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Austin TR, Nethander M, Fink HA, Törnqvist AE, Jalal DI, Buzkova P, Barzilay JI, Carbone L, Gabrielsen ME, Grahnemo L, Lu T, Hveem K, Jonasson C, Kizer JR, Langhammer A, Mukamal KJ, Gerszten RE, Psaty BM, Robbins JA, Sun YV, Skogholt AH, Kanis JA, Johansson H, Åsvold BO, Valderrabano RJ, Zheng J, Richards JB, Coward E, Ohlsson C. A plasma protein-based risk score to predict hip fractures. NATURE AGING 2024:10.1038/s43587-024-00639-7. [PMID: 38802582 DOI: 10.1038/s43587-024-00639-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/17/2024] [Accepted: 05/01/2024] [Indexed: 05/29/2024]
Abstract
As there are effective treatments to reduce hip fractures, identification of patients at high risk of hip fracture is important to inform efficient intervention strategies. To obtain a new tool for hip fracture prediction, we developed a protein-based risk score in the Cardiovascular Health Study using an aptamer-based proteomic platform. The proteomic risk score predicted incident hip fractures and improved hip fracture discrimination in two Trøndelag Health Study validation cohorts using the same aptamer-based platform. When transferred to an antibody-based proteomic platform in a UK Biobank validation cohort, the proteomic risk score was strongly associated with hip fractures (hazard ratio per s.d. increase, 1.64; 95% confidence interval 1.53-1.77). The proteomic risk score, but not available polygenic risk scores for fractures or bone mineral density, improved the C-index beyond the fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX), which integrates information from clinical risk factors (C-index, FRAX 0.735 versus FRAX + proteomic risk score 0.776). The developed proteomic risk score constitutes a new tool for stratifying patients according to hip fracture risk; however, its improvement in hip fracture discrimination is modest and its clinical utility beyond FRAX with information on femoral neck bone mineral density remains to be determined.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thomas R Austin
- Cardiovascular Health Research Unit, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, US
| | - Maria Nethander
- Department of Internal Medicine and Clinical Nutrition, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Osteoporosis Centre, Centre for Bone and Arthritis Research at the Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
- Bioinformatics and Data Center, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Howard A Fink
- Geriatric Research Education and Clinical Center, VA Health Care System, Minneapolis, MN, US
- Department of Medicine, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, US
| | - Anna E Törnqvist
- Department of Internal Medicine and Clinical Nutrition, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Osteoporosis Centre, Centre for Bone and Arthritis Research at the Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Diana I Jalal
- Division of Nephrology, Department of Internal Medicine, Carver College of Medicine, Iowa City, IA, US
- Iowa City VA Medical Center, Iowa City, IA, US
| | - Petra Buzkova
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, US
| | - Joshua I Barzilay
- Division of Endocrinology, Kaiser Permanente of Georgia, Atlanta, GA, US
| | - Laura Carbone
- Charlie Norwood VAMC, Augusta, GA, US
- Division of Rheumatology, Department of Medicine, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta University, Augusta, GA, US
| | - Maiken E Gabrielsen
- HUNT Center for Molecular and Clinical Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Nursing, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Louise Grahnemo
- Department of Internal Medicine and Clinical Nutrition, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Osteoporosis Centre, Centre for Bone and Arthritis Research at the Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Tianyuan Lu
- Lady Davis Institute for Medical Research, Jewish General Hospital, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
- Quantitative Life Sciences Program, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
- 5 Prime Sciences Inc, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | - Kristian Hveem
- HUNT Center for Molecular and Clinical Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Nursing, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
- HUNT Research Centre, NTNU, Levanger, Norway
- Levanger Hospital, Nord-Trøndelag Hospital Trust, Levanger, Norway
| | - Christian Jonasson
- HUNT Center for Molecular and Clinical Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Nursing, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Jorge R Kizer
- Cardiology Section, San Francisco VA Health Care System, San Francisco, CA, US
- Department of Medicine, Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, US
| | - Arnulf Langhammer
- HUNT Research Centre, NTNU, Levanger, Norway
- Levanger Hospital, Nord-Trøndelag Hospital Trust, Levanger, Norway
| | - Kenneth J Mukamal
- Department of Medicine, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Brookline, MA, US
| | - Robert E Gerszten
- Department of Medicine, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Brookline, MA, US
| | - Bruce M Psaty
- Cardiovascular Health Research Unit, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, US
- Departments of Medicine, Epidemiology, and Health Systems and Population Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, US
| | - John A Robbins
- Department of Medicine, University of California, Davis, CA, US
| | - Yan V Sun
- Department of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, US
| | - Anne Heidi Skogholt
- HUNT Center for Molecular and Clinical Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Nursing, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - John A Kanis
- Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Sheffield, UK
- Mary McKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Helena Johansson
- Department of Internal Medicine and Clinical Nutrition, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Osteoporosis Centre, Centre for Bone and Arthritis Research at the Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
- Mary McKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Bjørn Olav Åsvold
- HUNT Center for Molecular and Clinical Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Nursing, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
- Department of Endocrinology, Clinic of Medicine, St. Olavs Hospital, Trondheim University Hospital, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Rodrigo J Valderrabano
- Research Program in Men's Health, Aging and Metabolism, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, US
| | - Jie Zheng
- Department of Endocrine and Metabolic Diseases, Shanghai Institute of Endocrine and Metabolic Diseases, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
- Shanghai National Clinical Research Center for metabolic Diseases, Key Laboratory for Endocrine and Metabolic Diseases of the National Health Commission of the PR China, Shanghai Key Laboratory for Endocrine Tumor, Shanghai Digital Medicine Innovation Center, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
- MRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit (IEU), Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Oakfield House, Oakfield Grove, Bristol, UK
| | - J Brent Richards
- Lady Davis Institute for Medical Research, Jewish General Hospital, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
- Quantitative Life Sciences Program, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
- Department of Human Genetics, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
- Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
- Department of Medicine, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
- Department of Twin Research, King's College London, London, UK
| | - Eivind Coward
- HUNT Center for Molecular and Clinical Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Nursing, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Claes Ohlsson
- Department of Internal Medicine and Clinical Nutrition, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Osteoporosis Centre, Centre for Bone and Arthritis Research at the Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden.
- Region Västra Götaland, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Department of Drug Treatment, Gothenburg, Sweden.
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Yang L, Dempsey M, Brennan A, Whelan B, Erjiang E, Wang T, Egan R, Gorham K, Heaney F, Armstrong C, Ibarrola GM, Gsel A, Yu M, Carey JJ. Ireland DXA-FRAX may differ significantly and substantially to Web-FRAX. Arch Osteoporos 2023; 18:43. [PMID: 36939937 PMCID: PMC10027809 DOI: 10.1007/s11657-023-01232-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/08/2022] [Accepted: 03/07/2023] [Indexed: 03/21/2023]
Abstract
Appropriate use of FRAX reduces the number of people requiring DXA scans, while contemporaneously determining those most at risk. We compared the results of FRAX with and without inclusion of BMD. It suggests clinicians to carefully consider the importance of BMD inclusion in fracture risk estimation or interpretation in individual patients. PURPOSE FRAX is a widely accepted tool to estimate the 10-year risk of hip and major osteoporotic fracture in adults. Prior calibration studies suggest this works similarly with or without the inclusion of bone mineral density (BMD). The purpose of the study is to compare within-subject differences between FRAX estimations derived using DXA and Web software with and without the inclusion of BMD. METHOD A convenience cohort was used for this cross-sectional study, consisting of 1254 men and women aged between 40 and 90 years who had a DXA scan and complete validated data available for analysis. FRAX 10-year estimations for hip and major osteoporotic fracture were calculated using DXA software (DXA-FRAX) and the Web tool (Web-FRAX), with and without BMD. Agreements between estimates within each individual subject were examined using Bland-Altman plots. We performed exploratory analyses of the characteristics of those with very discordant results. RESULTS Overall median DXA-FRAX and Web-FRAX 10-year hip and major osteoporotic fracture risk estimations which include BMD are very similar: 2.9% vs. 2.8% and 11.0% vs. 11% respectively. However, both are significantly lower than those obtained without BMD: 4.9% and 14% respectively, P < 0.001. Within-subject differences between hip fracture estimates with and without BMD were < 3% in 57% of cases, between 3 and 6% in 19% of cases, and > 6% in 24% of cases, while for major osteoporotic fractures such differences are < 10% in 82% of cases, between 10 and 20% in 15% of cases, and > 20% in 3% of cases. CONCLUSIONS Although there is excellent agreement between the Web-FRAX and DXA-FRAX tools when BMD is incorporated, sometimes there are very large differences for individuals between results obtained with and without BMD. Clinicians should carefully consider the importance of BMD inclusion in FRAX estimations when assessing individual patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lan Yang
- Insight SFI Research Centre for Data Analytics, Data Science Institute, University of Galway, IDA Business Park, Lower Dangan, Galway, H91 AEX4, Ireland.
| | - Mary Dempsey
- School of Engineering, College of Science and Engineering, University of Galway, Galway, Ireland
| | - Attracta Brennan
- School of Computer Science, College of Science and Engineering, University of Galway, Galway, Ireland
| | - Bryan Whelan
- School of Medicine, College of Medicine, Nursing and Health Sciences, University of Galway, Galway, Ireland
| | - E Erjiang
- School of Management, Guangxi Minzu University, Nanning, China
| | - Tingyan Wang
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Rebecca Egan
- Department of Rheumatology, Galway University Hospitals, Galway, Ireland
| | - Kelly Gorham
- Department of Rheumatology, Galway University Hospitals, Galway, Ireland
| | - Fiona Heaney
- Department of Rheumatology, Galway University Hospitals, Galway, Ireland
| | | | | | - Amina Gsel
- Department of Rheumatology, Galway University Hospitals, Galway, Ireland
| | - Ming Yu
- Department of Industrial Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - John J Carey
- School of Medicine, College of Medicine, Nursing and Health Sciences, University of Galway, Galway, Ireland
- Department of Rheumatology, Galway University Hospitals, Galway, Ireland
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