Prediction of organ involvement and survival in systemic sclerosis patients in the first 5 years from diagnosis

Heterogeneity of determining disease severity, clinical course and outcomes in systemic sclerosis-associated interstitial lung disease: a systematic literature review

Objective The course of systemic sclerosis-associated interstitial lung disease (SSc-ILD) is highly variable and different from continuously progressive idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). Most proposed definitions of progressive pulmonary fibrosis or SSc-ILD severity are based on the research data from patients with IPF and are not validated for patients with SSc-ILD. Our study aimed to gather the current evidence for severity, progression and outcomes of SSc-ILD.Methods A systematic literature review to search for definitions of severity, progression and outcomes recorded for SSc-ILD was performed according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines in Medline, Embase, Web of Science and Cochrane Library up to 1 August 2023.Results A total of 9054 papers were reviewed and 342 were finally included. The most frequent tools used for the definition of SSc-ILD progression and severity were combined changes of carbon monoxide diffusing capacity (DLCO) and forced vital capacity (FVC), isolated FVC or DLCO changes, high-resolution CT (HRCT) extension and composite algorithms including pulmonary function test, clinical signs and HRCT data. Mortality was the most frequently reported long-term event, both from all causes or ILD related.Conclusions The studies presenting definitions of SSc-ILD 'progression', 'severity' and 'outcome' show a large heterogeneity. These results emphasise the need for developing a standardised, consensus definition of severe SSc-ILD, to link a disease specific definition of progression as a surrogate outcome for clinical trials and clinical practice.PROSPERO registration number CRD42022379254.Cite Now.

Systemic sclerosis associated interstitial lung disease: a conceptual framework for subclinical, clinical and progressive disease

OBJECTIVES

To establish a framework by which experts define disease subsets in systemic sclerosis associated interstitial lung disease (SSc-ILD).

METHODS

A conceptual framework for subclinical, clinical and progressive ILD was provided to 83 experts, asking them to use the framework and classify actual SSc-ILD patients. Each patient profile was designed to be classified by at least four experts in terms of severity and risk of progression at baseline; progression was based on 1-year follow-up data. A consensus was reached if ≥75% of experts agreed. Experts provided information on which items were important in determining classification.

RESULTS

Forty-four experts (53%) completed the survey. Consensus was achieved on the dimensions of severity (75%, 60 of 80 profiles), risk of progression (71%, 57 of 80 profiles) and progressive ILD (60%, 24 of 40 profiles). For profiles achieving consensus, most were classified as clinical ILD (92%), low risk (54%) and stable (71%). Severity and disease progression overlapped in terms of framework items that were most influential in classifying patients (forced vital capacity, extent of lung involvement on high resolution chest CT [HRCT]); risk of progression was influenced primarily by disease duration.

CONCLUSIONS

Using our proposed conceptual framework, international experts were able to achieve a consensus on classifying SSc-ILD patients along the dimensions of disease severity, risk of progression and progression over time. Experts rely on similar items when classifying disease severity and progression: a combination of spirometry and gas exchange and quantitative HRCT.

Phenotype of limited cutaneous systemic sclerosis patients with positive anti-topoisomerase I antibodies: data from the EUSTAR cohort

OBJECTIVES

To characterize patients with positive anti-topoisomerase I (ATA) in lcSSc.

METHODS

SSc patients enrolled in the EUSTAR cohort with a disease duration of ≤3 years at database entry were considered. We assessed the risk of major organ involvement in the following groups: ATA-lcSSc vs ACA-lcSSc and vs ANA without specificity (ANA)-lcSSc, and ATA-lcSSc vs ATA-dcSSc. Cox regression models with time-dependent covariates were performed with the following outcomes: new-onset interstitial lung disease (ILD), ILD progression [forced vital capacity (FVC) decline ≥10% and ≥5% vs values at ILD diagnosis), primary myocardial involvement (PMI), pulmonary hypertension (PH), any organ involvement and all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

We included 1252 patients [194 ATA-lcSSc (15.5%)], with 7.7 years (s.d. 3.5) of follow-up. ILD risk was higher in ATA-lcSSc vs ACA- and ANA-lcSSc and similar to ATA-dcSSc, although with less frequent restrictive lung disease. The risk of FVC decline ≥10% (35% of ATA-lcSSc) was lower in ATA-lcSSc than in ATA-dcSSc, whereas FVC decline ≥5% occurs similarly between ATA-lcSSc (58% of patients) and other SSc subsets, including ATA-dcSSc. The risk of PMI was similar in ATA-lcSSc and ANA-lcSSc but lower than in ACA-lcSSc; no difference in PH and mortality risk was observed among lcSSc subsets. The risk of any organ involvement, PMI and PH was lower and the mortality tended to be lower in ATA-lcSSc vs ATA-dcSSc.

CONCLUSION

ATA-lcSSc patients have a high risk of ILD, albeit with a lower risk of progression compared with ATA-dcSSc, supporting careful screening for ILD in this subgroup.

Predictors of progression to systemic sclerosis: Analysis of Very Early Disease of Systemic Sclerosis (VEDOSS) in a large single cohort

OBJECTIVE

This study analyzed the Very Early Disease of Systemic Sclerosis (VEDOSS) characteristics in a group of 217 patients with Raynaud phenomenon (RP) and at least one manifestation of systemic sclerosis (SSc) in search of predictors for the progression to SSc.

METHODS

This is a cross-sectional single-center analysis of patients presenting RP with a specific SSc clinical manifestation or SSc autoantibody or SD pattern at nailfold capillaroscopy (SD-NFC), without skin involvement, who attended a scleroderma outpatient clinic between 2010 and 2019. The performance of VEDOSS and the importance of the combination of VEDOSS characteristics to predict the progression to SSc were evaluated.

RESULTS

Among 217 patients, 153 (70.5%) were classified as SSc, including 65 (30%) in the first investigation; 69.3% of the SSc patients met VEDOSS criteria, compared with 6.3% of patients who did not progress to SSc. The combinations most associated with progression to SSc were RP + puffy fingers (PF) + positive antinuclear antibodies (ANA) + (SD-NFC and/or SSc specific antibody) (VEDOSS level 2), with an odds ratio (OR) of 19.52 (95%CI 4.48-85.06; p< 0.001) and RP + PF + positive ANA (VEDOSS level 1; "red flags") (OR = 15.45; p< 0.001), while combinations without non-Raynaud clinical symptoms, as RP + SD-NFC (OR = 0.03; p< 0.001) and RP + anticentromere + SD-NFC (OR = 0.06; p= 0.006) were associated with non-progression to SSc.

CONCLUSION

Among patients with RP with at least one manifestation of SSc, without skin involvement, combinations of VEDOSS characteristics were the strongest predictors of progression to SSc at a median follow-up of 4 years.

Sine scleroderma, limited cutaneous, and diffused cutaneous systemic sclerosis survival and predictors of mortality

BACKGROUND

Systemic sclerosis (SSc) is associated with a variability of mortality rates in the literature.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the mortality and its predictors in a long-term follow-up of a bi-centric cohort of SSc patients.

METHODS

A retrospective observational study by systematically analyzing the medical records of patients diagnosed with SSc in Toulouse University Hospital and Ducuing Hospital. Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR), mortality at 1, 3, 5, 10, and 15 years of disease and causes of death were described. Predictors of mortality using Cox regression were assessed.

RESULTS

Three hundred seventy-five patients were included: 63 with diffuse cutaneous SSc, 279 with limited cutaneous SSc, and 33 with sine scleroderma. The SMR ratio was 1.88 (95% CI 1.46-1.97). The overall survival rates were 97.6% at 1 year, 93.4% at 3 years, 87.1% at 5 years, 77.9% at 10 years, and 61.3% at 15 years. Sixty-nine deaths were recorded. 46.4% were SSc related deaths secondary to interstitial lung disease (ILD) (34.4%), pulmonary hypertension (31.2%), and digestive tract involvement (18.8%). 53.6% were non-related to SSc: cardiovascular disorders (37.8%) and various infections (35.1%) largely distanced those from cancer (13.5%). Four significant independent predictive factors were identified: carbon monoxide diffusing capacity (DLCO) < 70% (HR=3.01; p=0.0053), C-reactive protein (CRP) >5 mg/l (HR=2.13; p=0.0174), cardiac involvement (HR=2.86; p=0.0012), and the fact of being male (HR=3.25; p=0.0004).

CONCLUSION

Long-term data confirmed high mortality of SSc. Male sex, DLCO <70%, cardiac involvement, and CRP> 5mg/l were identified as independent predictors of mortality.