The utilization of primary healthcare services among frail older adults - findings from the Helsinki Birth Cohort Study

Impact of frailty in older people on health care demand: simulation modelling of population dynamics to inform service planning

Background

As populations age, frailty and the associated demand for health care increase. Evidence needed to inform planning and commissioning of services for older people living with frailty is scarce. Accurate information on incidence and prevalence of different levels of frailty and the consequences for health outcomes, service use and costs at population level is needed.

Objectives

To explore the incidence, prevalence, progression and impact of frailty within an ageing general practice population and model the dynamics of frailty-related healthcare demand, outcomes and costs, to inform the development of guidelines and tools to facilitate commissioning and service development.

Study design and methods

A retrospective observational study with statistical modelling to inform simulation (system dynamics) modelling using routine data from primary and secondary health care in England and Wales. Modelling was informed by stakeholder engagement events conducted in Hampshire, England. Data sources included the Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre databank, and the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank. Population prevalence, incidence and progression of frailty within an ageing cohort were estimated using the electronic Frailty Index tool, and associated service use and costs were calculated. Association of frailty with outcomes, service use and costs was explored with multistate and generalised linear models. Results informed development of a prototype system dynamics simulation model, exploring population impact of frailty and future scenarios over a 10-year time frame. Simulation model population projections were externally validated against retrospective data from Secure Anonymised Information Linkage.

Study population

The Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre sample comprised an open cohort of the primary care population aged 50 + between 2006 and 2017 (approx. 2.1 million people). Data were linked to Hospital Episode Statistics data and Office for National Statistics death data. A comparable validation data set from Secure Anonymised Information Linkage was generated.

Baseline measures

Electronic Frailty Index score calculated annually and stratified into Fit, Mild, Moderate and Severe frailty categories. Other variables included age, sex, Index of Multiple Deprivation score, ethnicity and Urban/rural.

Outcomes

Frailty transitions, mortality, hospitalisations, emergency department attendances, general practitioner visits and costs.

Findings

Frailty is already present in people aged 50-64. Frailty incidence was 47 cases per 1000 person-years. Frailty prevalence increased from 26.5% (2006) to 38.9% (2017). Older age, higher deprivation, female sex, Asian ethnicity and urban location independently predict frailty onset and progression; 4.8% of 'fit' people aged 50-64 years experienced a transition to a higher frailty state in a year, compared to 21.4% aged 75-84. Individual healthcare use rises with frailty severity, but Mild and Moderate frailty groups have higher overall costs due to larger population numbers. Simulation projections indicate frailty will increase by 7.1%, from 41.5% to 48.7% between 2017 and 2027, and associated costs will rise by £5.8 billion (in England) over an 11-year period.

Conclusions

Simulation modelling indicates that frailty prevalence and associated service use and costs will continue to rise in the future. Scenario analysis indicates reduction of incidence and slowing of progression, particularly before the age of 65, has potential to substantially reduce future service use and costs, but reducing unplanned admissions in frail older people has a more modest impact. Study outputs will be collated into a commissioning toolkit, comprising guidance on drivers of frailty-related demand and simulation model outputs.

Study registration

This study is registered as NCT04139278 www.clinicaltrials.gov.

Funding

This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health and Social Care Delivery Research programme (NIHR award ref: 16/116/43) and is published in full in Health and Social Care Delivery Research; Vol. 12, No. 44. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

The brain insulin receptor gene network and associations with frailty index

OBJECTIVE

To investigate longitudinal associations between variations in the co-expression-based brain insulin receptor polygenic risk score and frailty, as well as change in frailty across follow-up.

METHODS

This longitudinal study included 1605 participants from the Helsinki Birth Cohort Study. Biologically informed expression-based polygenic risk scores for the insulin receptor gene network, which measure genetic variation in the function of the insulin receptor, were calculated for the hippocampal (hePRS-IR) and the mesocorticolimbic (mePRS-IR) regions. Frailty was assessed in at baseline in 2001-2004, 2011-2013 and 2017-2018 by applying a deficit accumulation-based frailty index. Analyses were carried out by applying linear mixed models and logistical regression models adjusted for adult socioeconomic status, birthweight, smoking and their interactions with age.

RESULTS

The FI levels of women were 1.19%-points (95% CI 0.12-2.26, P = 0.029) higher than in men. Both categorical and continuous hePRS-IR in women were associated with higher FI levels than in men at baseline (P < 0.05). In women with high hePRS-IR, the rate of change was steeper with increasing age compared to those with low or moderate hePRS-IR (P < 0.05). No associations were detected between mePRS-IR and frailty at baseline, nor between mePRS-IR and the increase in mean FI levels per year in either sex (P > 0.43).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher variation in the function of the insulin receptor gene network in the hippocampus is associated with increasing frailty in women. This could potentially offer novel targets for future drug development aimed at frailty and ageing.

Primary and secondary care service use and costs associated with frailty in an ageing population: longitudinal analysis of an English primary care cohort of adults aged 50 and over, 2006-2017

BACKGROUND

Frailty becomes more prevalent and healthcare needs increase with age. Information on the impact of frailty on population level use of health services and associated costs is needed to plan for ageing populations.

AIM

To describe primary and secondary care service use and associated costs by electronic Frailty Index (eFI) category.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Retrospective cohort using electronic health records. Participants aged ≥50 registered in primary care practices contributing to the Oxford Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre, 2006-2017.

METHODS

Primary and secondary care use (totals and means) were stratified by eFI category and age group. Standardised 2017 costs were used to calculate primary, secondary and overall costs. Generalised linear models explored associations between frailty, sociodemographic characteristics. Adjusted mean costs and cost ratios were produced.

RESULTS

Individual mean annual use of primary and secondary care services increased with increasing frailty severity. Overall cohort care costs for were highest in mild frailty in all 12 years, followed by moderate and severe, although the proportion of the population with severe frailty can be expected to increase over time. After adjusting for sociodemographic factors, compared to the fit category, individual annual costs doubled in mild frailty, tripled in moderate and quadrupled in severe.

CONCLUSIONS

Increasing levels of frailty are associated with an additional burden of individual service use. However, individuals with mild and moderate frailty contribute to higher overall costs. Earlier intervention may have the most potential to reduce service use and costs at population level.

Association of frailty with the use of health services in older adults: a secondary analysis of the Mexican Health and Aging Study

BACKGROUND

Frailty has been related to adverse outcomes, but evidence on its association with the use of health services is still scarce.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this work was to determine the association of frailty with the use of health services in Mexican adults older than 60 years.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Analysis of the Mexican Health and Aging Study for the years 2015 (baseline) and 2018 (follow-up). Frailty was defined with the frailty index. The following outcomes were included: hospitalization, medical visits, major surgery, minor surgical procedures, and dental visits. Competing risk and count analyses (negative binomial regression) were performed.

RESULTS

A total of 8,526 individuals were included, whose average age was 70.8%; 55.8% corresponded to the female gender. According to the results, hospitalization days and the number of minor procedures were associated with frailty.

CONCLUSIONS

Frailty could be useful in the planning of health services for older adults. On the other hand, its evaluation would allow prioritizing care for those who are at higher risk of adverse outcomes.

Frailty in Late Midlife to Old Age and Its Relationship to Medical Imaging Use and Imaging-related Costs: A Longitudinal Study

Background Frailty, defined as an increased vulnerability to and impaired recovery from stressors, is common in individuals in late midlife to old age. While frailty predisposes individuals to adverse health outcomes and increased health care utilization, how it impacts imaging service use and related costs remains unclear. Purpose To determine whether frailty is associated with greater use of imaging services and higher imaging-related costs. Materials and Methods This longitudinal study included a subset of participants from the Helsinki Birth Cohort Study who were clinically assessed up to three times from late midlife to old age between August 2001 and September 2018. A frailty index (FI) based on 41 variables was calculated, and an FI of 0.25 or more indicated frailty. Associations of baseline frailty and its rate of change during the study with medical imaging service use and imaging-related costs were assessed using covariate-adjusted negative binomial and other generalized linear models. Results Of the 1995 participants (mean age, 61.5 years ± 2.9 [SD]; 1074 female participants) included in this study, 569 (28.5%) were identified as frail at baseline, and these participants underwent 10 677 (42.4%) of the 25 172 medical imaging examinations among the participants. Compared to participants who were not frail at baseline, participants who were frail at baseline showed increased use of all imaging modalities (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 2.28 [95% CI: 1.97, 2.64]; P < .001) and higher imaging costs (log annual cost, 3.26 [95% CI: 2.36, 4.50]; P < .001). Compared to participants with stable or slow change in frailty (<0.0010 FI units per year), participants with a rapid increase in frailty (>0.0064 FI units per year) from late midlife to old age showed greater use of all medical imaging services, independent of FI at baseline (IRR, 1.82 [95% CI: 1.53, 2.17]; P < .001) and had higher imaging costs (log annual cost, 1.62 [95% CI: 1.30, 2.01)]; P < .001). Conclusion The presence of frailty and its progression rate are associated with increased use of imaging services and higher imaging-related costs. © RSNA, 2023 Supplemental material is available for this article.