Global variation of risk thresholds for initiating statins for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease: a benefit-harm balance modelling study

Optimal risk thresholds for prescribing statins as primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in Iranian general population: a benefit-harm modelling study

PURPOSE

The use of statins for the primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is associated with various beneficial outcomes, alongside certain undesirable effects. This study aims to determine optimal risk thresholds above which statin therapy yields a net benefit, considering both the positive effects and potential adverse effects, as well as their probabilities and patient preferences.

METHODS

Quantitative benefit-harm balance modeling was applied to the Iranian general population aged 40 to 75 years with no history of CVD. The analysis utilized data from prior studies, including statin effect estimates for different outcomes from a meta-analysis, patient preferences obtained from an Iranian survey, and baseline incidence rates of adverse outcomes sourced from the Global Burden of Disease study for Iran. Outcomes were defined as angina, myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, fatal or non-fatal stroke, and heart failure. Benefit-harm balance indices were calculated for various combinations of age, sex, and 10-year CVD risk.

RESULTS

Statin therapy was found to be advantageous at a lower 10-year CVD risk threshold in men (18-23%) compared to women (24-28%). Furthermore, individuals aged 40-45 years exhibited a lower risk threshold (18% in men, 24% in women) than those aged 70-75 years (23% in men, 28% in women).

CONCLUSION

The desirable 10-year risk thresholds for statin prescription in the primary prevention of CVD vary by age and gender, ranging from 18 to 28%, encompassing a spectrum of outcomes from angina to CVD mortality. These results suggest hard-CVD risk thresholds of 7.5% to 10% for both sexes.

Black phosphorus quantum dots prevent atherosclerosis in high-fat diet-fed apolipoprotein E knockout mice

Atherosclerosis (AS) is the main pathological basis of cardiovascular diseases such as coronary heart disease. Black phosphorus quantum dots (BPQDs) are a novel nanomaterial with good optical properties and biocompatibility, which was applied in the treatment of AS in mice, with good results shown in our previous study. In this study, BPQDs were injected into high-fat diet-fed apolipoprotein E knockout mice as a preventive drug for 12 weeks. Simvastatin, a classic preventive drug for AS, was used as a control to verify the preventive effect of BPQDs. The results showed that after preventive treatment with BPQDs, the plaque area in mice was significantly reduced, the vascular elasticity was increased, and serum lipid levels were significantly lower than those in the model group. To explore the mechanism, macrophages were induced to become foam cells using oxidized low-density lipoprotein. We found that BPQDs treatment could increase cell autophagy, thereby regulating intracellular lipid metabolism. Taken together, these data revealed that BPQDs may serve as a functional drug in preventing the development of AS.

Prioritising cardiovascular disease risk assessment to high risk individuals based on primary care records

OBJECTIVE

To provide quantitative evidence for systematically prioritising individuals for full formal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment using primary care records with a novel tool (eHEART) with age- and sex- specific risk thresholds.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

eHEART was derived using landmark Cox models for incident CVD with repeated measures of conventional CVD risk predictors in 1,642,498 individuals from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Using 119,137 individuals from UK Biobank, we modelled the implications of initiating guideline-recommended statin therapy using eHEART with age- and sex-specific prioritisation thresholds corresponding to 5% false negative rates to prioritise adults aged 40-69 years in a population in England for invitation to a formal CVD risk assessment.

RESULTS

Formal CVD risk assessment on all adults would identify 76% and 49% of future CVD events amongst men and women respectively, and 93 (95% CI: 90, 95) men and 279 (95% CI: 259, 297) women would need to be screened (NNS) to prevent one CVD event. In contrast, if eHEART was first used to prioritise individuals for formal CVD risk assessment, we would identify 73% and 47% of future events amongst men and women respectively, and a NNS of 75 (95% CI: 72, 77) men and 162 (95% CI: 150, 172) women. Replacing the age- and sex-specific prioritisation thresholds with a 10% threshold identify around 10% less events.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of prioritisation tools with age- and sex-specific thresholds could lead to more efficient CVD assessment programmes with only small reductions in effectiveness at preventing new CVD events.

Optimizing cardiovascular disease risk screening in a low-resource setting: cost-effectiveness of program modifications in Sri Lanka modelled with nationally representative survey data

BACKGROUND

While screening for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk can help low-resource health systems deliver low-cost, effective prevention, evidence is needed to adapt international screening guidelines for maximal impact in local settings. We aimed to establish how the cost-effectiveness of CVD risk screening in Sri Lanka varies with who is screened, how risk is assessed, and what thresholds are used for prescription of medicines.

METHODS

We used data for people aged 35 years and over from a 2018/19 nationally representative survey in Sri Lanka. We modelled the costs and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) for 128 screening program scenarios distinguished by a) age group screened, b) risk tool used, c) definition of high CVD risk, d) blood pressure threshold for treatment of high-risks, and e) prescription of statins to all diabetics. We used the current program as the base case. We used a Markov model of a one-year screening program with a lifetime horizon and a public health system perspective.

RESULTS

Scenarios that included the WHO-2019 office-based risk tool dominated most others. Switching to this tool and raising the age threshold for screening from 35 to 40 years gave an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $113/QALY. Lowering the CVD high-risk threshold from 20 to 10% and prescribing antihypertensives at a lower threshold to diabetics and people at high risk of CVD gave an ICER of $1,159/QALY. The findings were sensitive to allowing for disutility of daily medication.

CONCLUSIONS

In Sri Lanka, CVD risk screening scenarios that used the WHO-2019 office-based risk tool, screened people above the age of 40, and lowered risk and blood pressure thresholds would likely be cost-effective, generating an additional QALY at less than half a GDP per capita.

There is urgent need to treat atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk earlier, more intensively, and with greater precision: A review of current practice and recommendations for improved effectiveness

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) is epidemic throughout the world and is etiologic for such acute cardiovascular events as myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, unstable angina, and death. ASCVD also impacts risk for dementia, chronic kidney disease peripheral arterial disease and mobility, impaired sexual response, and a host of other visceral impairments that adversely impact the quality and rate of progression of aging. The relationship between low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and risk for ASCVD is one of the most highly established and investigated issues in the entirety of modern medicine. Elevated LDL-C is a necessary condition for atherogenesis induction. Basic scientific investigation, prospective longitudinal cohorts, and randomized clinical trials have all validated this association. Yet despite the enormous number of clinical trials which support the need for reducing the burden of atherogenic lipoprotein in blood, the percentage of high and very high-risk patients who achieve risk stratified LDL-C target reductions is low and has remained low for the last thirty years. Atherosclerosis is a preventable disease. As clinicians, the time has come for us to take primordial and primary prevention more serously. Despite a plethora of therapeutic approaches, the large majority of patients at risk for ASCVD are poorly or inadequately treated, leaving them vulnerable to disease progression, acute cardiovascular events, and poor aging due to loss of function in multiple visceral organs. Herein we discuss the need to greatly intensify efforts to reduce risk, decrease disease burden, and provide more comprehensive and earlier risk assessment to optimally prevent ASCVD and its complications. Evidence is presented to support that treatment should aim for far lower goals in cholesterol management, should take into account many more factors than commonly employed today and should begin significantly earlier in life.

Global Trends in the Epidemiology and Management of Dyslipidemia

Dyslipidemia, especially a circulating non-optimal level of cholesterol, is one of the most important risk factors for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), which accounts for the most deaths worldwide. Maintaining a healthy level of blood cholesterol is an important prevention strategy for ASCVD, through lifestyle intervention or cholesterol-lowering therapy. Over the past three decades, the epidemiology and management of dyslipidemia has changed greatly in many countries. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the current epidemiologic features of dyslipidemia and challenges from a global perspective.

Low-doses aspirin in the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in patients with diabetes: Meta-analysis stratified by baseline cardiovascular risk

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The aim of this meta-analysis was to analyze the risks and benefits of low-dose aspirin in patients with T2D without cardiovascular conditions according to the baseline cardiovascular risk.

METHODS

We performed a meta-analysis including randomized clinical trials that evaluated the use of low-dose aspirin (75-100 mg/day) versus placebo/usual care in patients with T2D. Studies were classified as low, moderate and high risk based on the number of events in the placebo/control arms or by cardiovascular risk score when reported. The incidence of MACE, cardiovascular mortality and bleeding were evaluated.

RESULTS

Ten eligible trials (34069 patients) were considered eligible for the analyses. According to the stratified analysis, low-dose aspirin use was associated with reduced risk for MACE in the moderate/high-risk group (OR: 0.88; 95% CI, 0.80-0.97; I² = 0%) but not in the low-risk group (OR: 0.89; 95% CI, 0.77-1.01; I² = 0%). Likewise, low-dose aspirin use was associated with more bleeding in the low-risk group, showing a non-significant trend in the moderate/high-risk group. There was no reduction in cardiovascular mortality in either group. Beyond the different findings in each stratum, the differences between the subgroups were not statistically significant.

CONCLUSION

This study showed that low-dose aspirin in patients with T2D reduces MACE and increases bleeding. Based on the within-subgroups results, the baseline cardiovascular risk does not modify the effect of aspirin therapy. However, few studies were included and the comparison between subgroups showed a trend in favor to the highest risk group, these results should be confirmed in future studies.