Evaluation of the new poisoning mortality score in comparison with PSS and SOFA scoring systems to predict mortality in poisoned patients admitted to the intensive care unit

Objective

Mortality prediction in acute poisoning patients aids in prompt and effective treatment. This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of the new Poisoning Mortality Score (PMS) in comparison with the Poison Severity Score (PSS) and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scoring systems in poisoned patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU).

Material and Methods

The medical records of 523 poisoned patients admitted to the ICU of the Poison Control Centre from September 2021 to June 2022 were examined retrospectively. The PMS, PSS, and SOFA scores were calculated based on the worst values of the first 24 h of admission.

Results

A total of 100 patients were enrolled in the study, and the in-hospital mortality rate was 28%. The best cut-off points for predicting mortality for PMS, PSS, and SOFA scores were > 53, > 2, and > 6, with sensitivities of 67.9%, 85.7%, and 82.4% and specificities of 73.6%, 84.7%, and 83.3% respectively. In a pairwise comparison of the AUCs for PMS, PSS, and SOFA scores, SOFA displayed significantly greater accuracy than PSS and PMS.

Conclusion

The PMS, PSS, and SOFA scoring systems were significant predictors of mortality in ICU-admitted poisoned patients, however, the SOFA score showed the best performance (OR = 1.77, and 95% CI = 1.42-2.54) with significant P-value (0.002) as a predictor of mortality and highest AUC(0.904).

Outcome prediction using sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score and serum lactate levels in organophosphate poisoning

Background

Organophosphorus compounds are widely used as pesticides in agriculture practicing countries like India. Since it is readily available and accessible, it is one of the most commonly used agents for suicidal poisoning. The current study was undertaken to evaluate the performance of the SOFA score (scoring system) and the serum lactate level (laboratory parameter) as a mortality predictor in organophosphorus poisoning.

Material and Methods

This prospective observational study was conducted at AIIMS, Bhubaneswar, for 17 months. The study population included all patients with an alleged history of ingestion of organophosphorus (OP) compounds reporting to the casualty. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the logistic regression analysis were used for the analysis.

Results

In our study, 75 patients with OP poisoning were studied after satisfying the inclusion criteria. OP poisoning was commonly seen in married males aged 21-40 years. Twelve (16%) patients died during the process of treatment. There was a statistically significant difference in the mean SOFA score, serum lactate level, pH value, and mean duration of hospital stay between the discharged and the deceased patients. In the current study, the ROC curve analysis used to assess the predictor of the outcome of OP poisoning showed that the area under the curve for SOFA score and serum lactate level were 0.794 (95% CI 0.641-0.948) and 0.659 (95% CI 0.472-0.847), respectively.

Conclusion

Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score is significantly associated with the outcome of organophosphate poisoning and can be utilized to predict mortality.

Prediction of acute organophosphate poisoning severity using machine learning techniques

Poisoning with organophosphate compounds is a significant public health risk, especially in developing countries. Considering the importance of early and accurate prediction of organophosphate poisoning prognosis, the aim of this study was to develop a machine learning-based prediction model to predict the severity of organophosphate poisoning. The data of patients with organophosphate poisoning were retrospectively extracted and split into training and test sets in a ratio of 70:30. The feature selection was done by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method. Selected features were fed into five machine learning techniques, including Histogram Boosting Gradient, eXtreme Gradient Boosting, K-Nearest Neighborhood, Support Vector Machine (SVM) (kernel = linear), and Random Forest. The Scikit-learn library in Python programming language was used to implement the models. Finally, the performance of developed models was measured using ten-fold cross-validation methods and some evaluation criteria with 95 % confidence intervals. A total of 1237 patients were used to train and test the machine learning models. According to the criteria determining severe organophosphate poisoning, 732 patients were assigned to group 1 (patients with mild to moderate poisoning) and 505 patients were assigned to group 2 (patients with severe poisoning). With an AUC value of 0.907 (95 % CI 0.89-0.92), the model developed using XGBoost outperformed other models. Feature importance evaluation found that venous blood gas-pH, white blood cells, and plasma cholinesterase activity were the top three variables that contribute the most to the prediction performance of the prognosis in patients with organophosphate poisoning. XGBoost model yield an accuracy of 90.1 % (95 % CI 0.891-0.918), specificity of 91.4 % (95 % CI 0.90-0.92), a sensitivity of 89.5 % (95 % CI 0.87-0.91), F-measure of 91.2 % (95 % CI 0.90-0.921), and Kappa statistic of 91.2 % (95 % CI 0.90-0.92). The machine learning-based prediction models can accurately predict the severity of organophosphate poisoning. Based on feature selection techniques, the most important predictors of organophosphate poisoning were VBG-pH, white blood cell count, plasma cholinesterase activity, VBG-BE, and age. The best algorithm with the highest predictive performance was the XGBoost classifier.

Red blood cell distribution width at admission predicts outcome in critically ill patients with kidney failure: a retrospective cohort study based on the MIMIC-IV database

PURPOSE

We aimed to explore whether red blood cell distribution width (RDW) could serve as a biomarker to predict outcomes in critically ill patients with kidney failure in this study.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This retrospective study was conducted with the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV).A total of 674 patients were divided into three groups based on tertiles of RDW. We used the generalized additive model, Kaplan-Meier curve, and Cox proportional hazards models to evaluate the association between RDW and clinical outcomes. We then performed subgroup analyses to investigate the stability of the associations between RDW and all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

Nonlinear and J-shaped curves were observed in the generalized additive model. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that patients with elevated RDW had a lower survival rate. The Cox regression model indicated that high levels of RDW were most closely associated with ICU mortality and 30-day mortality (HR = 4.71, 95% CI: 1.69-11.64 and HR = 6.62, 95% CI: 2.84-15.41). Subgroup analyses indicated that the associations between RDW and all-cause mortality were stable.

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated levels of RDW were associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality, and RDW could be an independent prognostic factor for kidney failure.

An exploratory study; the gap between real reference interval and currently used reference interval of RBC AChE activities in South Korea

The current reference interval (RI) FOR red blood cell acetylcholinesterase (RBC AChE) activity in South Korea was established with data obtained from populations outside the country. The aim of this study was to assess the transferability of current RI of RBC AChE activity for organophosphate (OP) poisoning and determine the biological characteristics, real RI, and interindividual variation in RBC AChE activity in South Korea. Data were retrospectively collected for RBC AChE activity as measured by the modified Ellman's method for 782 patients who presented to our hospital. The clinical course did not differ significantly with the degree of deviation of RBC AChE activity from the currently used RI in 195 patients exposed to OP. RBC AChE activity was associated with gender and smoking status but not age or body mass index (BMI); however, a regression model incorporating age, gender, smoking status and BMI explained only a small portion of the variance in RBC AChE activity in South Korea. The RI of RBC AChE activity was 9,403-16,825 U/L, with 13.9% interindividual variation. The range of RBC AChE activity in South Korea is wider than RI currently used in clinical practice and exhibited a high degree of interindividual variation. In the absence of collecting pre-exposure values, it is recommended to conduct serial measurements, rather than one-point measurements, of RBC AChE activity as evidenced by the RI in OP poisoning.

Outcomes of elderly patients with organophosphate intoxication

This study analysed the clinical patterns and outcomes of elderly patients with organophosphate intoxication. A total of 71 elderly patients with organophosphate poisoning were seen between 2008 and 2017. Patients were stratified into two subgroups: survivors (n = 57) or nonsurvivors (n = 14). Chlorpyrifos accounted for 33.8% of the cases, followed by methamidophos (12.7%) and mevinphos (11.3%). Mood, adjustment and psychotic disorder were noted in 39.4%, 33.8% and 2.8% of patients, respectively. All patients were treated with atropine and pralidoxime therapies. Acute cholinergic crisis developed in all cases (100.0%). The complications included respiratory failure (52.1%), aspiration pneumonia (50.7%), acute kidney injury (43.7%), severe consciousness disturbance (25.4%), shock (14.1%) and seizures (4.2%). Some patients also developed intermediate syndrome (15.5%) and delayed neuropathy (4.2%). The nonsurvivors suffered higher rates of hypotension (P < 0.001), shock (P < 0.001) and kidney injury (P = 0.001) than survivors did. Kaplan–Meier analysis indicated that patients with shock suffered lower cumulative survival than did patients without shock (log-rank test, P < 0.001). In a multivariate-Cox-regression model, shock was a significant predictor of mortality after intoxication (odds ratio 18.182, 95% confidence interval 2.045–166.667, P = 0.009). The mortality rate was 19.7%. Acute cholinergic crisis, intermediate syndrome, and delayed neuropathy developed in 100.0%, 15.5%, and 4.2% of patients, respectively.

Serum ammonia as an early predictor of in-hospital mortality in patients with glufosinate poisoning

Background:

The mortality rate associated with human glufosinate poisoning is high. We evaluated the usefulness of serum ammonia and sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) scores for early prediction of in-hospital mortality in glufosinate ammonium poisoning.

Methods:

A prospectively collected pesticide poisoning registry at a single academic medical center was retrospectively analyzed. Data were collected from consecutive patients diagnosed with glufosinate ammonium poisoning between May 2007 and February 2018. The initial serum ammonia level was defined as the highest serum ammonia level measured within 12 h after emergency department (ED) arrival. The SOFA and APACHE II scores were calculated using data obtained within the first 12 h after ED arrival. The patients were divided into survivor and nonsurvivor groups by in-hospital death status.

Results:

In total, 110 patients were included. Ten patients (9.1%) died in the hospital despite treatment. Median initial serum ammonia level was significantly higher in the nonsurvivor group than in the survivor group (219 (range: 158–792) versus 100.5 (range: 25–317) µg/dL, p < 0.001). Median SOFA and APACHE II scores in the survivor and nonsurvivor groups were 2 (range: 0–10) versus 5 (range: 1–8) ( p = 0.044) and 7 (range: 0–28) versus 16 (range: 8–22) ( p = 0.001), respectively. In the multiple logistic regression analysis, the initial serum ammonia level was the only independent predictor (cutoff value: 151 µg/dL).

Conclusion:

An initial serum ammonia level >151 µg/dL was an independent early predictor of in-hospital mortality in glufosinate ammonium poisoning.

The usefulness of the SOFA and APACHE II scoring systems for the early prediction of mortality in patients with dapsone poisoning

The rate of mortality from dapsone poisoning is high because of the long absorption half-life of dapsone. This study aimed to evaluate the usefulness of the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) scoring systems for the early prediction of mortality in patients with dapsone poisoning. This is a retrospective and observational study of consecutive patients diagnosed with dapsone poisoning. The SOFA and APACHE II scores were obtained within the first 24 h of admission. Patients were divided into survivor and non-survivor groups. In total, 106 patients were included. The SOFA scores of the survivor and non-survivor groups were 1 (0–8) and 4 (1–10), respectively ( p < 0.001). The APACHE II scores of the survivor and non-survivor groups were 9 (1–25) and 14 (3–23), respectively ( p < 0.001). Based on these scores and in-hospital mortality cases, the standardized mortality ratios for the APACHE II and SOFA were 1.00 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.64–1.48) and 1.00 (95% CI: 0.64–1.49), respectively. In the model adjusted for clinically important variables and variables with significant differences between the survivor and non-survivor groups, the area under the curve of the SOFA (0.907; 95% CI: 0.834–0.955) was significantly higher than that of the APACHE II (0.793; 95% CI: 0.703–0.867) ( p = 0.008). The SOFA and APACHE II score systems had good discrimination and satisfactory calibration performance in patients with dapsone poisoning. However, the SOFA score was a more useful method in predicting mortality than the APACHE II score.