An enrichment strategy for clinical trials in SPMS

Threshold definitions for significant change on the timed 25-foot walk and nine-hole peg test in primary progressive multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The timed 25-foot walk (T25FW) and nine-hole peg test (NHPT) exhibit random variability in the short term. A threshold of ≥20% change from baseline has been used to indicate true disability change, but other threshold definitions may be better suited to exclude false and include true change events. The aim of this study was to use patient-level original trial data to investigate the short-term variation in T25FW and NHPT, and to compare its extent with disability change at 12-month follow-up in people with primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS).

METHODS

We used original patient-level data from PROMISE, a large PPMS trial. In this trial, three separate T25FW and NHPT measurements were performed 1 week apart during screening. We used these repeated measures to describe the extent of short-term variation. We used binary logistic regression models to investigate the association between screening characteristics and unacceptable short-term variation.

RESULTS

The traditional 20% threshold excluded a reasonable number of false change events, while also yielding a large number of change events at follow-up. Increasing index values on the T25FW and NHPT were associated with higher short-term variation.

CONCLUSIONS

The traditional ≥20% change threshold for the T25FW and NHPT represents a reasonable compromise between reducing the number of false change events and achieving the largest number of change events in people with PPMS. Our analyses inform the design of clinical trials in PPMS.

Cerebellar pathology and disability worsening in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: A retrospective analysis from the CombiRx trial

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Cerebellar damage is a valuable predictor of disability, particularly in progressive multiple sclerosis. It is not clear if it could be an equally useful predictor of motor disability worsening in the relapsing-remitting phenotype.

AIM

We aimed to determine whether cerebellar damage is an equally useful predictor of motor disability worsening in the relapsing-remitting phenotype.

METHODS

Cerebellar lesion loads and volumes were estimated using baseline magnetic resonance imaging from the CombiRx trial (n = 838). The relationship between cerebellar damage and time to disability worsening (confirmed disability progression [CDP], timed 25-foot walk test [T25FWT] score worsening, nine-hole peg test [9HPT] score worsening) was tested in stagewise and stepwise Cox proportional hazards models, accounting for demographics and supratentorial damage.

RESULTS

Shorter time to 9HPT score worsening was associated with higher baseline Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score (hazard ratio [HR] 1.408, p = 0.0042) and higher volume of supratentorial and cerebellar T2 lesions (HR 1.005 p = 0.0196 and HR 2.211, p = 0.0002, respectively). Shorter time to T25FWT score worsening was associated with higher baseline EDSS (HR 1.232, p = 0.0006). Shorter time to CDP was associated with older age (HR 1.026, p = 0.0010), lower baseline EDSS score (HR 0.428, p < 0.0001) and higher volume of supratentorial T2 lesions (HR 1.024, p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

Among the explored outcomes, single time-point evaluation of cerebellar damage only allows the prediction of manual dexterity worsening. In clinical studies the selection of imaging biomarkers should be informed by the outcome of interest.