Does misclassification of former tobacco smokers explain the 'smoker's paradox' in the risk of COVID-19? Insights from the Stockholm Public Health Cohort

The Association Between Tobacco Use and Risk of COVID-19 Infection and Clinical Outcomes in Sweden: A Population-Based Study

Background: The association between tobacco use and COVID-19 is controversial. During the early course of the pandemic, limited testing prevented studying a wide spectrum of clinical manifestations. Objective: To examine the potential causal association between tobacco use and COVID-19 during the second wave (1 October 2020-30 June 2021) of the pandemic in Stockholm, Sweden. Methods: A population-based cohort study was conducted in the Stockholm region of Sweden, with information on tobacco use collected prior to the pandemic. Adjusted relative risks (RR) of COVID-19 and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated, contrasting current smokers and snus users to non-users of tobacco. Results: Compared with non-users of tobacco, current smokers had a lower risk of COVID-19 (RR 0.78, 95% CI = 0.75-0.81) and of hospitalisation for the disease. Current snus users had a higher risk of COVID-19. Heavy smokers and snus users had longer hospital stays than non-users of tobacco. Conclusion: Tobacco use may have a different impact on the risk of being infected with SARS-CoV-2 and the risk of developing severe clinical manifestations. Further research is needed to determine the underlying mechanisms.