how New Zealand's health workforce governance and practices came under pressure, leading to a rethink and the introduction of innovative approaches and initiatives.

CASE DESCRIPTION

New Zealand's health system was quite stable up to the late 1980s, after which 30 years of structural and system reform was undertaken. This had the effect of replacing the centralised medically led health workforce policy and planning system with a market-driven and short-run employer-led planning approach. The increasing pressures and inconsistencies this approach produced ultimately led to the re-centralisation of some governance functions and brought with it a new vision of how to better prepare for future health needs. While significant gain has been made implementing this new vision, issues remain for achieving more effective innovation diffusion and improved integrated care orientations.

DISCUSSION AND EVALUATION

The case reveals that there was a failure to consider the health workforce in almost all of the reforms. Health and workforce policy became increasingly disconnected at the central and regional levels, leading to fragmentation, duplication and widening gaps. New Zealand's more recent workforce policy and planning approach has adopted new tools and techniques to overcome these weaknesses that have implications for the workforce and service delivery, workforce governance and planning methodologies. However, further strengthening of workforce governance is required to embed the changes in policy and planning and to improve organisational capabilities to diffuse innovation and respond to evolving roles and team-based models of care.

CONCLUSION

The case reveals that disconnecting the workforce from reform policy leads to a range of debilitating effects. By addressing how it approaches workforce planning and policy, New Zealand is now better placed to plan for a future of integrated and team-based health care. The case provides cues for other countries considering reform agendas, the most important being to include and consider the health workforce in health reform processes.

Demonstrating a new approach to planning and monitoring rural medical training distribution to meet population need in North West Queensland

BACKGROUND

Improving the health of rural populations requires developing a medical workforce with the right skills and a willingness to work in rural areas. A novel strategy for achieving this aim is to align medical training distribution with community need. This research describes an approach for planning and monitoring the distribution of general practice (GP) training posts to meet health needs across a dispersed geographic catchment.

METHODS

An assessment of the location of GP registrars in a large catchment of rural North West Queensland (across 11 sub-regions) in 2017 was made using national workforce supply, rurality and other indicators. These included (1): Index of Access -spatial accessibility (2); 10-year District of Workforce Shortage (DWS) (3); MMM (Modified Monash Model) rurality (4); SEIFA (Socio-Economic Indicator For Areas) (5); Indigenous population and (6) Population size. Distribution was determined relative to GP workforce supply measures and population health needs in each health sub-region of the catchment. An expert panel verified the approach and reliability of findings and discussed the results to inform planning.

RESULTS

378 registrars and 582 supervisors were well-distributed in two sub-regions; in contrast the distribution was below expected levels in three others. Almost a quarter of registrars (24%) were located in the poorest access areas (Index of Access) compared with 15% of the population located in these areas. Relative to the population size, registrars were proportionally over-represented in the most rural towns, those consistently rated as DWS or those with the poorest SEIFA value and highest Indigenous proportion.

CONCLUSIONS

Current regional distribution was good, but individual town-level data further enabled the training provider to discuss the nuance of where and why more registrars (or supervisors) may be needed. The approach described enables distributed workforce planning and monitoring applicable in a range of contexts, with increased sensitivity for registrar distribution planning where most needed, supporting useful discussions about the potential causes and solutions. This evidence-based approach also enables training organisations to engage with local communities, health services and government to address the sustainable development of the long-term GP workforce in these towns.