Morice AH. Correlation and causality: a COVID-19 conundrum.
Eur Respir J 2020;
56:13993003.03174-2020. [PMID:
32859679 PMCID:
PMC7453735 DOI:
10.1183/13993003.03174-2020]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/17/2020] [Accepted: 08/17/2020] [Indexed: 11/05/2022]
Abstract
I read with interest the two contributions by J.D. Chalmers and co-workers to the July issue of the European Respiratory Journal. In a reply to correspondence concerning the inhaled corticosteroid withdrawal controversy in COPD [1], they suggest that A. Agusti succumbs to the fallacy of post hoc, ergo, propter hoc [2], i.e. A occurred, then B occurred: therefore, A caused B. However, as we know, correlation is not causality.
Predictive models depend heavily on the assumptions made in their constructionhttps://bit.ly/2Eex05F
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