Accuracy of 2012 International Consensus Guidelines for the prediction of malignancy of branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas

Endoscopic ultrasound is useful for the risk stratification of mucinous pancreatic cystic lesions: A long-term prospective study

OBJECTIVES

The aims of this prospective observational study were to test worrisome features on endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration (EUS-FNA) as a stratification tool in patients with mucinous pancreatic cystic lesions (PCLs), and to assess these patients' long-term risk of adenocarcinoma and mortality.

METHODS

Patients with suspected PCLs on cross-sectional imaging who underwent EUS-FNA at Sahlgrenska University Hospital between February 2007 and February 2018 were consecutively enrolled. The main inclusion criterion was the final diagnosis of a mucinous PCL. The results from EUS-FNA were analyzed in the context of outcome gathered from medical records of follow-up until February 2021.

RESULTS

Of 334 patients undergoing EUS-FNA, 171 (51 %) had a final diagnosis of a mucinous PCL. 29/171 (17 %) patients were diagnosed with HGD or adenocarcinoma <6 months after EUS-FNA, with 28/29 (97 %) patients having at least one worrisome feature on EUS-FNA. A solid component in mucinous PCLs on EUS was independently associated with the presence of HGD or adenocarcinoma (OR 23.6, 95 % CI 6.1-91.6, p < .001). A total of 4/142 (3 %) patients developed adenocarcinoma during the follow-up period (median = 61.4 months). Overall, in 80/82 (98 %) of the patients without worrisome features on EUS-FNA, HGD or adenocarcinoma was not detected. Six of the 21 (29 %) patients with HGD or adenocarcinoma who underwent surgery as initial management died from pancreatic cancer during follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

EUS-FNA is useful for the risk stratification of mucinous PCLs. The low incidence of adenocarcinoma over time after a negative EUS-FNA may allow for a less resource intensive surveillance strategy.

Development of an intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm malignancy prediction scoring system

Despite the presence of various guidelines, diagnosing malignant intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) continues to pose challenges. Furthermore, although endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS) offers high-resolution images, it has not yet recognized as the primary tool for malignancy diagnosis. The study objective was to develop a simplified and user-friendly scoring system to improve the diagnostic accuracy of malignant IPMNs. Additionally, the utility of EUS and its effect on diagnostic accuracy were assessed. We retrospectively collected the clinical data on 160 cases of resected IPMN at Tokyo Medical and Dental University Hospital from January 2008 to December 2022. We examined clinical features, computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings, and EUS results if available. We then calculated the odds ratio of malignancy for these factors and developed an IPMN malignancy prediction (IMAP) scoring system. There were 89 (55.6%) cases of benign IPMNs and 71 (44.4%) of malignant IPMNs. Eight clinical and imaging findings, including age, diabetes mellitus status, jaundice, CA19-9 level, enhancing mural nodules ≥5mm, thickened wall, and main duct dilatation, were significantly associated with malignancy. The IMAP score was calculated by assigning 0 to 2 points to these factors based on the odds ratio. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the IMAP score was 0.78 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.71-0.85] based on CT/MRI alone and improved to 0.81 (95% CI: 0.74-0.87) when EUS was added. When the total exceeds 5 points, the positive predictive value becomes 100% (95% CI: 95.9-100). In conclusion, the IMAP scoring system has demonstrated promise as a clinically useful tool, offering both simplicity and sufficient accuracy. It holds potential as an important decision criterion for determining the treatment approach for IPMN. Additionally, EUS contributes to enhancing the diagnostic accuracy of the IMAP scoring system, thereby enabling more precise decision-making.

Identifying predictors for comorbidities related mortality versus pancreatic cancer related mortality in patients with intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm

BACKGROUNDS

Few data are available for surveillance decisions focusing on factors related to mortality, as the primary outcome, in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) patients.

AIMS

We aimed to identify imaging features and patient backgrounds associated with mortality risks by comparing pancreatic cancer (PC) and comorbidities.

METHODS

We retrospectively conducted a multicenter long-term follow-up of 1864 IPMN patients. Competing risk analysis was performed for PC- and comorbidity-related mortality.

RESULTS

During the median follow-up period of 5.5 years, 14.0% (261/1864) of patients died. Main pancreatic duct ≥5 mm and mural nodules were significantly related to all-cause and PC-related mortality, whereas cyst ≥30 mm did not relate. In 1730 patients without high-risk imaging features, 48 and 180 patients died of PC and comorbidity. In the derivation cohort, a prediction model for comorbidity-related mortality was created, comprising age, cancer history, diabetes mellitus complications, chronic heart failure, stroke, paralysis, peripheral artery disease, liver cirrhosis, and collagen disease in multivariate analysis. If a patient had a 5 score, 5- and 10-year comorbidity-related mortality is estimated at 18.9% and 50.2%, respectively, more than 7 times higher than PC-related mortality. The model score was also significantly associated with comorbidity-related mortality in a validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates main pancreatic duct dilation and mural nodules indicate risk of PC-related mortality, identifying patients who need periodic examination. A comorbidity-related mortality prediction model based on the patient's age and comorbidities can stratify patients who do not require regular tests, especially beyond 5 years, among IPMN patients without high-risk features.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

T2022-0046.

Association of high-risk stigmata and worrisome features with advanced neoplasia in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN): A systematic review

BACKGROUND

This systematic review aimed to assess the diagnostic accuracy of the International Consensus Fukuoka Guidelines (ICG2017) in identifying high-risk lesions of Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms (IPMNs).

METHODS

The ICG2017 revision committee conducted a comprehensive literature review to establish evidence-based statements on IPMNs. The review focused on articles examining the diagnostic value of imaging features (e.g., cyst or main pancreatic duct diameter), clinical symptoms associated with IPMN, and serum biomarkers. Five clinical questions regarding high-risk stigmata (HRS) and worrisome features (WF) in the ICG2017 guidelines were addressed.

RESULTS

A total of 210 articles were reviewed. The findings revealed a significant association between the presence of mural nodules ≥5 mm in diameter or solid components with contrast enhancement and the diagnosis of high-grade dysplasia or invasive carcinoma. Contrast-enhanced diagnostic tools, such as CT, MRI, or EUS, demonstrated the highest prediction rate and were recommended. Positive cytology was identified as an HRS, while symptoms like acute pancreatitis and cyst diameter growth ≥2.5 mm per year were considered WFs. The use of nomograms and multiple diagnostic factors was recommended for optimal IPMN management.

CONCLUSIONS

This systematic review provides evidence supporting the improved diagnostic accuracy of ICG2017 in identifying high-risk lesions of IPMN. The multidisciplinary incorporation of HRS and WF based on imaging findings and clinical symptoms is crucial. These findings should inform the revision of ICG2017, enhancing the evaluation and management of IPMN patients. By implementing these recommendations, clinicians can make more informed decisions, leading to better diagnosis and treatment outcomes for high-risk IPMN cases.

Risk Models for Pancreatic Cyst Diagnosis

The overall prevalence of pancreatic cysts (PCs) is high in the general population. In clinical practice PCs are often incidentally discovered and are classified into benign, premalignant, and malignant lesions according to the World Health Organization. For this reason, in the absence of reliable biomarkers, to date clinical decision-making relies mostly on risk models based on morphological features. The aim of this narrative review is to present the current knowledge regarding PC's morphologic features with related estimated risk of malignancy and discuss available diagnostic tools to minimize clinically relevant diagnostic errors.

Static and Dynamic 68Ga-FAPI PET/CT for the Detection of Malignant Transformation of Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasia of the Pancreas

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) may arise from intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN) with malignant transformation, but a significant portion of IPMN remains to show benign behavior. Therefore, it is important to differentiate between benign IPMN and IPMN lesions undergoing malignant transformation. However, nonoperative differentiation by ultrasound, CT, MRI, and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) is still unsatisfactory. Here, we assessed the clinical feasibility of additional assessment of malignancy by PET using ⁶⁸Ga-labeled fibroblast activation protein inhibitors (⁶⁸Ga-FAPI PET) in 25 patients with MRI- or CT-proven cystic pancreatic lesions. Methods: Twenty-five patients with cystic pancreatic lesions who were followed up in the European Pancreas Center of Heidelberg University hospital and who were led to surgical resection or fine-needle aspiration due to suspicious clinical, laboratory chemistry, or radiologic findings were examined by static (all patients) and dynamic (20 patients) ⁶⁸Ga-FAPI PET. Cystic pancreatic lesions were delineated and SUV_max and SUV_mean were determined. Time-activity curves and dynamic parameters (time to peak, K ₁, k ₂, K3, k ₄) were extracted from dynamic PET data. Receiver-operating curves of static and dynamic PET parameters were calculated. Results: Eleven of the patients had menacing IPMN (high-grade IPMN with [6 cases] or without [5 cases] progression into PDAC) and 11 low-grade IPMN; 3 patients had other benign entities. Menacing IMPN showed significantly elevated ⁶⁸Ga-FAPI uptake compared with low-grade IPMN and other benign cystic lesions. In dynamic imaging, menacing IPMN showed increasing time-activity curves followed by slow decrease afterward; time-activity curves of low-grade IPMN showed an immediate peak followed by rapid decrease for about 10 min and slower decrease for the rest of the time. Receiver-operating curves showed high sensitivity and specificity (area under the curve greater than 80%) of static and dynamic PET parameters for the differentiation of IPMN subtypes. Conclusion: ⁶⁸Ga-FAPI PET is a helpful new tool for the differentiation of menacing and low-grade IPMN and shows the potential to avoid unnecessary surgery for nonmalignant pancreatic IPMN.

A model for predicting degree of malignancy in patients with intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm

Background/Objectives

There is no predictive model available to address early stage malignant intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) including high grade dysplasia (HGD) and pT1a (invasive component≤0.5 cm). The aim of this study was to establish an objective and sufficient model to predict the degree of malignancy in patients with IPMN, which can be easily applied in daily practice and adopted for any type of lesion.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study of 309 patients who underwent surgical resection for IPMN was performed. Members of the cohort were randomly allocated to the training or testing set. A detection tree model and random forest model were used for a 3-class classification to distinguish low grade dysplasia (LGD), HGD/pT1a IPMN, and invasive intraductal papillary mucinous cancer (I-IPMC) beyond pT1a.

Results

Of the 309 patients, 54 (17.4%) had early stage malignancy (19 HGD, 35 pT1a), 49 (15.9%) had I-IPMC beyond pT1a, and 206 (66.7%) had LGD IPMN. We proposed a 3-class classification model using a random forest algorithm, and the model had an accuracy of 99.5% with the training set, and displayed an accuracy of 96.0% with the testing set. We used SHAP for interpretation of the model and showed the top five factors (mural nodule size, main pancreatic duct diameter, CA19-9 levels, lesion edge and common bile duct dilation) were most likely to influence the 3-class classification results in terms of interpretation of the random forest model.

Conclusions

This predictive model will help assess an individual's risk for different stages of IPMN malignancy and may help identify patients with IPMN who require surgery.

Imaging Features for Predicting High-Grade Dysplasia or Malignancy in Branch Duct Type Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm of the Pancreas: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

The consensus guidelines for branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (BD-IPMN) of the pancreas are mostly based on imaging features. This study aimed to determine imaging features and their diagnostic accuracy for predicting high-grade dysplasia (HGD)/malignancy in BD-IPMN, including mixed type.

METHODS

The PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane databases were searched, and data were extracted from relevant studies. As the main diagnostic accuracy index, diagnostic odds ratios (DORs) of imaging features for diagnosing HGD/malignancy in BD-IPMNs were pooled using the random-effects model. A bivariate random-effects approach was used to construct summary receiver operating characteristic curves for sensitivity and specificity estimation.

RESULTS

The pooled DOR was the highest for the enhanced solid component/mural nodule (MN) (DOR, 12.21; 95 % confidence interval [CI], 6.14-24.27), followed by a main pancreatic duct (MPD) diameter of 10 mm or greater (DOR, 7.93; 95 % CI, 3.02-20.83), solid component (DOR, 4.85; 95 % CI, 2.49-9.42), lymphadenopathy (DOR, 4.84; 95 % CI, 1.11-21.06), MN (DOR, 4.48; 95 % CI, 3.15-6.39), an MPD diameter of 5 mm or greater (DOR, 3.69; 95 % CI, 2.62-5.19), abrupt change in MPD caliber with distal pancreatic atrophy (DOR, 2.65; 95 % CI, 1.66-4.24), thickened/enhancing walls (DOR, 2.38; 95 % CI, 1.57-3.60), and cyst size of 3 cm or larger (DOR, 1.98; 95 % CI, 1.48-2.64). The largest area under the curve (0.89 and 0.95, respectively) and high specificity (0.95 and 0.98, respectively) also were found for enhanced solid component/MN and an MPD diameter of 10 mm or greater, albeit with low sensitivity (0.38 and 0.14, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

The aforementioned imaging features could aid in predicting HGD/malignancy of BD-IPMN. Furthermore, enhanced solid component/MN and an MPD diameter of 10 mm or greater were the most important predictors of HGD/malignancy in BD-IPMN and should be considered as indications for surgery.

Assessment of Malignancy Potential in Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms of the Pancreas on MDCT

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVE

To assess the malignancy potential of intraduct papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) on multidetector-row computerized tomography according to the 2012 International Consensus Guidelines (ICG).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This study retrospectively collected IPMNs confirmed by surgery from 2016 to 2019. The imaging findings of IPMNs were analyzed. IPMNs were classified as malignancy in the presence of high-grade dysplasia or invasive carcinoma and began in the presence of low- and intermediate-grade dysplasia.

RESULTS

A total of 207 patients (mean age: 63.7 ± 7.9 years) were included, and the prevalence of malignancy was 28.0% (58 of 207). According to the 2012 ICG, the imaging findings of IPMNs were divided into worrisome features (WFs) and high-risk stigmata (HRS). The malignancy of IPMN with only one WF was relatively low (1.4%, 3 of 207). In multivariate regression analyses, the independent factors of IPMNs were enhanced mural nodule ≥5 mm (odds ratio [OR] = 19.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] 6.8-55.4), abrupt change in the main pancreatic duct caliber with distal pancreatic atrophy (OR = 4.6, 95%CI 1.67-12.71), and thickened enhanced cyst walls (OR = 2.9, 95%CI 1.1-8.2). When the presence of more than two WFs or HRS (score ≥ 3) was regarded as indicating the malignancy potential of IPMNs on multidetector-row computerized tomography, the sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) were 89.7%, 75.8%, 79.7%, 59.1%, and 95.0%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

According to the ICG in 2012, patients with IPMNs with only one WF have a low risk for malignancy, and the presence of at least two WFs or any HRS (score ≥3) suggests malignant IPMNs.

Ductal Dilatation of ≥5 mm in Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm Should Trigger the Consideration for Pancreatectomy: A Meta-Analysis and Systematic Review of Resected Cases

Simple Summary

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN) are common but difficult to manage since accurate tools for diagnosing malignancy are unavailable. This study evaluates the diagnostic value of main pancreatic duct (MPD) diameter for detecting IPMN malignancy, using a meta-analysis of published data. The result suggests that malignancy is highly prevalent in IPMN with ductal dilatation of >5 mm.

Abstract

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN) are common but difficult to manage since accurate tools for diagnosing malignancy are unavailable. This study tests the diagnostic value of the main pancreatic duct (MPD) diameter for detecting IPMN malignancy using a meta-analysis of published data of resected IPMNs. Collected from a comprehensive literature search, the articles included in this analysis must report malignancy cases (high-grade dysplasia (HGD) and invasive carcinoma (IC)) and MPD diameter so that two MPD cut-offs could be created. The sensitivity, specificity, and odds ratios of the two cutoffs for predicting malignancy were calculated. A review of 1493 articles yielded 20 retrospective studies with 3982 resected cases. A cutoff of ≥5 mm is more sensitive than the ≥10 mm cutoff and has pooled sensitivity of 72.20% and 75.60% for classification of HGD and IC, respectively. Both MPD cutoffs of ≥5 mm and ≥10 mm were associated with malignancy (OR = 4.36 (95% CI: 2.82, 6.75) vs. OR = 3.18 (95% CI: 2.25, 4.49), respectively). The odds of HGD and IC for patients with MPD ≥5 mm were 5.66 (95% CI: 3.02, 10.62) and 7.40 (95% CI: 4.95, 11.06), respectively. OR of HGD and IC for MPD ≥10 mm cutoff were 4.36 (95% CI: 3.20, 5.93) and 4.75 (95% CI: 2.39, 9.45), respectively. IPMN with MPD of >5 mm could very likely be malignant. In selected IPMN patients, pancreatectomy should be considered when MPD is >5 mm.

Molecular analysis of pancreatic cystic neoplasm in routine clinical practice

BACKGROUND

Cystic pancreatic lesions consist of a wide variety of lesions that are becoming increasingly diagnosed with the growing use of imaging techniques. Of these, mucinous cysts are especially relevant due to their risk of malignancy. However, morphological findings are often suboptimal for their differentiation. Endoscopic ultrasound fine-needle aspiration (EUS-FNA) with molecular analysis has been suggested to improve the diagnosis of pancreatic cysts.

AIM

To determine the impact of molecular analysis on the detection of mucinous cysts and malignancy.

METHODS

An 18-month prospective observational study of consecutive patients with pancreatic cystic lesions and an indication for EUS-FNA following European clinical practice guidelines was conducted. These cysts included those > 15 mm with unclear diagnosis, and a change in follow-up or with concerning features in which results might change clinical management. EUS-FNA with cytological, biochemical and glucose and molecular analyses with next-generation sequencing were performed in 36 pancreatic cysts. The cysts were classified as mucinous and non-mucinous by the combination of morphological, cytological and biochemical analyses when surgery was not performed. Malignancy was defined as cytology positive for malignancy, high-grade dysplasia or invasive carcinoma on surgical specimen, clinical or morphological progression, metastasis or death related to neoplastic complications during the 6-mo follow-up period. Next-generation sequencing results were compared for cyst type and malignancy.

RESULTS

Of the 36 lesions included, 28 (82.4%) were classified as mucinous and 6 (17.6%) as non-mucinous. Furthermore, 5 (13.9%) lesions were classified as malignant. The amount of deoxyribonucleic acid obtained was sufficient for molecular analysis in 25 (69.4%) pancreatic cysts. The amount of intracystic deoxyribonucleic acid was not statistically related to the cyst fluid volume obtained from the lesions. Analysis of KRAS and/or GNAS showed 83.33% [95% confidence interval (CI): 63.34-100] sensitivity, 60% (95%CI: 7.06-100) specificity, 88.24% (95%CI: 69.98-100) positive predictive value and 50% (95%CI: 1.66-98.34) negative predictive value (P = 0.086) for the diagnosis of mucinous cystic lesions. Mutations in KRAS and GNAS were found in 2/5 (40%) of the lesions classified as non-mucinous, thus recategorizing those lesions as mucinous neoplasms, which would have led to a modification of the follow-up plan in 8% of the cysts in which molecular analysis was successfully performed. All 4 (100%) malignant cysts in which molecular analysis could be performed had mutations in KRAS and/or GNAS, although they were not related to malignancy (P > 0.05). None of the other mutations analyzed could detect mucinous or malignant cysts with statistical significance (P > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Molecular analysis can improve the classification of pancreatic cysts as mucinous or non-mucinous. Mutations were not able to detect malignant lesions.

Predictive Features of Malignancy in Branch Duct Type Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm of the Pancreas: A Meta-Analysis

Simple Summary

Currently, there are several guidelines that are widely used to establish the treatment strategy for branch duct type intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms. Although there are some common grounds, there are discrepancies on which features they adopt, how much each feature is weighted, and how the features are combined. Furthermore, some of the features are based on lower level evidences or expert opinions. The aim of this meta-analysis was to investigate important clinical, radiological, and biochemical risk factors for malignancy and their impact as predictors. This study found symptom, size, cyst wall thickening, presence of mural nodule, change in main pancreatic duct caliber, lymphadenopathy, CA 19-9, and CEA as risk factors. Lymphadenopathy (odd ratio [OR]: 8.55), abrupt caliber change (OR: 7.41), and mural nodule (OR: 4.10) had the highest odd ratios. We expect the higher level evidences of this study to help shape better guidelines and reduce discrepancies among future guidelines.

Abstract

The current guidelines on branch duct type intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (BD-IPMN) recommend various predictive features of malignancy as well as different treatment strategies. This study aimed to identify the risk factors for malignancy with higher level of evidence. A meta-analysis was performed on 40 literatures published between 2000 and 2019. These literatures included 6301 patients with pathologically proven IPMN. Malignancy was defined as high-grade dysplasia and invasive carcinoma. It was significantly associated with symptoms (odds ratio [OR] 1.35, confidence interval [CI] 1.01–1.79), size ≥ 3 cm (OR 1.90, CI 1.51–2.40), cystic wall thickening (OR 2.53, CI 1.50–4.27), mural nodule (OR 4.10, CI 3.38–4.97), main pancreatic duct dilatation (OR 2.98, CI 2.11–4.21), abrupt caliber change of the pancreatic duct (OR 7.41, CI 2.49–22.06), lymphadenopathy (OR 8.55, CI 3.25–22.51), elevated carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (OR 4.01, CI 2.55–6.28), and elevated carcinoembryonic antigen (OR 2.04, CI 1.60–2.61). Multilocular cysts and multiple cysts did not show a significant association with malignancy. This study examined the clinical, radiological, and biochemical features of BD-IPMN, often used as malignancy predictors according to the widely used guidelines. The results confirmed that all the features currently being used are valid.

New Model for Predicting Malignancy in Patients With Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm

OBJECTIVE

To create a simple, objective model to predict the presence of malignancy in patients with intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN), which can be easily applied in daily practice and, importantly, adopted for any lesion types.

BACKGROUND

No predictive model for malignant IPMN has been widely applied in clinical practice.

METHODS

The clinical details of 466 patients with IPMN who underwent pancreatic resection at 3 hospitals were retrospectively analyzed for model development. Then, the model was validated in 664 surgically resected patients at 8 hospitals in Japan.In the preoperative examination, endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS) was considered to be essential to observe mural nodules in both the model development and external validation sets. Malignant IPMNs were defined as those with high-grade dysplasia and associated invasive carcinoma.

RESULTS

Of the 466 patients, 258 (55%) had malignant IPMNs (158 high-grade dysplasia, 100 invasive carcinoma), and 208 (45%) had benign IPMNs. Logistic regression analysis resulted in 3 variables (mural nodule size, main pancreatic duct diameter, and cyst size) being selected to construct the model. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the model was 0.763. In external validation sets, the pathological diagnosis was malignant and benign IPMN in 351 (53%) and 313 (47%) cases, respectively. For the external validation, the malignancy prediction ability of the model corresponded to an AUC of 0.725.

CONCLUSION

This predictive model provides important information for physicians and patients in assessing an individual's risk for malignancy and may help to identify patients who need surgery.

Multiphase computed tomography radiomics of pancreatic intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms to predict malignancy

BACKGROUND

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) are non-invasive pancreatic precursor lesions that can potentially develop into invasive pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. Currently, the International Consensus Guidelines (ICG) for IPMNs provides the basis for evaluating suspected IPMNs on computed tomography (CT) imaging. Despite using the ICG, it remains challenging to accurately predict whether IPMNs harbor high grade or invasive disease which would warrant surgical resection. A supplementary quantitative radiological tool, radiomics, may improve diagnostic accuracy of radiological evaluation of IPMNs. We hypothesized that using CT whole lesion radiomics features in conjunction with the ICG could improve the diagnostic accuracy of predicting IPMN histology.

AIM

To evaluate whole lesion CT radiomic analysis of IPMNs for predicting malignant histology compared to International Consensus Guidelines.

METHODS

Fifty-one subjects who had pancreatic surgical resection at our institution with histology demonstrating IPMN and available preoperative CT imaging were included in this retrospective cohort. Whole lesion semi-automated segmentation was performed on each preoperative CT using Healthmyne software (Healthmyne, Madison, WI). Thirty-nine relevant radiomic features were extracted from each lesion on each available contrast phase. Univariate analysis of the 39 radiomics features was performed for each contrast phase and values were compared between malignant and benign IPMN groups using logistic regression. Conventional quantitative and qualitative CT measurements were also compared between groups, via χ² (categorical) and Mann Whitney U (continuous) variables.

RESULTS

Twenty-nine subjects (15 males, age 71 ± 9 years) with high grade or invasive tumor histology comprised the "malignant" cohort, while 22 subjects (11 males, age 70 ± 7 years) with low grade tumor histology were included in the "benign" cohort. Radiomic analysis showed 18/39 precontrast, 19/39 arterial phase, and 21/39 venous phase features differentiated malignant from benign IPMNs (P < 0.05). Multivariate analysis including only ICG criteria yielded two significant variables: thickened and enhancing cyst wall and enhancing mural nodule < 5 mm with an AUC (95%CI) of 0.817 (0.709-0.926). Multivariable post contrast radiomics achieved an AUC (95%CI) of 0.87 (0.767-0.974) for a model including arterial phase radiomics features and 0.834 (0.716-0.953) for a model including venous phase radiomics features. Combined multivariable model including conventional variables and arterial phase radiomics features achieved an AUC (95%CI) of 0.93 (0.85-1.0) with a 5-fold cross validation AUC of 0.90.

CONCLUSION

Multi-phase CT radiomics evaluation could play a role in improving predictive capability in diagnosing malignancy in IPMNs. Future larger studies may help determine the clinical significance of our findings.

Development of a new risk score for invasive cancer in branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms according to morphological characterization by EUS

Background and Objective

The management of branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (BD-IPMNs) is determined by a number of guidelines. The current weight of risk factors by EUS predicting invasive cancer is unknown. The aim of this study is to develop a risk score for early prediction of invasive cancer according to morphological characterization by EUS in a surgical cohort.

Materials and Methods

This is an observational, multicenter retrospective study. All consecutive patients with a histologically proven BD-IPMN who underwent previous EUS between 2005 and 2017 were included. Morphological features by EUS were evaluated. A score using a logistic regression model was performed to assess the risk of invasive cancer.

Results

Of 335 patients who underwent pancreatic surgery, 131 (median age: 66 years, 50.4% - male) were included. By multivariable analysis, lymph nodes (odds ratio [OR]: 17.7 [confidence interval (CI) 95%: 2.8-112.6], P = 0.002, 4 points), main pancreatic duct ≥10 mm (OR: 8.6 [CI 95%: 1.9-39.5], P = 0.006, 2 points), abrupt change of pancreatic duct (OR: 5.5 [CI 95%: 1.4-22.2], P = 0.016, 1.5 points), and solid component (OR: 4.2 [CI 95%: 1.3-13.6], P = 0.017, 1 point) were independent factors associated with invasive cancer and included in the model. The following categories of the score (0-8.5 points) - A (0-1), B (1.5-3), C (3.5-5), and D (5.5-8.5 points) - presented a positive predictive value of 8.5%, 38.9%, 62.5%, and 100%, respectively. The area under the curve was 0.857 (P < 0.001), with an overall sensitivity and specificity of 84% and 70% in the internal validation of the score.

Conclusion

This EUS predictive score for invasive cancer in BD-IPMN has a high accuracy and could be an additional tool to consider in patient management.

[Indications for the Surgical Management of Pancreatic Cystic Lesions]

A steady improvement in modern imaging as well as increasing age in society have led to an increasing number of cystic pancreatic tumours being detected. Pancreatic cysts are a clinically challenging entity because they span a broad biological spectrum and their differentiation is often difficult, especially in small tumours. Therefore, they require a differentiated indication for indication of surgery. To determine recommendations for the surgical indication in cystic tumours of the pancreas, a quality committee for pancreatic diseases of the German Society for General and Visceral Surgery performed a systematic literature search and created this review. Based on the current evidence, signs of malignancy and high-risk criteria (icterus due to cystic pancreatic duct obstruction in the bile duct, enhancing mural nodules ≥ 5 mm or solid components in the cyst or pancreatic duct ≥ 10 mm), as well as symptoms, are a surgical indication, independently of the cyst entity (except pseudocysts). If the entity of the pancreatic cyst is detectable by diagnostic imaging, all main duct IPMN and IPMN of the mixed type, all MCN > 4 cm and all SPN should be resected. SCN and branch-duct IPMN without worrisome features do not constitute an indication for surgery. The indication of operation in branch-duct IPMN with relative risk criteria and MCN < 4 cm is the subject of current discussions and should be individualised. By defining indication recommendations, the present work aims to improve the indication quality in cystic pancreatic tumours. However, the surgical indication should always be individualised, taking into account age, comorbidities and the patient's wishes.

Accuracy of Fukuoka and American Gastroenterological Association Guidelines for Predicting Advanced Neoplasia in Pancreatic Cyst Neoplasm: A Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

A differential diagnosis of advanced pancreatic cystic neoplasms (PCNs) is critical to determine optimal treatment. The Fukuoka and American Gastroenterological Association (AGA) guidelines are the most widely accepted criteria for the management of PCNs.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to evaluate the diagnostic value of these guidelines in predicting advanced neoplasia (AN).

METHODS

A comprehensive electronic search of the PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and Scopus databases was conducted to identify all relevant studies evaluating the Fukuoka and AGA guidelines in surgically resected and histologically confirmed PCNs. Pooled sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic odds ratios (DORs) were calculated as compound measures of diagnostic accuracy using the random-effects model. Summary of receiver operating characteristic (SROC) curves and the area under the curve (AUC) were also performed.

RESULTS

A total of 21 studies with 3723 patients were included in this meta-analysis. Of these studies, 15, 4, and 2 evaluated the Fukuoka guidelines, the AGA guidelines, and both guidelines, respectively. For AN prediction, the Fukuoka guidelines had a pooled sensitivity of 0.67 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.64-0.70), pooled specificity of 0.64 (95% CI 0.62-0.66), and pooled DOR of 6.28 (95% CI 4.38-9.01), with an AUC of the SROC of 0.78. AGA guidelines showed a pooled sensitivity of 0.59 (95% CI 0.52-0.65), pooled specificity of 0.77 (95% CI 0.74-0.80), and pooled DOR of 5.84 (95% CI 2.60-13.15), with an AUC of 0.79 (95% CI 0.70-0.88).

CONCLUSION

When used alone, the Fukuoka and AGA guidelines showed similar but unsatisfactory diagnostic accuracy in the risk stratification of malignant potential of PCN. Thus, we recommend that they be applied only as a broad framework in clinical practice.

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas and European guidelines: importance of the surgery type in the decision-making process

BACKGROUND

The European Consensus 2018 established a new algorithm with absolute and relative criteria for intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas (IPMN) management. The aim of this study was to validate these criteria and analyse the outcomes in function of the surgical procedure and IPMN subtype.

METHODS

Clinical, radiological and surgical data (procedure, morbidity/mortality rates) of patients who underwent surgery for IPMN between 2007 and 2017. The predictive value of the different criteria was analysed.

RESULTS

124 patients (men 67%; mean age 65 years) underwent surgery for IPMN (n = 62 malignant tumours; 50%). Jaundice, cyst ≥4 cm and Wirsung duct size 5-9.9 mm or ≥ 10 mm were significantly associated with malignancy (4.77 < OR < 11.85 p < 0.0001). The positive predictive value of any isolated criterion ranged from 71 to 87%, whereas that of three relative criteria together reached 100%. The mortality and morbidity (grade III-IV complications according to the Dindo-Clavien classification) rates were 3 and 8%, respectively. Morbidity/mortality after duodenopancreatectomy and total pancreatectomy were significantly higher for benign IPMN (p = 0.01).

CONCLUSION

Considering the morbidity associated with extended surgery, particularly for benign IPMN, the results of the present study suggest that high-risk surgery should be considered only in the presence of three relative criteria and including the surgery type in the decision-making algorithm.

Risk of advanced lesions in patients with branch-duct IPMN and relative indications for surgery according to European evidence-based guidelines

BACKGROUND

European evidence-based guidelines proposed surgery for branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (BD-IPMNs) based on the presence of 1-2 relative indications, depending on the comorbidity burden.

AIMS

To assess the accuracy of the guidelines in patients with relative indications in a surgical cohort of demonstrated BD-IPMNs.

METHODS

This report describes a multi-centre, observational, retrospective study. All consecutive patients with relative indications and histologically confirmed BD-IPMN were included. The main outcome was risk of invasive carcinoma in patients with relative indications.

RESULTS

Ninety-one patients with BD-IPMN underwent surgery because of absolute (n = 21), relative (n = 60), or no formal indications (n = 10). In total, there were 60 patients (mean age: 66 ± 9, 50% male) with one (n = 35, 58.3%) or ≥2 relative indications (n = 25, 41.7%). The global advanced lesion and invasive carcinoma rates were 40% and 13.3%, respectively. No risk factor was associated with high-grade dysplasia or invasive carcinoma. Patients with one indication had a lower risk of invasive carcinoma than did those with ≥2 relative indications (5.7% vs. 24%, respectively, p = 0.048); however, the advanced lesion rates were comparable (37.1% vs. 44%, p = 0.593).

CONCLUSIONS

Invasive carcinoma is considerably more frequent in patients with two or more relative indications. The surgical strategy in these selected cases should be decided on an individual basis.

The clinical value of ERCP-guided cholangiopancreatoscopy using a single-operator system

BACKGROUND

Single-operator, per-oral cholangiopancreatoscopy (SOPCP) enables direct biliopancreatic ductal visualization, targeted tissue sampling, and therapeutic intervention. At Karolinska University Hospital, SOPCP was introduced early and has since been extensively utilized according to a standardized protocol. We analysed the clinical value of SOPCP in the diagnosis and treatment of biliopancreatic diseases in a single high volume center.

METHODS

All SOPCP procedures performed between March 2007 and December 2014 were retrospectively reviewed. Each procedure's diagnostic yield and therapeutic value was evaluated using a predefined 4 grade scale; 1 - no diagnostic or therapeutic value, 2 - information gained did not impact clinical decision-making and in case of a therapeutic intervention, did not alter the clinical course of the patient, 3 - information gained had an impact on clinical decision-making and in the case of a therapeutic intervention, assisted subsequent disease management, and finally, 4 - information gained was essential and critical for clinical decision-making and in case of a therapeutic intervention, solved the clinical problem requiring no further therapeutic actions. Descriptive statistics were used to analyse results, with uni- and multivariate analyses completed to assess risk of adverse events.

RESULTS

During the study period, 365 SOPCP procedures were performed. We found SOPCP of pivotal importance (grade 4) in 19% of cases, and of great clinical significance (grade 3) in 44% of cases. SOPCP did not affect clinical decision-making or alter clinical course (grade 1 and 2) in 37% of cases.

CONCLUSION

SOPCP offers direct access to the biliopancreatic ducts for both diagnostic and therapeutic purposes, adding significant clinical value in 64% of cases.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

As this is a purely observational and retrospectively registered study in which the assignment of the medical intervention was not at the discretion of the investigator, it has not been registered in a registry.

Importance of main pancreatic duct dilatation in IPMN undergoing surveillance

BACKGROUND

The association between risk of pancreatic cancer and a dilated main pancreatic duct (MPD) in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) is debated. The aim of this study was to assess the role of MPD size in predicting pancreatic cancer in resected IPMNs and those kept under surveillance.

METHODS

All patients with IPMN referred to the Pancreas Institute, University of Verona Hospital Trust, from 2006 to 2016 were included. The primary endpoint was the occurrence of malignancy detected at surgery or during follow-up.

RESULTS

The final cohort consisted of 1688 patients with a median follow-up of 60 months. Main pancreatic duct dilatation was associated with other features of malignancy in both the resected and surveillance groups. In patients who underwent resection, only a MPD of at least 10 mm was an independent predictor of malignancy. In patients kept under surveillance, MPD dilatation was not associated with malignancy. Fifteen of 71 patients (21 per cent) with malignancy in the resection cohort had a dilated MPD alone, whereas only one of 30 (3 per cent) under surveillance with MPD dilatation alone developed malignancy. Patients with a dilated MPD and other worrisome features had an increased 5-year cumulative incidence of malignancy compared with those with a non-dilated duct (11 versus 1·2 per cent; P < 0·001); however, the risk of malignancy was not significantly increased in patients with a dilated MPD alone (4 versus 1·2 per cent; P = 0·448).

CONCLUSION

In patients under surveillance, a dilated MPD alone was not associated with an increased incidence of malignancy in IPMN.

New horizons in the endoscopic ultrasonography-based diagnosis of pancreatic cystic lesions

Pancreatic cystic lesions (PCLs) are increasingly being identified because of the widespread use of high-resolution abdominal imaging. These cysts encompass a spectrum from malignant disease to benign lesions, and therefore, accurate diagnosis is crucial to determine the best management strategy, either surgical resection or surveillance. However, the current standard of diagnosis is not accurate enough due to limitations of imaging and tissue sampling techniques, which entail the risk of unnecessary burdensome surgery for benign lesions or missed opportunities of prophylactic surgery for potentially malignant PCLs. In the last decade, endoscopic innovations based on endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS) imaging have emerged, aiming to overcome the present limitations. These new EUS-based technologies are contrast harmonic EUS, needle-based confocal endomicroscopy, through-the-needle cystoscopy and through-the needle intracystic biopsy. Here, we present a comprehensive and critical review of these emerging endoscopic tools for the diagnosis of PCLs, with a special emphasis on feasibility, safety and diagnostic performance.

Long-term follow-up of low-risk branch-duct IPMNs of the pancreas: is main pancreatic duct dilatation the most worrisome feature?

OBJECTIVES

The management of branch-duct IPMN remains controversial due to the relatively low rate of malignant degeneration and the uncertain predictive role of high-risk stigmata (HRS) and worrisome features (WFs) identified by the 2012 International Consensus Guidelines. Our aim was to evaluate the evolution of originally low-risk (Fukuoka-negative) BD-IPMNs during a long follow-up period in order to determine whether the appearance of any clinical or morphological variables may be independently associated with the development of malignancy over time.

METHODS

A prospectively collected database of all patients with BD-IPMN referring to our Institute between 2002 and 2016 was retrospectively analyzed. Univariate and multivariate analysis of association between changes during follow-up, including appearance of HRS/WFs, and development of malignancy (high-grade dysplasia/invasive carcinoma) was performed.

RESULTS

A total of 167 patients were selected for analysis, and seven developed malignant disease (4.2%). During a median follow-up time of 55 months, HRS appeared in only three cases but predicted malignancy with 100% specificity. Worrisome features, on the other hand, appeared in 44 patients (26.3%). Appearance of mural nodules and MPD dilatation >5 mm showed a significant association with malignancy in multivariate analysis (p = 0.004 and p = 0.001, respectively). MPD dilatation in particular proved to be the strongest independent risk factor for development of malignancy (OR = 24.5).

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of pancreatic malignancy in this population is low but definite. The presence of major WFs, and especially MPD dilatation, should prompt a tighter follow-up with EUS and a valid cytological analysis whenever feasible.

Systematic review of the clinical utility and validity of the Sendai and Fukuoka Consensus Guidelines for the management of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas

BACKGROUND

This systematic review was performed to assess the clinical utility of the Sendai Consensus Guidelines (SCG) and Fukuoka Consensus Guidelines (FCG) for intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN).

METHODS

A computerized search of PubMed was performed to identify all the studies which evaluated the SCG and FCG in surgically resected, histologically confirmed IPMNs.

RESULTS

Ten studies evaluating the FCG, 8 evaluating the SCG and 4 evaluating both guidelines were included. In 14 studies evaluating the FCG, out of a total of 2498 neoplasms, 849 were malignant and 1649 were benign neoplasms. Pooled analysis showed that 751 of 1801 (42%) FCG+ve neoplasms were malignant and 599 neoplasms of 697 (86%) FCG-ve neoplasms were benign. PPV of the high risk and worrisome risk groups were 465/986 (47%) and 239/520 (46%) respectively. In 12 studies evaluating the SCG, 1234 neoplasms were analyzed of which 388 (31%) were malignant and 846 (69%) were benign. Pooled analysis demonstrated that 265 of 802 (33%) SCG+ve neoplasms were malignant and 238 of 266 SCG-ve (90%) neoplasms were benign.

CONCLUSION

The FCG had a higher positive predictive value (PPV) compared to the SCG. However, the negative predictive value (NPV) of the FCG was slightly lower than that of the SCG. Malignant and even invasive IPMN may be missed according to both guidelines.

Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm of the Pancreas as the Main Focus for Early Detection of Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma

For early detection of pancreatic cancer, interests are now focused on the detection of high-risk individuals to undergo screening examinations. Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) is a unique dual precursor of pancreatic cancer, characterized by progression to invasive cancer and the development of pancreatic adenocarcinoma either concomitantly (synchronous occurrence) or even after resection of IPMN (metachronous occurrence). Careful examination and surveillance of patients with IPMN may therefore lead to early detection of pancreatic cancer. By reviewing only reports describing detailed breakdown of the morphological types of IPMN and numbers of patients with noninvasive and invasive carcinoma in each type, the rough frequencies of noninvasive carcinoma in main duct IPMNs and branch duct IPMNs (BD-IPMNs) are 20% and 10%, respectively, and those of invasive carcinoma are 40% and 13%, respectively. Roughly 5% of all patients with IPMN had concomitant adenocarcinoma. The real frequency of carcinoma in BD-IPMNs would be far lower because most patients with small asymptomatic BD-IPMNs do not undergo resection. Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm can be the main focus for early detection of pancreatic cancer to achieve favorable prognosis after surgical resection. The optimal protocol for surveillance and method for early detection of pancreatic cancer are to be determined.

European evidence-based guidelines on pancreatic cystic neoplasms

Evidence-based guidelines on the management of pancreatic cystic neoplasms (PCN) are lacking. This guideline is a joint initiative of the European Study Group on Cystic Tumours of the Pancreas, United European Gastroenterology, European Pancreatic Club, European-African Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Association, European Digestive Surgery, and the European Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy. It replaces the 2013 European consensus statement guidelines on PCN. European and non-European experts performed systematic reviews and used GRADE methodology to answer relevant clinical questions on nine topics (biomarkers, radiology, endoscopy, intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN), mucinous cystic neoplasm (MCN), serous cystic neoplasm, rare cysts, (neo)adjuvant treatment, and pathology). Recommendations include conservative management, relative and absolute indications for surgery. A conservative approach is recommended for asymptomatic MCN and IPMN measuring <40 mm without an enhancing nodule. Relative indications for surgery in IPMN include a main pancreatic duct (MPD) diameter between 5 and 9.9 mm or a cyst diameter ≥40 mm. Absolute indications for surgery in IPMN, due to the high-risk of malignant transformation, include jaundice, an enhancing mural nodule >5 mm, and MPD diameter >10 mm. Lifelong follow-up of IPMN is recommended in patients who are fit for surgery. The European evidence-based guidelines on PCN aim to improve the diagnosis and management of PCN.

The 2012 International Consensus Guidelines of Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms of the Pancreas (Fukuoka Criteria) Predict the Malignant Potential, Even in Actual Clinical Situations

OBJECTIVES

The aim of the present study was to validate the use of the 2012 International Consensus Guidelines for intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) (Fukuoka criteria) in patients without findings of obstructive jaundice and/or an enhanced solid component.

METHODS

This retrospective study included patients who underwent pancreatectomy for IPMN between October 2002 and September 2016. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values for malignancy were calculated for each feature of high-risk stigmata.

RESULTS

Of the 135 patients who underwent surgery for IPMN, 50 (37.0%) had low/intermediate-grade dysplasia, 25 (18.5%) had high-grade dysplasia, and the remaining 60 (44.5%) had invasive carcinoma. A malignant potential was, thus, present in 63% of all resected cases. Considering an actual clinical situation, the predictors for malignant potential were assessed in 62 patients without findings of obstructive jaundice and/or an enhanced solid component. A multivariate analysis revealed that the Fukuoka criteria were the only independent factor for predicting the malignant potential (odds ratio, 5.69; P = 0.036).

CONCLUSIONS

The present study suggested that malignant potential can be accurately detected by faithfully keeping to the Fukuoka criteria. Using these criteria enables us to identify patients with malignant potential, even in the actual clinical situations.

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm of the pancreas - epidemiology, risk factors, diagnosis, and management

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) is one of the most common cystic neoplasms of the pancreas. It is a heterogeneous disease and can be divided into ductal types and morphological subtypes. The incidence of IPMN is increasing, likely due to the widespread use of cross-sectional imaging and a growing elderly population. IPMN poses an increasing demand on the health care system. Current guidelines provide indications for surgery and recommendations for surveillance, but management of IPMN is still challenging in routine clinical practice. In this article, we review current knowledge about IPMN and provide future directions for improving diagnosis and management.

Revisions of international consensus Fukuoka guidelines for the management of IPMN of the pancreas

The management of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) continues to evolve. In particular, the indications for resection of branch duct IPMN have changed from early resection to more deliberate observation as proposed by the international consensus guidelines of 2006 and 2012. Another guideline proposed by the American Gastroenterological Association in 2015 restricted indications for surgery more stringently and recommended physicians to stop surveillance if no significant change had occurred in a pancreatic cyst after five years of surveillance, or if a patient underwent resection and a non-malignant IPMN was found. Whether or not it is safe to do so, as well as the method and interval of surveillance, has generated substantial debate. Based on a consensus symposium held during the meeting of the International Association of Pancreatology in Sendai, Japan, in 2016, the working group has revised the guidelines regarding prediction of invasive carcinoma and high-grade dysplasia, surveillance, and postoperative follow-up of IPMN. As the working group did not recognize the need for major revisions of the guidelines, we made only minor revisions and added most recent articles where appropriate. The present guidelines include updated information and recommendations based on our current understanding, and highlight issues that remain controversial or where further research is required.