Direct modelling of age standardized marginal relative survival through incorporation of time-dependent weights

Mixture and Non-mixture Cure Models for Health Technology Assessment: What You Need to Know

There is increasing interest in the use of cure modelling to inform health technology assessment (HTA) due to the development of new treatments that appear to offer the potential for cure in some patients. However, cure models are often not included in evidence dossiers submitted to HTA agencies, and they are relatively rarely relied upon to inform decision-making. This is likely due to a lack of understanding of how cure models work, what they assume, and how reliable they are. In this tutorial we explain why and when cure models may be useful for HTA, describe the key characteristics of mixture and non-mixture cure models, and demonstrate their use in a range of scenarios, providing Stata code. We highlight key issues that must be taken into account by analysts when fitting these models and by reviewers and decision-makers when interpreting their predictions. In particular, we note that flexible parametric non-mixture cure models have not been used in HTA, but they offer advantages that make them well suited to an HTA context when a cure assumption is valid but follow-up is limited.

Tunneled Hemodialysis Catheter Tip Design and Risk of Catheter Dysfunction: An Australian Nationwide Cohort Study

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE

Hemodialysis catheter dysfunction is an important problem for patients with kidney failure. The optimal design of the tunneled catheter tip is unknown. This study evaluated the association of catheter tip design with the duration of catheter function.

STUDY DESIGN

Observational cohort study using data from the nationwide REDUCCTION trial.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

4,722 adults who each received hemodialysis via 1 or more tunneled central venous catheters in 37 Australian nephrology services from December 2016 to March 2020.

EXPOSURE

Design of tunneled hemodialysis catheter tip, classified as symmetrical, step, or split.

OUTCOME

Time to catheter dysfunction requiring removal due to inadequate dialysis blood flow assessed by the treating clinician.

ANALYTICAL APPROACH

Mixed, 3-level accelerated failure time model, assuming a log-normal survival distribution. Secular trends, the intervention, and baseline differences in service, patient, and catheter factors were included in the adjusted model. In a sensitivity analysis, survival times and proportional hazards were compared among participants' first tunneled catheters.

RESULTS

Among the study group, 355 of 3,871 (9.2%), 262 of 1,888 (13.9%), and 38 of 455 (8.4%) tunneled catheters with symmetrical, step, and split tip designs, respectively, required removal due to dysfunction. Step tip catheters required removal for dysfunction at a rate 53% faster than symmetrical tip catheters (adjusted time ratio, 0.47 [95% CI, 0.33-0.67) and 76% faster than split tip catheters (adjusted time ratio, 0.24 [95% CI, 0.11-0.51) in the adjusted accelerated failure time models. Only symmetrical tip catheters had performance superior to step tip catheters in unadjusted and sensitivity analyses. Split tip catheters were infrequently used and had risks of dysfunction similar to symmetrical tip catheters. The cumulative incidence of other complications requiring catheter removal, routine removal, and death before removal were similar across the 3 tip designs.

LIMITATIONS

Tip design was not randomized.

CONCLUSIONS

Symmetrical and split tip catheters had a lower risk of catheter dysfunction requiring removal than step tip catheters.

FUNDING

Grants from government (Queensland Health, Safer Care Victoria, Medical Research Future Fund, National Health and Medical Research Council, Australia), academic (Monash University), and not-for-profit (ANZDATA Registry, Kidney Health Australia) sources.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Registered at ANZCTR with study number ACTRN12616000830493.

PLAIN-LANGUAGE SUMMARY

Central venous catheters are widely used to facilitate vascular access for life-sustaining hemodialysis treatments but often fail due to blood clots or other mechanical problems that impede blood flow. A range of adaptations to the design of tunneled hemodialysis catheters have been developed, but it is unclear which designs have the greatest longevity. We analyzed data from an Australian nationwide cohort of patients who received hemodialysis via a tunneled catheter and found that catheters with a step tip design failed more quickly than those with a symmetrical tip. Split tip catheters performed well but were infrequently used and require further study. Use of symmetrical rather than step tip hemodialysis catheters may reduce mechanical failures and unnecessary procedures for patients.

Evaluation of Flexible Parametric Relative Survival Approaches for Enforcing Long-Term Constraints When Extrapolating All-Cause Survival

OBJECTIVES

Parametric models are used to estimate the lifetime benefit of an intervention beyond the range of trial follow-up. Recent recommendations have suggested more flexible survival approaches and the use of external data when extrapolating. Both of these can be realized by using flexible parametric relative survival modeling. The overall aim of this article is to introduce and contrast various approaches for applying constraints on the long-term disease-related (excess) mortality including cure models and evaluate the consequent implications for extrapolation.

METHODS

We describe flexible parametric relative survival modeling approaches. We then introduce various options for constraining the long-term excess mortality and compare the performance of each method in simulated data. These methods include fitting a standard flexible parametric relative survival model, enforcing statistical cure, and forcing the long-term excess mortality to converge to a constant. We simulate various scenarios, including where statistical cure is reasonable and where the long-term excess mortality persists.

RESULTS

The compared approaches showed similar survival fits within the follow-up period. However, when extrapolating the all-cause survival beyond trial follow-up, there is variation depending on the assumption made about the long-term excess mortality. Altering the time point from which the excess mortality is constrained enables further flexibility.

CONCLUSIONS

The various constraints can lead to applying explicit assumptions when extrapolating, which could lead to more plausible survival extrapolations. The inclusion of general population mortality directly into the model-building process, which is possible for all considered approaches, should be adopted more widely in survival extrapolation in health technology assessment.