Combination of serological biomarkers and clinical features to predict mucosal healing in Crohn's disease: a multicenter cohort study

A novel online calculator based on clinical features and hematological parameters to predict total skin clearance in patients with moderate to severe psoriasis

BACKGROUND

Treatment responses to biologic agents vary between patients with moderate to severe psoriasis; while some patients achieve total skin clearance (TSC), a proportion of patients may only experience partial improvement.

OBJECTIVE

This study was designed to identify potential predictors for achieving TSC in psoriasis patients treated with IL-17 inhibitors. It also aimed to develop an easy-to-use calculator incorporating these factors by the nomogram to predict TSC response.

METHODS

A total of 381 patients with psoriasis receiving ixekizumab were included in the development cohort and 229 psoriasis patients who initiated secukinumab treatment were included in the validation cohort. The study endpoint was achieving TSC after 12 weeks of IL-17 inhibitors treatment, defined as the 100% improvement in Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI 100). Multivariate Cox regression analyses and LASSO analysis were performed to identify clinical predictors and blood predictors respectively.

RESULTS

The following parameters were identified as predictive factors associated with TSC: previous biologic treatment, joint involvement, genital area affected, early response (PASI 60 at week 4), neutrophil counts and uric acid levels. The nomogram model incorporating these factors achieved good discrimination in the development cohort (AUC, 0.721; 95% CI 0.670-0.773) and validation cohort (AUC, 0.715; 95% CI 0.665-0.760). The calibration curves exhibited a satisfactory fit, indicating the accuracy of the model. Furthermore, the decision curve analysis confirmed the clinical utility of the nomogram, highlighting its favorable value for practical application. Web-based online calculator has been developed to enhance the efficiency of clinical applications.

CONCLUSIONS

This study developed a practical and clinically applicable nomogram model for the prediction of TSC in patients with moderate to severe psoriasis. The nomogram model demonstrated robust predictive performance and exhibited significant clinical utility. Trial registration A multi-center clinical study of systemic treatment strategies for psoriasis in Chinese population;ChiCTR2000036186; Registered 31 August 2020; https://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.html?proj=58256 .

Development of a scoring system for predicting the severity of ulcerative colitis

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS

Monitoring disease activity in ulcerative colitis (UC) is critical in preventing long-term complications. This study aims to develop a scoring system using non-invasive indicators to predict endoscopic activities for ulcerative colitis (UC) patients.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

All enrolled patients with UC admitted to Shanghai Xinhua Hospital between June 2017 and January 2021 were enrolled, and their clinical data were retrospectively collected and a number of serological biomarkers concentrations were analyzed. Patients were categorized into mild and moderate-to-severe disease groups. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression was used to predict moderate-to-severe endoscopic activities, which were then incorporated into a nomogram to establish a prediction scoring model.

RESULT

Overall, 231 patients were divided into a mild group (n = 111, 48.0%) and a moderate-to-severe group (n = 120, 52.0%). The following variables were independently associated with the disease severity and were subsequently included into the prediction model: Proteinase 3 antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (PR3-ANCA), C-reactive protein (CRP), hemoglobin(Hb), IL-10, stool frequency ≥ 5 times/day and hematochezia. Incorporating these 6 factors, the nomogram showed good discrimination with C-index of 0.819 and reliable calibration. A scoring model was established with the area under the curve 0.818. Moreover, PR3-ANCA and CRP correlated with the duration of hospital stay.

CONCLUSION

We developed a predictive model for endoscopic disease activities by using noninvasive factors based on PR3-ANCA, CRP, Hb, IL-10, stool frequency and hematochezia. This prediction model might assist clinicians in managing patients with UC.

Middle small-bowel segment Lewis score may predict long-term outcomes among patients with quiescent Crohn's disease

Background

Video capsule endoscopy (VCE) has been proven to accurately diagnose small-bowel inflammation and predict flares among patients with quiescent Crohn's disease (CD). However, data regarding its predictive role in this population over an extended follow-up are scarce.

Objectives

To predict clinical exacerbation and to assess the yield of Lewis score in identifying CD patients with future clinical exacerbation during an extended follow-up (>24 months).

Design

A post hoc analysis study.

Methods

Adult patients with quiescent small-bowel CD who were followed with VCE, inflammatory biomarkers and magnetic resonance enterography in a prospective study (between 2013 and 2018). We extracted extended clinical data (up to April 2022). The primary composite outcome (i.e. clinical exacerbation) was defined as intestinal surgery, endoscopic dilation, CD-related admission, corticosteroid administration, or biological/immunomodulator treatment change during follow-up.

Results

Of the 61 patients in the study [median age 29 (24-37) years, male 57.4%, biologic treatment 46.7%], 18 patients met the primary outcome during an extended follow-up [median 58.0 (34.5-93.0) months]. On univariable analysis, complicated [hazard ratio (HR) 7.348, p = 0.002] and stricturing disease phenotype (HR 5.305, p = 0.001) were associated with higher risk for clinical exacerbation during follow-up. A baseline VCE middle small-bowel segment Lewis score (midLS) ⩾ 135 identified patients with future exacerbation [AUC (area under the curve) 0.767, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.633-0.902, p = 0.001, HR 6.317, 93% negative predictive value], whereas the AUC of the conventional Lewis score was 0.734 (95% CI: 0.589-0.879, p = 0.004). Sensitivity analysis restricted to patients with either complicated (n = 34) or stricturing (n = 26) disease phenotype revealed that midLS still predicted clinical exacerbation during follow-up (AUC 0.747/0.753, respectively), in these patients.

Conclusion

MidLS predicts treatment failure in quiescent CD patients (median follow-up of 5 years) independently of disease phenotype.

Value of serum platelet/albumin and C-reactive protein/albumin ratios in evaluating mucosal healing and disease recurrence in patients with Crohn's disease

BACKGROUND

At present, the most studied inflammatory markers of Crohn's disease (CD) are C-reactive protein, but CD cannot be predicted by a single index. In recent years, studies have found that the combined application of serum markers can be more accurate for prediction, and platelet/serum albumin (PLT/ALB) and C-reactive protein/serum albumin (CRP/ALB) ratios have high specificity in evaluating inflammatory activity.

AIM

To explore the value of serological platelet/albumin and C-reactive protein/albumin ratios in evaluating mucosal healing and disease recurrence in patients with CD.

METHODS

Eighty-five patients with CD treated at Xinzhou District People's Hospital from April 2019 to April 2021 were selected. According to the clinical and endoscopic healing criteria, the patients were divided into either a mucosal healing group or a mucosal non-healing group. The general data, serum ALB, PLT, and CRP levels, and PLT/ALB and CRP/ALB ratios were recorded before and after treatment. The correlation between serum indexes and SES-CD score was analyzed to evaluate their value in assessing mucosal healing. The patients were divided into a recurrent group and a non-recurrent group according to whether they relapsed. The value of serum indexes in predicting disease recurrence was assessed.

RESULTS

After 6 mo of treatment, the level of ALB in the mucosal healing group (n = 44) was significantly higher than that in the mucosal non-healing group (n = 41), while the levels of PLT, CRP, PLT/ALB ratio, and CRP/ALB ratio significantly decreased (P < 0.05). Serum ALB, PLT, CRP, PLT/ALB ratio, and CRP/ALB ratio were significantly correlated with SES-CD score. The AUC values of ALB, PLT, CRP, CRP/ALB ratio, and PLT/ALB ratio in assessing mucosal healing were 0.712, 0.662, 0.774, 0.776, and 0.719, respectively (all AUC values > 0.5). After treatment, ALB in the recurrent group was significantly lower than that in the non-recurrent group, while the levels of PLT, CRP, PLT/ALB ratio, and CRP/ALB ratio were significantly higher in the recurrent group (P < 0.05). The AUC values of ALB, PLT, CRP, CRP/ALB ratio, and PLT/ALB ratio for predicting disease recurrence were 0.641, 0.628, 0.643, 0.652, and 0.651, respectively (all AUC values > 0.5).

CONCLUSION

PLT/ALB and CRP/ALB ratios have high clinical value in evaluating mucosal healing and disease recurrence in patients with CD.

Nitric Oxide, Neutrophil/Lymphocyte, and Platelet/Lymphocyte Ratios as Promising Inflammatory Biomarkers in Complicated Crohn's Disease: Outcomes of Corticosteroids and Anti-TNF-α Therapies

Crohn's disease (CD) is a relapsing-remitting inflammatory bowel disease with a progressive course. The aim of our study was to evaluate the relationship between nitric oxide (NO), pro-inflammatory cytokines, and blood count-based ratios in patients with complicated Crohn's disease as well as the outcome of corticosteroid or anti-TNF-α therapy. In this context, we evaluated the NLR as the ratio of neutrophils count to lymphocytes count, PLR as the ratio of platelets count to lymphocytes count, and MLR as the ratio of monocytes count to lymphocytes count in patients and controls. Furthermore, we assessed NO production by the Griess method in plasma along with iNOS and NF-κB expression by immunofluorescence method in intestinal tissues of patients and controls. In the same way, we evaluated plasma TNF-α, IL-17A, and IL-10 levels using ELISA. Our results indicate that blood count-based ratios NLR, PLR, and MLR were significantly higher in patients compared to controls. In addition, increased systemic levels of NO, TNF-α, and IL-17A and colonic expression of iNOS and NF-κB were observed in the same patients. Interestingly, the high ratio of NLR and MLR as well as NO production were significantly decreased in treated patients. Collectively, our findings suggest that nitric oxide as well as the blood count-based ratios (NLR, PLR, MLR) could constitute useful biomarkers in complicated Crohn's disease, predicting the response to treatments.

Patency capsule: A novel independent predictor for long-term outcomes among patients with quiescent Crohn's disease

INTRODUCTION

Patency capsule (PC) is a recommended procedure to rule-out small-bowel stenosis before video capsule endoscopy (VCE). We examined future clinical outcomes among patients with failed-PC versus patients in whom PC had passed (passed-PC).

METHODS

A Post-hoc analysis of two prospective cohort studies of adult patients with quiescent small-bowel CD that underwent PC between 2013-2020. The primary composite-outcome was the need for intestinal-surgery or endoscopic-dilation during follow-up in patients with or without failed-PC.

RESULTS

A total of 190 patients were included (47-failed PC, 143-passed PC, median follow-up 34.12 months). Patients with a failed-PC had higher rates of the primary composite-outcome (21.3% vs. 1.4%, Hazard ratio [HR] 20.3, 95% confidence interval [CI] 4.4-93.7, p<0.001) and also secondary outcomes including intestinal-surgery (14.9% vs. 0.70%, p<0.001), endoscopic-dilation (14.9% vs. 0.70%, p<0.001), admissions (23.3% vs. 5.7%, p<0.001) and clinical-flares (43.9% vs. 27.7%, p=0.005) during follow-up compared with controls. Failed-PC was the only statistically significant factor for surgery and/or endoscopic-dilation, regardless of a B2/B3 phenotype at baseline. In sensitivity-analyses restricted only to patients with stricturing phenotype (n=73), failed-PC still predicted worse long-term composite-outcome (HR 8.68 95% CI 1.72-43.68, p=0.002). Of the 190 patients ingesting a PC, only one patient with a failed-PC had 48 hours of self-limiting mild symptoms.

DISCUSSION

Clinically-stable CD patients with failed-PC have worse long-term clinical outcomes than those without, independently of CD phenotype. Standalone PC may serve as a novel, safe and affordable prognostic examination, to identify patients with quiescent CD who have a higher risk for future worse clinical outcomes.

Predicting Mucosal Healing in Crohn's Disease: A Nomogram Model Developed from a Retrospective Cohort

Purpose

Mucosal healing (MH) has become a therapeutic end point for Crohn's disease (CD). The purpose of this study was to identify potential risk factors responsible for a lower probability of mucosal healing in CD. It also aimed to create and validate a noninvasive tool for predicting mucosal healing in CD to aid clinical decision-making.

Patients and Methods

We established a derivation cohort diagnosed with CD, in which endoscopic examination was performed before and after treatment at the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University between January 2010 and June 2021. Patient data including demographic and clinical characteristics and treatment details were collected. The achievement of mucosal healing (without ulceration on endoscopic examination) after treatment was the endpoint observed during follow-up. We performed logistic regression analysis to identify factors associated with mucosal healing. These factors were used to develop a model (CD mucosal healing prediction nomogram) to predict mucosal healing in CD. External validation was performed using a new cohort of 60 patients from the Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University between January 2012 and June 2021.

Results

A total of 331 patients were included in the derivation cohort. We found the following factors to be independently associated with mucosal healing after treatment: disease course <11 months, ulcer size <0.5 cm, Harvey-Bradshaw Index score <9, infliximab treatment, and non-exclusive use of 5-aminosalicylic acid. The model incorporating these factors achieved good discrimination, calibration, and clinical decision curve analysis results on internal validation (C-index: 0.788, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.74-0.84). The external validation cohort also demonstrated good discrimination (C-index: 0.785, 95% CI: 0.68-0.90) and calibration.

Conclusion

The CD mucosal healing prediction nomogram model demonstrated good reliability and validated. It can potentially be developed into a simple and clinically useful tool for predicting mucosal healing in CD.