Practical development and operationalization of a 12-hour hospital census prediction algorithm

Hospital census prediction has well-described implications for efficient hospital resource utilization, and recent issues with hospital crowding due to CoVID-19 have emphasized the importance of this task. Our team has been leading an institutional effort to develop machine-learning models that can predict hospital census 12 hours into the future. We describe our efforts at developing accurate empirical models for this task. Ultimately, with limited resources and time, we were able to develop simple yet useful models for 12-hour census prediction and design a dashboard application to display this output to our hospital’s decision-makers. Specifically, we found that linear models with ElasticNet regularization performed well for this task with relative 95% error of +/− 3.4% and that this work could be completed in approximately 7 months.

Quantifying the Impact of Resuscitation-Team Activation in Hospital Emergency Departments

Hospital emergency department (ED) operations are affected when critically ill or injured patients arrive. Such events often lead to the initiation of specific protocols, referred to as Resuscitation-team Activation (RA), in the ED of Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN where this study was conducted. RA events lead to the diversion of resources from other patients in the ED to provide care to critically ill patients; therefore, it has an impact on the entire ED system. This paper presents a data-driven and flexible statistical learning model to quantify the impact of RA on the ED. The model learns the pattern of operations in the ED from historical patient arrival and departure timestamps and quantifies the impact of RA by measuring the deviation of the departure of patients during RA from normal processes. The proposed method significantly outperforms baseline methods based on measuring the average time patients spend in the ED.