Khorana score and thromboembolic risk in stage II-III colorectal cancer patients: a post hoc analysis from the adjuvant TOSCA trial

The association of tumor-expressed REG4, SPINK4 and alpha-1 antitrypsin with cancer-associated thrombosis in colorectal cancer

Novel biomarkers are needed to improve current imperfect risk prediction models for cancer-associated thrombosis (CAT). We recently identified an RNA-sequencing profile that associates with CAT in colorectal cancer (CRC) patients, with REG4, SPINK4, and SERPINA1 as the top-3 upregulated genes at mRNA level. In the current study, we investigated whether protein expression of REG4, SPINK4 and alpha-1 antitrypsin (A1AT, encoded by SERPINA1) in the tumor associated with CAT in an independent cohort of CRC patients. From 418 patients with resected CRC, 18 patients who developed CAT were age, sex, and tumor stage-matched to 18 CRC patients without CAT. Protein expression was detected by immunohistochemical staining and scored blindly by assessing the H-score (percentage positive cells*scoring intensity). The association with CAT was assessed by means of logistic regression, using patients with an H-score below 33 as reference group. The odds ratios (ORs) for developing CAT for patients with A1AThigh, REG4high, SPINK4high tumors were 3.5 (95%CI 0.8-14.5), 2.0 (95%CI 0.5-7.6) and 2.0 (95%CI 0.5-7.4) when compared to A1ATlow, REG4low, SPINK4low, respectively. The OR was increased to 24.0 (95%CI 1.1-505.1) when two proteins were combined (A1AThigh/REG4high). This nested case-control study shows that combined protein expression of A1AT and REG4 associate with CAT in patients with colorectal cancer. Therefore, REG4/A1AT are potential biomarkers to improve the identification of patients with CRC who may benefit from thromboprophylaxis.

The Role of KRAS Mutation in Colorectal Cancer-Associated Thrombosis

Venous thromboembolic events (VTE) are common in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) and represent a significant contributor to morbidity and mortality. Risk stratification is paramount in deciding the initiation of thromboprophylaxis and is calculated using scores that include tumor location, laboratory values, patient clinical characteristics, and tumor burden. Commonly used risk scores do not include the presence of molecular aberrations as a variable. This retrospective study aims to confirm the link between KRAS-activating mutations and the development of VTE in CRC. A total of 166 patients were included in this study. They were split into two cohorts based on KRAS mutational status. We evaluated the frequency and mean time to VTE development stratified by the presence of KRAS mutations. Patients with mutant KRAS had an odds ratio (OR) of 2.758 for VTE compared to KRAS wild-type patients, with an increased risk of thrombosis being maintained in KRAS mutant patients even after adjusting for other known VTE risk factors. Taking into account the results of this study, KRAS mutation represents an independent risk factor for VTE.

Risk-Directed Ambulatory Thromboprophylaxis in Lung and Gastrointestinal Cancers: The TARGET-TP Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

Thromboprophylaxis for individuals receiving systemic anticancer therapies has proven to be effective. Potential to maximize benefits relies on improved risk-directed strategies, but existing risk models underperform in cohorts with lung and gastrointestinal cancers.

Objective

To assess clinical benefits and safety of biomarker-driven thromboprophylaxis and to externally validate a biomarker thrombosis risk assessment model for individuals with lung and gastrointestinal cancers.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This open-label, phase 3 randomized clinical trial (Targeted Thromboprophylaxis in Ambulatory Patients Receiving Anticancer Therapies [TARGET-TP]) conducted from June 2018 to July 2021 (with 6-month primary follow-up) included adults aged 18 years or older commencing systemic anticancer therapies for lung or gastrointestinal cancers at 1 metropolitan and 4 regional hospitals in Australia. Thromboembolism risk assessment based on fibrinogen and d-dimer levels stratified individuals into low-risk (observation) and high-risk (randomized) cohorts.

Interventions

High-risk patients were randomized 1:1 to receive enoxaparin, 40 mg, subcutaneously daily for 90 days (extending up to 180 days according to ongoing risk) or no thromboprophylaxis (control).

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was objectively confirmed thromboembolism at 180 days. Key secondary outcomes included bleeding, survival, and risk model validation.

Results

Of 782 eligible adults, 328 (42%) were enrolled in the trial (median age, 65 years [range, 30-88 years]; 176 male [54%]). Of these participants, 201 (61%) had gastrointestinal cancer, 127 (39%) had lung cancer, and 132 (40%) had metastatic disease; 200 (61%) were high risk (100 in each group), and 128 (39%) were low risk. In the high-risk cohort, thromboembolism occurred in 8 individuals randomized to enoxaparin (8%) and 23 control individuals (23%) (hazard ratio [HR], 0.31; 95% CI, 0.15-0.70; P = .005; number needed to treat, 6.7). Thromboembolism occurred in 10 low-risk individuals (8%) (high-risk control vs low risk: HR, 3.33; 95% CI, 1.58-6.99; P = .002). Risk model sensitivity was 70%, and specificity was 61%. The rate of major bleeding was low, occurring in 1 participant randomized to enoxaparin (1%), 2 in the high-risk control group (2%), and 3 in the low-risk group (2%) (P = .88). Six-month mortality was 13% in the enoxaparin group vs 26% in the high-risk control group (HR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.24-0.93; P = .03) and 7% in the low-risk group (vs high-risk control: HR, 4.71; 95% CI, 2.13-10.42; P < .001).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this randomized clinical trial of individuals with lung and gastrointestinal cancers who were stratified by risk score according to thrombosis risk, risk-directed thromboprophylaxis reduced thromboembolism with a desirable number needed to treat, without safety concerns, and with reduced mortality. Individuals at low risk avoided unnecessary intervention. The findings suggest that biomarker-driven, risk-directed primary thromboprophylaxis is an appropriate approach in this population.

Trial Registration

ANZCTR Identifier: ACTRN12618000811202.

The Kagoshima-DVT Score Is a Useful Predictive Model for Cancer-Associated Thrombosis in Patients With Gastrointestinal Cancer

Background: Cancer-associated thrombosis (CAT) is a common complication of cancer and has received increasing attention; the Khorana Risk Score (KRS) is a recommended but insufficient risk assessment model for CAT. We propose a novel Kagoshima-DVT score (KDS) to predict preoperative deep vein thrombosis (DVT). This scoring method scores D-dimer ≥1.5 μg/mL, age ≥60 years, female sex, ongoing glucocorticoids, cancer with high risk of DVT, and prolonged immobility. The purpose of this study was to compare the performance of the KDS and KRS in predicting CAT in patients with gastrointestinal cancer. Methods and Results: In all, 250 patients without a history of thrombosis who received their first chemotherapy for gastrointestinal cancer were divided into low- (48.0%), intermediate- (38.8%), and high-risk (13.2%) groups for CAT development by the KDS. The patients' median age was 67 years and 63.2% were men. In all, 61 (27.1%) patients developed CAT (17.6%, 35.3%, and 36.4% of patients in the low-, intermediate, and high-risk groups, respectively; log-rank P=0.006). The area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve for CAT occurrence within 1 year was larger for the KDS than KRS (0.653 vs. 0.494). Conclusions: A high KDS at the start of first chemotherapy is a risk indicator for CAT development during chemotherapy. Moreover, the KDS is more useful than the KRS in predicting CAT risk.

Development and Validation of a Prediction Model for Venous Thrombus Embolism (VTE) in Patients With Colorectal Cancer

Cancer patients are at high risk of developing venous thromboembolism (VTE). The risk of VTE could be mitigated with the administration of prophylactic anticoagulants. Therefore, risk assessment models would be a useful tool in order to identify those patients who are at higher risk and will be benefited more by prophylactic anticoagulants. This study retrospectively examined 528 newly diagnosed colorectal cancer patients from January 2019 to January 2021. Specified logistic regression models were employed to screen the factors and establish prediction tools based on nomograms according to the final included variables. Discrimination, calibration, and clinical applicability were used to assess the performance of screening tools. In addition, internal verifications were conducted through 10-fold cross-verification, leave-one-out cross-validation, and Bootstrap verification. Four risk factors, closely related to the occurrence of VTE in colorectal cancer patients, were identified after univariate and multivariate logistic regression, including age, body mass index, activated partial thromboplastin time, and D-Dimer value. Besides, the risk assessment model named ABAD was built on the basis, displaying good discriminations and calibrations. The area under the curve was 0.705 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.644 to 0.766). According to Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, a good agreement between the predicted and observed VTE events in patients with newly-diagnosed gastrointestinal cancer was observed for χ2 = 6.864, P = .551. Internal validation was applied with a C-index of 0.669 in the 10-fold cross-verification, 0.658 in the leave-one-out cross verification and 0.684 in the bootstrap verification. We developed a prediction model called ABAD for newly diagnosed colorectal cancer patients, which can be used to predict the risk of VTE. After evaluation and internal verification, we believe that ABAD exhibited high predictive performance and availability and could be recommended.

Evaluating the Khorana risk score of gastrointestinal cancer patients during initial chemotherapy as a predictor of patient mortality: A retrospective study

BACKGROUND

The Khorana risk score (KRS) has been recommended for predicting the incidence of cancer-associated thrombosis (CAT). However, it has been reported KRS was not useful in predicting CAT, but rather in predicting death by setting high scores for the primary tumor site or a low prevalence of severe obesity.

METHODS

A total of 260 consecutive patients with no history of thrombosis and who started initial chemotherapy for gastrointestinal cancer from January 2017 to December 2018 at our hospital were divided into three groups according to KRS; they were observed until December 2019 [122 patients (46.9%) in the low-risk group, 114 patients (43.8%) in the intermediate-risk group, and 24 patients (9.2%) in the high-risk group]. The incidence of CAT and all-cause death were compared among the three groups.

RESULTS

The median age of the patients was 67 years; 63.5% were men. CAT was observed in 61 patients (26.1%); 84 patients (37.9%) died during the observation period. The incidence rate of CAT was similar among the three groups (log-rank p = 0.4); but all-cause death showed a significant difference among the three groups (high-risk group: 58.2%, intermediate-risk group: 44.6%, low-risk group: 27.5%, log-rank p = 0.002). In the multivariate analysis, the high-risk KRS group remained at increased risk for all-cause death (HR, 2.83; 95% CI, 1.37-5.83; p = 0.005), but not with CAT.

CONCLUSIONS

The KRS at the start of chemotherapy for gastrointestinal cancer is not effective in predicting CAT, but it is effective in predicting prognosis in patients with gastrointestinal cancer.