Incidence and Prognosis Nomogram of Small Solitary Lung Cancer (≤2 cm) With Extra-Thoracic Metastasis at Initial Diagnosis:A Population-Based Study

A nomogram predicting the risk of extrathoracic metastasis at initial diagnosis of T≤3cmN0 lung cancer

Background

The risk and risk factors of extrathoracic metastasis at initial diagnosis in T≤3cmN0 lung cancer patients are not fully understood. We aimed to develop a model to predict the risk of extrathoracic metastasis in those patients.

Methods

Clinicopathological data of patients were collected from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Univariable and multivariable analyses using logistic regression were conducted to identify risk factors. A predictive model and corresponding nomogram were developed based on the risk factors. The model was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and decision curve.

Results

A total of 20,057 T≤3cmN0 patients were enrolled, of whom 251 (1.25%) were diagnosed with extrathoracic metastasis at the initial diagnosis. Aged ≤50 [odds ratio (OR): 2.05, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.19-3.53, P=0.01] and aged ≥81 [1.65 (1.05-2.58), P=0.03], Hispanic [1.81 (1.20-2.71), P=0.004], location of bronchus [3.18 (1.08-9.35), P=0.04], larger tumor size, pleural invasion, and a history of colorectal cancer [2.01 (1.01-4.00), P=0.046] were independent risk factors. In the training cohort and validation cohort, the AUCs of the developed model were 0.727, 0.728 respectively, and the results of Hosmer-Lemeshow test were P=0.47, P=0.61 respectively. The decision curve showed good clinical meaning of the model.

Conclusions

Extrathoracic metastasis at initial diagnosis in T≤3cmN0 lung cancer patients was not rare. The model based on the risk factors showed good performance in predicting the risk of extrathoracic metastasis.

Prognostic factors and survival prediction of resected non-small cell lung cancer with ipsilateral pulmonary metastases: a study based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database

BACKGROUND

Prognostic factors and survival outcomes of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) with Ipsilateral pulmonary metastasis (IPM) are not well-defined. Thus, this study intended to identify the prognostic factors for these patients and construct a predictive nomogram model.

METHODS

One thousand, seven hundred thirty-two patients with IPM identified between 2000 to 2019 were from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Independent prognostic factors were identified using multivariate Cox regression analyses. Nomograms were constructed to predict the overall survival (OS), C-index, the area under the curve (AUC), and the calibration curve to determine the predictive accuracy and discrimination; the decision curve analysis was used to confirm the clinical utility.

RESULTS

Patients were randomly divided into training (n = 1213) and validation (n = 519) cohorts. In the training cohort, the multivariable analysis demonstrated that age, sex, primary tumor size, N status, number of regional lymph nodes removed, tumor grade, and chemotherapy were independent prognostic factors for IPM. We constructed a 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year OS prediction nomogram model using independent prognostic factors. The C-index of this model for OS prediction was 0.714 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.692 to 0.773) in the training cohort and 0.695 (95% CI, 0.660 to 0.730) in the validation cohort. Based on the AUC of the receiver operating characteristic analysis, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis, we concluded that the prognosis model of IPM exhibited excellent performance. Patients with total nomogram points greater than 96 were considered high-risk.

CONCLUSION

We constructed and internally validated a nomogram to predict 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year OS for NSCLC patients with IPM according to independent prognostic factors. This nomogram demonstrated good calibration, discrimination, clinical utility, and practical decision-making effects for the prognosis of NSCLC patients with IPM.

Advances in diagnosis and prediction for aggression of pure solid T1 lung cancer

A growing number of early-stage lung cancers presenting as malignant pulmonary nodules have been diagnosed because of the increased adoption of low-dose spiral computed tomography. But pure solid T1 lung cancer with ≤3 cm in the greatest dimension is not always at an early stage, despite its small size. This type of cancer can be highly aggressive and is associated with pathological involvement, metastasis, postoperative relapse, and even death. However, it is easily misdiagnosed or delay diagnosed in clinics and thus poses a serious threat to human health. The percentage of nodal or extrathoracic metastases has been reported to be >20% in T1 lung cancer. As such, understanding and identifying the aggressive characteristics of pure solid T1 lung cancer is crucial for prevention, diagnosis, and therapeutic strategies, and beneficial to improving the prognosis. With the widespread of lung cancer screening, these highly invasive pure solid T1 lung cancer will become the main advanced lung cancer in future. However, there is limited information regarding precision medicine on how to identify these "early-stage" aggressive lung cancers. To provide clinicians with new insights into early recognition and intervention of the highly invasive pure solid T1 lung cancer, this review summarizes its clinical characteristics, imaging, pathology, gene alterations, immune microenvironment, multi-omics, and current techniques for diagnosis and prediction.