Application of Portsmouth modification of physiological and operative severity scoring system for enumeration of morbidity and mortality (P-POSSUM) in pancreatic surgery

Preoperative nutritional support in patients undergoing pancreatic surgery affects PREPARE score accuracy

Background

This study aimed to validate the accuracy of the Preoperative Pancreatic Resection (PREPARE) risk score in pancreatic resection patients.

Patients and methods

This prospective study included 216 patients who underwent pancreatic resection between January 2015 and December 2018. All patients in our cohort with weight loss or lack of appetite received dietary advice and preoperative oral nutritional supplementation (600 kcal/day). Demographic, clinicopathological, operative, and postoperative data were collected prospectively. The PREPARE score and the predicted risk of major complications were computed for each patient. Differences in major postoperative complications were analyzed using a multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model. The predicted and observed risks of major complications were tested using the C-statistic.

Results

The study included 216 patients [117 men (54.2%)] with a median age of 65.0 (30.0-83.0) years. The majority of patients were classified as American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA)' Physical Status score II (N = 164/216; 75.9%) and as "low risk" PREPARE score (N = 185/216; 85.6%) before the surgery. Only 4 (1.9%) patients were malnourished, with albumin levels of less than 3.5 g/dl. The most common type of pancreatic resection was a pylorus-preserving pancreaticoduodenectomy (N = 122/216; 56.5%). Major morbidity and 30-day mortality rates were 11.1% and 1.9%, respectively. The type of surgical procedure (hazard ratio [HR]: 3.849; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.208-12.264) and ASA score (HR: 3.089; 95% CI: 1.067-8.947) were significantly associated with the incidence of major postoperative complications in multivariate analysis. The receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.657 for incremental values and 0.559 for risk categories, indicating a weak predictive model.

Conclusion

The results of the present study suggest that the PREPARE risk score has low accuracy in predicting the risk of major complications in patients with consistent preoperative nutritional support. This limits the use of PREPARE risk score in future preoperative clinical routines.

The new SUMPOT to predict postoperative complications using an Artificial Neural Network

An accurate assessment of preoperative risk may improve use of hospital resources and reduce morbidity and mortality in high-risk surgical patients. This study aims at implementing an automated surgical risk calculator based on Artificial Neural Network technology to identify patients at risk for postoperative complications. We developed the new SUMPOT based on risk factors previously used in other scoring systems and tested it in a cohort of 560 surgical patients undergoing elective or emergency procedures and subsequently admitted to intensive care units, high-dependency units or standard wards. The whole dataset was divided into a training set, to train the predictive model, and a testing set, to assess generalization performance. The effectiveness of the Artificial Neural Network is a measure of the accuracy in detecting those patients who will develop postoperative complications. A total of 560 surgical patients entered the analysis. Among them, 77 patients (13.7%) suffered from one or more postoperative complications (PoCs), while 483 patients (86.3%) did not. The trained Artificial Neural Network returned an average classification accuracy of 90% in the testing set. Specifically, classification accuracy was 90.2% in the control group (46 patients out of 51 were correctly classified) and 88.9% in the PoC group (8 patients out of 9 were correctly classified). The Artificial Neural Network showed good performance in predicting presence/absence of postoperative complications, suggesting its potential value for perioperative management of surgical patients. Further clinical studies are required to confirm its applicability in routine clinical practice.

The accuracy of pre-operative (P)-POSSUM scoring and cardiopulmonary exercise testing in predicting morbidity and mortality after pancreatic and liver surgery: A systematic review

Background

Cardiopulmonary exercise-testing (CPET) and the (Portsmouth) Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity ((P)-POSSUM) are used as pre-operative risk stratification and audit tools in general surgery, however, both have been demonstrated to have limitations in major hepatopancreatobiliary (HPB) surgery.

Materials and methods

The aim of this review is to determine if CPET and (P)-POSSUM scoring systems accurately predict morbidity and mortality. Eligible articles were identified with an electronic database search. Analysis according to surgery type and tool used was performed.

Results

Twenty-five studies were included in the final review. POSSUM predicted morbidity demonstrated weighted O/E ratios of 0.75(95%CI0.57–0.97) in hepatic surgery and 0.85(95%CI0.8–0.9) in pancreatic surgery. P-POSSUM predicted mortality in pancreatic surgery demonstrated an O/E ratio of 0.75(95%CI0.27–2.13) and 0.94(95%CI0.57–1.55) in hepatic surgery. In both pancreatic and hepatic surgery an anaerobic threshold(AT) of between 9 0.5–11.5 ml/kg/min was predictive of post-operative complications, and in pancreatic surgery ventilatory equivalence of carbon dioxide(˙VE/˙VCO2) was predictive of 30-day mortality.

Conclusion

POSSUM demonstrates an overall lack of predictive fit for morbidity, whilst CPET variables provide some predictive power for post-operative outcomes. Development of a new HPB specific risk prediction tool would be beneficial; the combination of parameters from POSSUM and CPET, alongside HPB specific markers could overcome current limitations.

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Current pre-operative scoring for pancreatic and liver surgery is inaccurate.

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In pancreatic and liver surgery anaerobic threshold scores were predictive of complications.

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In pancreatic surgery ventilatory equivalence of carbon dioxide was predictive of mortality.

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P-POSSUM is inaccurate for predicting mortality and morbidity in pancreatic surgery.

The Impact of Surgeon Volume on Outcomes After Pancreaticoduodenectomy: a Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Despite significant improvement in operative mortality rates following pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD), morbidity remains high. Outcomes following PD may be improved in high-volume centers and with high-volume surgeons. We sought to evaluate the association between surgeon experience and postoperative outcomes after PD.

METHODS

An online database search of MEDLINE and EMBASE was performed; key bibliographies were reviewed. Studies comparing operative outcomes of high-volume surgeon (HVS) and low-volume surgeon (LVS) performing PD were included. Odds ratios with the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) by random fixed effects models of pooled data were calculated. Definition of HVS varied among the studies, ranging from 6 to >20 PD/year. The primary endpoint was 30-day mortality, and secondary outcomes were complication rates, length of stay (LOS), hospital costs, and readmission rates. Study quality was assessed using STROBE (Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology) criteria.

RESULTS

Search strategy yielded 360 publications. Eleven studies met the inclusion criteria comprising 36,449 patients. Among these patients, 12,512 (34.3%) PDs were performed by HVS and 23,937 (65.7%) by LVS. Meta-analysis of included studies showed that HVS had significantly lower mortality rates than LVS (2.4 vs. 6.7%, OR 2.88; 95% CI 2.51-3.27, p < 0.001). They also had significantly lower overall complication rates (36.3 vs. 50.3%, OR 1.71; 95% CI 1.62-1.81, p < 0.001), hospital costs (range $10,818-141,322 vs. $12,114-198,678, OR 0.13; 95% CI 0.07-0.19, p < 0.001), and LOS (range 11-35 vs. 14-38 days, OR 2.86; 95% CI 2.03-3.68, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

HVS performing PD have significantly better outcomes than LVS in terms of decreased mortality, morbidity, LOS, and hospital costs. Efforts toward increased regionalization of care should be discussed. Consensus regarding definition of HVS needs to be undertaken.

Physiological and operative severity score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity scoring systems for assessment of patient outcome and impact of surgeons' and anesthesiologists' performance in hepatopancreaticobiliary surgery

Context:

The physiological and operative severity score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) is a scoring system used to predict morbidity and mortality.

Aims:

We compared the physiological and operative risk, the expected morbidity and mortality, and the observed postoperative mortality among patients operated by different surgeons and anesthetized by different anesthesiologists.

Settings and Design:

This was a retrospective, single center study.

Subjects and Methods:

The anesthetic records of 159 patients who underwent hepatopancreaticobiliary surgery were analyzed for the physiological and operative severity, POSSUM morbidity, POSSUM and Portsmouth POSSUM (P-POSSUM) mortality scoring systems, observed mortality in 30-days, 3, 6, and 12 months postoperatively, duration of surgery, and units of packed red blood cells (PRBC) transfused. These variables were compared among patients operated by five different surgeons and anesthetized by seven different anesthesiologists.

Statistical Analysis:

One-way analysis of variance was used for normally and Kruskal–Wallis test for nonnormally distributed responses. Differences in percentages of postoperative mortality were assessed by Chi-squared test.

Results:

The physiological severity, POSSUM morbidity, POSSUM and P-POSSUM mortality scores, and observed mortality at 1, 3, 6, and 12 months postoperatively did not differ among patients operated by different surgeons and anesthetized by different anesthesiologists. Duration of surgery (P < 0.001), PRBC units transfused (P = 0.002), and operative severity (P = 0.001) differed significantly among patients operated by different surgeons.

Conclusions:

The physiological severity score, POSSUM and P-POSSUM scores did not differ among patients operated by different surgeons and anesthetized by different anesthesiologists. The different operative severity scores did not influence the observed mortality in the postoperative period.

Does adding ICU data to the POSSUM score improve the prediction of outcomes following surgery for upper gastrointestinal malignancies?

Surgery for upper gastrointestinal malignancy carries a high postoperative mortality and morbidity risk. The importance of preoperative physiological reserve and intraoperative events in determining clinical outcomes is recognised in the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) score that comprises variables relevant to both phases. Whether adding variables linked to ICU admission characteristics improves the predictive capacity of POSSUM is unclear, especially in an Australian/New Zealand healthcare context. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive capacity of the POSSUM score for 30-day mortality and in-hospital morbidity in 80 patients undergoing resection of oesophageal (28%), gastric (26%) or pancreatic (46%) malignancies and admitted to ICU. The 30-day mortality was 8.8% and 65% of patients developed some postoperative complication. Receiver operating characteristics generated an area under the curve (95% CI) to predict mortality by Portsmouth POSSUM of 0.87 (0.77 to 0.93) and morbidity by POSSUM of 0.67 (0.55 to 0.77). Multiple regression analysis including biochemical variables and vital signs on admission to ICU identified renal function parameters, fluid balance and need for cardiorespiratory support beyond the first postoperative day as independent factors associated with mortality and morbidity (in addition to the POSSUM score) but the inclusion of these variables in a logistic regression model did not significantly improve the predictive capacity for mortality (to area under the curve 0.93 [0.85 to 0.97]) or morbidity (to area under the curve 0.67 [0.55 to 0.78]). In conclusion, the POSSUM score provides clinically useful predictive capacity in patients undergoing surgery for upper gastrointestinal malignancies. The incorporation of ICU admission variables to the pre- and intraoperative POSSUM variables did not significantly enhance the precision.

Assessing surgical quality: comparison of general and procedure-specific morbidity estimation models for the risk adjustment of pancreaticoduodenectomy outcomes

INTRODUCTION

The use of outcomes to evaluate surgical quality implies the need for detailed risk adjustment. The physiological and operative severity score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) is a generally applicable risk adjustment model suitable for pancreatic surgery. A pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD)-specific intraoperative pancreatic risk assessment (IPRA) estimates the risk of postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) and associated morbidity based on factors that are not incorporated into POSSUM.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the study was to compare the risk estimations of POSSUM and IPRA in patients undergoing PD.

METHODS

An observational single-center cohort study was conducted including 195 patients undergoing PD in 2008-2010. POSSUM and IPRA data were recorded prospectively. Incidence and severity of postoperative morbidity was recorded according to established definitions. The cohort was grouped by POSSUM and IPRA risk groups. The estimated and observed outcomes and morbidity profiles of POSSUM and IPRA were scrutinized.

RESULTS

POSSUM-estimated risk (62 %) corresponded with observed total morbidity (65 %). Severe morbidity was 17 % and in-hospital-mortality 3.1 %. Individual and grouped POSSUM risk estimates did not reveal associations with incidence (p = 0.637) or severity (p = 0.321) of total morbidity or POPF. The IPRA model identified patients with high POPF risk (p < 0.001), but was even associated with incidence (p < 0.001) and severity (p < 0.001) of total morbidity.

CONCLUSION

The risk factors defined by a PD-specific model were significantly stronger predictive indicators for the incidence and severity of postoperative morbidity than the factors incorporated in POSSUM. If available, reliable procedure-specific risk factors should be utilized in the risk adjustment of surgical outcomes. For pancreatic surgery, generally applicable tools such as POSSUM still have to prove their relevance.

Implementation and preliminary validation of a new score that predicts post-operative complications

BACKGROUND

An accurate pre-operative risk assessment could reduce morbidity and mortality for high-risk surgical patients. The aim of the study was to implement and preliminary validate a new score that could predict the occurrence of post-operative complications (PoCs): the Anesthesiological and Surgical Postoperative Risk Assessment (ASPRA) score.

METHODS

The ASPRA score was created through a literature's review; a score of 1-3 was given to each identified risk factor, according to its statistical correlation with PoC. ASPRA was retrospectively applied to a derivation set of 176 surgical patients. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis evaluated the discriminating ability of the score and cutoff value in predicting the occurrence of PoCs, according to the Clavien-Dindo classification of surgical complications. The statistical validation of the score and related cutoff values was prospectively ran within a validation set of 1928 surgical patients.

RESULTS

Through ROC analysis, an ASPRA score of 7 was chosen as the cutoff value in the derivation set. In the validation set, 65.3% of patients presented a PoC (Clavien ≥ 1). In this group, ROC analysis showed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.72, and although potentially related to the high rate of complications a high positive predictive value of 87.0% has been observed. No significant differences were found in ROC-AUC, sensitivity, specificity, or positive or negative predictive value between the derivation and validation sets (P > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

The new ASPRA score has a high positive predictive value to predict the occurrence of PoCs. Further prospective studies are required to confirm these results.

Preoperative Pancreatic Resection (PREPARE) score: a prospective multicenter-based morbidity risk score

OBJECTIVES

Development of a simple preoperative risk score to predict morbidity related to pancreatic surgery.

BACKGROUND

Pancreatic surgery is standardized with little technical diversity among institutions and unchanging morbidity and mortality rates in recent years. Preoperative identification of high-risk patients is potentially one of the rare avenues for improving the clinical course of patients undergoing pancreatic surgery.

METHODS

Using a prospectively collected multicenter database of patients undergoing pancreatic surgery (n=703), surgical complications were classified according to the Clavien-Dindo classification. A new scoring system for preoperative identification of high-risk patients that included only objective preoperatively assessable variables was developed using a multivariate regression model. Subsequently, this scoring system was prospectively validated from 2011 to 2013 (n=429) in a multicenter setting.

RESULTS

Eight independent preoperatively assessable variables were identified and included in the scoring system: systolic blood pressure, heart rate, hemoglobin level, albumin level, ASA (American Society of Anesthesiologists) score, surgical procedure, elective surgery or not, and disease of pancreatic origin or not. On the basis of 3 subgroups (low risk, intermediate risk, high risk), the proposed scoring system reached an accuracy of 75% for correctly predicting occurrence or nonoccurrence of major surgical complications in 80% of all analyzed patients within the validation cohort (c-statistic index=0.709, P<0.001, 95% confidence interval=0.657-0.760).

CONCLUSIONS

We present an easily applied scoring system with convincing accuracy for identifying low-risk and high-risk patients. In contrast to other systems, the score is exclusively based on objective preoperatively assessable characteristics and can be rapidly and easily calculated.

Value of general surgical risk models for predicting postoperative morbidity and mortality in pancreatic resections for pancreatobiliary carcinomas

BACKGROUND

The present study evaluated the utility of general surgical risk models to predict postoperative morbidity and mortality in the specialty field of pancreatic resections for pancreatobiliary carcinomas.

METHODS

We investigated Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS), its modified version (mE-PASS), and Portsmouth Physiologic and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (P-POSSUM) in 231 patients undergoing pancreatoduodenectomy or distal pancreatectomy (Group A). We also analyzed E-PASS and mE-PASS in another cohort of the same procedures (Group B, n = 313).

RESULTS

Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for detecting in-hospital mortality in Group A were moderate at 0.75 for E-PASS, 0.69 for mE-PASS, and 0.69 for P-POSSUM. The predicted mortality rates of the models significantly correlated with severity of postoperative complications (ρ = 0.17, P = 0.011 for E-PASS; ρ = 0.15, and P = 0.027 for P-POSSUM). The AUCs were also moderate in Group B at 0.68 for E-PASS and 0.69 for mE-PASS. The predicted mortality rates significantly correlated with severity of postoperative complications (ρ = 0.18, P = 0.0018 for E-PASS; ρ = 0.17, and P = 0.0022 for mE-PASS).

CONCLUSIONS

The present study suggests that the predictive powers of general risk models may be moderate in pancreatic resections. A novel model would be desirable for these procedures.

Pre-operative cardiopulmonary exercise testing predicts adverse post-operative events and non-progression to adjuvant therapy after major pancreatic surgery

BACKGROUND

Surgery followed by chemotherapy is the primary modality of cure for patients with resectable pancreatic cancer but is associated with significant morbidity. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the role of cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) in predicting post-operative adverse events and fitness for chemotherapy after major pancreatic surgery.

METHODS

Patients who underwent a pancreaticoduodenectomy or total pancreatectomy for pancreatic head lesions and had undergone pre-operative CPET were included in this retrospective study. Data on patient demographics, comorbidity and results of pre-operative evaluation were collected. Post-operative adverse events, hospital stay and receipt of adjuvant therapy were outcome measures.

RESULTS

One hundred patients were included. Patients with an anaerobic threshold less than 10 ml/kg/min had a significantly greater incidence of a post-operative pancreatic fistula [International Study Group for Pancreatic Surgery (ISGPS) Grades A-C, 35.4% versus 16%, P = 0.028] and major intra-abdominal abscesses [Clavien-Dindo (CD) Grades III-V, 22.4% versus 7.8%, P = 0.042] and were less likely to receive adjuvant therapy [hazard ratio (HR) 6.30, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.25-31.75, P = 0.026]. A low anaerobic threshold was also associated with a prolonged hospital stay (median 20 versus 14 days, P = 0.005) but not with other adverse events.

DISCUSSION

CPET predicts a post-operative pancreatic fistula, major intra-abdominal abscesses as well as length of hospital stay after major pancreatic surgery. Patients with a low anaerobic threshold are less likely to receive adjuvant therapy.

POSSUM and P-POSSUM as predictors of postoperative morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing hepato-biliary-pancreatic surgery: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Physiologic and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) models are used extensively to predict postoperative morbidity and mortality in general surgery. The aim was to undertake the first meta-analysis of the predictive value of these models in patients undergoing hepato-biliary-pancreatic surgery.

METHODS

Eligible articles were identified by searches of electronic databases from 1991 to 2012. All data were specific to hepato-biliary-pancreatic surgery. Predictive value of morbidity and mortality were assessed by calculating weighted observed to expected (O/E) ratios. Subanalysis was also performed.

RESULTS

Sixteen studies were included in final review. The morbidity analysis included nine studies on POSSUM with a weighted O/E ratio of 0.78 [95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.68-0.88]. The mortality analysis included seven studies on POSSUM and nine studies on P-POSSUM (Portsmouth predictor equation for mortality). Weighted O/E ratios for mortality were 0.35 (95 % CI 0.17-0.54) for POSSUM and 0.95 (95 % CI 0.65-1.25) for P-POSSUM. POSSUM had more accuracy to predict morbidity after pancreatic surgery (O/E ratio 0.82; 95 % CI 0.72-0.92) than after hepatobiliary surgery (O/E ratio 0.66; 95 % CI 0.57-0.74), in large sample size studies (O/E ratio 0.90; 95 % CI 0.85-0.96) than in small sample size studies (O/E ratio 0.69; 95 % CI 0.59-0.79).

CONCLUSIONS

POSSUM overpredicted postoperative morbidity after hepato-biliary-pancreatic surgery. Predictive value of POSSUM to morbidity was affected by the type of surgery and the sample size of studies. Compared with POSSUM, P-POSSUM was more accurate for predicting postoperative mortality. Modifications to POSSUM and P-POSSUM are needed for audit in hepato-biliary-pancreatic surgery.

A systematic review of the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity and its Portsmouth modification as predictors of post-operative morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing pancreatic surgery

BACKGROUND

The Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) model and its Portsmouth modification (P-POSSUM) are used extensively to predict postoperative mortality and morbidity in general surgery. The aim of this study was to undertake the first systematic review of the predictive value of these models in patients undergoing pancreatic surgery.

METHODS

Eligible articles were identified by searches of electronic databases for those published from 1991 to 2012. Two independent reviewers assessed each study against inclusion and exclusion criteria. All data were specific to pancreatic surgery. Predictive value of morbidity and mortality were assessed by calculating observed/expected ratios.

RESULTS

Nine studies were included in the final review. The morbidity analysis included 8 studies (1,734 patients) of POSSUM with a weighted observed/expected ratio of .85. The mortality analysis included 5 studies (936 patients) of POSSUM and 4 studies (716 patients) of P-POSSUM. Weighted observed/expected ratios for mortality were .35 for POSSUM and 1.39 for P-POSSUM.

CONCLUSIONS

POSSUM overpredicted postoperative morbidity in patients undergoing pancreatic surgery. Both POSSUM and P-POSSUM failed to offer significant predictive value for mortality in pancreatic surgery, and more data collection in large populations undergoing pancreatic surgery are needed.

Double bypass for inoperable pancreatic malignancy at laparotomy: postoperative complications and long-term outcome

INTRODUCTION

Between 4% and 13% of patients with operable pancreatic malignancy are found unresectable at the time of surgery. Double bypass is a good option for fit patients but it is associated with a high risk of postoperative complications. The aim of this study was to identify pre-operatively which patients undergoing double bypass are at high risk of complications and to assess their long-term outcome.

METHODS

Of the 576 patients undergoing pancreatic resections between 2006 and 2011, 50 patients who underwent a laparotomy for a planned pancreaticoduodenectomy had a double bypass procedure for inoperable disease. Demographic data, risk factors for postoperative complications and pre-operative anaesthetic assessment data including the Portsmouth Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (P-POSSUM) and cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) were collected.

RESULTS

Fifty patients (33 men and 17 women) were included in the study. The median patient age was 64 years (range: 39-79 years). The complication rate was 50% and the in-hospital mortality rate was 4%. The P-POSSUM physiology subscore and low anaerobic threshold at CPET were significantly associated with postoperative complications (p =0.005 and p =0.016 respectively) but they were unable to predict them. Overall long-term survival was significantly shorter in patients with postoperative complications (9 vs 18 months). Postoperative complications were independently associated with poorer long-term survival (p =0.003, odds ratio: 3.261).

CONCLUSIONS

P-POSSUM and CPET are associated with postoperative complications but the possibility of using them for risk prediction requires further research. However, postoperative complications following double bypass have a significant impact on long-term survival and this type of surgery should therefore only be performed in specialised centres.

Effects of low cardiopulmonary reserve on pancreatic leak following pancreaticoduodenectomy

Background

Postoperative complications are increased in patients with reduced cardiopulmonary reserve undergoing major surgery. Pancreatic leak is an important contributor to postoperative complications and death following pancreaticoduodenectomy. The aim of this study was to determine whether reduced cardiopulmonary reserve was a risk factor for pancreatic leak.

Methods

All patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy between January 2006 and July 2010 were identified from a prospectively held database. Data analysis was restricted to those who underwent cardiopulmonary exercise testing during preoperative assessment. Pancreatic leak was defined as grade A, B or C according to the International Study Group on Pancreatic Fistula definition. An anaerobic threshold (AT) cut-off value of 10·1 ml per kg per min was used to identify patients with reduced cardiopulmonary reserve. Univariable and multivariable analyses were performed to identify other risk factors for pancreatic leak.

Results

Some 67 men and 57 women with a median age of 66 (range 37–82) years were identified. Low AT was significantly associated with pancreatic leak (45 versus 19·2 per cent in patients with greater cardiopulmonary reserve; P = 0·020), postoperative complications (70 versus 38·5 per cent; P = 0·013) and prolonged hospital stay (29·4 versus 17·5 days; P = 0·001). On multivariable analysis, an AT of 10·1 ml per kg per min or less was the only independent factor associated with pancreatic leak.

Conclusion

Low cardiopulmonary reserve was associated with pancreatic leak following pancreaticoduodenectomy. AT seems a useful tool for stratifying the risk of postoperative complications.

A prognostic score to predict major complications after pancreaticoduodenectomy

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a simple prognostic score to predict major postoperative complications after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD).

BACKGROUND

PD still carries a high rate of severe postoperative complications. No specific score is currently available to stratify the patient's risk of major morbidity.

METHODS

Between 2002 and 2010, preoperative, intraoperative, and outcome data from 700 consecutive patients undergoing PD in our institution were prospectively collected in an electronic database. Major complications were defined as levels III to V of Clavien-Dindo classification. On the basis of a multivariate regression model, the score was developed using a random two-thirds of the population (n = 469) and was validated on the remaining 231 patients.

RESULTS

Major complication rate was 16.7% (117/700). Significant predictors included in the scoring system were: pancreas texture, pancreatic duct diameter, operative blood loss, and ASA score. The mean risk of developing major postoperative complications was 7% in patients with score 0 to 3, 13% in patients with score 4 to 7, 23% in patients with score 8 to 11, and 36% in patients with score 12 to 15. In the validation population, the predicted risk of major complications was 15.2% versus a 16.9% observed risk (C-statistic index = 0.743).

CONCLUSION

This new score may accurately predict a patient's postoperative outcome. Early identification of high-risk patients could help the surgeon to adopt intraoperative and postoperative strategies tailored on individual basis.

Sociodemographics and comorbidities influence decisions to undergo pancreatic resection for neoplastic lesions

INTRODUCTION

Pancreatic resection is being performed with increasing frequency and safety. Technical outcomes and long-term survival for neoplastic lesions are well reported; however, reasons why patients do not undergo surgery for potentially resectable lesions are not well understood. The aim of this study was to determine the factors contributing to the decision not to operate for resectable pancreatic neoplasms.

METHODS

From 2004 to 2008, all patients with resectable pancreatic neoplasms at a single high-volume hepatopancreaticobiliary center were evaluated. The impact of patient factors, sociodemographics, medical comorbidities (Charlson combined comorbidity index (CCI) and ACCI), disease factors (tumor characteristics), and surgical factors (type of resection required) on the decision to undergo pancreatectomy were analyzed using univariate and multivariate binary logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

Three hundred seventy-five patients with resectable pancreatic lesions were identified. The median age was 62 years (21-93); 203 out of 375 (54.1%) were males. Fifty-five (14.7%) did not undergo resection. On univariate analysis, age (odds ratio (OR) 1.116, p < 0.001), non-English speaking background (NESB; OR 4.276, p = 0.001), tumor type (p = 0.001 increased for cystic neoplasms including intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm), CCI score (OR 1.239, p = 0.001), and ACCI score (OR 1.433, p < 0.001) were associated with an increased risk of not undergoing resection. Gender, age, marital status, and urban residence were not predictive. On multivariate analysis, NESB (p = 0.018) and the ACCI (p = 0.002) remained predictive of not undergoing resection. The majority of patients did not undergo surgery because the patient declined in 25 out of 55 (45.5%), and resection was not offered in 15 out of 55 (27.3%). In the remainder, medical contraindications precluded surgery. Advanced age, tumor type, comorbidities (27.3%), age (21.8%), surgical risk (29.1%), frailty (18.2%), and uncertain diagnosis (5.5%) were cited as reasons for not proceeding with surgery.

CONCLUSION

Patients with a higher ACCI and those from a NESB are less likely to undergo surgery for resectable neoplastic lesions of the pancreas. These factors must be taken into consideration in the decision-making process when considering surgery for patients with pancreatic neoplasms. Novel strategies should be employed to optimize access to surgery for patients with resectable pancreatic neoplasms.

Evaluation of POSSUM in predicting post-operative morbidity in patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy

The Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) is a predictive scoring system for post-operative morbidity. The present study assessed the value of POSSUM in predicting post-operative morbidity following pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). POSSUM scores were prospectively calculated for 265 consecutive cases of PD performed between 2005 and 2007. Expected morbidity was estimated based on POSSUM scores and was compared with observed morbidity. Patients were also stratified into one of four groups based on their individual POSSUM scores and subsequent risk of morbidity. Mean expected morbidity was 43.81% (116 cases) and mean observed morbidity was 39.62% (105 cases) (no statistically significant difference). It is concluded that the POSSUM scoring system has high value for predicting the risk of morbidity in PD patients.

Patient-related risk factors for postoperative adverse events

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The risk of adverse outcome in patients undergoing major surgery is affected both by cardiorespiratory fitness, and the presence and severity of comorbidities. Accurate risk stratification is essential for the identification of patients who may benefit from specific perioperative management strategies or from an augmented level of perioperative care. Risk stratification techniques include risk prediction models, assessment of functional capacity and novel biochemical markers. This review examines the evidence for the use of these different techniques in perioperative patients.

RECENT FINDINGS

There remains considerable variation in the predictive ability of risk stratification models, in part due to the subjective nature of some of the component variables. Whereas a basic assessment of functional capacity using structured questionnaires may be helpful, in patients thought to be at high risk, the most accurate technique may be cardiopulmonary exercise testing, although the strength of the hypothesized relationship between functional capacity and perioperative outcome has not been fully defined. There have been advances in the identification and refinement of biochemical markers for risk prediction, in particular, brain natriuretic peptide and C-reactive protein. Currently, few centres routinely systematically utilize these strategies to risk stratify perioperative patients.

SUMMARY

The development of improved risk stratification techniques would be assisted by large-scale epidemiological studies. Improvements to currently used risk prediction models are likely to result from the use of variables which more objectively measure patient health and fitness than current tools, and may use a combination of all the above techniques to improve predictive accuracy.

Evaluation of POSSUM for patients undergoing pancreatoduodenectomy

Background

Comparison of operative morbidity rates after pancreatoduodenectomy between units may be misleading because it does not take into account the physiological variable of the condition of the patients. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) for pancreatoduodenectomy patients and to look for risk factors associated with morbidity in a high-volume center.

Methods

Between January 1993 and April 2006, 652 patients underwent a pancreatoduodenectomy, 502 of them for malignant disease. POSSUM performance was evaluated by assessing the “goodness-of-fit” with the linear analysis method.

Results

Overall, 332 of the 652 patients (50.9%) had one or more complication after pancreatoduodenectomy, and 9 patients (1.4%) died. POSSUM had a significant lack of fit using goodness-of-fit analysis. In multivariate analysis, one statistically significant factor associated with morbidity and not incorporated in POSSUM (P < 0.05) was identified: ampulla of Vater adenocarcinoma (OR = 1.73, 95% CI: 1.07–2.80).

Conclusions

Overall, there is a lack of calibration of POSSUM among patients who undergo pancreatoduodenectomy.

Surgeon volume impacts hospital mortality for pancreatic resection

OBJECTIVE

Improved outcomes after pancreatic resection (PR) by high volume (HV) surgeons have been reported in single center studies, which may be confounded with potential selection and referral bias. We attempted to determine if improved outcomes by HV surgeons are reproducible when patient demographic factors are controlled at the population level.

METHODS

Using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, discharge records with surgeon identifiers for all nontrauma PR (n = 3581) were examined from 1998 to 2005. Surgeons were divided into 2 groups: (HV; > or = 5 operations/year) or low volume (LV; <5 operations/year). We created a logistic regression model to examine the relationship between surgeon type and operative mortality while accounting for patient and hospital factors. To further eliminate differences in cohorts and determine the true effect of surgeon volume on mortality, case-control groups based on patient demographics were created using propensity scores.

RESULTS

One hundred thirty-four HV and 1450 LV surgeons performed 3581 PR in 742 hospitals across 12 states that reported surgeon identifier information over the 8-year period. Patients who underwent PR by HV surgeons were more likely to be male, white raced, and a resident of a high-income zip code (P < 0.05). Significant independent factors for in-hospital mortality after PR included increasing age, male gender, Medicaid insurance, and surgery by HV surgeon. HV surgeons had a lower adjusted mortality compared with LV surgeons (2.4% vs. 6.4%; P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

After controlling for patient demographics and factors, pancreatic resection by a HV surgeon in this case-controlled cohort was independently associated with a 51% reduction in in-hospital mortality.

Branch duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm of the pancreas in solid organ transplant recipients

OBJECTIVES

In immunosuppressed patients with branch duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN-Br) associated with solid organ transplantation, the risk of major pancreatic surgery has to be weighed against the risk of progression to malignancy. Recent studies show that IPMN-Br without consensus indications for resection (CIR) can be followed conservatively. We analyzed the course of IPMN-Br in patients with and without solid organ transplant.

METHODS

We compared clinical and imaging data at diagnosis and follow-up of 33 IPMN-Br patients with solid organ transplant (T-IPMN-Br) with those of 57 IPMN-Br patients who did not undergo transplantation (NT-IPMN-Br). In T-IPMN-Br, we noted pre- and post-transplant imaging and cyst characteristics. This case-control study was conducted in a tertiary-care hospital for patients with IPMN-Br.

RESULTS

T-IPMN-Br patients were younger than the NT-IPMN-Br patients (63 vs. 68 years, P = 0.01). The median duration of follow-up for the groups was similar (29 vs. 28 months, P = NS). CIR were present in 24% (8/33) of T-IPMN-Br patients and 32% (18/57) of NT-IPMN-Br. New CIR were noted in 6% (2/33) of patients in the T-IPMN-Br group during a median follow-up of 17 months (range, 3-100 months) compared with 4% (2/57) of patients in the NT-IPMN-Br group (P = NS). Eleven patients (10 NT-IPMN-Br, 1 T-IPMN-Br) underwent surgery during follow-up. Only one NT-IPMN-Br patient was diagnosed with malignancy; all others had benign IPMN-Br.

CONCLUSIONS

In participants with IPMN-Br, short-term follow-up after solid organ transplant was not associated with any significant change in cyst characteristics suggesting that incidental IPMN-Br, even in the setting of immunosuppression post-transplant, can be followed conservatively.