Lessons for Theory from Scientific Domains Where Evidence is Sparse or Indirect

In many scientific fields, sparseness and indirectness of empirical evidence pose fundamental challenges to theory development. Theories of the evolution of human cognition provide a guiding example, where the targets of study are evolutionary processes that occurred in the ancestors of present-day humans. In many cases, the evidence is both very sparse and very indirect (e.g., archaeological findings regarding anatomical changes that might be related to the evolution of language capabilities); in other cases, the evidence is less sparse but still very indirect (e.g., data on cultural transmission in groups of contemporary humans and non-human primates). From examples of theoretical and empirical work in this domain, we distill five virtuous practices that scientists could aim to satisfy when evidence is sparse or indirect: (i) making assumptions explicit, (ii) making alternative theories explicit, (iii) pursuing computational and formal modelling, (iv) seeking external consistency with theories of related phenomena, and (v) triangulating across different forms and sources of evidence. Thus, rather than inhibiting theory development, sparseness or indirectness of evidence can catalyze it. To the extent that there are continua of sparseness and indirectness that vary across domains and that the principles identified here always apply to some degree, the solutions and advantages proposed here may generalise to other scientific domains.

Toward Understanding of the Social Hysteresis: Insights From Agent-Based Modeling

Hysteresis has been used to understand various social phenomena, such as political polarization, the persistence of the vaccination-compliance problem, or the delayed response of employees in a firm to wage incentives. The aim of this article is to show the insights that can be gained from using agent-based models (ABMs) to study hysteresis. To build up an intuition about hysteresis, we start with an illustrative example from physics that demonstrates how hysteresis manifests as collective memory. Next, we present examples of hysteresis in psychology and social systems. We then present two simple ABMs of binary decisions-the Ising model and the q-voter model-to explain how hysteresis can be observed in ABMs. Specifically, we show that hysteresis can result from the influence of various external factors present in social systems, such as organizational polices, governmental laws, or mass media campaigns, as well as internal noise associated with random changes in agent decisions. Finally, we clarify the relationship between several closely related concepts such as order-disorder transitions or bifurcation, and we conclude the article with a discussion of the advantages of ABMs.

Assessing the economic ripple effect of flood disasters in light of the recovery process: Insights from an agent-based model

To assess the economic ripple effect, this study integrates agent-based modeling (ABM) with a multiregional input-output (MRIO) table to develop an assessment model that considers capacity recovery process. The intermediate and final demands in the MRIO table are used to describe the agents' interdependence. Survival analysis is used to construct capacity rate curves. By defining the first- and second-order ripple effects, ABM is used to capture the ripple process in days. To conduct a case study, the service and retail sectors in Enshi in Hubei, China, are selected as disaster-affected sectors (they were severely affected by the July 17, 2020 flood disaster). The main findings are as follows: (1) With the first-order ripple effect, the losses caused by service and retail are concentrated within Enshi. Enshi's final demand, construction, and raw materials manufacturing sectors as well as Wuhan's construction sector are seriously affected. (2) With the second-order ripple effect, the losses caused by the service and retail sectors expand, forming a prominent industrial ripple chain: "service (retail)-raw materials manufacturing-construction." (3) The direct and indirect losses caused by the service sector are more significant than those caused by the retail sector. However, the loss ratio of the service sector is smaller than that of the retail sector because of its sound industrial structure and strong resilience. Hence, the indirect losses caused by different sectors are not entirely determined by their direct losses; instead, they are also related to the degree of perfection of the structures of different sectors.

Psychological inoculation can reduce susceptibility to misinformation in large rational agent networks

The unchecked spread of misinformation is recognized as an increasing threat to public, scientific and democratic health. Online networks are a contributing cause of this spread, with echo chambers and polarization indicative of the interplay between the search behaviours of users and reinforcement processes within the system they inhabit. Recent empirical work has focused on interventions aimed at inoculating people against misinformation, yielding success on the individual level. However, given the evolving, dynamic information context of online networks, important questions remain regarding how such inoculation interventions interact with network systems. Here we use an agent-based model of a social network populated with belief-updating users. We find that although equally rational agents may be assisted by inoculation interventions to reject misinformation, even among such agents, intervention efficacy is temporally sensitive. We find that as beliefs disseminate, users form self-reinforcing echo chambers, leading to belief consolidation-irrespective of their veracity. Interrupting this process requires 'front-loading' of inoculation interventions by targeting critical thresholds of network users before consolidation occurs. We further demonstrate the value of harnessing tipping point dynamics for herd immunity effects, and note that inoculation processes do not necessarily lead to increased rates of 'false-positive' rejections of truthful communications.

Social media and well-being: A methodological perspective

Due to the methodological challenges inherent in studying social media use (SMU), as well as the methodological choices that have shaped research into the effects of SMU on well-being, clear conclusions regarding relationships between SMU and well-being remain elusive. We provide a review of five methodological developments poised to provide increased understanding in this domain: (a) increased use of longitudinal and experimental designs; (b) the adoption of behavioural (rather than self-report) measures of SMU; (c) focusing on more nuanced aspects of SMU; (d) embracing effect heterogeneity; and (e) the use of formal modelling and machine learning. We focus on how these advances stand to bring us closer to understanding relations between SMU and well-being, as well as the challenges associated with these developments.

From evolutionary ecosystem simulations to computational models of human behavior

We have a wide breadth of computational tools available today that enable a more ethical approach to the study of human cognition and behavior. We argue that the use of computer models to study evolving ecosystems provides a rich source of inspiration, as they enable the study of complex systems that change over time. Often employing a combination of genetic algorithms and agent-based models, these methods span theoretical approaches from games to complexification, nature-inspired methods from studies of self-replication to the evolution of eyes, and evolutionary ecosystems of humans, from entire economies to the effects of personalities in teamwork. The review of works provided here illustrates the power of evolutionary ecosystem simulations and how they enable new insights for researchers. They also demonstrate a novel methodology of hypothesis exploration: building a computational model that encapsulates a hypothesis of human cognition enables it to be tested under different conditions, with its predictions compared to real data to enable corroboration. Such computational models of human behavior provide us with virtual test labs in which unlimited experiments can be performed. This article is categorized under: Computer Science and Robotics > Artificial Intelligence.