Higher Charlson Comorbidity Index Increases 90-Day Readmission Rate with Poorer Functional Outcomes in Surgically Treated Hip Fracture Patients

An External Validation of the Pathologic Fracture Mortality Index for Predicting 30-day Postoperative Morbidity Using 978 Institutional Patients

INTRODUCTION

Skeletal metastases increase the risk of pathologic fractures, causing functional impairment and pain. Predicting morbidity in patients undergoing surgical fixation for these fractures is challenging due to the complexity of metastatic disease. The Pathologic Fracture Mortality Index (PFMI) was developed to predict 30-day postoperative morbidity in long bone fractures caused by metastases. External validation is necessary for clinical use. This study aims to evaluate the following: (1) How well does the PFMI predict 30-day medical, surgical, utilization, and all-cause morbidity after pathologic fracture fixation in an external cohort of patients with long bone metastases? (2) How does the performance of the PFMI compare to established predictive indices including the American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification score, the modified 5-Item Frailty Index (mF-I5), and the modified Charlson Comorbidity Index (mCCI)?

METHODS

We analyzed 978 patients who underwent internal fixation for pathologic fractures at two urban tertiary centers. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was calculated for each predictive index to assess their accuracy in predicting 30-day morbidity across medical, surgical, utilization, and all-cause categories.

RESULTS

All four predictive indices demonstrated suboptimal performance, with AUC values ranging from 0.51-0.62, 0.45-0.51, 0.51-0.62, and 0.50-0.57 for medical, surgical, utilization, and all-cause morbidity, respectively. The PFMI outperformed the ASA ( P < 0.001), mF-I5 ( P = 0.018), and mCCI ( P = 0.034) in predicting utilization morbidity. It also better predicted medical ( P = 0.021) and all-cause ( P = 0.009) morbidity than ASA but did not outperform mF-I5 or mCCI in these areas. The PFMI did not surpass any indices in surgical morbidity.

CONCLUSION

None of the indices reached the ideal AUC of 0.80 for any morbidity type, emphasizing the need for refinement. Updating these tools with contemporary data and exploring new prognostic factors is critical to improve morbidity risk stratification in metastatic bone disease.

To analyze the risk factors associated with mortality within 1 year after surgery in elderly patients with hip fracture and to assess the value of the age-corrected Charlson comorbidity index in predicting this mortality risk

To investigate the determining risk factors for 1-year postoperative mortality in elderly patients with hip fracture and to assess the efficacy of the age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index (ACCI) in predicting the risk of death. This study adopted a retrospective analysis method to focus on 652 elderly patients who underwent hip fracture surgery between January 2018 and November 2022 in our hospital. By systematically combing the patients' medical records, relevant data were collected and analyzed in depth for their association with morbidity and mortality rates within 1 year. In the 1-year follow-up for 652 elderly patients who underwent hip fracture surgery, the proportion of deaths due to disease amounted to 21.5% (140/652). Univariate analysis using the Cox proportional hazard model revealed that age, number of hospital days, ACCI, and the occurrence of postoperative pneumonia were significantly associated with the rate of morbidity and mortality within 1 year. Further multivariate Cox regression analysis confirmed that age (hazard ratio [HR], 1.087 [95% confidence interval [CI], 1.060-1.114]), ACCI (HR, 1.645 [95% CI, 1.548-1.747]), and postoperative pneumonia (HR, 2.353 [95% CI, 1.624-3.408]) served as independent risk factors that significantly influenced the patients' 1-year survival. The ACCI excelled in predicting the risk of 1-year postoperative mortality, with an AUC of 0.912 for its prediction model and a specificity and sensitivity of 0.834 and 0.871, respectively, when the threshold was set at 5.5. The results of this study emphasize that age, ACCI, and postoperative pneumonia are key risk factors affecting the survival of elderly patients with hip fracture at 1-year postoperatively. ACCI, as an effective predictive tool, can provide an important reference for the clinical assessment of patients' postoperative risk and help precision medical decision-making.

The heart rate on admission was associated with the mortality in elderly patients with hip fractures: a retrospective cohort study from a trauma centre in northwestern China

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the association between heart rate on admission and mortality in elderly patients with hip fractures.

DESIGN

A retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

At a trauma centre in northwestern China.

PARTICIPANTS

Elderly patients with hip fractures.

RESULTS

This cohort study included 2006 patients who met the study criteria. The mean heart rate at admission was 81.77±15.63 beats per minute. During follow-up, 189 patients died for all-cause reasons in 1 year. Age, coronary heart disease, cancer, dementia and time to operation were introduced in multivariate regression analysis. Multivariate logistic regression showed that heart rate was associated with mortality in geriatric patients with hip fracture (OR=1.01, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.02, p=0.0242). However, the linear association was unstable, and we found a nonlinear one. In the nonlinear association, the inflection point was 84 beats per minute. If below this threshold, each 1 beat per minute increase in heart rate was associated with a 4% increase in the risk of death (OR=1.04, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.06, p=0.0017). If greater than this threshold, the risk of death peaked and was not associated with the heart rate (OR=1.00, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.01, p=0.6691).

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, the heart rate was nonlinearly associated with 1-year mortality in geriatric patients with hip fractures. The low heart rate on admission was associated with low 1-year mortality. When the heart rate was over 84 beats per minute, the risk of death peaked, and there was no association with heart rate anymore.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

This study was registered on the website of the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (ChiCTR: ChiCTR2200057323).

The association between preoperative serum cholinesterase and all-cause mortality in geriatric patients with hip fractures: a cohort study of 2387 patients

OBJECTIVE

This study is to evaluate the association between preoperative cholinesterase levels and all-cause mortality in geriatric hip fractures.

METHODS

Elderly patients with hip fractures were screened between Jan 2015 and Sep 2019. Demographic and clinical characteristics of patients were collected. Linear and nonlinear multivariate Cox regression models were used to identify the association between preoperative cholinesterase levels and mortality in these patients. Analyses were performed using EmpowerStats and the R software.

RESULTS

Two thousand three hundred eighty-seven patients were included in this study. The mean follow-up period was 37.64 months. Seven hundred eighty-seven (33.0%) patients died due to all-cause mortality. Preoperative cholinesterase levels were 5910 ± 1700 U/L. Linear multivariate Cox regression models showed that preoperative cholinesterase level was associated with mortality (HR = 0.83, 95% CI: 0.78-0.88), P < 0.0001) for every 1000 U/L. However, the linear association was unstable, and nonlinearity was identified. A cholinesterase concentration of 5940 U/L was an inflection point. When preoperative cholinesterase level < 5940 U/L, the mortality decreased by 28% for every 1000 U/L increase in cholinesterase (HR = 0.72, 95%CI: 0.66-0.79, P < 0.0001). When cholinesterase was > 5940 U/L, the mortality was no longer decreased with the rise of cholinesterase (HR = 1.01, 95%CI: 0.91-1.11, P = 0.9157). We found the nonlinear association was very stable in the propensity score-matching sensitive analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Preoperative cholinesterase levels were nonlinearly associated with mortality in elderly hip fractures, and cholinesterase was a risk indicator of all-cause mortality.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

This study is registered on the website of the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (ChiCTR: ChiCTR2200057323) (08/03/2022).

Assessment of Surgical and Non-surgical Outcomes in Patients with Dementia and Hip Fractures

INTRODUCTION

The aging population is associated with increased osteoporosis and risk of hip fractures. Cognitive decline has recorded exponential increases in the last decades, with the rise in life expectancy.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We conducted a prospective study on 65 patients over 65 years old associated with dementia and hip fractures. We used pre-and post-treatment variables such as age, type of fracture, type of treatment, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), EQ-5D-5L score, and the Harris hip score (HHS) to assess pain, mobility, and mortality. We performed follow-ups at 6 months, 1 year, 2 years, and 3 years.

RESULTS

Patients with dementia typically arrive at the hospital without any previous analgesic treatment and receive lower doses due to poor pain recognition. The 6-month mortality rate was 48.22% and increased to 78.46% at 3 years. The best survival rates were in patients with bipolar prosthesis and Gamma nails, with a 3-year survival rate of 40% and 50%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with dementia have a higher mortality rate compared to cognitively intact patients and the treatment decisions require a multidisciplinary team and individualized recommendations for each patient, due to high surgical risk in the elderly.

Association of comorbidities with postoperative walking independence in patients with hip fractures: a single-center, retrospective, observational study

Hip fractures (HFs) are common in the elderly and lead to decreased walking independence. Although comorbidities may be associated with gaining walking independence, few studies have comprehensively examined baseline and preoperative clinical factors. We aimed to evaluate the effects of comorbidities on the postoperative walking independence of patients with HFs. This single-center, retrospective, observational study included patients with HFs admitted to an acute care hospital between 1 May 2022 and 1 March 2023, who before the incident were able to walk independently [functional independence measure (FIM) walk score ≥6 points]. Postoperative walking independence was evaluated using the walk item of the FIM. The Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) was used to evaluate comorbidities at admission, and the patients were divided into two categories with CCI scores of 0 points and ≥1 point. The effect of comorbidities, assessed using the CCI, on postoperative walking independence was evaluated using Cox proportional hazards analysis. Ninety-four participants were included in the analysis. The Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for potential confounders (age, operative delay and nutritional status) revealed that the CCI was significantly associated with postoperative walking independence ( P < 0.05). The hazard ratio and 95% confidence interval (CI) for the CCI for postoperative walking independence were 0.40 (95% CI, 0.189-0.865). Preoperative assessment of comorbidities using the CCI may aid in predicting the postoperative walking independence of patients with HFs.

The association between prealbumin concentration at admission and mortality in elderly patients with hip fractures: a cohort study

Malnutrition is associated with complications and mortality in patients of hip fracture. Prealbumin may be more suitable than albumin to accurately predict the prognosis of hip fracture in elderly patients. We found that prealbumin concentration was nonlinearly associated with mortality in elderly patients with hip fracture, and an inflection point effect was observed.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the association between prealbumin concentration at admission and mortality in elderly patients with hip fractures.

METHODS

Elderly patients with hip fractures were screened between Jan 2015 and Sep 2019. Demographic and clinical characteristics of the patients were collected. Linear and nonlinear multivariate Cox regression models were used to identify the association between prealbumin concentration at admission and mortality. All analyses were performed using EmpowerStats and the R software.

RESULTS

This cohort study included 2387 patients who met the study criteria. The mean follow-up was 37.64 months. The prealbumin concentration was 162.67 ± 43.2 mg/L. Multivariate Cox regression showed that prealbumin concentration was associated with mortality in geriatric patients with hip fracture (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.95, 95% confidence intervals [CI]: 0.93-0.97, P < 0.0001). In addition, an inflection point effect was observed in the nonlinear association. The inflection point was 162.2 mg/L. If it is less than this inflection point, then every 10 mg/L increase in prealbumin was associated with a 7% reduction in the risk of death (HR = 0.93, 95%CI: 0.90-0.96, P < 0.0001). When greater than the inflection point, there was no difference in the risk of death (HR = 0.99, 95%CI: 0.95-1.03, P = 0.5127).

CONCLUSION

The prealbumin concentrations at admission were nonlinearly associated with long-term mortality in geriatric hip fractures, and 162.2 mg/L could be considered a prognostic factor of mortality risk.

Comparing Preoperative Screening Tools for Elective Urologic Cancer Surgery: Insights from a Cluster Analysis

INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study was to evaluate the features and benefits of different geriatric screening tools for enhancing the perioperative care of patients who undergo elective cancer surgery using cluster analysis.

METHODS

This study was a retrospective, observational analysis of 1,019 consecutive patients who had elective major cancer surgery in the urology department of our hospital from October 2019 to January 2023. Before the surgery, a trained nurse screened the patients using six tools: Eastern Clinical Oncology Group performance status (ECOG-PS), flemish version of the triage risk screening tool (fTRST), geriatric-8 (G8), instrumental activities of daily living, patient health questionnaire-2 (PHQ-2), and simple questionnaire to rapidly diagnose sarcopenia (SARC-F). The study grouped the patients into four clusters based on their scores on these tools and compared their outcomes after the surgery. The outcomes included overall survival, ambulation failure, delirium, and severe complications. The study also examined how each screening tool was associated with the outcomes.

RESULTS

Based on their clinical data and screening results, we classified the patients into four groups: Healthy (73%), Depressive (11%), Intermediate (11%), and Unhealthy (5%). The Unhealthy group had the worst outcomes in overall survival (OS), ambulation failure, and delirium, followed by the Intermediate group. In addition, fTRST and SARC-F emerged as significant predictors of OS; ECOG-PS, fTRST, G8, and SARC-F of ambulation failure; ECOG-PS, fTRST, and G8 of delirium; and G8 of severe complications.

CONCLUSION

Various geriatric screening tools were found to have the potential to forecast diverse postoperative outcomes.

Aspirin prophylaxis is not associated with increased risk of venous thromboembolism in arthroplasty for femoral neck fractures: a non-inferiority study

PURPOSE

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a known complication of hip arthroplasty for femoral neck fractures (FNF) with various prophylactic anticoagulants utilized to decrease risk. The purpose of this study was to assess the efficacy and perioperative outcomes associated with aspirin for VTE prophylaxis following arthroplasty for FNF.

METHODS

Medical records of 1,220 patients who underwent hip hemiarthroplasty (HHA) or total hip arthroplasty (THA) at an urban academic center from 2011 to 2022 were retrospectively reviewed. Patient characteristics and perioperative outcomes, including length of stay (LOS), VTE, 90-day hospital encounters, and discharge disposition, were collected. Outcomes for patients prescribed aspirin (n = 214) were compared to those prescribed non-aspirin VTE prophylaxis (n = 1006) using propensity score matching.

RESULTS

Patients who received aspirin had higher rates of THA (36.0 vs 26.7%; p = 0.008). There were no significant risk-adjusted differences in the incidence of VTE (0.5 vs 0.5%, p = 1.000) and 90-day readmissions (10.4 vs 12.3%, p = 0.646) between patients prescribed aspirin and non-aspirin VTE prophylaxis, respectively. Patients prescribed non-aspirin agents had higher rates of non-home discharge (73.9 vs 58.5%; p < 0.001) and longer LOS (143.5 vs 124.9 h; p = 0.005). Sub-analysis of patients prescribed aspirin and non-aspirin prophylaxis based on comorbidity scores demonstrated no difference in VTE incidence for low (0.0 vs 1.6%, p = 1.000) and high scores (0.0 vs 0.0%, p = 1.000), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Aspirin is not associated with increased incidence of VTE after HHA or THA for FNF. Aspirin prophylaxis should be considered in hip fracture patients to mitigate bleeding risk, particularly those with low to intermediate VTE risk.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level III, Retrospective study.

Predicting Risk of 30-day Postoperative Morbidity Using the Pathologic Fracture Mortality Index

INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the ability of the Pathologic Fracture Mortality Index (PFMI) to predict the risk of 30-day morbidity after pathologic fracture fixation and compare its efficacy with those of the American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status, modified Charlson Comorbidity Index (mCCI), and modified frailty index (mFI-5).

METHODS

Cohorts of 1,723 patients in the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database from 2005 to 2020 and 159 patients from a tertiary cancer referral center who underwent fixation for impending or completed pathologic fractures of long bones were retrospectively analyzed. National Surgical Quality Improvement Program morbidity variables were categorized into medical, surgical, utilization, and all-cause. PFMI, ASA, mCCI, and mFI-5 scores were calculated for each patient. Area under the curve (AUC) was used to compare efficacies.

RESULTS

AUCs predicting all-cause morbidity were 0.62, 0.54, and 0.56 for the PFMI, ASA, and mFI-5, respectively. The PFMI outperformed the ASA and mFI-5 in predicting all-cause ( P < 0.01), medical ( P = 0.01), and utilization ( P < 0.01) morbidities. In the 2005 to 2012 subset, the PFMI outperformed the ASA, mFI-5, and mCCI in predicting all-cause ( P = 0.01), medical ( P = 0.03), and surgical ( P = 0.05) morbidities but performed similarly to utilization morbidity ( P = 0.19). In our institutional cohort, the AUC for the PFMI in morbidity stratification was 0.68. The PFMI was associated with all-cause (odds ratio [OR], 1.30; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12 to 1.51; P < 0.001), medical (OR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.40; P = 0.046), and utilization (OR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.14 to 1.52; P < 0.001) morbidities but not significantly associated with surgical morbidity (OR, 1.21; 95% CI, 0.98 to 1.49; P = 0.08) in this cohort.

DISCUSSION

The PFMI is an advancement in postoperative morbidity risk stratification of patients with pathologic fracture from metastatic disease.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

III.

Timing of Adverse Events Within 90 Days of Hip Fracture Surgery: A Database Study

INTRODUCTION

Hip fracture surgery is associated with notable morbidity. Understanding the timing of adverse events can inform strategies for prevention and management. Owing to database limitations, many studies have limited postoperative follow-up to 30 days. However, adverse events may not have plateaued by this time. This study evaluated adverse events after hip fracture surgery out to 90 days.

METHODS

Hip fracture surgeries in patients 65 years or older were identified in the 2010 to 2020 Q3 M91Ortho PearlDiver data set using administrative codes. The 90-day incidence and time of diagnosis of 10 common adverse events were determined and used to calculate median, interquartile range, and middle 80% for time of diagnosis. The number of events occurring before and after 30 days was also determined.

RESULTS

A total of 258,834 hip fracture surgery patients were identified. On average, 70% of adverse events occurred in postoperative days 0 to 30 and 30% occurred in days 31 to 90. The percentage of events in days 31 to 90 ranged from 8% (transfusion) to 42% (wound dehiscence). Compared with patients with a 0- to 30-day adverse event, those with 31- to 90-day adverse events had higher average Elixhauser Comorbidity Index scores (8.6 vs. 7.8, P < 0.001) and a slightly greater proportion of men (31.5% vs. 30.2%, P < 0.001).For specific adverse events, the time of diagnosis (median; interquartile range; middle 80%) were as follows: transfusion (2 days; 1 to 4 days; 1 to 24 days), acute kidney injury (5; 2 to 26; 1 to 55), cardiac event (9; 3 to 35; 1 to 64), urinary tract infection (13; 3 to 39; 1 to 65), hematoma (14; 6 to 28; 3 to 52), pneumonia (15; 5 to 39; 2 to 66), venous thromboembolism (16; 5 to 40; 2 to 64), surgical site infection (23; 14 to 37; 7 to 56), sepsis (24; 9 to 48; 3 to 71), and wound dehiscence (26; 15 to 41; 7 to 64).

DISCUSSION

Nearly one-third of 90-day adverse events after hip fracture surgery were found to occur after postoperative day 30. An understanding of the timing of adverse events is important for improving patient counseling and optimizing patient care.

The association between hemoglobin at admission and mortality of older patients with hip fracture: a mean 3-year follow-up cohort study

BACKGROUND

Hip fracture patients often have a large drop in hemoglobin (Hgb) concentration that is associated with the initial trauma. However, there is no study of a correlation between Hgb concentration at admission and short-term mortality. Thus, we evaluated a possible linear and nonlinear association between Hgb and mortalityfor older patients with hip fracture.

METHODS

Consecutive older patients who had hip fractures were screened between January 2015 and September 2019. Demographic and clinical characteristics were collected. Linear and nonlinear multivariate Cox regression models were used to identify association between Hgb at admission and mortality. All analyses were performed with EmpowerStats and R software.

RESULTS

Two thousand five hundred eighty-nine patients were included in the study. There were 849 men and 1740 women. The mean age was 79.6 ± 6.8 years. The mean follow-up was 39.0 months. Nine hundred seven (35.0%) patients died for all-cause reasons. The mean Hgb at admission was 11.07 ± 1.95 g/dL. Linear multivariate Cox regression models showed Hgb at admission was associated with mortality ([Hazard Ratio] HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.87-0.95, P < 0.0001) after adjusting for confounding factors. However, the linear association was unstable, and nonlinearity was found between Hgb at admission and mortality. The Hgb concentration of 9.8 g/dL was an inflection point. A Hgb at admission < 9.8 g/dL was associated with mortality (HR 0.81, 95% CI 0.74-0.89, P < 0.0001), whereas > 9.8 g/dL was not a risk factor for mortality (HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.92-1.04, P = 0.4730).

CONCLUSIONS

The Hgb concentration at admission was nonlinearly associated with mortality of older patients with hip fracture, and Hgb at admission < 9.8 g/dL was a risk predictor of 3-year mortality.

RESEARCH REGISTRATION

ChiCTR2200057323.

Free-flap reconstruction of the lower limb in octogenarians - A comparative analysis of indications, management, and outcomes

INTRODUCTION

Impaired microcirculation, along with an increase in chronic medical conditions in the geriatric cohort, may favor the development of soft-tissue defects in the lower extremity and equally impair the options for plastic-reconstructive surgery. In particular, outcome analyses in the increasing patient cohort ≥ 80 years (octogenarians) are limited.

METHODS

Setting 80 years as the cutoff, we conducted an age-related outcome analysis of all patients undergoing free-flap reconstruction of the lower extremity from 2014 to 2020, comprising the American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score and Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) as the possible outcome predicting factors.

RESULTS

During the study period, a total of 424 free flaps were performed in 385 patients (∅: 54.7 years ± 16.1; range: 9-89), including 19 octogenarians. Compared with the younger patient cohort, there was a significantly higher rate of early flap revision (p = 0.023) and flap loss (p = 0.028). Furthermore, the mean length of hospital (60.6 ± 37.6 vs. 51.1 ± 37.0) and intensive care unit/intermediate care stay (6.5 ± 15.0 vs. 3.5 ± 8.5) was extended (n.s.). The ASA score presented an independent predictor for major surgical [odds ratio (OR): 1.66; p = 0.041) and medical complications (OR: 3.97; p<0.001). Neither the CCI nor the ASA served as an independent predictor for total flap loss.

CONCLUSION

Free-flap reconstruction of the lower extremity in octogenarians is associated with a higher risk of flap revision and flap loss. Considering the prolonged immobilization associated with increased morbidity following limb amputation, it presents still a reasonable option to achieve limb salvage in carefully chosen patients. An adequate tool to predict the success of free-flap survival is still unavailable.

Age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index predicts postoperative mortality in elderly patients with hip fracture: A prospective cohort

Background

This study aimed to evaluate the clinical association between the age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index (aCCI) and postoperative mortality in elderly patients.

Materials and methods

Elderly patients with hip fractures were screened from January 2015 to September 2019. After demographic and clinical characteristics were collected, linear and non-linear multivariate Cox regression models were used to identify the association between the aCCI and mortality. All analyses were performed using EmpowerStats and R software.

Results

A total of 2,657 patients were included in the study, and the mean follow-up duration was of 38.97 months. The mean aCCI score was 4.24 ± 1.09, and 977 (34.14%) died of all-cause mortality. The fully-adjusted linear multivariate Cox regression models showed the aCCI to be associated with mortality [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.31, 95% confidence interval (CI):1.21-1.41, P < 0.0001]. Patients in Q2 showed greater mortality (HR = 1.60, 95% CI: 1.23-2.09; P = 0.0005) than those in Q1; patients in Q3 showed greater mortality (HR = 2.18, 95% CI: 1.66-2.87; P < 0.001) than those in Q1. In addition, the P-value for the trend also showed a linear association in the three models (P < 0.0001). In the sensitivity analysis, propensity score matching was used, and the results were stable.

Conclusion

The mortality risk of hip fractures increased by 31% when the aCCI increased by one unit. aCCI score was shown to be a good predictor of three-year mortality following hip fracture.

Clinical trial registration

http://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=152919, identifier ChiCTR2200057323.

Effect of the Age-Adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index on All-Cause Mortality and Readmission in Older Surgical Patients: A National Multicenter, Prospective Cohort Study

Background

Identifying a high-risk group of older people before surgical procedures is very important. The study aimed to explore the association between the age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index (ACCI) and all-cause mortality and readmission among older Chinese surgical patients (age ≥65 years).

Methods

A large-scale cohort study was performed in 25 general public hospitals from six different geographic regions of China. Trained registered nurses gathered data on clinical and sociodemographic characteristics. All-cause mortality was recorded when patients died during hospitalization or during the 90-day follow-up period. Readmission was also tracked from hospital discharge to the 90-day follow-up. The ACCI, in assessing comorbidities, was categorized into two groups (≥5 vs. &lt;5). A multiple regression model was used to examine the association between the ACCI and all-cause mortality and readmission.

Results

There were 3,911 older surgical patients (mean = 72.46, SD = 6.22) in our study, with 1,934 (49.45%) males. The average ACCI score was 4.77 (SD = 1.99), and all-cause mortality was 2.51% (high ACCI = 5.06% vs. low ACCI = 0.66%, P &lt; 0.001). After controlling for all potential confounders, the ACCI score was an independent risk factor for 90-day hospital readmission (OR = 1.18, 95% CI: 1.14, 1.23) and 90-day all-cause mortality (OR = 1.26, 95% CI: 1.16–1.36). Furthermore, older surgical patients with a high ACCI (≥5) had an increased risk of all-cause mortality (OR = 6.13, 95% CI: 3.17, 11.85) and readmission (OR = 2.13, 95% CI: 1.78, 2.56) compared to those with a low ACCI (&lt;5). The discrimination performance of the ACCI was moderate for mortality (AUC:0.758, 95% CI: 0.715–0.80; specificity = 0.591, sensitivity = 0.846) but poor for readmission (AUC: 0.627, 95% CI: 0.605–0.648; specificity = 0.620; sensitivity = 0.590).

Conclusions

The ACCI is an independent risk factor for all-cause mortality and hospital readmission among older Chinese surgical patients and could be a potential risk assessment tool to stratify high-risk older patients for surgical procedures.