Using an epidemiological model to investigate unwarranted variation: the case of ventilation tubes for otitis media with effusion in England

Prediction of hospital visits for the general inpatient care using floating catchment area methods: a reconceptualization of spatial accessibility

Background

The adequate allocation of inpatient care resources requires assumptions about the need for health care and how this need will be met. However, in current practice, these assumptions are often based on outdated methods (e.g. Hill-Burton Formula). This study evaluated floating catchment area (FCA) methods, which have been applied as measures of spatial accessibility, focusing on their ability to predict the need for health care in the inpatient sector in Germany.

Methods

We tested three FCA methods (enhanced (E2SFCA), modified (M2SFCA) and integrated (iFCA)) for their accuracy in predicting hospital visits regarding six medical diagnoses (atrial flutter/fibrillation, heart failure, femoral fracture, gonarthrosis, stroke, and epilepsy) on national level in Germany. We further used the closest provider approach for benchmark purposes. The predicted visits were compared with the actual visits for all six diagnoses using a correlation analysis and a maximum error from the actual visits of ± 5%, ± 10% and ± 15%.

Results

The analysis of 229 million distances between hospitals and population locations revealed a high and significant correlation of predicted with actual visits for all three FCA methods across all six diagnoses up to ρ = 0.79 (p < 0.001). Overall, all FCA methods showed a substantially higher correlation with actual hospital visits compared to the closest provider approach (up to ρ = 0.51; p < 0.001). Allowing a 5% error of the absolute values, the analysis revealed up to 13.4% correctly predicted hospital visits using the FCA methods (15% error: up to 32.5% correctly predicted hospital). Finally, the potential of the FCA methods could be revealed by using the actual hospital visits as the measure of hospital attractiveness, which returned very strong correlations with the actual hospital visits up to ρ = 0.99 (p < 0.001).

Conclusion

We were able to demonstrate the impact of FCA measures regarding the prediction of hospital visits in non-emergency settings, and their superiority over commonly used methods (i.e. closest provider). However, hospital beds were inadequate as the measure of hospital attractiveness resulting in low accuracy of predicted hospital visits. More reliable measures must be integrated within the proposed methods. Still, this study strengthens the possibilities of FCA methods in health care planning beyond their original application in measuring spatial accessibility.

Decision making tools for managing waiting times and treatment rates in elective surgery

Background

Waiting times for elective treatments, including elective surgery, are a source of public concern and therefore are on policy makers’ agenda. The long waiting times have often been tackled through the allocation of additional resources, in an attempt to reduce them, but results are not straightforward. At the same time, researchers have reported wide geographical variations in the provision of elective care not driven by patient needs or preferences but by other factors.

The paper analyses the relationship between waiting times and treatment rates for nine high-volume elective surgical procedures in order to support decision making regarding the availability of these services for the citizens. Using the framework already proposed for the diagnostic services, we identify different patterns that can be followed to align the supply with patient needs in the Italian context.

Methods

After measuring the waiting times and the treatment rates for nine procedures in the 34 districts in Tuscany, we performed correlation analyses. Then, we plotted the results in a matrix cross-checking waiting times and rates. By doing so, we identified four different contexts that require a second step analysis to tackle unwarranted geographical variations and ensure timely care to patients. Finally, for each district and elective surgical procedure, we measured the economic impact of the different treatment rates in order to evaluate whether there are any supply criticalities and eventually some room for maneuver. We also included active and passive mobility of patients.

Results

The results show a high degree of variation both in treatment rates and waiting times, especially for the orthopaedic procedures: knee replacement, knee arthroscopy and hip replacement. The analysis performed for the nine interventions shows that the 34 districts are in varying positions in the waiting time-treatment rate matrix, suggesting that there is no straightforward relationship between rates and waiting times. Each combination in the matrix may have different determinants that require healthcare managers to adopt diversified strategies. The decision making process needs to be supported by a two-level analysis: the first one to put in place the matrix that cross-checks waiting times and treatment rates, the second one to analyse the characteristics of each quadrant and the improvement actions that can be proposed.

Conclusions

In Italy, waiting times in elective surgical services are a main policy issue with a relevant geographical variation. Our analysis reveals that this variation is due to multiple elements. In order to avoid simplistic approaches that do not solve the problem but often lead to increased expenditure, policy makers and healthcare managers should follow a two-step strategy firstly identifying the type of context and secondly analysing the impact of elements such as resource productivity, resource availability, patients’ preferences and care appropriateness. Only in some cases it is required to increase the service supply.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12913-019-4199-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Variation in Utilization and Need for Tympanostomy Tubes across England and New England

OBJECTIVES

To compare rates of typmanostomy tube insertions for otitis media with effusion with estimates of need in 2 countries.

STUDY DESIGN

This cross-sectional analysis used all-payer claims to calculate rates of tympanostomy tube insertions for insured children ages 2-8 years (2007-2010) across pediatric surgical areas (PSA) for Northern New England (NNE; Maine, Vermont, and New Hampshire) and the English National Health Service Primary Care Trusts (PCT). Rates were compared with expected rates estimated using a Monte Carlo simulation model that integrates clinical guidelines and published probabilities of the incidence and course of otitis media with effusion.

RESULTS

Observed rates of tympanostomy tube placement varied >30-fold across English PCT (N = 150) and >3-fold across NNE PSA (N = 30). At a 25 dB hearing threshold, the overall difference in observed to expected tympanostomy tubes provided was -3.41 per 1000 child-years in England and -0.01 per 1000 child-years in NNE. Observed incidence of insertion was less than expected in 143 of 151 PCT, and was higher than expected in one-half of the PSA. Using a 20 dB hearing threshold, there were fewer tube insertions than expected in all but 2 England and 7 NNE areas. There was an inverse relationship between estimated need and observed tube insertion rates.

CONCLUSIONS

Regional variations in observed tympanostomy tube insertion rates are unlikely to be due to differences in need and suggest overall underuse in England and both overuse and underuse in NNE.