Screening for older inpatients at risk for long length of stay: which clinical tool to use?

Predictive Value of PRISMA-7, qSOFA, ESI, and CFS for 28-Day Mortality in Elderly Patients in the Emergency Department

Background

To explore the predictive value of the Programme on Research for Integrating Services for the Maintenance of Autonomy 7 (PRISMA-7), quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score, Emergency Severity Index (ESI), and Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) on the 28-day mortality risk in emergency elderly patients.

Methods

A multicenter prospective observational study was conducted to select elderly patients (≥65 years old) admitted to the emergency department of three Grade-A hospitals in different regions of China from January 2020 to March 2022. Primary data were collected at the time of admission. All patients were followed up for 28 days. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality. The predictive value of four scoring systems for 28-day mortality in elderly emergency patients was assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and logistic regression analysis.

Results

A total of 687 elderly emergency patients were enrolled, of whom 66 (9.61%) died within 28 days. Age, ICU admission rate, PRISMA-7, qSOFA, and CFS were significantly higher in the death group than in the survival group (P < 0.05), and ESI was lower than in the survival group (P < 0.001). The AUC for CFS was the largest of the four scoring systems at 0.80. According to the Youden index, the optimal cutoff values for PRISMA-7, qSOFA, ESI, and CFS were >3.5, >0.5, <2.5, and >4.5, respectively. Logistic regression revealed that qSOFA and CFS were the primary risk factors for increased 28-day mortality in elderly emergency patients (P < 0.001). The combined predictor L (L=X1+0.50X2, X1 and X2 are qSOFA and CFS values, respectively) had an AUC of 0.86 and a cutoff value >2.75.

Conclusion

PRISMA-7, qSOFA, ESI, CFS, and the combined qSOFA+CFS predictor were all effective predictors of 28-day mortality risk in elderly emergency patients, with the combined qSOFA+CFS predictor having the best predictive power.

Agreement and prognostic accuracy of three ED vulnerability screeners: findings from a prospective multi-site cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the agreement between three emergency department (ED) vulnerability screeners, including the InterRAI ED Screener, ER², and PRISMA-7. Our secondary objective was to evaluate the discriminative accuracy of screeners in predicting discharge home and extended ED lengths-of-stay (> 24 h).

METHODS

We conducted a nested sub-group study using data from a prospective multi-site cohort study evaluating frailty in older ED patients presenting to four Quebec hospitals. Research nurses assessed patients consecutively with the three screeners. We employed Cohen's Kappa to determine agreement, with high-risk cut-offs of three and four for the PRISMA-7, six for the ER², and five for the interRAI ED Screener. We used logistic regression to evaluate the discriminative accuracy of instruments, testing them in their dichotomous, full, and adjusted forms (adjusting for age, sex, and hospital academic status).

RESULTS

We evaluated 1855 older ED patients across the four hospital sites. The mean age of our sample was 84 years. Agreement between the interRAI ED Screener and the ER² was fair (K = 0.37; 95% CI 0.33-0.40); agreement between the PRISMA-7 and ER² was also fair (K = 0.39; 95% CI = 0.36-0.43). Agreement between interRAI ED Screener and PRISMA-7 was poor (K = 0.19; 95% CI 0.16-0.22). Using a cut-off of four for PRISMA-7 improved agreement with the ER² (K = 0.55; 95% CI 0.51-0.59) and the ED Screener (K = 0.32; 95% CI 0.2-0.36). When predicting discharge home, the concordance statistics among models were similar in their dichotomous (c = 0.57-0.61), full (c = 0.61-0.64), and adjusted forms (c = 0.63-0.65), and poor for all models when predicting extended length-of-stay.

CONCLUSION

ED vulnerability scores from the three instruments had a fair agreement and were associated with important patient outcomes. The interRAI ED Screener best identifies older ED patients at greatest risk, while the PRISMA-7 and ER² are more sensitive instruments.

Barriers to Discharge in Geriatric Long Staying Inpatient and Emergency Department Admissions: A Descriptive Study

Background: This study describes long length of stay during emergency department (ED) visits and hospital admissions, barriers to discharge, and discharge solutions for geriatric patients. Methods: We conducted a retrospective medical record review of a random sample of 150 ED patients and 150 inpatients with long length of stay (LOS) encounters. Cohorts were characterized by demographics, social determinants of health (e.g., health insurance, housing), medical comorbidities at admission, discharge care coordination, and final disposition. Results: In the ED, the primary barrier to discharge was inadequate inpatient bed availability (63%). In the inpatient setting, barriers to discharge were predominantly due to a demonstrated medical requirement for continued hospitalization (55%), followed by difficulty with coordinating discharge to a skilled nursing facility or rehabilitation center (22%). Discussion: Among long LOS ED patients, discharge delays were often the result of unavailable inpatient beds and services. Reducing the LOS for ED patients may require further investigation as to which hospital services are most frequently utilized by geriatric patients and structuring inpatient bed allocation to prevent extended patient boarding in the ED. Reducing long inpatient LOS may require early identification of high-risk patients and strengthening of relationships with community-based services.

Length of hospital stay among oldest-old patients in acute geriatric ward

PURPOSE

To examine risk factors for prolonged hospital length of stay (LOS) in the oldest-old inpatients aged ≥ 90.

METHODS

This retrospective cross-sectional study was performed in acute Geriatrics Department at Kaplan Medical Center. The target population was the oldest-old inpatients aged ≥ 90 hospitalized with acute illness. In total 1536 admissions of 987 patients admitted between January 2007 and December 2010 from the emergency room were included in the study. We retrieved from the electronic hospital records the following data: demographics, admission diagnosis, comorbidities, laboratory tests, drugs, functional and cognitive status, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) score and age-adjusted CCI score.

RESULTS

The risk factors for a prolonged LOS were tube-feeding, consumption of ≥ 5 drugs, non-independent functional status, diagnosis of urinary tract infection (UTI), pneumonia and malignancy on admission, and comorbidities of congestive heart failure (CHF) and hypoalbuminemia. Multiple linear regression analysis found that UTI, hypoalbuminemia, elevated troponin, pneumonia, number of drugs, malignancy, CHF and number of comorbidities explain a higher risk for a longer LOS.

CONCLUSION

Hospital LOS in the oldest-old patients in acute geriatric ward was associated with admission diagnosis and comorbidities. Awareness of the risk factors for a longer LOS might contribute to reducing hospitalization stay and its related negative consequences. Accurate prediction of prolonged LOS in this age group of patients may be more challenging and require variables that were not included in our study. Future research is warranted.

Prognosis tools for short-term adverse events in older emergency department users: result of a Québec observational prospective cohort

Background

The “Program of Research on the Integration of Services for the Maintenance of Autonomy” (PRISMA-7) and “Emergency room evaluation and recommendations” (ER²) are both clinical tools used in Québec Emergency Departments (EDs) for screening of older ED users at higher risk of poor outcomes, such as prolonged length of stay (LOS) in EDs and in hospital. The study aimed to: 1) examine whether the PRISMA-7 and ER² risk levels were associated with length of stays in ED and hospital, as well as hospital admission; and 2) compare the criteria performance (i.e., sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, likelihood ratios and area under receiver operating characteristic curve) of the PRISMA-7 and ER2 high-risk levels for these three ED adverse events in Québec older patients visiting ED on a stretcher.

Methods

A total of 1905 older patients who visited the ED of the Jewish General Hospital (Montreal, Québec, Canada) on stretchers were recruited in this prospective observational cohort. Upon their ED arrival, PRISMA-7 and ER² were performed. The outcomes were LOS in ED and in hospital, and hospital admission.

Results

The PRISMA-7 and ER² risk levels were associated with length of stay in ED and hospital as well as with hospital admission. Prolonged stays and higher hospitalization rates were associated with high-risk levels, whereas those in low-risk level groups had significantly shorter LOS and a lower rate of hospital admission (P < 0.006). While performance measures were poor for both assessment tools, ER² had a greater prognostic testing accuracy compared with PRISMA-7.

Conclusion

PRISMA-7 and ER² were both associated with incidental short-term ED adverse events but their overall prognostic testing accuracy was low, suggesting that they cannot be used as prognostic tools for this purpose.

Predictive validity of PRISMA-7 as a screening instrument for frailty in a hospital setting

OBJECTIVES

Frailty is a major clinical geriatric syndrome associated with serious adverse events including functional disability, falls, hospitalisation, increased morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study was to study the associations between frailty defined as Program of Research to Integrate Services for the Maintenance of Autonomy (PRISMA-7) score ≥3 and use of healthcare resources in hospital and in the municipality as well as association between frailty and mortality.

DESIGN

Register-based retrospective study.

SETTING

The target population consists of patients aged 75 years or above who, during hospital stay, were assessed by a physiotherapist, and at discharge from hospital were prescribed further physical training in the community.

PARTICIPANTS

973 individuals aged 75+ years were included.

OUTCOME MEASURES

We examined associations between frailty and use of healthcare resources in hospital and in the municipality as well as the association between frailty and mortality.

RESULTS

973 individuals aged 75+ years were included. Of these, 63.9% had a PRISMA-7 score ≥3 and were thus defined as frail. Frail individuals were older compared with non-frail with mean ages of 84.6 and 80.4 years, respectively, p>0.001. Age and gender-adjusted mortality after 1 year was higher among the frail (OR 2.46, 95% CI 1.53 to 3.97). Use of healthcare services in the municipality as well as hospital admissions was significantly higher among frail individuals.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on these findings we consider PRISMA-7 to be useful in an in-hospital setting as a screening tool to identify frail elderly patients who may profit from further geriatric assessment during hospital stay.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ID REG-070-2017.

Clinical and functional patient characteristics predict medical needs in older patients at risk of functional decline

Background

The rising number of older multimorbid in-patients has implications for medical care. There is a growing need for the identification of factors predicting the needs of older patients in hospital environments. Our aim was to evaluate the use of clinical and functional patient characteristics for the prediction of medical needs in older hospitalized patients.

Methods

Two hundred forty-two in-patients (57.4% male) aged 78.4 ± 6.4 years, who were consecutively admitted to internal medicine departments of the University Hospital Essen between July 2015 and February 2017, were prospectively enrolled. Patients were assessed upon admission using the Identification of Seniors at Risk (ISAR) screening followed by comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA). The CGA included standardized instruments for the assessment of activities of daily living (ADL), cognition, mobility, and signs of depression upon admission. In multivariable regressions we evaluated the association of clinical patient characteristics, the ISAR score and CGA results with length of hospital stay, number of nursing hours and receiving physiotherapy as indicators for medical needs. We identified clinical characteristics and risk factors associated with higher medical needs.

Results

The 242 patients spent [median(Q1;Q3)]:9.0(4.0;16.0) days in the hospital, needed 2.0(1.5;2.7) hours of nursing each day, and 34.3% received physiotherapy.

In multivariable regression analyses including clinical patient characteristics, ISAR and CGA domains, the factors age (β = − 0.19, 95% confidence interval (CI) = − 0.66;-0.13), number of admission diagnoses (β = 0.28, 95% CI = 0.16;0.41), ADL impairment (B = 6.66, 95% CI = 3.312;10.01), and signs of depression (B = 6.69, 95% CI = 1.43;11.94) independently predicted length of hospital stay. ADL impairment (B = 1.14, 95%CI = 0.67;1.61), cognition impairment (B = 0.57, 95% CI = 0.07;1.07) and ISAR score (β =0.26, 95% CI = 0.01;0.28) independently predicted nursing hours. The number of admission diagnoses (risk ratio (RR) = 1.06, 95% CI = 1.04;1.08), ADL impairment (RR = 3.54, 95% CI = 2.29;5.47), cognition impairment (RR = 1.77, 95% CI = 1.20;2.62) and signs of depression (RR = 1.99, 95% CI = 1.39;2.85) predicted receiving physiotherapy.

Conclusion

Among older in-patients at risk for functional decline, the number of comorbidities, reduced ADL, cognition impairment and signs of depression are important predictors of length of hospital stay, nursing hours, and receiving physiotherapy during hospital stay.