Prognostic models for predicting clinical disease progression, worsening and activity in people with multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic inflammatory disease of the central nervous system that affects millions of people worldwide. The disease course varies greatly across individuals and many disease-modifying treatments with different safety and efficacy profiles have been developed recently. Prognostic models evaluated and shown to be valid in different settings have the potential to support people with MS and their physicians during the decision-making process for treatment or disease/life management, allow stratified and more precise interpretation of interventional trials, and provide insights into disease mechanisms. Many researchers have turned to prognostic models to help predict clinical outcomes in people with MS; however, to our knowledge, no widely accepted prognostic model for MS is being used in clinical practice yet.

OBJECTIVES

To identify and summarise multivariable prognostic models, and their validation studies for quantifying the risk of clinical disease progression, worsening, and activity in adults with MS.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews from January 1996 until July 2021. We also screened the reference lists of included studies and relevant reviews, and references citing the included studies.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included all statistically developed multivariable prognostic models aiming to predict clinical disease progression, worsening, and activity, as measured by disability, relapse, conversion to definite MS, conversion to progressive MS, or a composite of these in adult individuals with MS. We also included any studies evaluating the performance of (i.e. validating) these models. There were no restrictions based on language, data source, timing of prognostication, or timing of outcome.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Pairs of review authors independently screened titles/abstracts and full texts, extracted data using a piloted form based on the Checklist for Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies (CHARMS), assessed risk of bias using the Prediction Model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST), and assessed reporting deficiencies based on the checklist items in Transparent Reporting of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis (TRIPOD). The characteristics of the included models and their validations are described narratively. We planned to meta-analyse the discrimination and calibration of models with at least three external validations outside the model development study but no model met this criterion. We summarised between-study heterogeneity narratively but again could not perform the planned meta-regression.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 57 studies, from which we identified 75 model developments, 15 external validations corresponding to only 12 (16%) of the models, and six author-reported validations. Only two models were externally validated multiple times. None of the identified external validations were performed by researchers independent of those that developed the model. The outcome was related to disease progression in 39 (41%), relapses in 8 (8%), conversion to definite MS in 17 (18%), and conversion to progressive MS in 27 (28%) of the 96 models or validations. The disease and treatment-related characteristics of included participants, and definitions of considered predictors and outcome, were highly heterogeneous amongst the studies. Based on the publication year, we observed an increase in the percent of participants on treatment, diversification of the diagnostic criteria used, an increase in consideration of biomarkers or treatment as predictors, and increased use of machine learning methods over time. Usability and reproducibility All identified models contained at least one predictor requiring the skills of a medical specialist for measurement or assessment. Most of the models (44; 59%) contained predictors that require specialist equipment likely to be absent from primary care or standard hospital settings. Over half (52%) of the developed models were not accompanied by model coefficients, tools, or instructions, which hinders their application, independent validation or reproduction. The data used in model developments were made publicly available or reported to be available on request only in a few studies (two and six, respectively). Risk of bias We rated all but one of the model developments or validations as having high overall risk of bias. The main reason for this was the statistical methods used for the development or evaluation of prognostic models; we rated all but two of the included model developments or validations as having high risk of bias in the analysis domain. None of the model developments that were externally validated or these models' external validations had low risk of bias. There were concerns related to applicability of the models to our research question in over one-third (38%) of the models or their validations. Reporting deficiencies Reporting was poor overall and there was no observable increase in the quality of reporting over time. The items that were unclearly reported or not reported at all for most of the included models or validations were related to sample size justification, blinding of outcome assessors, details of the full model or how to obtain predictions from it, amount of missing data, and treatments received by the participants. Reporting of preferred model performance measures of discrimination and calibration was suboptimal.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

The current evidence is not sufficient for recommending the use of any of the published prognostic prediction models for people with MS in clinical routine today due to lack of independent external validations. The MS prognostic research community should adhere to the current reporting and methodological guidelines and conduct many more state-of-the-art external validation studies for the existing or newly developed models.

Lessons from immunotherapies in multiple sclerosis

The improved understanding of multiple sclerosis (MS) neurobiology alongside the development of novel markers of disease will allow precision medicine to be applied to MS patients, bringing the promise of improved care. Combinations of clinical and paraclinical data are currently used for diagnosis and prognosis. The addition of advanced magnetic resonance imaging and biofluid markers has been strongly encouraged, since classifying patients according to the underlying biology will improve monitoring and treatment strategies. For example, silent progression seems to contribute significantly more than relapses to overall disability accumulation, but currently approved treatments for MS act mainly on neuroinflammation and offer only a partial protection against neurodegeneration. Further research, involving traditional and adaptive trial designs, should strive to halt, repair or protect against central nervous system damage. To personalize new treatments, their selectivity, tolerability, ease of administration, and safety must be considered, while to personalize treatment approaches, patient preferences, risk-aversion, and lifestyle must be factored in, and patient feedback used to indicate real-world treatment efficacy. The use of biosensors and machine-learning approaches to integrate biological, anatomical, and physiological parameters will take personalized medicine a step closer toward the patient's virtual twin, in which treatments can be tried before they are applied.

Brain microstructural and metabolic alterations detected in vivo at onset of the first demyelinating event

In early multiple sclerosis, a clearer understanding of normal-brain tissue microstructural and metabolic abnormalities will provide valuable insights into its pathophysiology. We used multi-parametric quantitative MRI to detect alterations in brain tissues of patients with their first demyelinating episode. We acquired neurite orientation dispersion and density imaging [to investigate morphology of neurites (dendrites and axons)] and ²³Na MRI (to estimate total sodium concentration, a reflection of underlying changes in metabolic function). In this cross-sectional study, we enrolled 42 patients diagnosed with clinically isolated syndrome or multiple sclerosis within 3 months of their first demyelinating event and 16 healthy controls. Physical and cognitive scales were assessed. At 3 T, we acquired brain and spinal cord structural scans, and neurite orientation dispersion and density imaging. Thirty-two patients and 13 healthy controls also underwent brain ²³Na MRI. We measured neurite density and orientation dispersion indices and total sodium concentration in brain normal-appearing white matter, white matter lesions, and grey matter. We used linear regression models (adjusting for brain parenchymal fraction and lesion load) and Spearman correlation tests (significance level P ≤ 0.01). Patients showed higher orientation dispersion index in normal-appearing white matter, including the corpus callosum, where they also showed lower neurite density index and higher total sodium concentration, compared with healthy controls. In grey matter, compared with healthy controls, patients demonstrated: lower orientation dispersion index in frontal, parietal and temporal cortices; lower neurite density index in parietal, temporal and occipital cortices; and higher total sodium concentration in limbic and frontal cortices. Brain volumes did not differ between patients and controls. In patients, higher orientation dispersion index in corpus callosum was associated with worse performance on timed walk test (P = 0.009, B = 0.01, 99% confidence interval = 0.0001 to 0.02), independent of brain and lesion volumes. Higher total sodium concentration in left frontal middle gyrus was associated with higher disability on Expanded Disability Status Scale (r_s = 0.5, P = 0.005). Increased axonal dispersion was found in normal-appearing white matter, particularly corpus callosum, where there was also axonal degeneration and total sodium accumulation. The association between increased axonal dispersion in the corpus callosum and worse walking performance implies that morphological and metabolic alterations in this structure could mechanistically contribute to disability in multiple sclerosis. As brain volumes were neither altered nor related to disability in patients, our findings suggest that these two advanced MRI techniques are more sensitive at detecting clinically relevant pathology in early multiple sclerosis.

Diagnosis and management of multiple sclerosis: MRI in clinical practice

Background

Recent changes in the understanding and management of multiple sclerosis (MS) have increased the role of MRI in supporting diagnosis and disease monitoring. However, published guidelines on the use of MRI in MS do not translate easily into different clinical settings and considerable variation in practice remains. Here, informed by published guidelines for the use of MRI in MS, we identified a clinically informative MRI protocol applicable in a variety of clinical settings, from district general hospitals to tertiary centres.

Methods

MS specialists geographically representing the UK National Health Service and with expertise in MRI examined existing guidelines on the use of MRI in MS and identification of challenges in their applications in various clinical settings informed the formulation of a feasible MRI protocol.

Results

We identified a minimum set of MRI information, based on clinical relevance, as well as on applicability to various clinical settings. This informed the selection of MRI acquisitions for scanning protocols, differentiated on the basis of their purpose and stage of the disease, and indication of timing for scans. Advice on standardisation of MRI requests and reporting, and proposed timing and frequency of MRI scans were generated.

Conclusions

The proposed MRI protocol can adapt to a range of clinical settings, aiding the impetus towards standardisation of practice and offering an example of research-informed service improvement to support optimisation of resources. Other neurological conditions, where a gap still exists between published guidelines and their clinical implementation, may benefit from this same approach.

Molecular and Metabolic Imaging in Multiple Sclerosis

Multiple sclerosis is a multifactorial disease with heterogeneous pathogenetic mechanisms, which deserve to be studied to evaluate new possible targets for treatments and improve patient management. MR spectroscopy and PET allow assessing in vivo the molecular and metabolic mechanisms underlying the pathogenesis of multiple sclerosis. This article focuses on the relationship between these imaging techniques and the biologic and chemical pathways leading to multiple sclerosis pathology and its clinical features. Future directions of research are also presented.

Functional connectivity changes and their relationship with clinical disability and white matter integrity in patients with relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis

Background and objective:

To define the pathological substrate underlying disability in multiple sclerosis by evaluating the relationship of resting-state functional connectivity with microstructural brain damage, as assessed by diffusion tensor imaging, and clinical impairments.

Methods:

Thirty relapsing–remitting patients and 24 controls underwent 3T-MRI; motor abilities were evaluated by using measures of walking speed, hand dexterity and balance capability, while information processing speed was evaluated by a paced auditory serial addiction task. Independent component analysis and tract-based spatial statistics were applied to RS-fMRI and diffusion tensor imaging data using FSL software. Group differences, after dual regression, and clinical correlations were modelled with General-Linear-Model and corrected for multiple comparisons.

Results:

Patients showed decreased functional connectivity in 5 of 11 resting-state-networks (cerebellar, executive-control, medial-visual, basal ganglia and sensorimotor), changes in inter-network correlations and widespread white matter microstructural damage. In multiple sclerosis, corpus callosum microstructural damage positively correlated with functional connectivity in cerebellar and auditory networks. Moreover, functional connectivity within the medial-visual network inversely correlated with information processing speed. White matter widespread microstructural damage inversely correlated with both the paced auditory serial addiction task and hand dexterity.

Conclusions:

Despite the within-network functional connectivity decrease and the widespread microstructural damage, the inter-network functional connectivity changes suggest a global brain functional rearrangement in multiple sclerosis. The correlation between functional connectivity alterations and callosal damage uncovers a link between functional and structural connectivity. Finally, functional connectivity abnormalities affect information processing speed rather than motor abilities.

[Ultrahigh field MRI in context of neurological diseases]

Ultrahigh field magnetic resonance imaging (UHF-MRI) has recently gained substantial scientific interest. At field strengths of 7 Tesla (T) and higher UHF-MRI provides unprecedented spatial resolution due to an increased signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). The UHF-MRI method has been successfully applied in various neurological disorders. In neuroinflammatory diseases UHF-MRI has already provided a detailed insight into individual pathological disease processes and elucidated differential diagnoses of several disease entities, e.g. multiple sclerosis (MS), neuromyelitis optica (NMO) and Susac's syndrome. The excellent depiction of normal blood vessels, vessel abnormalities and infarct morphology by UHF-MRI can be utilized in vascular diseases. Detailed imaging of the hippocampus in Alzheimer's disease and the substantia nigra in Parkinson's disease as well as sensitivity to iron depositions could be valuable in neurodegenerative diseases. Current UHF-MRI studies still suffer from small sample sizes, selection bias or propensity to image artefacts. In addition, the increasing clinical relevance of 3T-MRI has not been sufficiently appreciated in previous studies. Although UHF-MRI is only available at a small number of medical research centers it could provide a high-end diagnostic tool for healthcare optimization in the foreseeable future. The potential of UHF-MRI still has to be carefully validated by profound prospective research to define its place in future medicine.

The prognostic utility of MRI in clinically isolated syndrome: a literature review

For patients presenting with clinically isolated syndrome, the treating clinician needs to advise the patient on the probability of conversion to clinically definite multiple sclerosis. MR imaging may give useful prognostic information, and there is large body of literature pertaining to the use of MR imaging in assessing patients presenting with clinically isolated syndrome. This literature review evaluates the accuracy of MR imaging in predicting which patients with clinically isolated syndrome will go on to develop long-term disease and/or disability. New and emerging MR imaging technologies and their applicability to patients with clinically isolated syndrome are also considered.

Periventricular lesions help differentiate neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders from multiple sclerosis

Objective. To compare periventricular lesions in multiple sclerosis (MS) and neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders (NMOsd). Materials and Methods. Sagittal and axial fluid attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) sequences of 20 NMOsd and 40 group frequency-matched MS patients were evaluated by two neuroradiologists. On axial FLAIR, periventricular area was characterized as free of lesions/smooth-bordered ("type A") or jagged-bordered ("type B") pattern. On sagittal FLAIR, the images were evaluated for presence of "Dawson's fingers." Results. Type A pattern was observed in 80% of NMOsd patients by Reader 1 and 85% by Reader 2 but only in 5% MS patients by either Reader. Type B was seen in 15% NMOsd patients by Reader 1 and 20% by Reader 2 and in 95% MS patients by either Reader. Dawson's fingers were observed in no NMOsd patients by Reader 1 and 5% by Reader 2. In MS, Dawson's fingers were seen in 92.5% patients by Reader 1 and 77.5% by Reader 2. The differences in periventricular patterns and Dawson's finger detection between NMOsd and MS were highly significant (P < 0.001). Conclusions. Dawson's fingers and "jagged-bordered" periventricular hyperintensities are typical of MS and almost never seen in NMOsd, which suggests a practical method for differentiating the two diseases.

Clinical use of brain volumetry

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based brain volumetry is increasingly being used in the clinical setting to assess brain volume changes from structural MR images in a range of neurologic conditions. Measures of brain volumes have been shown to be valid biomarkers of the clinical state and progression by offering high reliability and robust inferences on the underlying disease-related mechanisms. This review critically examines the different scenarios of the application of MRI-based brain volumetry in neurology: 1) supporting disease diagnosis, 2) understanding mechanisms and tracking clinical progression of disease, and 3) monitoring treatment effect. These aspects will be discussed in a wide range of neurologic conditions, with particular emphasis on Alzheimer's disease and multiple sclerosis.

Retinal ganglion cell and inner plexiform layer thinning in clinically isolated syndrome

BACKGROUND

Axonal and neuronal damage are widely accepted as key events in the disease course of multiple sclerosis. However, it has been unclear to date at which stage in disease evolution neurodegeneration begins and whether neuronal damage can occur even in the absence of acute inflammatory attacks.

OBJECTIVE

To characterize inner retinal layer changes in patients with clinically isolated syndrome (CIS).

METHOD

45 patients with CIS and age- and sex-matched healthy controls were investigated using spectral domain optical coherence tomography. Patients' eyes were stratified into the following categories according to history of optic neuritis (ON): eyes with clinically-diagnosed ON (CIS-ON), eyes with suspected subclinical ON (CIS-SON) as indicated by a visual evoked potential latency of >115 ms and eyes unaffected by ON (CIS-NON).

RESULTS

CIS-NON eyes showed significant reduction of ganglion cell- and inner plexiform layer and a topography similar to that of CIS-ON eyes. Seven eyes were characterized as CIS-SON and likewise showed significant retinal layer thinning. The most pronounced thinning was present in CIS-ON eyes.

CONCLUSION

Our findings indicate that retinal pathology does occur already in CIS. Intraretinal layer segmentation may be an easily applicable, non-invasive method for early detection of retinal pathology in patients unaffected by ON.

Assessing the correlation between grey and white matter damage with motor and cognitive impairment in multiple sclerosis patients

Background

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is characterized by demyelinating and degenerative processes within the central nervous system. Unlike conventional MRI,new advanced imaging techniques improve pathological specificity and better highlight the relationship between anatomical damage and clinical impairment.

Objective

To investigate the relationship between clinical disability and both grey (GM) and white matter (WM) regional damage in MS patients.

Methods

Thirty-six relapsing remitting-MS patients and 25 sex- and age-matched controls were enrolled. All patients were clinically evaluated by the Expanded Disability Status Scale and the Multiple Sclerosis Functional Composite (MSFC) scale, which includes the 9-hole peg test (9HPT), the timed 25-feet walking test (T25FW) and the paced auditory serial addition test (PASAT). All subjects were imaged by a 3.0 T scanner: dual-echo fast spin-echo, 3DT1-weighted and diffusion-tensor imaging (DTI) sequences were acquired. Voxel-based morphometry (VBM) and tract-based spatial statistics (TBSS) analyses were run for regional GM and WM assessment, respectively. T2 lesion volumes were also calculated, by using a semi-automated technique.

Results

Brain volumetric assessment of GM and DTI measures revealed significant differences between patients and controls. In patients, different measures of WM damage correlated each-other (p<0.0001), whereas none of them correlated with GM volume. In patients, focal GM atrophy and widespread WM damage significantly correlated with clinical measures. In particular, VBM analysis revealed a significant correlation (p<0.05) between GM volume and 9HPT in cerebellum and between GM volume and PASAT in orbito-frontal cortex. TBSS showed significant correlations between DTI metrics with 9HPT and PASAT scores in many WM bundles (p<0.05), including corpus callosum, internal capsule, posterior thalamic radiations, cerebral peduncles.

Conclusions

Selective GM atrophy and widespread WM tracts damage are associated with functional impairment of upper-limb motion and cognition. The combined analysis of volumetric and DTI data may help to better understand structural alterations underlying physical and cognitive dysfunction in MS.

Isoprostanes in clinically isolated syndrome and early multiple sclerosis as biomarkers of tissue damage and predictors of clinical course

BACKGROUND

Isoprostanes (IsoP) are sensitive biomarkers of oxidative stress. Their cerebrospinal-fluid (CSF) level is increased in several neurological conditions, including multiple sclerosis (MS). In particular, in relapsing-remitting MS, IsoP have been proposed as an index of neurodegenerative processes. The mechanisms leading to neuroaxonal damage in MS are not fully understood but oxidative mechanisms play a substantial role. Although axonal loss is present in MS patients since their first clinical symptoms, IsoP levels at this early stage have not been evaluated yet.

OBJECTIVES

The objectives of this study were (a) to assess IsoP levels in CSF of patients with a first clinical attack suggestive of MS; (b) to correlate IsoP levels with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) measures of brain damage and (c) to assess IsoP value in predicting disease clinical evolution.

METHODS

Thirty-nine patients with a first clinical attack suggestive of MS underwent neurological examination, lumbar puncture with IsoP levels quantification and conventional/spectroscopic-MRI. Patients were followed up for 24 months.

RESULTS

CSF IsoP levels were higher in patients than controls (mean ± standard deviation (SD) 123.4 ± 185.8 vs 4.5 ± 2.9 pg/ml; p<0.0001) and inversely correlated to normalized brain volume (p=0.04) and N-acetylaspartate/choline (NAA/Cho) (p=0.01). The risk of experiencing clinical relapses differed according to IsoP level: subjects with levels higher than 95 pg/ml (a cut-off value resulting from ROC analysis) were more likely to relapse than patients with levels equal or lower than 95 pg/ml (59% vs 27% respectively; p=0.03).

CONCLUSIONS

CSF IsoP might be useful biomarkers of tissue damage in MS with a predictive value of disease course.

Periventricular venous density in multiple sclerosis is inversely associated with T2 lesion count: a 7 Tesla MRI study

Background:

Damage to venules in multiple sclerosis was first described decades ago. Today, ultrahigh magnetic field strength T2*-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) techniques depict very small cerebral veins in vivo with great anatomical detail.

Objective:

We aimed to investigate alterations of periventricular small blood vessel appearance in relation to T2 lesion count and distribution in multiple sclerosis and clinically isolated syndrome in comparison with healthy control subjects at 7 Tesla MRI.

Methods:

We investigated 38 patients (including 16 with early multiple sclerosis and seven with clinically isolated syndrome) and 22 matched healthy controls at 7 Tesla. The protocol included T2*-weighted Fast Low Angle Shot, and T2-weighted Turbo Inversion Recovery Magnitude sequences. We quantified periventricular venous density by a novel region-of-interest-based algorithm, expressing the ratio of ‘veins per region-of-interest’ as well as of ‘periventricular vascular area’.

Results:

Our study revealed significantly decreased venous density in multiple sclerosis patients compared with healthy controls. Venous alterations were already detectable in clinically isolated syndrome and early multiple sclerosis, although to a smaller extent. Venous density correlated inversely with periventricular and whole-brain T2 lesion count. Furthermore, we found no indication for cerebral venous congestion in multiple sclerosis.

Conclusion:

High spatially resolving anatomical T2*-weighted MRI revealed vascular alterations in early stages of multiple sclerosis, presumably as a part of widespread haemodynamic and metabolic alterations.

The role of mitochondria in axonal degeneration and tissue repair in MS

Axonal injury is a key feature of multiple sclerosis (MS) pathology and is currently seen as the main correlate for permanent clinical disability. Although little is known about the pathogenetic mechanisms that drive axonal damage and loss, there is accumulating evidence highlighting the central role of mitochondrial dysfunction in axonal degeneration and associated neurodegeneration. The aim of this topical review is to provide a concise overview on the involvement of mitochondrial dysfunction in axonal damage and destruction in MS. Hereto, we will discuss putative pathological mechanisms leading to mitochondrial dysfunction and recent imaging studies performed in vivo in patients with MS. Moreover, we will focus on molecular mechanisms and novel imaging studies that address the role of mitochondrial metabolism in tissue repair. Finally, we will briefly review therapeutic strategies aimed at improving mitochondrial metabolism and function under neuroinflammatory conditions.