Prognosis tools for short-term adverse events in older emergency department users: result of a Québec observational prospective cohort

ER2 risk levels and their association with incident falls, their recurrence and post-fall fractures in older women: Results of the EPIDOS study

BACKGROUND

"Emergency Room Evaluation and Recommendations" (ER2) is a validated clinical tool which stratifies the risk of the occurrence of adverse outcomes in three levels (i.e., low, moderate and high) in older people attending emergency departments. This study examines the association of ER2 risk levels with incident falls, their recurrence and post-fall fractures in older community women.

METHODS

7147 participants of the EPIDémiologie de l'OStéoporose (EPIDOS) study - an observational population-based cohort study - were selected. ER2 low, moderate and high risk levels were determined at baseline. Incident fall outcomes (i.e., one incident fall without fracture, one incident fall with fracture, ≥2 falls without fracture and ≥ 2 falls with fracture) were collected prospectively every 4 months over a 4-year follow-up period.

RESULTS

The overall incidence of falls was 26.4.%, regardless of their characteristics. ER2 low risk level (hazard ratio (HR) ≤0.80 with P ≤ 0.001) and high risk (HR ≥ 1.26 with P ≤ 0.001) were associated respectively with low and high incident fall outcomes, except for recurrent falls without fracture.

CONCLUSIONS

ER2 low and high risk levels were associated with incident falls outcomes in EPIDOS participants, suggesting that the ER2 tool may be useful for stratifying the risk of falls in the older population.

Validation of a seven-question tool (PRISMA-7) in predicting prognosis of older adults in the emergency department: A prospective study

OBJECTIVES

Older patients arrive at the emergency department (ED) with complex medical challenges, and the current ED triage models frequently undertriage the severity of illness in older adults. There is increasing awareness regarding the importance of identifying frailty in older patients in the context of urgent care. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the predictive accuracy of the seven-question tool of the Program on Research for Integrating Services of the Maintenance of Autonomy (PRISMA-7) in the ED for 28-day mortality among older adults.

DESIGN

A prospective polycentric observational study.

SETTING

West China Hospital of Sichuan University, Shangjinnanfu of West China Hospital, and People's Hospital of Henan Province.

PARTICIPANTS

ED patients aged ≥65 years from the three tertiary care centers over an 8-week period.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES

The primary outcome, 28-day all-cause mortality, was investigated using a Cox proportional hazards regression model to assess the predictive validity. The secondary endpoints, intensive care unit (ICU) transfer was investigated using multivariable logistic regression, compared with trained study assistants.

RESULTS

The final study population comprised 1043 consecutive patients aged ≥65 years. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) for 28-day mortality was 0.80 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.76-0.84), 0.73 (95% CI: 0.68-0.77), and 0.78 (95% CI: 0.73-0.83) for PRISMA-7, Emergency Severity Index (ESI), and quick Sepsis Related Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA), respectively.There was no difference in the AUC between PRISMA-7 and qSOFA(p = 0.374).The AUC for ICU admission was 0.78 (95% CI: 0.75-0.80), 0.62 (95% CI: 0.59-0.66), and 0.68 (95% CI: 0.64-0.72) for PRISMA-7, ESI, and qSOFA, respectively.The AUC for ICU admission between PRISMA-7 and ESI(p<0.001), PRISMA-7 and qSOFA(p<0.001), qSOFA and ESI(p = 0.005) was statistically significant.

CONCLUSION

Our findings reveal that PRISMA-7 improves the prediction of ICU admission, but there is no significant difference when it comes to all-cause mortality. PRISMA-7 appears to be a reliable and valid instrument for identifying frailty in the ED.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ChiCTR2100046545.

Agreement and prognostic accuracy of three ED vulnerability screeners: findings from a prospective multi-site cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the agreement between three emergency department (ED) vulnerability screeners, including the InterRAI ED Screener, ER2, and PRISMA-7. Our secondary objective was to evaluate the discriminative accuracy of screeners in predicting discharge home and extended ED lengths-of-stay (> 24 h).

METHODS

We conducted a nested sub-group study using data from a prospective multi-site cohort study evaluating frailty in older ED patients presenting to four Quebec hospitals. Research nurses assessed patients consecutively with the three screeners. We employed Cohen's Kappa to determine agreement, with high-risk cut-offs of three and four for the PRISMA-7, six for the ER2, and five for the interRAI ED Screener. We used logistic regression to evaluate the discriminative accuracy of instruments, testing them in their dichotomous, full, and adjusted forms (adjusting for age, sex, and hospital academic status).

RESULTS

We evaluated 1855 older ED patients across the four hospital sites. The mean age of our sample was 84 years. Agreement between the interRAI ED Screener and the ER2 was fair (K = 0.37; 95% CI 0.33-0.40); agreement between the PRISMA-7 and ER2 was also fair (K = 0.39; 95% CI = 0.36-0.43). Agreement between interRAI ED Screener and PRISMA-7 was poor (K = 0.19; 95% CI 0.16-0.22). Using a cut-off of four for PRISMA-7 improved agreement with the ER2 (K = 0.55; 95% CI 0.51-0.59) and the ED Screener (K = 0.32; 95% CI 0.2-0.36). When predicting discharge home, the concordance statistics among models were similar in their dichotomous (c = 0.57-0.61), full (c = 0.61-0.64), and adjusted forms (c = 0.63-0.65), and poor for all models when predicting extended length-of-stay.

CONCLUSION

ED vulnerability scores from the three instruments had a fair agreement and were associated with important patient outcomes. The interRAI ED Screener best identifies older ED patients at greatest risk, while the PRISMA-7 and ER2 are more sensitive instruments.

Emergency Room Evaluation and Recommendations and Risk Screening of Incident Major Neurocognitive Disorders in Older Females: Results of an Observational Population-Based Cohort Study

Background

“Emergency Room Evaluation and Recommendations” (ER²) risk levels (i.e., low, moderate and high) may be used to screen for major neurocognitive disorders (MNCD) in older emergency department users, as a high ER² risk level is associated with MNCD diagnosis. This study aims to examine the association of ER² risk levels with incident MNCD in community-dwelling older adults.

Methods

A total of 709 participants of the EPIDémiologie de l’OStéoporose (EPIDOS) study—an observational population-based cohort study—were recruited in Toulouse (France). ER² low, moderate and high risk levels were determined at baseline. Incident MNCD and their type (i.e., Alzheimer’s disease (AD) vs. non-AD) were diagnosed after a 7-year follow-up period.

Results

The overall incidence of MNCD was 29.1%. A low ER² risk level was associated with low incidence of MNCD [Hazard ratio (HR) = 0.71 with P = 0.018] and AD (HR = 0.56 with P = 0.003), whereas a high risk level, both individually and when combined with a moderate risk level, was associated with high incidence of MNCD (HR ≥ 1.40 with P ≤0.018) and AD (HR ≥ 1.80 with P ≤ 0.003). No association was found with incident non-AD.

Conclusion

ER² risk levels were positively associated with incident MNCD in EPIDOS participants, suggesting that ER² may be used for risk screening of MNCD in the older population.

Emergency room evaluation and recommendations for older emergency department users: results of the ER2 experimental study

PURPOSE

The study aims to examine whether the use of "emergency room evaluation and recommendations" (ER²) tool in daily ED practice reduces the length of stay in ED and hospital, and hospital admission in older patients visiting ED on stretcher.

METHODS

A total of 3931 older patients visiting ED of the Jewish General Hospital (Montreal, Quebec, Canada) on stretcher were recruited in this non-randomized, pre-post intervention, single arm, prospective and longitudinal open-label trial. ED staff and patients were blinded of the ER² score and patients received usual ED care over the observational phase, whereas ED staff were informed about the ER² score and patients had usual care plus interventions based on tailor-made geriatric recommendations during the interventional phase. The length of stay in ED and in hospital, and hospital admission were the outcomes.

RESULTS

The ER² recommendations were associated with increased length of stay in ED (β = 2.94 with P ≤ 0.001) and decreased length of stay in hospital (β = - 2.07 with P = 0.011). No effect was found for hospital admission (Odd Ratio (OR) = 0.92 with P = 0.182).

CONCLUSION

Emergency room evaluation and recommendations (ER²) tool had mixed effects. Shorter hospital stay has been reported for older ED users hospitalized, but increased ED stay and no effects on hospital admission were found.