Blood cell differential count discretisation modelling to predict survival in adults reporting to the emergency room: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To assess the survival predictivity of baseline blood cell differential count (BCDC), discretised according to two different methods, in adults visiting an emergency room (ER) for illness or trauma over 1 year.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study of hospital records.

SETTING

Tertiary care public hospital in northern Italy.

PARTICIPANTS

11 052 patients aged >18 years, consecutively admitted to the ER in 1 year, and for whom BCDC collection was indicated by ER medical staff at first presentation.

PRIMARY OUTCOME

Survival was the referral outcome for explorative model development. Automated BCDC analysis at baseline assessed haemoglobin, mean cell volume (MCV), red cell distribution width (RDW), platelet distribution width (PDW), platelet haematocrit (PCT), absolute red blood cells, white blood cells, neutrophils, lymphocytes, monocytes, eosinophils, basophils and platelets. Discretisation cut-offs were defined by benchmark and tailored methods. Benchmark cut-offs were stated based on laboratory reference values (Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute). Tailored cut-offs for linear, sigmoid-shaped and U-shaped distributed variables were discretised by maximally selected rank statistics and by optimal-equal HR, respectively. Explanatory variables (age, gender, ER admission during SARS-CoV2 surges and in-hospital admission) were analysed using Cox multivariable regression. Receiver operating curves were drawn by summing the Cox-significant variables for each method.

RESULTS

Of 11 052 patients (median age 67 years, IQR 51-81, 48% female), 59% (n=6489) were discharged and 41% (n=4563) were admitted to the hospital. After a 306-day median follow-up (IQR 208-417 days), 9455 (86%) patients were alive and 1597 (14%) deceased. Increased HRs were associated with age >73 years (HR=4.6, 95% CI=4.0 to 5.2), in-hospital admission (HR=2.2, 95% CI=1.9 to 2.4), ER admission during SARS-CoV2 surges (Wave I: HR=1.7, 95% CI=1.5 to 1.9; Wave II: HR=1.2, 95% CI=1.0 to 1.3). Gender, haemoglobin, MCV, RDW, PDW, neutrophils, lymphocytes and eosinophil counts were significant overall. Benchmark-BCDC model included basophils and platelet count (area under the ROC (AUROC) 0.74). Tailored-BCDC model included monocyte counts and PCT (AUROC 0.79).

CONCLUSIONS

Baseline discretised BCDC provides meaningful insight regarding ER patients' survival.

The immune modifying effects of chemotherapy and advances in chemo-immunotherapy

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have transformed the treatment paradigm for several malignancies. While the use of single-agent or combined ICIs has achieved acceptable disease control rates in a variety of solid tumors, such approaches have yet to show substantial therapeutic efficacy in select difficult-to-treat cancer types. Recently, select chemotherapy regimens are emerging as extensive modifiers of the tumor microenvironment, leading to the reprogramming of local immune responses. Accordingly, data is now emerging to suggest that certain anti-neoplastic agents modulate various immune cell processes, most notably the cross-presentation of tumor antigens, leukocyte trafficking, and cytokine biosynthesis. As such, the combination of ICIs and cytotoxic chemotherapy are beginning to show promise in many cancers that have long been considered poorly responsive to ICI-based immunotherapy. Here, we discuss past and present attempts to advance chemo-immunotherapy in these difficult-to-treat cancer histologies, mechanisms through which select chemotherapies modify tumor immunogenicity, as well as important considerations when designing such approaches to maximize efficacy and improve therapeutic response rates.

Circulating Immature and Mature Dendritic Cells in Relation to Lymphocyte Subsets in Patients with Gastrointestinal Tract Cancer

Cancer-related deficiency in circulating dendritic cells (DC), whose important anticancer role is well established, has been proven to be associated with lymphocytopenia. This study was performed to evaluate which lymphocyte subset is most markedly related to the failure of the DC system. The study included 30 patients with gastrointestinal tract cancer, 10 of whom had distant organ metastases. Immature and mature DCs were measured by FACS and monoclonal antibodies against CD123 and CD11c antigens, respectively. Low levels of immature and mature DCs were observed in 63% and 43% of patients, respectively. Patients with low levels of circulating mature DCs had significantly lower values of T lymphocytes, T helper lymphocytes and NK cells than those with normal mature DC levels. In contrast, no significant difference was seen between patients with normal or abnormally low values of immature DCs. Conversely, patients with a decreased number of T lymphocytes, T helper lymphocytes and NK cells showed significantly lower values of circulating mature DCs than those with lymphocyte subsets within the normal range, whereas no difference was seen in immature DC amounts. This study suggests that only mature DC deficiency may be associated with important lymphocyte subset alterations in cancer patients, whereas deficiency in immature DCs does not seem to be related to other immune cell disorders.

Changes in Circulating VEGF Levels in Relation to Clinical Response during Chemotherapy for Metastatic Cancer

Abnormally high blood levels of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) appear to be associated with a poor prognosis in advanced cancer, probably as a consequence of its angiogenic and immunosuppressive effects. The prognostic significance of changes in VEGF secretion during cancer chemotherapy is still unknown. This study aimed to investigate the relation between VEGF variations and therapeutic results during chemotherapy in advanced malignancies. The study included 90 metastatic cancer patients, 59 with non-small cell lung cancer and 31 with colorectal carcinoma. Chemotherapy consisted of cisplatin plus etoposide for NSCLC and camptothecin for colorectal cancer. Abnormally high (>2 SD with respect to values in healthy controls) pretreatment VEGF levels were found in 38/90 (42%) patients. The percentage of non-progressive disease in response to chemotherapy was significantly higher in patients with normal levels of VEGF prior to therapy than in those with elevated pretreatment values of VEGF (10/32 vs 4/27; p<0.05). Moreover, the percentage of VEGF level normalization during chemotherapy was significantly higher in patients with objective tumor response or stable disease than in progressing patients (10/18 vs 0/20; p<0.001). Finally, among patients with tumor response or disease stabilization, the one-year survival rate was significantly higher in patients with chemotherapy-induced normalization of VEGF than in those with persistently high VEGF blood levels (9/10 vs 3/8; p<0.05). These results suggest that changes in VEGF levels during chemotherapy may represent a useful biomarker to predict the effect of chemotherapy in terms of tumor response and survival in patients with metastatic solid neoplasms.

Efficacy of Cancer Chemotherapy in Relation to the Pretreatment Number of Lymphocytes in Patients with Metastatic Solid Tumors

The evidence of lymphocytopenia has been demonstrated to predict a poor prognosis in terms of survival in advanced cancer patients. This finding is not surprising because of the fundamental role of lymphocytes in mediating tumor cell destruction. Despite the importance of lymphocytes in the pathogenesis of cancer, there are only few data about the profile and the function of lymphocytes during the various antitumor therapies, and in particular the relation between lymphocyte pretreatment number and response to chemotherapy remains to be established. The present study was performed to evaluate whether the evidence of lymphocytopenia before the onset of treatment may influence the efficacy of chemotherapy in metastatic cancer patients affected by the most frequent tumor types. The study included 183 patients (lung cancer: 89; colorectal cancer: 63; breast cancer: 31), 95 of whom had been previously treated with chemotherapy. The chemotherapeutic regimens consisted of oxaliplatin plus 5-fluorouracil and folates in untreated colorectal cancer, weekly irinotecan in pretreated colorectal cancer, cisplatin plus gemcitabine or etoposide in untreated lung cancer, weekly vinorelbine in pretreated lung cancer, and taxotere in breast cancer patients who had been previously treated with anthracyclines. Lymphocyte count was considered to be abnormally low for values below 1500/mm3. Lymphocytopenia was found in 79/183 (43%) patients, without any significant differences in relation to tumor histology. A complete response (CR) was achieved in 6/104 patients with a normal lymphocyte count and in none of the 79 lymphocytopenic patients. A partial response (PR) was obtained in 39 patients with a normal lymphocyte count and in only eight patients with a low lymphocyte count prior to therapy. Therefore, irrespective of the type of chemotherapy, the objective tumor response rate (CR + PR) in lymphocytopenic patients was significantly lower than in patients with normal pretreatment lymphocyte counts (8/79 vs 45/104; p<0. 001). This study shows that the evidence of lymphocytopenia prior to chemotherapy is associated with a lower efficacy of treatment in terms of objective tumor regression rates in patients with metastatic solid tumors, and suggests that the action of chemotherapy may depend at least in part on an interaction with the antitumor immunity. Pretreatment lymphocyte count may represent a new, simple biological marker to be taken into consideration by oncologists in the chemotherapeutic treatment of metastatic cancer.

Pre-treatment lymphopenia as a prognostic biomarker in colorectal cancer patients receiving chemotherapy

BACKGROUND

Lymphopenia is a predictor of the efficacy and hematological toxicity of chemotherapy in various advanced cancers. There is little data about this relationship in colorectal cancer. In this retrospective study, the influence of pretreatment lymphopenia on hematological toxicity and the efficacy of chemotherapy was investigated in colorectal cancer patients.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In total, 260 patients were included in the study. Correlations between pre-treatment lymphopenia (lymphocyte count < 1,000/μl) and the occurrence of hematological toxicity and efficacy of first-line palliative chemotherapy were investigated.

RESULTS

Lymphopenia was found in 49/260 (19%) patients. Ten of these patients with lymphopenia (20.4%) experienced severe hematological toxicity compared with 17 of the remaining 211 (8%) patients (P = 0.01). Lymphopenia was identified as an independent factor for hematological toxicity. Among patients who received palliative chemotherapy, the objective response rate was significantly lower in lymphopenic patients than in the other patients (12.5% vs. 40.2%; P = 0.004). Lymphopenia was strongly associated with shorter progression-free survival (median 4 vs. 7 months; P = 0.033) and shorter overall survival (median 16 vs. 24 months, P = 0.024). Multivariate analysis revealed that lymphopenia had an independent effect on survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings show that lymphopenia is an independent predictive factor for both hematological toxicity and efficacy of chemotherapy in colorectal cancer. Pre-treatment lymphocyte count may represent a simple and new predictive biomarker of chemotherapy effects in colorectal cancer patients.