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Zhang H, Zhang X, Li X, Xu Q, Yuan Y, Hu Z, Zhao Y, Liu Y, Zhang Y, Lei H. Development and Validation of a Predictive Nomogram for Venous Thromboembolism Risk in Multiple Myeloma Patients: A Single-Center Cohort Study in China. Biomedicines 2025; 13:770. [PMID: 40299376 PMCID: PMC12025081 DOI: 10.3390/biomedicines13040770] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/21/2025] [Revised: 03/05/2025] [Accepted: 03/19/2025] [Indexed: 04/30/2025] Open
Abstract
Objectives: Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a significant complication in patients with multiple myeloma (MM) that adversely affects morbidity, mortality, and treatment outcomes. This study aimed to develop and validate a predictive nomogram for assessing VTE risk in MM patients using clinicopathological factors. Methods: Clinical data, including 25 candidate risk factors, were collected. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify independent risk factors for VTE. The nomogram was constructed using these variables, and its performance was evaluated by plotting receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calculating the area under the curve (AUC), and conducting calibration and decision curve analysis (DCA). Additionally, an online calculator was developed for clinical use. Results: In total, 148 patients (17.5%) developed VTE in this study. The independent risk factors included age, Karnofsky performance status (KPS), anticoagulation therapy, erythropoietin use, and hemoglobin (Hb), platelet (PLT), calcium (Ca), activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), and D-dimer levels. The nomogram demonstrated robust discriminative ability, with a C-index of 0.811 in the training cohort and 0.714 in the validation cohort. The calibration curves exhibited a high level of agreement between the predicted and observed probabilities. DCA confirmed the nomogram's clinical utility across various threshold ranges, outperforming the "treat all" and "treat none" strategies. Conclusions: This study successfully developed and validated a nomogram for predicting VTE risk in MM patients, demonstrating substantial predictive accuracy and clinical applicability. The nomogram and accompanying online calculator provide valuable tools for individualized VTE risk assessment and informed clinical decision-making.
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Affiliation(s)
- Haolin Zhang
- Chongqing Cancer Multi-Omics Big Data Application Engineering Research Center, Chongqing University Cancer Hospital, Chongqing 400030, China; (H.Z.); (Q.X.); (Y.Y.)
| | - Xi Zhang
- Chongqing Key Laboratory of Translational Research for Cancer Metastasis and Individualized Treatment, Chongqing University Cancer Hospital, Chongqing 400030, China; (X.Z.); (X.L.); (Y.Z.); (Y.L.)
| | - Xiaosheng Li
- Chongqing Key Laboratory of Translational Research for Cancer Metastasis and Individualized Treatment, Chongqing University Cancer Hospital, Chongqing 400030, China; (X.Z.); (X.L.); (Y.Z.); (Y.L.)
| | - Qianjie Xu
- Chongqing Cancer Multi-Omics Big Data Application Engineering Research Center, Chongqing University Cancer Hospital, Chongqing 400030, China; (H.Z.); (Q.X.); (Y.Y.)
| | - Yuliang Yuan
- Chongqing Cancer Multi-Omics Big Data Application Engineering Research Center, Chongqing University Cancer Hospital, Chongqing 400030, China; (H.Z.); (Q.X.); (Y.Y.)
| | - Zuhai Hu
- Department of Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing 400016, China;
| | - Yulan Zhao
- Chongqing Key Laboratory of Translational Research for Cancer Metastasis and Individualized Treatment, Chongqing University Cancer Hospital, Chongqing 400030, China; (X.Z.); (X.L.); (Y.Z.); (Y.L.)
| | - Yao Liu
- Chongqing Key Laboratory of Translational Research for Cancer Metastasis and Individualized Treatment, Chongqing University Cancer Hospital, Chongqing 400030, China; (X.Z.); (X.L.); (Y.Z.); (Y.L.)
| | - Yunyun Zhang
- Chongqing Key Laboratory of Translational Research for Cancer Metastasis and Individualized Treatment, Chongqing University Cancer Hospital, Chongqing 400030, China; (X.Z.); (X.L.); (Y.Z.); (Y.L.)
| | - Haike Lei
- Chongqing Cancer Multi-Omics Big Data Application Engineering Research Center, Chongqing University Cancer Hospital, Chongqing 400030, China; (H.Z.); (Q.X.); (Y.Y.)
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Alikhan R, Gomez K, Maraveyas A, Noble S, Young A, Thomas M. Cancer-associated venous thrombosis in adults (second edition): A British Society for Haematology Guideline. Br J Haematol 2024; 205:71-87. [PMID: 38664942 DOI: 10.1111/bjh.19414] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/17/2024] [Revised: 03/08/2024] [Accepted: 03/11/2024] [Indexed: 07/13/2024]
Abstract
A shared decision on the most appropriate agent for the treatment of cancer-associated thrombosis should consider the following factors, which should be reassessed as patients continue along their cancer care pathway: risk of bleeding; tumour site; suitability of oral medications; potential for drug-drug interactions; and patient preference and values regarding choice of drug. Continuing anticoagulation beyond 6 months in patients with cancer-associated venous thromboembolism and active cancer is recommended.
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Affiliation(s)
- Raza Alikhan
- University Hospital of Wales, Cardiff, UK
- Division of Population Medicine, Cardiff University School of Medicine, Cardiff, UK
| | - Keith Gomez
- Haemophilia Centre and Thrombosis Unit, Royal Free London NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK
| | - Anthony Maraveyas
- Centre for Clinical Sciences, The Hull York Medical School, York, UK
| | - Simon Noble
- Division of Population Medicine, Cardiff University School of Medicine, Cardiff, UK
| | - Annie Young
- Warwick Medical School, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK
| | - Mari Thomas
- University College London Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK
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Bao L, Fang LJ, Xiao MY, Lu MQ, Chu B, Shi L, Gao S, Xiang QQ, Wang YT, Liu X, Ding YH, Xin Z, Chen Y, Wang MZ, Hu WK, Guo CY, Chen LY, Sun K. Validation of the IMPEDE VTE score for prediction of venous thromboembolism in Chinese patients with multiple myeloma: A single-center retrospective cohort study. Thromb Res 2024; 236:130-135. [PMID: 38430904 DOI: 10.1016/j.thromres.2024.02.011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/20/2023] [Revised: 02/11/2024] [Accepted: 02/13/2024] [Indexed: 03/05/2024]
Abstract
Multiple myeloma (MM) significantly increases the risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) within 6 months of treatment initiation. The IMPEDE VTE score is a VTE risk prediction model which is recently incorporated into the National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) guidelines, but it lacks validation among Asians, including Chinese MM patients. We performed a retrospective chart review of 405 Chinese with newly diagnosed MM who started therapy at Beijing Jishuitan Hospital between April 2013 to October 2022. The 6-month cumulative incidence of VTE was 3.8 % (95 % CI:1.6-7.6), 8.6 % (95 % CI: 5.3-21.9) and 40.5 % (95 % CI: 24.9-55.7) in the low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups (P < 0.001), respectively. The C-statistic of the IMPEDE VTE scores for predicting VTE within 6 months of treatment initiation was 0.74 (95 % CI: 0.65-0.83). Of note, in this single-center cohort study, we propose that the anticoagulant LMWH may be more effective than the antiplatelet aspirin in potentially preventing VTE in newly diagnosed MM patients. Our findings suggest that the IMPEDE VTE score is a valid evidence-based risk stratification tool in Chinese patients with newly diagnosed MM.
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Affiliation(s)
- Li Bao
- Department of Hematology, Beijing Jishuitan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
| | - Li-Juan Fang
- Department of Hematology, Beijing Jishuitan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Meng-Yu Xiao
- Peking University People's Hospital, Peking University Institute of Hematology, Collaborative Innovation Center of Hematology, National Clinical Research Center for Hematologic Disease, Beijing Key Laboratory of Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation, Beijing, China
| | - Min-Qiu Lu
- Department of Hematology, Beijing Jishuitan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Bin Chu
- Department of Hematology, Beijing Jishuitan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Lei Shi
- Department of Hematology, Beijing Jishuitan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Shan Gao
- Department of Hematology, Beijing Jishuitan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Qiu-Qing Xiang
- Department of Hematology, Beijing Jishuitan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Yu-Tong Wang
- Department of Hematology, Beijing Jishuitan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Xi Liu
- Department of Hematology, Beijing Jishuitan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Yue-Hua Ding
- Department of Hematology, Beijing Jishuitan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Zhao Xin
- Department of Hematology, Beijing Jishuitan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Yuan Chen
- Department of Hematology, Beijing Jishuitan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Meng-Zhen Wang
- Department of Hematology, Beijing Jishuitan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Wei-Kai Hu
- Department of Hematology, Beijing Jishuitan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Cheng-Yu Guo
- Department of Hematology, Beijing Jishuitan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Ling-Yun Chen
- Department of Hematology, Beijing Jishuitan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Kai Sun
- Department of Hematology, Beijing Jishuitan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
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