Youth Actuarial Risk Assessment Tool (Y-ARAT): The development of an actuarial risk assessment instrument for predicting general offense recidivism on the basis of police records

Interrelatedness of Family and Parenting Risk Factors for Juvenile Delinquency: A Network Study in U.S. and Dutch Juveniles

Family interventions that address a diversity of family and parenting factors are often used to prevent juvenile delinquency, but are effective to only a limited extent. This study applied a network approach to risk factors for juvenile delinquency and examined the interrelatedness of specifically family and parenting risk factors in a U.S. and separate Dutch sample of juveniles and their family members. Differences in interrelatedness between these samples were examined as well. Secondary analyses were conducted on data collected in the United States with the Washington State Juvenile Court Assessment (WSJCA) and on data collected in the Netherlands with a Dutch-adapted translation of the WSJCA. Network analyses were performed, separately for the U.S. (N = 13,613) and Dutch (N = 3,630) sample, on seven risk factors that were assessed with a three-point Likert scale ranging from each factor's protective side to a corresponding risk side. In the U.S. sample network, "inadequate parental punishment" and "lack of parental supervision" that both refer to an authoritarian parenting style were the most "central" factors and had the strongest associations with the other risk factors. In the Dutch sample network, "the family not providing opportunities" and "inadequate parental reward" were the most "central" factors, which refer to an authoritative parenting style. The family and parenting factors identified as most central in the networks may be promising to address in family interventions, as it can be expected that both the directly addressed problems and their correlated problems will improve. The current results may inform attempts to strengthen family interventions for juvenile delinquency in the United States and the Netherlands.

The Development and Validation of an Actuarial Risk Assessment Tool for the Prediction of First-Time Offending

For prevention purposes, it is important that police officers can estimate the risk for delinquency among juveniles who were involved in a criminal offense, but not in the role of a suspect. In the present study, the Youth Actuarial Risk Assessment Tool for First-Time Offending (Y-ARAT-FO) was developed based solely on police records with the aim to enable Dutch police officers to predict the risk for first-time offending. For the construction of this initial screening instrument, an Exhaustive Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detector (Exhaustive CHAID) analysis was performed on a data set that was retrieved from the Dutch police system. The Y-ARAT-FO was developed on a sample of 1,368 juveniles and validated on a different sample of 886 juveniles showing moderate predictive accuracy in the validation sample (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] = .728). The predictive accuracy of the Y-ARAT-FO was considered sufficient to justify its use as an initial screening instrument by the Dutch police.